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Orkimedes

Rebel Veterans - Efficiency Analysis

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A good write up, I enjoy these articles. A bit of a question on the CM-93, you rated it so low, and said critical is a bit of a waste on a unit who already surges, but wouldn't critical 2 insure that 2 hits go through heavy cover? Isn't it like a super version of Impact, or like a combo of that and blast? Good against infantry in cover and vehicles?

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Most of the time, there are at least 2 normal hits in the attack pool (on top of any crits) which will get cancelled by cover, rendering the difference between hits and crits useless. Sure there will be some occasions where it makes a difference but is it worth 31 Points. Maybe once vehicles come back to the meta.

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15 minutes ago, gothound said:

Ahhh so it's a timming step thing? Surge to crit goes through cover, but critical will be blocked first?

It isn't so much a timing thing as a results thing; suppose you are shooting into heavy cover and you get two hits and two surges.  Whether or not those surges are hits or crits, your end result is the same, because cover cancels the first two hits.

Don't get me wrong, it definitely makes a difference sometimes, especially on smaller dice pools.

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14 minutes ago, gothound said:

Ahhh so it's a timming step thing? Surge to crit goes through cover, but critical will be blocked first?

Not exactly. What he’s saying is that statistically you’ll be rolling enough hits such that there will be the hits taken away by heavy cover, so surge -> hit vs critical is not terribly meaningful because either way, the other hits you rolled are getting soaked up by cover.

The time critical is nice is if you roll nothing but the two surges, or only one other positive result and then the surges. Hence his “lowers the floor a bit” comments.

 

Honestly, I plan on buying one pack. I also plan on fielding both the mk2 and the vets, but I doubt the 93 will make the cut unless I have some serious point pitfalls.

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This is a very well thought out analysis that many will find useful.   I have some issues though, admittedly they are a personal case. - First any analysis like this that focuses on math doesn't jive with me.  Breaking down units to math and percentages isn't how I choose to play - I play what looks cool to me.  I feel it ruins the spirit of the game to choose which units you field based on a chart.  

- Second, again slightly math related, but my dice rolls NEVER correlate to these percentages.   I can roll an inordinate amount of blanks on rolls that I shouldn't, and some how pull off impossible rolls at other times.  In this way, the dice gods mock me.   Like Odysseus angered Poseidon, so have I angered Polyhedra..

All in all, you did a good job, but doesn't work for me.  While it is a quote that is specific to flying, I think there are many aspects that fit here:

You can learn all the math in the 'verse, but you take a boat in the air you don't love, she'll shake you off just as sure as the turning of the worlds. Love keeps her in the airwhen she oughtta fall down, tells you she's hurting 'fore she keens. Makes her a home.”

I feel the similar to Legion units.   No matter how many times people tell me Vader is bad, I still enjoy having him and he Does very effective things.  

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3 hours ago, That Blasted Samophlange said:

This is a very well thought out analysis that many will find useful.   I have some issues though, admittedly they are a personal case. - First any analysis like this that focuses on math doesn't jive with me.  Breaking down units to math and percentages isn't how I choose to play - I play what looks cool to me.  I feel it ruins the spirit of the game to choose which units you field based on a chart.  

- Second, again slightly math related, but my dice rolls NEVER correlate to these percentages.   I can roll an inordinate amount of blanks on rolls that I shouldn't, and some how pull off impossible rolls at other times.  In this way, the dice gods mock me.   Like Odysseus angered Poseidon, so have I angered Polyhedra..

All in all, you did a good job, but doesn't work for me.  While it is a quote that is specific to flying, I think there are many aspects that fit here:

You can learn all the math in the 'verse, but you take a boat in the air you don't love, she'll shake you off just as sure as the turning of the worlds. Love keeps her in the airwhen she oughtta fall down, tells you she's hurting 'fore she keens. Makes her a home.”

I feel the similar to Legion units.   No matter how many times people tell me Vader is bad, I still enjoy having him and he Does very effective things.  

There are lots of factors that go into why you put certain units on the table, and the setting in which you play and why you play has a significant influence on them.  Efficiency is just one component of evaluating the effectiveness or appeal of a unit.

If you like the look or feel of something and want to play it, don’t let math stop you.

That said, I think in an ideal world everything is both thematically interesting and competitively costed.  We don’t know the answer to the latter unless we look.

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I think it is definitely a good approach that they did not make Veterans too efficient by themselves. It might be a case where effectiveness outweighs efficiency.

If it turns out there are scenarios where you can trigger the fire support mechanic relatively reliable and with reasonable opportunity costs, they can deny a lot of area to the opponent.

No one wants to catch an attack of a Z6 squad, full Commandos or Fleets with a Medium Blaster. If there are ways to add aim tokens it would get even crazier.

Even two Medium Blasters next to each other or to a 1.4 cannon could be quite vicious.

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, M.Mustermann said:

I think it is definitely a good approach that they did not make Veterans too efficient by themselves. It might be a case where effectiveness outweighs efficiency.

 

If it turns out there are scenarios where you can trigger the fire support mechanic relatively reliable and with reasonable opportunity costs, they can deny a lot of area to the opponent.

 

No one wants to catch an attack of a Z6 squad, full Commandos or Fleets with a Medium Blaster. If there are ways to add aim tokens it would get even crazier.

Even two Medium Blasters next to each other or to a 1.4 cannon could be quite vicious.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, fire support is potentially a very powerful keyword.

I think the primary issue with the Vets and CM-93 is they are basically the same as Rebel Troopers with a Z-6, qualitatively speaking.  Either they are going to be more efficient, or they aren’t.  It would be different if they had some different range bands or other interesting keywords like suppressive.  Honestly I wouldn’t have minded impact instead of critical, because then their role would have at least been more clearly defined and differentiated with the Z-6.

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6 hours ago, That Blasted Samophlange said:

- Second, again slightly math related, but my dice rolls NEVER correlate to these percentages.   I can roll an inordinate amount of blanks on rolls that I shouldn't, and some how pull off impossible rolls at other times.  In this way, the dice gods mock me.   Like Odysseus angered Poseidon, so have I angered Polyhedra..

I think there's a misunderstanding of how statistics works here.  If you record a statistically valid number of data points I assure you the numbers will flush out.  Also remember that the odds of getting a certain result do not depend on previous results.  The dice don't know they've already rolled a value, so the chance in getting a hit on a white die is 25% every time you roll it.  If you roll that die 4 times it does not guarantee one of those rolls is a hit.

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@OrkimedesI agree with your assumption in your article that in most contexts they will probably be played naked as a utility unit. Defend is not a very good keyword, but it is still better than nimble.

Maybe it could also be worth it to flesh them out with specialist/HQ uplink, maybe also with binoculars. The ability to have two extra order tokens every turn plus a free dodge plus an aim from the binoculars plus maybe another aim by a Targeting Array on a 1.4 or a Medium Blaster could be worth the extra points. A 1.4 with an aim token next to a Medium Blaster with an Order Token is no joke.

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11 minutes ago, flightmaster101 said:

I think there's a misunderstanding of how statistics works here.  If you record a statistically valid number of data points I assure you the numbers will flush out.  Also remember that the odds of getting a certain result do not depend on previous results.  The dice don't know they've already rolled a value, so the chance in getting a hit on a white die is 25% every time you roll it.  If you roll that die 4 times it does not guarantee one of those rolls is a hit.

Yeah. There is no 100% on dice as long as they have blank sides. So I wouldn't expect to get the same results. Also, my red dice roll about 20% with surges, so I can't depend on that math at all. 

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3 minutes ago, ExplosiveTooka said:

I wonder how the math changes when you add in an aim or two? Four white with surge is better than six surgeless whites when you can reroll both. 

The difference is not enough to have an impact in terms of effieciency. The heavy weapon and the base unit is just too expensive for that. You pay for the fancy keyword and the access to the Medium Blaster, not for the dakka.

Edited by M.Mustermann

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40 minutes ago, ExplosiveTooka said:

I wonder how the math changes when you add in an aim or two? Four white with surge is better than six surgeless whites when you can reroll both. 

Add the average of everything you wouldn't reroll.  So a white die would give you .25 hits/roll with no surge, that is to say (0+0+0+0+0+0+H+C)/8.  So if i have an aim token it changes to (.25+.25+.25+.25+.25+.25+H+C)/8.  So 3.5/8 is 0.4375 hits per white die.

So if we take a Z6 for example we have 6 white dice.  That will produce an average of 1.5 hits (.25 hits/White die *6 white dice).  But if I have an aim token 2 of those dice have now altered their odds and my attack has 1.88 hits per roll (.25 hits/wd * 4wd + .4375 hits/aimed white die *2 aimed white die).  Two aims by the same math would change it to 2.75 hits per roll on  average.

Surge on a white die just changes it to (0+0+0+0+0+S+C+H).  So that is 0.375 hits per roll on average.  So for two or less dice it is better to have an aim than a surge.  For 6 dice (again to keep it consistent) a white die that surges will give 2.25 hits per roll. 

So if you do the math both an aim and a surge give you 1.125 hits/ roll and once you get 4 dice and above its better to have a surge than an aim.

 

(edited to add content)

 

Edited by flightmaster101

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7 minutes ago, flightmaster101 said:

Add the average of everything you would reroll.  So a white die would give you .25 hits/roll with no surge, that is to say (0+0+0+0+0+0+H+C)/8.  So if i have an aim token it changes to (.25+.25+.25+.25+.25+.25+H+C)/8.  So 3.5/8 is 0.4375 hits per white die.

So if we take a Z6 for example we have 6 white dice.  That will produce an average of 1.5 hits (.25 hits/White die *6 white dice).  But if I have an aim token 2 of those dice have now altered their odds and my attack has 1.88 hits per roll (.25 hits/wd * 4wd + .4375 hits/aimed white die *2 aimed white die).  Two aims by the same math would change it to 2.75 hits per roll on  average.

That's not how stats work. Good approximation but not quite right. 

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4 minutes ago, ExplosiveTooka said:

That's not how stats work. Good approximation but not quite right. 

Please do explain. 

Interesting you call me out as being wrong when you 'wonder how the math works'.  I'd love to see how the math does work.

Edited by flightmaster101

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27 minutes ago, flightmaster101 said:

Please do explain. 

Interesting you call me out as being wrong when you 'wonder how the math works'.  I'd love to see how the math does work.

You have to find the percentage of each possible first roll, and then from those, find the increase that a reroll will give you. For example, if you roll all hits your reroll will not add any damage. If you roll only one miss, it will only add half of expected. It's all complicated, which is why I'm not going to bother actually doing it until I feel like getting into the weeds

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10 minutes ago, ExplosiveTooka said:

You have to find the percentage of each possible first roll, and then from those, find the increase that a reroll will give you. For example, if you roll all hits your reroll will not add any damage. If you roll only one miss, it will only add half of expected. It's all complicated, which is why I'm not going to bother actually doing it until I feel like getting into the weeds

So according to statistical formulas:
the odds of success on any given roll: (n k)p^k(1-p)^n-k

on a reroll p+(1-p)p

I never said you would add any damage.  I've simplified it to hits/roll, and the amount of hits/roll increases with surges and aim tokens.  People have derived these possibilities, and the only thing that should trip people up is using non numerical representations for success.  Because of this expressing odds on these dice as hits/roll or shields/roll is more useful than x%.

I guess to put it another way, would it be worth rerolling if you didnt increase your hits/roll total?  Or would surges be worthwhile unless they increased your hits/roll?
 

Edited by flightmaster101

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1 hour ago, flightmaster101 said:

I guarantee if you recorded all your results you could.  The problem with human perception is we are cut deeply by failure so those bad rolls will stand out in our mind more than the good ones, and much much more than the average ones.

I have rolled 17 ones in a row across 5 different 20 sided dice..   I. Do. Not. Roll.  Well.   Except for a brief spurt of incredulously dumb luck - about once a month.  

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3 minutes ago, That Blasted Samophlange said:

I have rolled 17 ones in a row across 5 different 20 sided dice..   I. Do. Not. Roll.  Well.   Except for a brief spurt of incredulously dumb luck - about once a month.  

Have you checked your dice in salt water?

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