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Hiemfire

August Update: COVID-19 and FFG OP

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20 minutes ago, ScummyRebel said:

RIP anything outside of local communities.

If “until covid is gone” is the goal, then it will never be done. It’s here to stay like the seasonal flu.

Regardless of its efficacy, when people are provided with a vaccine, I imagine that things will return to normal. 
 

 

Have faith! 😁👍

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11 minutes ago, kris40k said:

I agree that it’s scary, but one confirmed case of reinfection out of 23,000,000 cases is statistically insignificant.  We all need more time and study to figure this thing out, and obviously there is no reliable data on how long vaccine immunities last.  And if we need boosters 2-3 times a year until the sucker is wiped out, so be it.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, FatherTurin said:

I agree that it’s scary, but one confirmed case of reinfection out of 23,000,000 cases is statistically insignificant.  We all need more time and study to figure this thing out, and obviously there is no reliable data on how long vaccine immunities last.  And if we need boosters 2-3 times a year until the sucker is wiped out, so be it.

I can see your point about one confirmed case, but there were already studies showing antibodies were not lasting and that this fact could impact vaccine development and naturally developed immunites. This just puts a proven case in the wild to what the data was already pointing to. 

Right now its hard enough to get everyone on board with a yearly flu shot. Getting COVID-19 boosters three times a year while a non-zero chunk of the US population believes its all just a hoax or a plot for Bill Gates to track you so the Democrats overthrow Trump...

...yeah. <_<

Edited by kris40k

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4 hours ago, kris40k said:

Or just risk accept that this is life now. Our ancestors didn’t hide from the world because of maybes (and before you say “but they didn’t understand disease”, they did at least understand they would get it from other people).

But, so many have put so much investment into the fear factor of covid that they can’t back out now without losing too much image, so double down it shall be.

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4 hours ago, ScummyRebel said:

Or just risk accept that this is life now. Our ancestors didn’t hide from the world because of maybes (and before you say “but they didn’t understand disease”, they did at least understand they would get it from other people).

But, so many have put so much investment into the fear factor of covid that they can’t back out now without losing too much image, so double down it shall be.

So true.   

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8 hours ago, ScummyRebel said:

Or just risk accept that this is life now. Our ancestors didn’t hide from the world because of maybes (and before you say “but they didn’t understand disease”, they did at least understand they would get it from other people).

Our ancestors also had an average life expectancy of between 30-40 years, so not sure that's a very good argument to make.  Maybe reverting to Dark Ages attitudes towards public health isn't the best of ideas?

Putting the lives of others at risk because you need your fix of rolling dice and plastic crack?  Personally I'd hope that the majority of people are better than that.

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28 minutes ago, FTS Gecko said:

Our ancestors also had an average life expectancy of between 30-40 years, so not sure that's a very good argument to make.  Maybe reverting to Dark Ages attitudes towards public health isn't the best of ideas?

Putting the lives of others at risk because you need your fix of rolling dice and plastic crack?  Personally I'd hope that the majority of people are better than that.

1. You naturally picked the worst of times out there. We’ve had expectancy all over the map.

2. There is nothing “dark ages” about accepting there are illnesses out there. Particularly illnesses with very low mortality rates. Nobody shut down over the H1N1 pandemic of 2009, and that virus stacked way more bodies than covid has managed to.

3. The comment has nothing to do with plastic crack; it’s a comment about everything else too. Any time you leave your home, you are taking a risk you get sick. If you are not sick, you are not risking anyone else’s life (the cdc has walked back the asymptomatic infection and said that, surprise surprise, it is just not really happening the way they thought at first).

My point is everyone has two options in life:

1. Accept this bug is out there like they’ve accepted the flu is out there, OR

2. stay locked up for eternity.

There is no option 3, unless option 3 is you decide to leave camp 2 for 1 eventually.

Covid is not going to go away. It may stop being reported on in the same quantity at some point, but it is out forever now.

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38 minutes ago, ScummyRebel said:

2. There is nothing “dark ages” about accepting there are illnesses out there. Particularly illnesses with very low mortality rates. Nobody shut down over the H1N1 pandemic of 2009, and that virus stacked way more bodies than covid has managed to.

False.

According to the high end of the US CDC's estimates, H1N1 killed a little over 575,000 people in it's first year of circulation. COVID has crossed 800,000 deaths this year, and we have a third of it left.

But sure, we should just carry on like nothing's wrong. Might be fun to take a shot at breaking the Spanish Flu's numbers.

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1 hour ago, DR4CO said:

But sure, we should just carry on like nothing's wrong. Might be fun to take a shot at breaking the Spanish Flu's numbers.

I sympathize with aspects of both views here.... Honestly, I probably lean towards a less government intervention route. But I’m not a nay-saying anti anything person either.....

Honest questions I shout into the void, no agenda, just my own pondering of current events:

1) Has anything been accomplished by the measures taken?

2) Is the very real price being paid been worth the benefit gained?

3) Is death the only enemy to fight?

I know both sides can answer these two different ways and the questions solve nothing.... just my latest pondering 🤷‍♂️

I will probably regret this post... but I’m bored currently lol 😝 

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2 hours ago, ScummyRebel said:

1. You naturally picked the worst of times out there. We’ve had expectancy all over the map.

2. There is nothing “dark ages” about accepting there are illnesses out there. Particularly illnesses with very low mortality rates. Nobody shut down over the H1N1 pandemic of 2009, and that virus stacked way more bodies than covid has managed to.

3. The comment has nothing to do with plastic crack; it’s a comment about everything else too. Any time you leave your home, you are taking a risk you get sick. If you are not sick, you are not risking anyone else’s life (the cdc has walked back the asymptomatic infection and said that, surprise surprise, it is just not really happening the way they thought at first).

My point is everyone has two options in life:

1. Accept this bug is out there like they’ve accepted the flu is out there, OR

2. stay locked up for eternity.

There is no option 3, unless option 3 is you decide to leave camp 2 for 1 eventually.

Covid is not going to go away. It may stop being reported on in the same quantity at some point, but it is out forever now.

1:  LOL, no, I didn't.  The average global  human  life expectancy was between the ages of 30-40 right up until the 1900's, when advances in medical technology and - shock, horror - public health care contributed to it increasing to over 70 years.  Do some research.

2:  No, there is nothing Dark Ages about accepting there are highly contagious and deadly illnesses out there.  What IS Dark Ages is pretending they don't exist, that they won't affect you (or the people who unfortunately end up having to interact with you), or acting like it's just another risk of everyday life, c'est la vie, instead of following the advice of medical professionals - people who actually know what they're talking about.

3:. That's a naive, uneducated and really dangerous opinion.  "If you are not sick, you are not risking anyone elses life" is a brainfart of utterly epic proportions in the current environment.  COVID-19 has been clearly shown to have a long incubation period and affect different people very differently.  You can pass the virus on before you yourself  develop symptoms.  You can suffer very minor symptoms but the person you end up infecting can end up in intensive care.  This pandemic is not something that can or should be brushed off.  By taking that viewpoint, you are not only putting yourself a risk but everyone in contact with you.  Again: research.

And finally, yes, there is an option 3.  There is quite clearly an option 3.  And unsurprisingly, it's far more sensible than the other two you're suggesting.  That is:  follow the advice of the experts and medical professionals.  Minimise the risk to yourself and others by being responsible in your actions and activities, social distancing, wearing a protective mask until an effective vaccine becomes widely available and the pandemic is under control.

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42 minutes ago, FTS Gecko said:

COVID-19 has been clearly shown to have a long incubation period and affect different people very differently.  You can pass the virus on before you yourself  develop symptoms.  You can suffer very minor symptoms but the person you end up infecting can end up in intensive care.  This pandemic is not something that can or should be brushed off.  By taking that viewpoint, you are not only putting yourself a risk but everyone in contact with you.  Again: research.

And finally, yes, there is an option 3.  There is quite clearly an option 3.  And unsurprisingly, it's far more sensible than the other two you're suggesting.  That is:  follow the advice of the experts and medical professionals.  Minimise the risk to yourself and others by being responsible in your actions and activities, social distancing, wearing a protective mask until an effective vaccine becomes widely available and the pandemic is under control.

You do realize that the study I cited the CDC walking back is the very study you are using i back your argument, right?

And your option 3 is equivalent to my option “stay locked away for eternity.” Spoiler alert: it mutates. There is already scientific data showing that it’s made changes since November-December, meaning your vaccine is not going to be effective. It’s going to basically be a flu vaccine: maybe it works maybe not. Depends on guess work of “the experts” (the same experts who have 30% efficacy or lower in the flu shot). 
 

Fact: covid is here to stay.

Everything else is arguments, opinions, and twisting each other’s words. How you deal with that fact is all that remains.

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@funwok I don’t think I ever said any of my judgments or “what to do about it” were facts. The only thing I stated as fact was that covid wasn’t going anywhere. From that fact alone, folks can choose opinions across the spectrum of what they’d prefer to do about it. 

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2 hours ago, FTS Gecko said:

1:  LOL, no, I didn't.  The average global  human  life expectancy was between the ages of 30-40 right up until the 1900's, when advances in medical technology and - shock, horror - public health care contributed to it increasing to over 70 years.  Do some research.

No dog in the overall fight, but this is a misleading statistic.  The average life expectancy was that low because the odds of living to see 1 were so low, and if you made that, reaching your teenage years was another accomplishment.  If you survived adolescence in these time frames, the likelihood of seeing 60+ was quite high.  It is not as though the average 25 year old was thinking they were about to keel over dead in the next decade.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, JBFancourt said:

 

1) Has anything been accomplished by the measures taken?

2) Is the very real price being paid been worth the benefit gained?

3) Is death the only enemy to fight? 

As a New Yorker and a new parent whose family has been affected by the pandemic in many ways (no deaths, knock on wood, but still awful effects), I would like to offer my answers to these questions:

1) Yes, categorically yes.  Once shutdowns started the case count plummeted.  We were able to avoid a complete collapse of healthcare infrastructure, which NYC and surrounding areas was heading for fast.

2) Again, yes.  I’m not going to get into a ghoulish debate over how many points in a stock portfolio a human life is worth.  However, if cases and hospitalizations rise to the point of collapsing the healthcare infrastructure (which is ludicrously fragile in the United States), then a cascade effect will accelerate illness and death not just for COVID, but for other, treatable injuries and illnesses.  And this isn’t just an issue in cities.  Rural areas have even less healthcare resources per capita, and those areas would be (and have been) ravaged by the pandemic.  
 

3) No, but it tends to be the one with the most finality.  Bear in mind that the nightmare scenario isn’t a huge number of deaths (which sadly we already have).  The truly terrifying events would be a huge number of people JUST SICK ENOUGH to require hospitalization and NOT dying.  Long term care for even hundreds of thousands of patients (to say nothing of millions) at the same time would obliterate the ability of hospitals to function.  The collapse of hospitals combined with an even higher death count would have a far more catastrophic economic impact than closures.

 

So don’t go to bars, maintain social distance, wash your hands, don’t lick doorknobs, and wear a **** mask.

If it does go on for much longer than hoped/anticipated (which, by the way, is NOT a “fact”), we will adapt and find some way to continue life and our ways of enjoying life.

Even playing with plastic spaceships.

Edited by FatherTurin

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35 minutes ago, FatherTurin said:

If it does go on for much longer than hoped/anticipated (which, by the way, is NOT a “fact”), we will adapt and find some way to continue life and our ways of enjoying life.

Even playing with plastic spaceships.

Considering that it has already gone longer than expert anticipation, I’d say that your “not a fact” is somewhat contradicting yourself.

Any adaptation has been met with “no, that’s not responsible. How dare you want to do anything outside of your home.” So, not seeing where your belief in adaptations will be made when the fearful side is insisting that no progress be made because it’s such a “high” risk to do so. 

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, ScummyRebel said:

Considering that it has already gone longer than expert anticipation, I’d say that your “not a fact” is somewhat contradicting yourself.

Any adaptation has been met with “no, that’s not responsible. How dare you want to do anything outside of your home.” So, not seeing where your belief in adaptations will be made when the fearful side is insisting that no progress be made because it’s such a “high” risk to do so. 

TBF its really not going on longer than experts anticipated.

 

Most experts came out of the gate saying it is going to be a long term thing and we needed to lockdown to stem the spread and avoid a massive spike our hospitals could not handle. What the media/ our current administration in the US said =/= what the actual experts said. 

 

Also, yes you really should be trying to tone down doing stuff in large groups of people. We still know so little about this virus, but what we do know is enough that we should be cautious and holding a 500+ person tournament whose purpose is LITERALLY to have people come from all over the world (including places that have the virus relatively contained because they actually locked down) is a horribad idea. 

Edited by Timathius

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