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MidWestScrub

[Blog] The Razor's Edge: The Viability of the Two Ship List.

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41 minutes ago, MidWestScrub said:

In this post, I discuss my thoughts on playing small ship count lists and the struggles I think they will have moving forward. Check it out here, and let me know what you think.

Good article! Makes sense. I haven’t done much 2-ship in 2.0, but I can see how it’d be a hard road. 3 seems like one of the magic numbers.

What’s your Guri of choice? Asking for a friend...

Edited by CoffeeMinion

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1 hour ago, CoffeeMinion said:

Good article! Makes sense. I haven’t done much 2-ship in 2.0, but I can see how it’d be a hard road. 3 seems like one of the magic numbers.

What’s your Guri of choice? Asking for a friend...

If I have plenty of points to play with:

(64) Guri [StarViper-class Attack Platform]
(6) Afterburners
(8) Shield Upgrade
(10) Advanced Sensors
(6) Outmaneuver
(10) Virago
(6) Adv. Proton Torpedoes
Points: 110

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I really think Advanced Sensors Guri is one of the most distortionary pilots in the game once you look past things that are just ("just") undercosted. We lived through Supernatural Reflexes and Adv Sens Guri is arguably worse! In the mirror, the Guri with the bid wins almost 80% of the time!

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3 hours ago, MidWestScrub said:

In this post, I discuss my thoughts on playing small ship count lists and the struggles I think they will have moving forward. Check it out here, and let me know what you think.

You kept mentioning people having problems flying against aces.  The reason people were actually having a horrible time is not that they were playing agaisnt aces, but that they were facing a pre-dial double reposition ace (bendy roll counts as double reposition).  Peope don't always like playing against Jedi or Imperial triple ace lists, but they don't just quit before the game starts, because they're playing a game.  AS Guri looks at stuff moving first and says "nothing you do matters".  That's why people quit.

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23 minutes ago, Biophysical said:

AS Guri looks at stuff moving first and says "nothing you do matters".  That's why people quit.

What you enjoy is always going to be subjective.  Playing against SNR Jedi or AS Guri, to me, is just a big game of cat and mouse.  I don't think it's easy for the Guri player.  If they get it wrong, or if you manage to limit her options, corner her or whatever, the game is essentially won in a turn.

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41 minutes ago, Biophysical said:

AS Guri looks at stuff moving first and says "nothing you do matters".  That's why people quit.

That's... quite an exaggeration of what she can actually do. If she gets stressed or uses Virago she doesn't get that AS reposition at all, and if she does take it, she has to land in R1 or forfeit her token. This Guri is 110 points, the equivalent of a Supernatural Vader or stacked RAC. This heavy and you should have plenty of arcs to spread out and catch her. She'll either be missing shots and still getting shot at, or she'll be trading shots, either of which favors you.

Also remember that the higher-initiative pilot has disadvantage when it comes to focus usage; she'll probably never use it on offense, and she sometimes can't use it on defense anyway, so it goes to waste. Meanwhile you have perfect information and can focus your attacks with abandon.

Guri is good. She's really good. But she's also quite fragile and depends very heavily on good play in order to shine. If you guess her dialed maneuver correctly, you can catch her. If you give her all bad options for positioning, you will catch her, and if you can just trade with her once in a while, you'll beat her. On average you'll have 2-3 arcs vs her 1, and that's assuming you're not ignoring her wingmate. If you're flying swarms it's even better (don't put them in a block; spread them out).

Edited by ClassicalMoser

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6 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Not in a constant bombardment!

Seriously, the sooner first player gets environment choice, the better.

Cool, so Guri gets to use her large bid to get her ideal environment choice and still moves after every list that doesn't bring an i5+. 

1 minute ago, ClassicalMoser said:

If you guess her dialed maneuver correctly, you can catch her.

unknown.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, Biophysical said:

Peope don't always like playing against Jedi or Imperial triple ace lists, but they don't just quit before the game starts, because they're playing a game. 

I haven't played much against trip aces, but I can personally attest that playing against double jedi doesn't feel like a game any more than Guri does. It's not a problem completely unique to Guri, though she's the most extreme example. 

That said, I don't think everyone has it out against all aces, just the ones that can fly circles around the majority of opponents, which also lend themselves best to two-ship success for that very reason. 

Edited by hydemalion

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15 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Guri is good. She's really good. But she's also quite fragile and depends very heavily on good play in order to shine. If you guess her dialed maneuver correctly, you can catch her. If you give her all bad options for positioning, you will catch her, and if you can just trade with her once in a while, you'll beat her. On average you'll have 2-3 arcs vs her 1, and that's assuming you're not ignoring her wingmate. If you're flying swarms it's even better (don't put them in a block; spread them out).

Yes, Guri is beatable with good flying but that's not easy for an average player if all your ships move before the Viper (imagine for casual players). I understand why people don't like this matchup. Sometimes it's an uphill battle and if you don't have more ships at the end it's almost impossible to win.

Guri is expensive but like SuperKylo (or Dash), has capabilities that in some matchups are very powerful and some players could see them as overpowered and npe.

 

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8 minutes ago, svelok said:

Cool, so Guri gets to use her large bid to get her ideal environment choice and still moves after every list that doesn't bring an i5+. 

unknown.png

 

 

Two arcs covers all that area pretty trivially, and you likely have 3 at your disposal. Easier still if you've blocked the final position of the dialed maneuver or have her in the asteroids where most of those barrel rolls aren't options anyway.

The three crazy options go away if she's stressed. If she's not stressing herself, turning around gets tricky and predictable.

I've flown her and I've flown against her. It's okay if you don't like her, but she's not OP and calling her NPE is pretty marginal. There's pretty reasonable counterplay against her in almost all decent lists.

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11 minutes ago, hydemalion said:

I haven't played much against trip aces, but I can personally attest that playing against double jedi doesn't feel like a game any more than Guri does. It's not a problem completely unique to Guri, though she's the most extreme example. 

That said, I don't think everyone has it out against all aces, just the ones that can fly circles around the majority of opponents, which also lend themselves best to two-ship success. 

I'd definitely lump double Jedi into the same boat at AS Guri.

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5 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Two arcs covers all that area pretty trivially, and you likely have 3 at your disposal. Easier still if you've blocked the final position of the dialed maneuver or have her in the asteroids where most of those barrel rolls aren't options anyway.

The three crazy options go away if she's stressed. If she's not stressing herself, turning around gets tricky and predictable.

I've flown her and I've flown against her. It's okay if you don't like her, but she's not OP and calling her NPE is pretty marginal. There's pretty reasonable counterplay against her in almost all decent lists.

Guri winrates, moving first -> moving last:

  • Ric Olie: 20% -> 67%
  • Kylo Ren: 14% -> 71%
  • Boba Fett: 44% -> 83%
  • Guri (mirror): 22% -> 78% 

This is a pilot that's fundamentally broken on a mechanical level, and Advanced Sensors is the reason. It's just Supernatural Reflexes - it's not like we haven't seen this before.

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35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

That's... quite an exaggeration of what she can actually do.

but people do look at her and quit tho? so it can't be that big of an exaggeration 

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

If she gets stressed or uses Virago she doesn't get that AS reposition at all,

virago is there solely for a shield. You don't stress AdvS guri

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

and if she does take it, she has to land in R1 or forfeit her token.

yeah, its advS guri, she picks a spot at R1 or a spot where she's not getting shot and doesn't need the token

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

This Guri is 110 points, the equivalent of a Supernatural Vader or stacked RAC. This heavy and you should have plenty of arcs to spread out and catch her.

your opponent's number of arcs isn't predicated on the amount of points in guri, those aren't connected in any way.

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

She'll either be missing shots and still getting shot at, or she'll be trading shots, either of which favors you.

or she'll be missing shots and not getting shot at, or not getting shot at and taking shots. if things only happened the way you're claiming, no one would fly her?

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Also remember that the higher-initiative pilot has disadvantage when it comes to focus usage; she'll probably never use it on offense, and she sometimes can't use it on defense anyway, so it goes to waste.

only if you let her get shot at

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Meanwhile you have perfect information

claiming the player going AGAINST advS guri is the one with perfect information is rich

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

and can focus your attacks with abandon.

but my arcs are spread out to catch her?

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Guri is good. She's really good.

I agree

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

But she's also quite fragile

the build listed is seven health behind three agility

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

and depends very heavily on good play in order to shine.

it depends on not stupid play at least

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

If you guess her dialed maneuver correctly, you can catch her.

AdvS says no

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

If you give her all bad options for positioning, you will catch her,

so I'm using my ships to cover arcs, block her pre move rolls and boosts, and her post move rolls and boosts, and still have the arcs to catch her

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

and if you can just trade with her once in a while, you'll beat her.

she's 7 health behind 3 agility, she's really not taking damage if your arcs are spread out to catch her.

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

On average you'll have 2-3 arcs vs her 1, and that's assuming you're not ignoring her wingmate.

that's not enough arcs for what you're claiming to be able to do

35 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

If you're flying swarms it's even better (don't put them in a block; spread them out).

where they're easier to pick off and can't do damage against a 7 health 3 agility ship

12 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Two arcs covers all that area pretty trivially, and you likely have 3 at your disposal.

sure, if you can just magically decide where to place those arcs. now do it again for next turn, and the turn after that, and the turn after that.

12 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Easier still if you've blocked the final position of the dialed maneuver

you... know how advS works right. she can change where the final position is by premovement positioning. and even if she doesn't. She can advS action, bump, get her ability for focus.

12 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

or have her in the asteroids where most of those barrel rolls aren't options anyway.

where she can hide behind gas clouds, and where your options for placing your arcs are more limited as well

12 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

The three crazy options go away if she's stressed.

why is she stressed?

12 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

If she's not stressing herself, turning around gets tricky

I promise the hard one plus a bendy roll isn't just a very weird sloop. 

12 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

and predictable.

you can do it either direction? how are you more predictable when stressed than when not?

12 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

I've flown her and I've flown against her. It's okay if you don't like her, but she's not OP

against anything moving before her, she do be

12 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

and calling her NPE is pretty marginal.

marginal must mean insightful and accurate in this context

12 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

There's pretty reasonable counterplay against her in almost all decent lists.

there's really not

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47 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

I've flown her and I've flown against her. It's okay if you don't like her, but she's not OP and calling her NPE is pretty marginal. There's pretty reasonable counterplay against her in almost all decent lists.

I don't believe for a second you've flown her well nor played against anyone who's flown her well.  You're armchair quarterbacking.

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@Biophysical and @svelok I recognize and agree and AS Guri can be a an NPE and an auto-win in some cases. With that being said, competitive players tend to take broken things, but most people don't take her. She's not doing well in the meta. Almost never really has in second edition. I've been playing her with AS for a long time and have never won much of anything when her. I would contribute that to me sucking at x-wing, but no one else really has either. With the exception of Phil GC (I believe) winning a hyperspace. 

I'm genuinely curious as to your thoughts on why that is, and hope that the lack of inflection in text doesn't make me come across as snarky. 

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10 minutes ago, MidWestScrub said:

With that being said, competitive players tend to take broken things, but most people don't take her. She's not doing well in the meta. Almost never really has in second edition.

I remember that Boba + Guri was one of the best squads at the start of the second edition.

At this moment, I think take an AS Guri in a squad remove a lot of competitive options and eat a lot of points. She is strong, but the squad lacks efficience.

Boba is still her best partner but Fenn compete for the slot.

She is almost broken, like SuperKylo, but doesn't fit well. That makes her balanced in the meta but not in the 1 vs 1 comparative.

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Oh how I dislike these discussions. They're generally unproductive as there's far more opinion than fact involved.

The problem is more with initiative and first/second player in general more than with AS Guri specifically. Objective play and/or 1st player choosing environment does quite a lot to counter that. I know that's not currently in plans, but with enough support for it, it's only a matter of time.

29 minutes ago, gennataos said:

I don't believe for a second you've flown her well nor played against anyone who's flown her well.  You're armchair quarterbacking.

"Well?" Okay, you got me. Probably not. As I've said before I'm not an OP player (that doesn't mean I'm not competitive or good though; I have beat regional winners with Guri in 2.0).

23 minutes ago, MidWestScrub said:

With that being said, competitive players tend to take broken things, but most people don't take her. She's not doing well in the meta. Almost never really has in second edition. I've been playing her with AS for a long time and have never won much of anything when her. I would contribute that to me sucking at x-wing, but no one else really has either. With the exception of Phil GC (I believe) winning a hyperspace. 

This is kind of what I'm getting at. It's true she's probably too strong against lists that don't have I6 or a big bid. That is true of a lot of ace lists though. If she really were stronger than Mace Windu, shouldn't we see her doing better? You can say it's because her wingmen aren't that good, but a) that isn't really true for scum anymore, and b) at least in the build you cited, there's only 90 points left for wingman and bid anyway.

32 minutes ago, jagsba said:

but people do look at her and quit tho? so it can't be that big of an exaggeration 

I can't say I've ever seen it happen or heard of that happening in real life. But my experience is admittedly limited.

32 minutes ago, jagsba said:

your opponent's number of arcs isn't predicated on the amount of points in guri, those aren't connected in any way.

This is false and doesn't make much sense. The percent of your list she represents is equal to the percent of your opponent's list available to counter her. 110 points of Guri has to be compared against 110 points of Jedi, or TIEs, or Kihraxzes, etc. Not against another individual ship; that's not a fair comparison. Sure she'll always win 1v1 against a lower-initiative ship; you should never let her get to that point (easier said than done blah blah blah I get it; if we keep changing the argument we never get anywhere). 

32 minutes ago, jagsba said:

yeah, its advS guri, she picks a spot at R1 or a spot where she's not getting shot and doesn't need the token

Again, you act like that's always an option, but it isn't. There are obstacles, there are other ships, and there are multiple arcs she has to avoid, and she already has something dialed in that she then has to work with. Your job is to make her choices harder. You can say that's not possible, but if that were true, she'd be seeing a much higher win rate than she is. I'm interested in empirical evidence rather than anecdotal experiences. Experiences are useful for determining NPE status (which I can grant in her case, but with the caveat that it is somewhat subjective) but not OP status, which is strictly objective.

32 minutes ago, jagsba said:

she's 7 health behind 3 agility, she's really not taking damage if your arcs are spread out to catch her.

If she's avoiding multiple arcs, she's generally not shooting. If she's getting shot at, she's leaning into her focus and not doing much damage herself. If you're shooting 3 focused dice at her 3 focused dice (which you will be as often as not) she'll be dying of attrition, slowly but surely. The competition is in winning the damage race, and it is a game you have agency in. Naturally this depends on your matchup, but if you don't have anything with I5 + Bid in your list, you probably have 4-5 ships total vs her and Fenn.

32 minutes ago, jagsba said:

why is she stressed?

The world's best Guri/Fenn player stresses her all the time (watch his plays or read about them; it's not many times per game but does happen). There are plenty of good reasons. You're oversimplifying by quite a bit again. Real games have obstacles, and unusual situations, and mistakes, and unexpected matchups, and poorly executed plans, and well-predicted maneuvers. You can't balance for how a perfect player plays on a perfect day.

32 minutes ago, jagsba said:

you can do it either direction? how are you more predictable when stressed than when not?

Block one and you can cover both ending positions with one arc. Third ship could be turning around or whatever and you're still ahead. This is why PhilGC does use her reds; you have to be unpredictable or you die, and sometimes that comes at a cost. It's all mind games, just like everything we love in X-Wing.

32 minutes ago, jagsba said:

against anything moving before her, she do be

Against any one thing moving after her? Um, duh? That's why she costs 110 points. She's not OP against three or four things moving before her though...

32 minutes ago, jagsba said:

there's really not

You can't just throw these blanket statements out there and expect to be taken seriously...

Edited by ClassicalMoser

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18 minutes ago, MidWestScrub said:

@Biophysical and @svelok I recognize and agree and AS Guri can be a an NPE and an auto-win in some cases. With that being said, competitive players tend to take broken things, but most people don't take her. She's not doing well in the meta. Almost never really has in second edition. I've been playing her with AS for a long time and have never won much of anything when her. I would contribute that to me sucking at x-wing, but no one else really has either. With the exception of Phil GC (I believe) winning a hyperspace. 

I'm genuinely curious as to your thoughts on why that is, and hope that the lack of inflection in text doesn't make me come across as snarky. 

It's the same argument as has been made about this kind of ship since 1.0 Wave 4 and Whisper.  Just because some things beat it, doesn't mean it's okay for a ship to dumpster 150% of its points in lower initiative ships.  It becomes such as binary result that you have situations exactly like you describe where people would rather not play than play against it.  Hoping your opponent is dumb is a very bad strategy and feels crappy to play for.  People don't want to play 3-5 lower initiative ships vs a Guri (or whatever) that will get away as long as their opponent doesn't screw up.  Opponents do screw up, it's just stupid to have to wait on that to win.

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