What beats a Nantex swarm? (tournament analysis)

[Cloaker 1,749]

3 hours ago, Sciencius said:

I also think there are going to be some interesting changes to the meta when the next wave arrives, I think that First Order are presently poised to become the next meta-monster.... (if they are infact not already), we might not need a points adjustment at all.

Eh, not sure that a medium base, 2 attack / 2 agility utility ship is going to be a difference maker for them, even with those crew options. Few crew carriers are really making an impact right now. It seems FO are always the bridesmaids of x-wing, just coming up short. 

 

Republic, however, yeah... Those new ships are going to open up their game alot. Seps too. Unfortunately it feels like the prequel trilogy factions have been getting all the cool toys and options in expansion releases. 

The Squadron packs for the OT factions and Scum need to be home runs. I'm honestly getting worried about Rebels as a viable game element, which sounds crazy to think.

The TIE Brute will not be enough for Imperials either, and we're likely to get TIE Bombers and Lambda re-releases next and they aren't the answer either. I think it's time for three Defender builds. In a Swarm heavy game, they won't be as OP as they were in 1e.

Yeah I just said that. 

[5050Saint 2,172]

8 minutes ago, Cloaker said:

The Squadron packs for the OT factions and Scum need to be home runs. I'm honestly getting worried about Rebels as a viable game element, which sounds crazy to think.

I'm really hoping on this. I don't share the sentiment that Rebel aren't viable, but these packs should be used to revitalize those factions. If Scum gets a Y-wing/Kihraxz pack, that's probably not going to cut it. StarViper + Something, A-Wing + Something, and Interceptor + Something, seem good routes to go.

[Cloaker 1,749]

39 minutes ago, 5050Saint said:

I'm really hoping on this. I don't share the sentiment that Rebel aren't viable, but these packs should be used to revitalize those factions. If Scum gets a Y-wing/Kihraxz pack, that's probably not going to cut it. StarViper + Something, A-Wing + Something, and Interceptor + Something, seem good routes to go.

Man, I love Kihraxz. I think they are better than x-wings because of the 1 turn and contraband. I'd be down for 2 Kihraxz and a Starviper. That set would SELL. As far as Rebels, apart from a couple of fringe lists, they just have lost most relevancy due to lack of AG3 ships that are competitive--we're firmly in a 3 agility, 4-5+ small bases meta for the most part. I'd argue that even an AG3 A-Wing for Rebels will not help their cause currently. E-wings having lack of double reposition hurt their needed role as well.  

For their squadron pack, we'll probably get 2 A-Wings and... maybe an E-Wing? I sure hope the HWK will be a standalone release with cross faction cards. It deserves a nice solo debut. Imps getting squints and a TIE Bomber seem legit. But no matter the models, it will come down to the pilot and upgrades, and of course, the costs.

[5050Saint 2,172]

The rumored name of Pheonix Cell has led us to assume A-Wings and something else Star Wars Rebels related, so likely B-Wing, Sabine's TIE, or the Attack Shuttle. I personally wouldn't expect a ship that hasn't already been released, so likely the B.

For Scum, if you gave me a Kihraxz/StarViper combo pack again, I'd take it. It's a bit much to ask for Thweek again, but I'd take him. Make him i0, but he becomes the initiative of someone he shadows, but once they are destroyed, he reverts to i0.

[Npmartian 1,182]

3 minutes ago, 5050Saint said:

The rumored name of Pheonix Cell has led us to assume A-Wings and something else Star Wars Rebels related, so likely B-Wing, Sabine's TIE, or the Attack Shuttle. I personally wouldn't expect a ship that hasn't already been released, so likely the B.

I'd actually quite like a Sabine's TIE upgrade, since the others seem just about fine where they are as somewhat niche support/filler ships and the B-Wing is absolutely thriving (although a prototype config would be nice). That poor ship just doesn't really have anything going for it at the moment, and I feel like some sort of Captured TIE-esque upgrade is what it needs. Obviously not the same thing since it was absolutely busted in 1e but some kind of unique trick in a vaguely similar vein.

[5050Saint 2,172]

6 minutes ago, Npmartian said:

Obviously not the same thing since it was absolutely busted in 1e but some kind of unique trick in a vaguely similar vein.

With the initiative on the TIE's capped currently at 3, it wouldn't be too bad to have the Captured TIE effect. Especially if we don't add the crew slot from the Masterpiece title. 

[Cloaker 1,749]

3 minutes ago, 5050Saint said:

With the initiative on the TIE's capped currently at 3, it wouldn't be too bad to have the Captured TIE effect. Especially if we don't add the crew slot from the Masterpiece title. 

I loved the Captured TIE effect. It was one of the most thematic and interesting designs of first edition, hands down. 

[Npmartian 1,182]

8 minutes ago, 5050Saint said:

With the initiative on the TIE's capped currently at 3, it wouldn't be too bad to have the Captured TIE effect. Especially if we don't add the crew slot from the Masterpiece title. 

That's fair. Maybe give it 1 or the other? A super cheap but super fragile crew carrier could be an interesting niche for it, and it lends a lot more validity to "leia+goodstuff" lists.

[svelok 6,487]

5 hours ago, Cloaker said:

I'm honestly getting worried about Rebels as a viable game element

what on earth

[Cloaker 1,749]

5 minutes ago, svelok said:

what on earth

I know, it's crazy right? How the times have changed. Only three pilots in top 50 for the year, none higher ranked than 34. Two chassis out of the top 30 ships in the game. No other faction has such low representation. 

https://meta.listfortress.com/pilots?ranking_start=2020-01-20&ranking_end=2020-09-15&large_tournament_multiplier=true&widespread_use_multiplier=true&use_ranking_data=all&tournament_type=&format_id=&

https://meta.listfortress.com/ships?ranking_start=2020-01-20&

[Schanez 285]

3 minutes ago, Cloaker said:

I know, it's crazy right? How the times have changed. Only three pilots in top 50 for the year, none higher ranked than 34. Two chassis out of the top 30 ships in the game. No other faction has such low representation. 

https://meta.listfortress.com/pilots?ranking_start=2020-01-20&ranking_end=2020-09-15&large_tournament_multiplier=true&widespread_use_multiplier=true&use_ranking_data=all&tournament_type=&format_id=&

https://meta.listfortress.com/ships?ranking_start=2020-01-20&

Rebels rely heavily on cross ship synergy. Once they start falling, it's a domino syndrome.

[Cloaker 1,749]

4 minutes ago, Schanez said:

Rebels rely heavily on cross ship synergy. Once they start falling, it's a domino syndrome.

Truth. It's also no coincidence that the faction with the least amount of AG3 Aces, that has some of its best higher initiative pilots stonewalled behind med/large bases in a swarm era iteration of the game, is chasing smoke right now. 

Edited September 15, 2020 by Cloaker

[Schanez 285]

7 minutes ago, Cloaker said:

Truth. It's also no coincidence that the faction with the least amount of AG3 Aces, that has some of its best higher initiative pilots stonewalled behind med/large bases in a swarm era iteration of the game, is chasing smoke right now. 

Hopefully the Phoenix Pack will move the A-Wing are of Rebels, with some neat I5s. Opening up alternative Aces for Rebels.

[svelok 6,487]

9 minutes ago, Cloaker said:

swarm era iteration of the game

what??

[Cloaker 1,749]

1 minute ago, Schanez said:

Hopefully the Phoenix Pack will move the A-Wing are of Rebels, with some neat I5s. Opening up alternative Aces for Rebels.

to this i say "AG3 I6 or no balls, FFG"

[Cloaker 1,749]

Just now, svelok said:

what??

Average ship count. It's kind of a thing right now

[svelok 6,487]

8 minutes ago, Cloaker said:

Average ship count. It's kind of a thing right now

73% of lists are four ships or fewer!! 86% five or fewer!

Edited September 15, 2020 by svelok

[Cloaker 1,749]

3 minutes ago, svelok said:

73% of lists are four ships or fewer!! 86% five or fewer!

Some data for reference;

The last year of first edition, out of the top 25 lists, the average ship count was 2.84 ships per list. And man, do I NOT miss those days

http://meta-wing.com/ship_combos?ranking_start=07%2F01%2F2017&ranking_end=07%2F01%2F2018&large_tournament_multiplier=true&widespread_use_multiplier=true&use_ranking_data=all&tournament_type=&

For 2020--but also for the majority of the last 18 months, we're at average 5 ships per list for the top 25 archetypes. The average list now has double the ship count for competitive play. 

https://meta.listfortress.com/ship_combos?ranking_start=2020-01-20&ranking_end=2020-09-15&large_tournament_multiplier=true&widespread_use_multiplier=true&use_ranking_data=all&tournament_type=&format_id=&

it is what it is

[svelok 6,487]

ok nevermind there's way way too much for me to unpack here I'm just moving on

[Cloaker 1,749]

20 minutes ago, svelok said:

ok nevermind there's way way too much for me to unpack here I'm just moving on

I'm sorry. But I love you too much for you to not see this also. I promise you, we'll get through this together. Rebellions are built on hope. 

 last year of first edition vs. 2020 2nd edition

1st ed last year of play top 25 archetypes;

2 ship- 9

3 ship- 12

4 ship- 4

5 ship- 0

6 ship- 0

7 ship- 0

8 ship- 0

2nd ed 2020 top 25 archetypes;

2 ship- 3

3 ship- 3

4 ship- 4

5 ship- 6

6 ship- 3

7 ship- 2

8 ship- 4

it's no wonder that the game's main low squad count, synergistic dependent, low agility faction like Rebels is crumbling right now. Too. Many. Arcs. 

this is where I go weep tears of fear in a corner that the Rebel Squadron Packs will have a screwload of Initiative 4 and like, 3 total init 5 pilots in ag 2 chassis

Edited September 15, 2020 by Cloaker

[5050Saint 2,172]

I'm going to agree with both svelok's "Rebels are actually good" AND Cloaker's "Swarms are the dominant archtype". 

[Cloaker 1,749]

8 minutes ago, 5050Saint said:

I'm going to agree with both svelok's "Rebels are actually good" AND Cloaker's "Swarms are the dominant archtype". 

Build me a Hyperspace Rebel list to go against 7 scyks with autoblaster. I'll run it tonight and pray

[jagsba 3,446]

9 minutes ago, Cloaker said:

I'm sorry. But I love you too much for you to not see this also. I promise you, we'll get through this together. Rebellions are built on hope. 

 last year of first edition vs. 2020 2nd edition

1st ed top 25 archetypes;

2 ship- 9

3 ship- 12

4 ship- 4

5 ship- 0

6 ship- 0

7 ship- 0

8 ship- 0

2nd ed top 25 archetypes;

2 ship- 3

3 ship- 3

4 ship- 4

5 ship- 6

6 ship- 3

7 ship- 2

8 ship- 4

it's no wonder that the game's main low squad count, synergistic dependent, low agility faction like Rebels is crumbling right now. Too. Many. Arcs. 

this is where I go weep tears of fear in a corner that the Rebel Squadron Packs will have a screwload of Initiative 4 and like, 3 total init 5 pilots in ag 2 chassis

Cloaker if you want to count avg ship count why go by avg ship count in archetypes instead of average ship count in events (and that's glossing over mean vs median vs mode)

For example. Imagine an event with 4 players:

3 dash ghosts, and 1 eight ship.

By meta archetype:

1 two ship

1 eight ship

Average ship count 5.

By list count

3 two ships

1 eight ship

Average ship count 3.5.

If I was at this event and was asked what the meta was like. 3.5 is far more representative than 5 for an event with 75% of the lists only having two ships!

If you insist on meta wing (which was it ever fixed for 2e?) you should be multiplying each archetype by number of lists played in that archetype. 

We also need to discuss filters and what time frames are appropriate for backing your hypothesis

[Cuz05 3,567]

12 minutes ago, 5050Saint said:

I'm going to agree with both svelok's "Rebels are actually good" AND Cloaker's "Swarms are the dominant archtype". 

Bold move, I like it.

[5050Saint 2,172]

2 minutes ago, Cloaker said:

Build me a Hyperspace Rebel list to go against 7 scyks with autoblaster. I'll run it tonight and pray

Hey, now. No changing the goalposts with that Hyperspace clarification. In anycase, I still might take that bet... not tonight though, I'm practicing versus Nantexans. Gotta get my game face on for Concord Dawn.