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Hiemfire

August Update: COVID-19 and FFG OP

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, ScummyRebel said:

Considering that it has already gone longer than expert anticipation, I’d say that your “not a fact” is somewhat contradicting yourself.

Any adaptation has been met with “no, that’s not responsible. How dare you want to do anything outside of your home.” So, not seeing where your belief in adaptations will be made when the fearful side is insisting that no progress be made because it’s such a “high” risk to do so. 

Making general statements about a nation that is almost 3.8 million square miles, has a population knocking on the door of 330 million, and consists of at least 50 distinct cultures, outlooks, and legal systems (and in reality far more than 50) is a bad idea.

Where I live, common sense precautions combined with a cautious reopening and, yes, continuing restrictions or bans on large gatherings are not met with the attitude you are describing.  I’m sorry your experience is different.

Some things won’t happen again for a long time (indoor movie theaters, getting to a Yankees game, playing in an X-Wing tournament).  Some of that is personal choice on my part.  I have an 11 week old son, and I choose not to roll those dice.  
 

And to the specific point you quoted, I didn’t contradict myself in the slightest. First of all, from the beginning the early estimates for a vaccine was early 2021.  Experts also agreed that getting the virus under control quickly required swift and decisive action and an extensive system of testing and tracing combined with shutdowns.  We screwed the pooch on that one, and here we are.  To see that the coronavirus will have longer lasting impacts than anticipated and then say “it’s here forever” is a conclusion unsupported by sufficient facts.  
 

Wild speculation and leaping to conclusions is something us nerds are awesome at, but when we are looking at real world problems well beyond our personal scope of expertise, maybe we should try and temper it a bit.

Edited by FatherTurin

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Something I think has been getting lost is that even if you are in a cohort that is less at risk of dying from this does not mean getting it will not be harmful to you. Being put on a ventilator is a bad thing even if you live through it. If there is a ventilator available to be put on. S

There was a kid healthy athlete who contracted myocarditis (spelling? a heart condition one gets from having a virus) and died from it. The Covid did not get him but the Covid got him. It is one of the risks that motivated the cancellation of many fall college sports.

I saw a story about a fit guy who got it and lost forty pounds from being in hospital. This thing is dangerous even when it is not fatal. We also do not know any of the long term issues getting this thing puts you at risk for. It is one thing to take a calculated risk but I do not think we are getting a good picture of the risks aside from it being potentially fatal. 

It isn't the odds. It is the stakes. 

And once more, effective public health measures are indistinguishable from panic over nothing.

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COVID-19 is truly a fearsome virus.  It can distinguish between a place that is serving 51% alcohol, beauty salons or funerals vs Walmart’s, airports or protests.  (Sarcasm intended)

 

I am all for safety; want me to wear a mask and wash my hands?  Be a decent human being and stay home when sick?  Fine.  But it gets really suspicious when you say no to this group but yes to this group. 

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Posted (edited)

What gets me are the masks... 🤣 pre-2019 the CDC says they are a slight protective measure at best and ineffectual against viruses due to the virus permeating the mask then you touch it and transfer, etc.... post-2019 it is the holy grail of life saving measure. 
 

Placebo, anyone? Give the peasants something to do so they feel like they’re helping?

 

Edit: this may be born out of my annoyance, I understand sometimes something is better than nothing. Just hate the preachiness. 

Edited by JBFancourt

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16 minutes ago, JBFancourt said:

What gets me are the masks... 🤣 pre-2019 the CDC says they are a slight protective measure at best and ineffectual against viruses due to the virus permeating the mask then you touch it and transfer, etc.... post-2019 it is the holy grail of life saving measure. 
 

Placebo, anyone? Give the peasants something to do so they feel like they’re helping?

 

Edit: this may be born out of my annoyance, I understand sometimes something is better than nothing. Just hate the preachiness. 

Mask are weak protection for you, but it keeps you from infecting the other people aroud you.
Since you can be contagious without knowing it, not risking infecting other people is important.
If everyone wears a mask, nobody is infecting anyone, it becomes effective.

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8 hours ago, FatherTurin said:

This is the most succinct, perfect way I’ve ever seen it described.  This should be Fauci’s sign off once he recovers from surgery.

Also this “effective public health measures are indistinguishable from panic over nothing.”

Frimmel your thoughts are needed out there, thanks for trying. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JBFancourt said:

What gets me are the masks... 🤣 pre-2019 the CDC says they are a slight protective measure at best and ineffectual against viruses due to the virus permeating the mask then you touch it and transfer, etc.... post-2019 it is the holy grail of life saving measure. 
 

Placebo, anyone? Give the peasants something to do so they feel like they’re helping?

Watch.  Learn.

(with a bit of luck this will be in simple enough visual terms for "the peasants" to understand).

Edited by FTS Gecko

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31 minutes ago, polmoneys said:

Also this “effective public health measures are indistinguishable from panic over nothing.”

Frimmel your thoughts are needed out there, thanks for trying. 

When the lockdowns were starting a guy was saying, "Look all that panic over swine-flu (or H1N1.) That was nothing. This will be nothing to."

My reply was, "It turned out to be nothing because they did something. It wasn't anything because they took it seriously before it was something. When public health precautions work it looks the same as panic over nothing because the same thing happens - Nothing. That's the entire point of taking the precautions. So that nothing happens." 

 

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29 minutes ago, Ccwebb said:

If masks, the t-shirt variety single ply mask, are so good for others, then why are jails letting prisoners go.  Just give them masks. 
 

why are gathering banded?  Just give them masks. 

Because although masks are effective for short periods of close contact, the risk increases greatly when a longer amount of time is spent in close contact, with or without the mask. After a long enough exposure (ex. several hours), even with a mask, it becomes dangerous if one person is infected. Large gatherings are banned as well due to the higher number of people making it more likely that an infection will spread and influencing more people when it does.

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10 minutes ago, Npmartian said:

Because although masks are effective for short periods of close contact, the risk increases greatly when a longer amount of time is spent in close contact, with or without the mask. After a long enough exposure (ex. several hours), even with a mask, it becomes dangerous if one person is infected. Large gatherings are banned as well due to the higher number of people making it more likely that an infection will spread and influencing more people when it does.

Exactly.  Masks are a useful aid in helping to prevent transmission of the virus while you are out and about in public areas, but they're part of a series of measures, not the be all and end all.

To put this in X-Wing terms:

Darth Vader is good.  Darth Vader with Fire Control System, Supernatural Reflexes and Afterburners is better.

Maintaining social distancing when in public is good.  Social distancing while wearing a disposable mask and regularly washing or sanitising your hands is better.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, FTS Gecko said:

(with a bit of luck this will be in simple enough visual terms for "the peasants" to understand).

The reason masks have been so criticized is not that they don’t stop droplets.... it’s that any virus permeates a mask almost instantly. 

People touch their masks with their hands (studies say quite a bit more due to the mask than normal touching of face). 

People touch everything with their hands and transfer virus.... ergo.... a Walmart full of people wearing masks = almost nil protection due to the masks themselves. 

It’s like the blue gloves 🤣🤣🤣 I literally drive through the McDs where the attendant has touched a 100 people’s things then hands me mine 🤣🤣🤣 Don’t worry germs won’t grow on the color blue. 🙄

That’s why the CDC says don’t wear them. It’s better to wash/sanitize hands frequently. Something the blue gloves actually stops.

AND the whole exercise has NEVER been to avoid exposure! It’s been to delay exposure. YOU. WILL. BE. EXPOSED. TO. COVID. 

There’s also the fascinating example of the country (don’t remember) who took no measures. Was swept by the disease. Death toll took a SLIGHT bump. And now they have some of the lowest numbers due to essentially herd immunity. 

Just because there’s dissent on how to properly handle the process does not mean there’s ignorance on the other side. A different conclusion does not equal stupidity. 

Edited by JBFancourt

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No country has achieved herd immunity. That country suffered a lot of deaths, but it did not get the infection rate needed for herd immunity. Europe, in general, is taking it more seriously than others, so that would explain why they have it more under control. It also helps that they don't have a ******* death cult to deal with. 

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56 minutes ago, JBFancourt said:

There’s also the fascinating example of the country (don’t remember) who took no measures. Was swept by the disease. Death toll took a SLIGHT bump. And now they have some of the lowest numbers due to essentially herd immunity. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-strategy-high-death-toll-no-economic-gain-data-2020-7

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sweden-didnt-impose-a-lockdown-its-economy-is-just-as-bad-as-its-neighbors-who-did-2020-06-25

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

AFAIK They actually didn't do well. Could have locked down, likely similar impact on economy, and probably a lower death toll too. I'm no expert on the subject and exactly how it worked out, but it seems to me like a lockdown would have helped.

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1 hour ago, Npmartian said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-strategy-high-death-toll-no-economic-gain-data-2020-7

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sweden-didnt-impose-a-lockdown-its-economy-is-just-as-bad-as-its-neighbors-who-did-2020-06-25

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

AFAIK They actually didn't do well. Could have locked down, likely similar impact on economy, and probably a lower death toll too. I'm no expert on the subject and exactly how it worked out, but it seems to me like a lockdown would have helped.

If they had had total lockdown, the economic costs would have been even higher, as it is very export oriented. And it is far too early to draw conclusions, see second to last paragraph below.

The swedish mortality is now lower than the last ten years. UK lockdown did cost some 16000 extra dead, according to one study (people not going to medical treatment for other ailments timely(!) enough due to fear of Corona infection when going out or complicated to get the permission, people dying from household violence ( domestic violence increased 30% over many countries), depressions (lonelyness kills people, medically recognised) and suicides).

And while Sweden was not locking down completely, assembly of more than 50 were forbidden, all bars, cinemas, operas, leisure parks etc closed, no exhibitions, concerts or sport events. Many shops closed or very restrictive how many people allowed. Recommendation to only leave your house for essential reasons. Higher schools than 9th grade and all universities only online (while the country has very good online connections, and is very mobile/technic oriented). Closing the lower schools would have meant over 30% of health workers disappearing from hospitals  as they would have stayed at home to supervise their children (remember Sweden is very far ahead in gender equality and kindergarten is normal and practically ubiquitous, in most households both parents work and both are engaged caring for their childrem). Social distance reminders everywhere. And Swedes already normally dislike crowds and keep large distances most of the time. Stay at home with any symptomes was mandatory.

 

Many of the countries which had lockdown before, now start to accelerate in numbers again (just look at the current WHO numbers), and the democracies among them  now hardly can lock down again, there are already enough protesters. Sweden still could close, if required. Some spanish scientists said on monday that the hard lockdown there led to people overcompensating now with social "closeness" in the last weeks in Spain, leading to the current new explosion there.

 

Many countries closed down totally, including schools. Leaving education to be done by parents, or at least requiring parents to help. Far from all parents can do this. There is an american study saying that 4 month of school lockdown reduces later life income for these children by about 2,5%. While that is quite significant, not only speaking of that kind of economics here, but also: The single most important determinant of your life expectancy is your income. Poor people die early (shown in Covid as well, poorer people more afffected), so a lot of lifetime lost! In about 30-40 years we will see all effects of Covid and can draw conclusions what would have been the perfect strategy.

Keep social distancing, stay at home with symptoms, consider (right type(!) of, and correctly(!) used) masks in crowded situations, stay safe!

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Posted (edited)
On 8/25/2020 at 4:21 AM, ScummyRebel said:

...the cdc has walked back the asymptomatic infection and said that, surprise surprise, it is just not really happening the way they thought at first...

Turns out the CDC changing its recommendation was due to meddling from the Trump Administration

According to Dr. Fauci who was not present at the meeting due to surgery "I am concerned about the interpretation of these recommendations and worried it will give people the incorrect assumption that asymptomatic spread is not of great concern. In fact it is."

Edited by kris40k

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@Managarmr nicely stated.  
 

We needed to act fast when this first broke.  We didn’t know what it was.  
 

Now I find it funny, that according the CDC, that there has been zero cases of the Flu since January.  

 

The numbers now show us this is a very highly contagious virus.   So stay away when your sick.  It can only be transmitted by direct contamination; no need to wipe down grocery bags when you get home.  It has nearly 99.75% recovery rate.  https://www.webmd.com/lung/covid-recovery-overview#:~:text=Experts don't have,% and 99.75%.


This is a virus.  There is not a vaccine for the Flu, common cold, or any other viruses.  This will be with us forever now.  Let’s be adults and wash our hands, stay at home when sick. If a business requires a mask, wear a mask. But let’s stop living in fear over this.  

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Ccwebb said:

@Managarmr nicely stated.  
 

We needed to act fast when this first broke.  We didn’t know what it was.  
 

Now I find it funny, that according the CDC, that there has been zero cases of the Flu since January.  

 

The numbers now show us this is a very highly contagious virus.   So stay away when your sick.  It can only be transmitted by direct contamination; no need to wipe down grocery bags when you get home.  It has nearly 99.75% recovery rate.  https://www.webmd.com/lung/covid-recovery-overview#:~:text=Experts don't have,% and 99.75%.


This is a virus.  There is not a vaccine for the Flu, common cold, or any other viruses.  This will be with us forever now.  Let’s be adults and wash our hands, stay at home when sick. If a business requires a mask, wear a mask. But let’s stop living in fear over this.  

 

The article that you linked actually says.

"However, early estimates predict that the overall COVID-19 recovery rate is between 97% and 99.75%.

Not just the 99.75 number which is by far the lowest I have seen and have seen  worse estimates than 97% in scientific journals. Also, this is ignoring the growing data on long term health issues such as Mis-c in children and ARDS/other respiratory effects in adults

https://www.jpeds.com/article/S0022-3476(20)31023-4/fulltext

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916?fbclid=IwAR03Qbu8DsfISxRQs3744Aer8wV4XBMu44kYluFj0M8wOW4knkHJAJKhKng

Another problem is that this virus transmits BEFORE you know you are sick or that you will just not notice your symptoms. While the second is true for the flu the first is usually not. Also, instead of the 2 day average onset the flu has Covid-19 could be anywhere from 2-14. Your article mentions that too

"Not everyone who catches SARS-CoV-2 will notice symptoms. If you do get them, they may show up 2 to 14 days after your infection."

Which is why we need to limit large unnecessary social gatherings. This spreads way easier than the flu. We have ways of dealing with/mitigating the flu (such as  Tamiflu etc.)  that don't require the resources that COVID-19 does (Ventilators for example). 

I agree that we should all wash hands and wear masks whenever possible. We are lucky to live in an age where we can mitigate this to the extent that we have. If this were even 15 years ago it would have been catastrophic. 

There are flu vaccines and vaccines for plenty of other viruses like mumps or yellow fever. I would guess that Covid-19 will be like the flu where vaccines are annual but there is simply no way of knowing.

Once again though the lock down and other precautions are not to STOP the spread full stop. That was never going to happen in a country like America where people believe that doing whatever they want without any regard for the consequences is a constitutional right and patriotic duty. It was to slow it down so our infrastructure can still handle it and the rest of our normal day to day illnesses and injuries. Playing with plastic spaceships is just NOT worth the risk of spreading it.

Edited by Timathius

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11 hours ago, Ccwebb said:

Assuming this is correct (and, as @Timathius outlined above, it may very well not be), let's run some math.

There are 7.8 billion people in the world at the moment. Let's say we just sit back and let the virus do its thing, and it infects, say, 1 in 5, for a total of a little under 1.6 billion.

Do you how many people that 99.75% recovery rate leaves dead?

3,900,000.

And that's just direct deaths, excluding all of the people who will die from unrelated conditions that couldn't be treated properly because the public health systems of every country on the planet have been overloaded and collapsed.

I don't know about you, but that's more death than I'm prepared to have on my conscience.

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But...

People die.... from diseases.... that actually ARE preventable... and a flu killing people is sad, but will always be.

The “At-risk” will always be more vulnerable.

Our “something” does not stop those deaths. Again, NOTHING will prevent exposure, it’s about managing a curve NOT stopping exposure. 

Be reasonable, not fearful, not belligerent either (refusing to wear mask etc). 

Be polite, if someone is at risk and needs extra caution don’t judge or be a nazi about it just to prove your own beef. 

And always remember... in these trying times, you can count on Colgate! 🙄🤣

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