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Roller of blanks

The Salt Mines

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This is it. 

The place to let all your salty tears pool around your feet until you're able to swim around in them.

Type in all caps.

Give the forum's auto-censor a run for its money.

Bessech your dice in a judgement free thread of self-pity.

I'll go first

Went to a store championship, played against a list with vader, marek, and 2 sienar specialists. I have luke, Thane, Dutch+proton torpedoes, and a grey squadron bomber with an ion cannon turret.

•opponent moves along his deployment zone, gunning for thane.

•thane arc dodges 3 of 4 arcs, however, they all lock him.

•next turn, a sienar pilot lands on a rock while trying to catch thane. My squad collapses in on it, and kills it. The other generic and vader have no shot, but Marek has a range three, obstructed, unmodded shot at luke (remember, he locked thane) he rolls 2 natrual hits, and I roll 4 blanks. Shields down on luke. Next turn, the furball starts. The remaining generic is at range one of all of my ships, except dutch, who has range 2 for a proton torpedoes, and has no defensive mods

•Vader overshot, has no shot

• thane shoots, 4 blanks, target locked+focus into 3 hits

2 evades, 1 damage

•luke shoots, target locked+force for 4 hits.

3 evades, 1 damage

•marek shoots, takes shields off of thane

•dutch fires proton torpedoes, 1 hit, 2 blanks, 1 eyeball. used target lock for 2 hits total

3 evades, 0 damage

•sienar specialist shoots at thane. 3 crits. Thane blanks out, thane gets a direct hit. Thane is dead.

All in all, I did 2 damage with 2 double modded 4 dice shots + 1 single modded 4 dice shot, and lost a full thane for my trouble. 

I want to know all your tales of dice that you've been to afraid to post on the forums!

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Yesterday. First shot of the game. His Soontir rolls 4 hits against my fifth brother, I roll only blanks. The chances? 1.5%

With my shots I had a 46% chance to remove his Soontir then and there, so I'd say I wasn't completely wrong to end up in that position. But I lost fifth bro, took a damage on my Soontir, and didn't even damage his. The game had 6 such situations where the 16% or lower event happened, and still ended almost for me.

Props to my opponent though, the game was in principle very fun. Just with the detail that I started with 150 vs 200 points... saltiest I've been in a long long time.

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My most recent: My jedi knight, range 3 obstructed from a Tie FO. Tie rolls 2 hits. I roll 5 blanks. Next round, range 3 from Tie FO. FO rolls 2 hits, I roll 4 blanks. Dead Jedi Knight.

Finals at a tourney last year: Im up on points with less than 5 minutes to go. Soontir behind a rock range 3. Tie Fighter rolls 1 crit. Soontir blanks, direct hit. Half pts on Soontir. I lose game by 13pts.

More salt?

My droid swarm vs jedi. Final round. I need half points on CLT ObiWan to live. I get 2 hits from range 2. My opponent rolls 5 blanks. I WIN! Oh wait, he rolled FIVE dice. Range 2 is 4 dice. He rolls again and gets 2 evades.

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Wiredin said:

RZ2 hiding behind a rock at range 3 from a tie fighter with focus and no shields left. Tie fighter shoots, has weapons disabled. rolls a crit. rolls blanks on defense. heroic.... into blanks again. crit is a direct hit. no more A-wing

That is so extremely unlikely that I would find it extremely difficult to believe if there weren't so many games played. 0.125*0.095*0.095*0.15 = 0.00017.

Chances of that are one in 6000. Congratulations, you won the universal jackpot.

But of course, there have been way more than 6000 rounds of attack dice thrown in second edition. Most well-experienced players have probably seen as many attacks in person. That makes this eventuality almost seem inevitable.

Strange how odds work: The more time you do something, the more likely that extremely-rare event is to actually occur.

EDIT:

This was assuming you didn't have a focus token. If you really did, the odds go down to 0.0000009 or literally one in a million.

Time to take on a death star

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Edited by ClassicalMoser

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Posted (edited)

Worse ive ever heard is my brother. At LVO he was 3-0. 4th round playing againat a droid swarm. He is winning and its near end of round. He puts vader BEHIND a gas cloud with 1 force.

Two droids attack at range 2. First droid rolls two hits. My brother rolls 4 eyeballs. Spends a force, takes 1 dmg.

Second droid attacks and rolls two hits. My brother rolls 4 eyeballs again. Takes 2dmg for half points on Vader.

Thats two droids firing at vader through a cloud and get half pts. My brother rolled 8 eyeballs in 8 dice. Crazy.

Funny thing is, he didnt use his last force to take a focus cuz he was behind a gas cloud and wanted to save his force. But if he did, he only takes two total dmg and wins the game, lol.

Edited by wurms

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19 minutes ago, wurms said:

Worse ive ever heard is my brother. At LVO he was 3-0. 4th round playing againat a droid swarm. He is winning and its near end of round. He puts vader BEHIND a gas cloud with 1 force.

Two droids attack at range 2. First droid rolls two hits. My brother rolls 4 eyeballs. Spends a force, takes 1 dmg.

Second droid attacks and rolls two hits. My brother rolls 4 eyeballs again. Takes 2dmg for half points on Vader.

Thats two droids firing at vader through a cloud and get half pts. My brother rolled 8 eyeballs in 8 dice. Crazy.

Funny thing is, he didnt use his last force to take a focus cuz he was behind a gas cloud and wanted to save his force. But if he did, he only takes two total dmg and wins the game, lol.

If he was behind aGas Cloud he should have only taken 1 total damage? Did he forget his free evade?

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Ronu said:

If he was behind aGas Cloud he should have only taken 1 total damage? Did he forget his free evade?

Only turns a blank, not a focus result. 4 focus twice means no gas cloud bonus.

That said, if it was the last turn, he definitely should have taken the focus. Saving force isn't for the endgame. I've made similar bad calls where I knew it was a long shot for my opponent to win so I ... let them? When you can guarantee a victory, you always should, even if the odds of losing are 1 in 100

Edited by ClassicalMoser

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It feels like I should have many things to contribute.  But I also tend to remember the times I go 2 rounds of attacks with 3x IG2000s and get 0 (yes not a single one) hits, but then forget the times when things go astronomically good.

I can say in my last 3 or so games the situation came up twice where I roll 3 attack dice, roll 3 crits, and opponent then rolls 3 evades.   But then if you actually do the maths the chances of rolling 3 evades are waaaay higher than rolling the 3 crits. 

 

I do fear the range 3 obstructed shots though.  They seem to do more damage than range 1 shots.  ;) 

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Last night, myself and a friend played a First Order-off. I had Avenger + 4 Zeta SFs, he had Daredevil Vonreg, Scorch and 3 Zeta SFs.

I had a miserable game of it. My friend consistently rolled well above average on his defence dice, which rendered my list toothless for most of the game, while my defence dice were remarkably poor. I rolled very few natural evades, or would roll one evade and the rest blank while sat on a focus token (which I'd held for the defence).

I know that these things can happen. But it is incredibly frustrating when they do. The laughable thing is my attack dice were fairly strong, my SFs reliably pumping out two hits (often naturally), which in normal circumstances would have put me ahead.

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So relating to the thread.... do you guys think its really better to know the odds when playing.

I'm relatively strong math minded. So I can usually quickly determine the odds of something good/bad happening.   

But it feels lately that this is just putting me in a bad mood when I believe things are going "below average".   I mean, the odds of rolling 3 crits are 1/512 yet we all see it happen against us right.   Or that 2 red dice coming from you at range 3 obstructed and both landing. Small odds, and yet, it happens.  I know it might just be my rotten mindset, but still.  Maybe if I didn't overthink the maths behind it all, and just rolled the dice and see where things lead I may be happier with my games.

 

So do you think in this case ignorance could be bliss? 

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41 minutes ago, Bort said:

So do you think in this case ignorance could be bliss? 

I don't think so. Because most often, it was really ignorance. To give a simple example: we somehow feel it's fair if my opponent rolls 5 natties on Fenn and I roll 3 natties on evades. Sure, I take 2, but that could have been a lot worse right?! But on the other hand, we both feel slighted if he only gets 2 hits, and I get only blanks. That's completely unfair, and I should have gotten more!
Yet the net result is the exact same, and pretty much expected if both have a focus, just a half damage too much when both are unwilling to spend the focus, and still just one damage too much when Fenn keeps his but the defender was willing to spend it. Those different conclusions are a part of that bliss, and I don't want that for myself.

In my story earlier in the thread, I wanted to know whether I was actually wrong to let that situation happen in the first place. And I think I was not: a 98.5% chance to survive and earning with that a 50:50 to take out his Soontir is at least an ok gamble. My only change would improve the 50% taking Soontir, but nothing to change the 1.5%.

The math tells me I wasn't wrong, at least not entirely.

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54 minutes ago, Bort said:

So do you think in this case ignorance could be bliss? 

I generally don't think about the 'hard' mathematical probabilities, and don't take time to try and calculate them. That's not why I play X-wing. By contrast, my friend (mentioned above) does try to keep a rough idea of the probabilities when he makes his decisions. He is very good at it, so it doesn't really impact the flow of the game. We're generally equally matched in our games, so I don't think that playing the probabilities grants too much of an advantage.

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