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ForceSensitive

Origins Game Fair Early Discussion

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Hello again all!😁

X-wing is returning to the Origins Show this year again, and I for one couldn't be happier. To that end, I thought we'd start a thread for it. Check in if your going, get some meta talk in if you want in prep, feedback to FFG on items about the event (we know they're reading along🤫), strategize your prize wall run, whatever!

Also, what are your thoughts on an 'officers club' bar Meetup after the event on Saturday?

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5 hours ago, RStan said:

This will be my first Origins. Wife and I are excited for the trip. 

Last time there was an SOS, a Michigan man won the thing.

Here's to a repeat of irony!

 

Anyways, the convention is great. You have the amount of vendors you'd expect from such an event, good bars/restaurants on the block, and a spacious center.

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normal flu is more of a pandemic every single year than coronavirus.

More people have already died this year from flu than coronavirus, both globally and in china. we're all gonna be fine.

They are extremely unlikely to cancel any events unless there is a direct outbreak where the event is happening

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54 minutes ago, Vontoothskie said:

normal flu is more of a pandemic every single year than coronavirus.

More people have already died this year from flu than coronavirus, both globally and in china. we're all gonna be fine.

They are extremely unlikely to cancel any events unless there is a direct outbreak where the event is happening

don't want to kill the vibe here, but how many people get the Flu in the states every year? CDC stats for the last 10 years are between 9-45million people with deaths of between 12-61 thousand, so roughly 1 in 750 that get the flu die from it

Currently there have been 159 USA citizens diagnosed, 11 have sadly died. that's a 7% Death rate. that's 1 in 14 not surviving if diagnosed. The Flu doesn't even come close to Carona Virus in terms of survival rates, I can only hope that the USA doesn't end up with this becoming completely widespread or I dare not think of the numbers that will lose their lives to this.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mace Windu said:

don't want to kill the vibe here, but how many people get the Flu in the states every year? CDC stats for the last 10 years are between 9-45million people with deaths of between 12-61 thousand, so roughly 1 in 750 that get the flu die from it

Currently there have been 159 USA citizens diagnosed, 11 have sadly died. that's a 7% Death rate. that's 1 in 14 not surviving if diagnosed. The Flu doesn't even come close to Carona Virus in terms of survival rates, I can only hope that the USA doesn't end up with this becoming completely widespread or I dare not think of the numbers that will lose their lives to this.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

You are comparing wildly different datasets.   We have 2 months worth of data, and most of the deaths were old folks with pre existing medical issues.

The chart you linked to gives a global mortality rate of 3%, half of what you claim.

Look up the Spanish Flu pandemic if you want things to be scary.  COVID19 ain't there yet.

Edited by Darth Meanie

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8 hours ago, Sithborg said:

Hope it is pandemic free

Me too.  BUT we're 4 months out from origins.  IMO No need to "panic" yet...

8 hours ago, CaptainJaguarShark said:

They put out a statement regarding coranavirus/covid19. They haven't announced a cancel yet.

https://www.gama.org/news/491202/GAMA-Statement-on-Coronavirus-2019-nCoV.htm

I'd still go if I was able to.

Gama itself is out in vegas..  big difference than here in ohio.

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I'm a local to the show venue so another little inside scoop on the virus thing. The Arnold Sports Festival is held at the same center every year this coming weekend and they've implemented some heavy moves for health safety. First, it won't be open to the public/spectators until the last day. Which is going to REALLY hurt the vendors but that's what they decided. And then the competitors/judges/support are going to have health screenings on entry. OSU hospital is going to be in charge of that and providing on site medical assistance. Some events have been moved to nearby venues to spread out the crowd as well. And to top it all off, attendees from five of the already most impacted countries have sadly been banned from coming. So, big moves.

It might actually be a bust, but oh well. Unfortunate because that event brings A TON of commerce to us. Origins is kinda close as I recall in attendance and money spent so I'll be really sad if it had to get similar treatment. Especially since I want going to even go this year until they announced the X-wing event. More importantly, like has already been said, it's still four months out. We'll just have to wait and see. 

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17 hours ago, pakirby said:

Have to be an active GAMA member to attend the show?

Nope! It's really focused as a trade show for the public. The developer and industry focused show is another event they do back in Cali as I recall? If you are a member I think you get a discount or something though? 

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4 hours ago, ForceSensitive said:

I'm a local to the show venue so another little inside scoop on the virus thing. The Arnold Sports Festival is held at the same center every year this coming weekend and they've implemented some heavy moves for health safety. First, it won't be open to the public/spectators until the last day. Which is going to REALLY hurt the vendors but that's what they decided. And then the competitors/judges/support are going to have health screenings on entry. OSU hospital is going to be in charge of that and providing on site medical assistance. Some events have been moved to nearby venues to spread out the crowd as well. And to top it all off, attendees from five of the already most impacted countries have sadly been banned from coming. So, big moves.

It might actually be a bust, but oh well. Unfortunate because that event brings A TON of commerce to us. Origins is kinda close as I recall in attendance and money spent so I'll be really sad if it had to get similar treatment. Especially since I want going to even go this year until they announced the X-wing event. More importantly, like has already been said, it's still four months out. We'll just have to wait and see. 

Yea, iheard all of that yesterday...  Sucks.

I've even emailed Gama to find out if there is any changes coming to origins cause of this, and have yet to get a reply.  IF i do i will keep you all updated.

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Posted (edited)

For what it worth Ive done conventions and faires for a living for 13 years and not once has one been closed for health reasons.  Tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning... sure. but in something like 240 individual events not one closure for health concerns. most cons represent millions in investment and potential revenue and people do not want to lose that. they'll sue the **** out of anyone who shuts them down without good cause.

The media like to sensationalize new strains of bugs because "its winter, you might get a cold!" doesnt sell.   Covid-19 is less deadly than SARS and the common flu by a wide margin.  you gotta remember that the data on the current outbreak outside China is focused among the MOST likely to die from it, Senior citizens, and the current vectors are groups of seniors forced to stay in close proximity with the infected.  that cruise liner was like Eros in the Expanse and they still only had 6 deaths.  6 deaths out of 2500 people trapped with the virus in its ideal conditions among the most vulnerable sample group imaginable.

I'm not saying it isnt a dangerous disease, just less dangerous than 24 hour news claims.   Remember when everyone died of west nile? or Bird flu? or Swine flu? of course not, that was exagerated. but Bat Flu is gonna getchya!

Edited by Vontoothskie

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31 minutes ago, Vontoothskie said:

For what it worth Ive done conventions and faires for a living for 13 years and not once has one been closed for health reasons.  Tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning... sure. but in something like 240 individual events not one closure for health concerns. most cons represent millions in investment and potential revenue and people do not want to lose that. they'll sue the **** out of anyone who shuts them down without good cause.

The media like to sensationalize new strains of bugs because "its winter, you might get a cold!" doesnt sell.   Covid-19 is less deadly than SARS and the common flu by a wide margin.  you gotta remember that the data on the current outbreak outside China is focused among the MOST likely to die from it, Senior citizens, and the current vectors are groups of seniors forced to stay in close proximity with the infected.  that cruise liner was like Eros in the Expanse and they still only had 6 deaths.  6 deaths out of 2500 people trapped with the virus in its ideal conditions among the most vulnerable sample group imaginable.

I'm not saying it isnt a dangerous disease, just less dangerous than 24 hour news claims.   Remember when everyone died of west nile? or Bird flu? or Swine flu? of course not, that was exagerated. but Bat Flu is gonna getchya!

While I don't know of any gaming/comic/anime/etc conventions being cancelled for covid 19 yet, there have been a number of tech conferences cancelled. Facebook and Google have both cancelled big events for this year. Of course, these events might have a larger expectation of international travelers at those conferences than our typical hobby conferences.

Looking up whether any hobby events have been cancelled so far, I did notice that a school district near Seattle has chosen to close for two weeks and move students to online learning during that period. I have to admit that seems excessive. 

Whether those tech conferences should have been cancelled is a little hard to judge, and I imagine they'd rather not look back in hindsight and then say they should have closed, rather than seeing it would have been okay to stay open.

The infected mortality rate of covid 19 so far has been higher than the usual yearly mortality rate of flu, at about 3.4% of those infected. Influenza is usually less than 1% a year of those infected.

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9 hours ago, Vontoothskie said:

The media like to sensationalize new strains of bugs because "its winter, you might get a cold!" doesnt sell.   Covid-19 is less deadly than SARS and the common flu by a wide margin.  you gotta remember that the data on the current outbreak outside China is focused among the MOST likely to die from it, Senior citizens, and the current vectors are groups of seniors forced to stay in close proximity with the infected.  that cruise liner was like Eros in the Expanse and they still only had 6 deaths.  6 deaths out of 2500 people trapped with the virus in its ideal conditions among the most vulnerable sample group imaginable.

 

Yea they do seem to be sensationalising it..  BUT that's the media for ya.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/5/2020 at 5:22 AM, Darth Meanie said:

You are comparing wildly different datasets.   We have 2 months worth of data, and most of the deaths were old folks with pre existing medical issues.

The chart you linked to gives a global mortality rate of 3%, half of what you claim.

Look up the Spanish Flu pandemic if you want things to be scary.  COVID19 ain't there yet.

It's getting there. Btw WHO upgraded from 2% lethality, to 3.4%, to 4.5%... lethality is way underreported. It's probably closer to SARS 9.6%(remember this is SARS 2.0, the virus is literally SARS-CoV-2). And without intensive care medical treatment lethality is closer to 20%. There won't be enough intensive care slots in hospitals to deal with all cases when the spread really gets going.

15 hours ago, Vontoothskie said:

For what it worth Ive done conventions and faires for a living for 13 years and not once has one been closed for health reasons.  Tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning... sure. but in something like 240 individual events not one closure for health concerns. most cons represent millions in investment and potential revenue and people do not want to lose that. they'll sue the **** out of anyone who shuts them down without good cause.

The media like to sensationalize new strains of bugs because "its winter, you might get a cold!" doesnt sell.   Covid-19 is less deadly than SARS and the common flu by a wide margin.  you gotta remember that the data on the current outbreak outside China is focused among the MOST likely to die from it, Senior citizens, and the current vectors are groups of seniors forced to stay in close proximity with the infected.  that cruise liner was like Eros in the Expanse and they still only had 6 deaths.  6 deaths out of 2500 people trapped with the virus in its ideal conditions among the most vulnerable sample group imaginable.

I'm not saying it isnt a dangerous disease, just less dangerous than 24 hour news claims.   Remember when everyone died of west nile? or Bird flu? or Swine flu? of course not, that was exagerated. but Bat Flu is gonna getchya!

Absolute bullcrap. Common flu death rate is 0.13%. SARS was 9.6%. This is SARS-CoV-2. Official numbers are still lower than SARS, but what Tencent leaked on feb 1 showed a 16% death rate(154k infected, 80k suspected, 269 recovered, 24.5k dead). Official numbers are very suspect(fraudulent). The crematoriums in wuhan have been running on maximum capacity(ca 1200/day) since the middle of january, they're just not bothering to confirm and add to the statistics.

 

PS: There's (at least) two strains, a milder S strain, and a more virulent and deadly L strain.

Edited by Cerebrawl

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19 hours ago, Vontoothskie said:

 

The media like to sensationalize new strains of bugs because "its winter, you might get a cold!" doesnt sell.   Covid-19 is less deadly than SARS and the common flu by a wide margin.  you gotta remember that the data on the current outbreak outside China is focused among the MOST likely to die from it, Senior citizens, and the current vectors are groups of seniors forced to stay in close proximity with the infected.  that cruise liner was like Eros in the Expanse and they still only had 6 deaths.  6 deaths out of 2500 people trapped with the virus in its ideal conditions among the most vulnerable sample group imaginable.

 

6/2500 SO FAR. This is a slow burn. It’s not like other stuff.  If this really breaks out expect clogged and unmanageable hospitals for several months. We barely have the equipment to cover a middle-of-the-road outbreak total. And we need that equipment for other sick people right now.

 

I’m more in the cost analysis than epidemiology field, but I work with people who do that work. They are the opposite of calm right now. 
 

The common flu kills tens of thousands despite us spending billions every year to stop it. If we had no vaccine it would be a nightmare. This stuff is worse.

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