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ChahDresh

Grand meta-analysis-- what we can learn from one wild month of Extended

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On 9/8/2019 at 8:32 PM, WAC47 said:

58 out of 68 ships in the game (85%) made a cut!? That’s fantastic. 

One could say Extended has a more diversified meta.

Thing is with the Big 3 (Rebels, Empire, Scum) other than the new pilots in the card packs the only advantages they could get is upgrade slot and point decreases. Unless there is some new CW era ships or ships from non-aligned parties from the newer materiel. FFG is likely focused on getting the 4 newer factions within the same disposition of ship types that the big 3 have before adding more to their pool. That being said it isn't surprising that one of the newest factions Republic is doing so well as FFG's focus is getting all factions competitively viable, so they have gave the Republic an assortment of tools such as Athersprites with their requisitioning ability puts them on par with TIE Phantoms if not above. I predict that eventually the Republic will take over the Empire forcing FFG to use the fix all method they have reserved for all factions in case one gets too powerful and that would be a point cost increase on components that routinely see the top 8. It may be also possible that with the other 3 newcomers FFG might make another punishing one mistake releasing a ship that propels their faction to the top if the Republic doesn't unseat the Empire, of course that would likely bring the change of points correction even faster.

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On 9/15/2019 at 1:11 AM, Salsashark said:

MDGA

Make Dash great again!

Yeah, let's not. Thanks.

It'll happen eventually, of course, because sooner or later FFG will nudge him just a little too far. And then the forums will be flooded with shouts of "No! Wait, go back!" when everyone realises they don't actually want to live in a world where a 4-attack turret is better than niche.

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"58 out of 68 ships in the game (85%) made a cut"

While this heartens me to think that the meta is in a good place, I would be quite keen to how sharp the bell curve is if you take away the ships that only occurred once in the 154 lists that were assessed in this analysis.

Ideally it wont drop the number off significantly from 58/68 but it would be more enlightening should that number drop to something like 38/68 etc.

Edit: would also be interested to see what the median ship count is, as noted the swarms somewhat distort the average ship count. Im guessing its 3 ships considering the average was 3.9 but understanding the balace of list in that where the number ticks over from 3-4, i.e were 40% of the lists assessed 3 ship or less.

Edited by Mace Windu

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On 9/13/2019 at 8:07 AM, Polda said:

On the topic of making TIE Fighter generics cheaper... do we really need Howl + 7 Academies in the game? 

Howl needs a no-joke 6 point increase.

Also I really don't think Howl + 7 is mathematically superior to existing inferno swarms, though I'd prefer to just see less of Howl in general. More Iden, less Howl. Iden without Howl would be really cool (protecting Mauler or Scourge, anyone?)

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14 hours ago, DR4CO said:

It'll happen eventually, of course, because sooner or later FFG will nudge him just a little too far. And then the forums will be flooded with shouts of "No! Wait, go back!" when everyone realises they don't actually want to live in a world where a 4-attack turret is better than niche.

But the thing is: It's not niche; it's nonexistent.

I don't want Dash to be great, but I do want him to be playable by people with a high skill level. He's not and is absurdly, grossly, ridiculously, inexcusably far from being so. Look at data if you disagree. Tell me from you personal (SECOND EDITION) experience if you disagree. 2.0 Dash is a 100% DIFFERENT PILOT from 1.0 Dash. See my postings in other threads for more details.

Even if you never want Dash specifically to ever be playable again, what about the YT-2400 chassis in general? Who would ever, in any situation, pay more points for a Wild Space Fringer than for Rebel Han Solo?! It's just silly ridiculous. Even leaving aside the difference 5 initiative levels make, Han is mathematically stronger both on offense and on defense, he has another crew slot, he has action economy, and most importantly, he doesn't have a "Kill-Me" button the size of his Range 1 bubble. And even Han isn't broken, even though his potential for crazy combos is greater because he has more upgrade slots. The reason is that in second edition, maneuver choices and action choices actually matter, ESPECIALLY for action-starved large ships.

Edited by ClassicalMoser

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20 hours ago, Mace Windu said:

I would be quite keen to how sharp the bell curve is if you take away the ships that only occurred once in the 154 lists that were assessed in this analysis.

...

Edit: would also be interested to see what the median ship count is, as noted the swarms somewhat distort the average ship count. Im guessing its 3 ships considering the average was 3.9 but understanding the balace of list in that where the number ticks over from 3-4, i.e were 40% of the lists assessed 3 ship or less.

Nine ships were represented only once in my sample: TIE Punisher, TIE Aggressor, E-Wing (in a pair), Sheathipede, Ghost, Auzituck, YT-1300, YT-1300 (Resistance), and Starviper (in a quad Viper list). Even if you dismiss those as flukes, that still leaves 49 out of 68 ships represented-- 72%. Very nice. (Compare and contrast with major events like, say, 1.0 Worlds, in which entire *waves* would no-show.)

As for the median, you... actually almost nailed it! 41% of lists were 2 or 3 ships. Median was 4, which was also the mode, believe it or not. Resistance and Rebels in particular strongly favor 4-ship builds, while Republic, Empire, and Scum nearly split between 3 and 4. First Order strongly favored 3-ship builds. Separatists swarmed, of course. Lots of variety, all in all.

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The more important question; to what level and percentage have force using pilots permeated the lists that made the cut, by faction, and overall? 

 

Probably just my skewed perspective, but it seems like the Force has become the primary source of consistent success in 2.0 overall since the game went to 7 factions. As a primarily Scum focused player, this makes me worry for the long term competitiveness of the faction. Their illicits, (the upgrade that defines them) are not enough to contend. They can't really compete equitably with the other factions on the Ace front or beef or really even efficiency. 

So this means obviously that tugboats, stress giving mechanics, and tractor beams need to be considered for Scum.... yes? 

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22 minutes ago, Cloaker said:

The more important question; to what level and percentage have force using pilots permeated the lists that made the cut, by faction, and overall? 

68 out of 154 lists, or 44%, had at least one Force user. This number is driven largely by Republic, who only have four ships, one of which only has Force-using pilots, at 26 out of 32 lists. Empire is right there too, with the same number but a lower percentage (26/42)-- thank you Vader and Inquisitors, mostly Vader. Finally, First Order leans heavily on Kylo, in 12 out of 17 lists... though, again, four-ship faction, with Kylo the best pilot in one of those four ships (and another of those ships seeing relatively little play).

On the other hand, Scum, Separatists, Rebels, and Resistance *combined* to field four Force-users out of 63 lists-- three Lukes (Luukes?) and one Dooku.

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1 hour ago, ChahDresh said:

68 out of 154 lists, or 44%, had at least one Force user. This number is driven largely by Republic, who only have four ships, one of which only has Force-using pilots, at 26 out of 32 lists. Empire is right there too, with the same number but a lower percentage (26/42)-- thank you Vader and Inquisitors, mostly Vader. Finally, First Order leans heavily on Kylo, in 12 out of 17 lists... though, again, four-ship faction, with Kylo the best pilot in one of those four ships (and another of those ships seeing relatively little play).

On the other hand, Scum, Separatists, Rebels, and Resistance *combined* to field four Force-users out of 63 lists-- three Lukes (Luukes?) and one Dooku

Hmmm... great analysis sir and certainly quite telling. When measured in factional percentage (each represents 14.2% of the total of 7) and ship availability, the free mods afforded by the Force as a game mechanic look irresistible it appears overall. Force users, despite occupying such small percentages of available pilots and ships, recently and significantly define three factions from a competitive standpoint. 62% of Empire lists, 70% of FO, and a whopping 82% of Republic... despite having 25% of available ships in two of those factions having force pilots (now possibly buffered more by Y-Wing torps Anakin if he becomes relevant the way some expect.) 

As much as I hate to say it, Sun Fac Ensnare shenanigans, however NPE it might wind up feeling, might be vital to getting those 3 factions to break off their Force build dependencies. He'll keep Force Users honest when flown well, which we can expect the top players in the game to do. 

Still worried that Scum are going to have an uphill battle long term overall here though. A initiative 6 Scyk or MGT would have been at least somewhat cute. An initiative 6 Kihraxz can't really overcome the chassis limitations in regards to action bar, double repo, and agility (would just be Wedge-like in durability.) And with 2 of their Initiative 6s tied up in large bases Scum just can't compete with Force Ace-wing... as we see Fenn Rau not getting used to the same level as the other factions init 6s. 

Maybe The Mandalorian will give Scum some fresh competitive blood. Price down the Bounty Hunters to give them more prominence on the tables? But as it stands, Scum might be best destined for Epic and Thematic play long term. Unless Quadjumpers get a slight price reduction back down or there is the unlikely choice of a Starviper init 6.

What's wild is that Resistance is so viable despite their one force user not really being played at all and two of their available ships in their limited pool seeing nearly no play (the large bases.) 

Great recaps! Fun to speculate on this sort of thing. 

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15 minutes ago, Cloaker said:

Hmmm... great analysis sir and certainly quite telling. When measured in factional percentage (each represents 14.2% of the total of 7) and ship availability, the free mods afforded by the Force as a game mechanic look irresistible it appears overall. Force users, despite occupying such small percentages of available pilots and ships, recently and significantly define three factions from a competitive standpoint. 62% of Empire lists, 70% of FO, and a whopping 82% of Republic... despite having 25% of available ships in two of those factions having force pilots...

Still worried that Scum are going to have an uphill battle long term overall here though. A initiative 6 Scyk or MGT would have been at least somewhat cute. An initiative 6 Kihraxz can't really overcome the chassis limitations in regards to action bar, double repo, and agility (would just be Wedge-like in durability.) And with 2 of their Initiative 6s tied up in large bases Scum just can't compete with Force Ace-wing... as we see Fenn Rau not getting used to the same level as the other factions init 6s. 

Careful now. You're mixing statistics and it's dangerous. 82% of Republic lists had a Force pilot, yes, but it's not as if 82% of their ships had Force pilots, which is what you imply by dropping the "25% of their ships" stat right after.

It wouldn't do to say that the Force alone makes something competitive. After all, there are plenty of Force platforms and Force-capable pilots that aren't seeing play. To your point about the Republic having so many Force users, sure-- but keep in mind the small faction-itis in play here, as well as there being a grand total of one (1) other high-Ini ship worth a darn available to Republic. Ditto for First Order: there was only one fewer Quickdraw than Kylo, and Quickdraw wouldn't know the Force from a hole in the wall. 

I submit to you that there are several very good ships out there that use the Force. The Force is part of what makes them good... but only a part. You said that you were surprised that Resistance is doing so well without the aid of the Force. I suggest that this evidence-- and the similar potency of Rebels, Scum, and CIS despite their similar lack of Force pilots-- should temper your conclusions.

As for Scum, do you really think the lists that made cut here did so without having a chance against aces? The three major archetypes for Scum all boast galaxy-class disruption abilities that make aces very, very sad. Han and Dengar are paying for the sins of 1.0 for now, but Scum has never needed to play the ace game to beat aces.

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29 minutes ago, ChahDresh said:

Careful now. You're mixing statistics and it's dangerous. 82% of Republic lists had a Force pilot, yes, but it's not as if 82% of their ships had Force pilots, which is what you imply by dropping the "25% of their ships" stat right after.

I submit to you that there are several very good ships out there that use the Force. The Force is part of what makes them good... but only a part. You said that you were surprised that Resistance is doing so well without the aid of the Force. I suggest that this evidence-- and the similar potency of Rebels, Scum, and CIS despite their similar lack of Force pilots-- should temper your conclusions.

As for Scum, do you really think the lists that made cut here did so without having a chance against aces? The three major archetypes for Scum all boast galaxy-class disruption abilities that make aces very, very sad. Han and Dengar are paying for the sins of 1.0 for now, but Scum has never needed to play the ace game to beat aces.

Valid points. The train of thought here that I found intriguing is that on average 71% of those three factional list compositions DID have at least one Force User. That's certainly noteworthy. The stats do shake out as you're inferring; 41.5% of total lists of those 3 factions who represent 42.9% of the games 7 factions, had Force users. So it does indicate that it isn't a majority of the lists in the game as a whole. It just is for those 3 factions, to a larger than half their list's total value. That is something to note as well it seems. AG3 Force Users certainly appear to be good point fortresses in second edition. 

 

What was Scum's total cut and event win rate? If they're around 14.3‰+ then that bodes OK enough that a few tweaks are all that's needed maybe. They're at least proportionate hopefully. 

Edited by Cloaker

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On 9/15/2019 at 7:29 PM, DR4CO said:

Yeah, let's not. Thanks.

It'll happen eventually, of course, because sooner or later FFG will nudge him just a little too far. And then the forums will be flooded with shouts of "No! Wait, go back!" when everyone realises they don't actually want to live in a world where a 4-attack turret is better than niche.

Yeah. No. 

No Dash good plz. 

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16 hours ago, Marinealver said:

You know with this data, I believe we don't need Hyperspace format or rotations.

I think you could make that argument. From a strict faction balance perspective, it does not appear as if the younger factions need protection. Hyperspace and rotations can be defended on other grounds, of course.

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