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Yepesnopes

dice pool outcome probability calculator

3 posts in this topic

Has anyone done a program, excel sheet, or similar that calculates the probabilities of success and/or possible outcomes of a given dice pool for SW EotE?

Cheers,

Yepes

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I haven't seen one. However, I was planning on doing some more detailed stat analysis than I had. I'll repost the averages… corrected from prior postings.

Die

Success

Advatage
Blue +8/24 +16/24
Green +15/24 +15/24
Yellow* +20/24 +16/24
Black -8/24 -8/24
Purple -12/24 -18/24
Red* -18/24 -16/24
White** W=16/24 B=16/24

* Includes Triumph/Despair as Success/Failure.

** No "Successes" nor "advantages"

-X successes are +X failures
-Y advantage are +Y threat.

 

More rigorously, tho, averages don't tell the whole story.

For example, since it's simple enough…

Force Dice example

1W 2 W 3w

oo 3/12 = 25.0%
o 2/12 = 16.6%
7/12 =  58.3% 

oooo 9/144 =   6.3%
ooo 12/144 =   8.3%
oo 46/144 = 31.9%
o 28/144 = 19.4%
49/144 = 34.0%

oooooo 27/1728 =   1.6%
ooooo 54/1728 =   3.1%
oooo 225/1728+ = 13.0%
ooo  260/1728 =   15.0%
oo  525/1728 =  30.4%
o  294/1728 = 17.0%
343/1728 =  19.8%

5/12 =   41.7%
• 6/12 = 50.0%

•• 1/12 =   8.3%

25/144 = 17.4%
• 60/144 = 41.6%
•• 46/144 = 31.9%
••• 12/144 =   8.3%
•••• 1/144 =   0.7% 

125/1728 = 7.2%
• 450
/1728 = 26.0%
•• 615/1728 = 35.6%
••• 396/1728 = 22.9%
•••• 123/1728 =   7.1%
••••• 18/1728 =   1.0%
•••••• 1/1728 =   0.1%

 

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