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Posted (edited)

Last night, @clontroper5 was keeping an eye on someone. He followed his target wherever he went.

FLPr04r.gif

Unfortunately, @clontroper5 also got whacked in the middle of the night--and so did his target.

@clontroper5 is dead. He was a Town Babysitter.

@Madaghmire is dead. He was a Mafia Goon.

Day 2 begins; you all have 48 hours.

@FortyInRed

@GhostofNobodyInParticular

@LTD

@Matt3412

@The Jabbawookie

Edited by Bertie Wooster
Added picture for humor's sake

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Ha!

Perfect outcome - well done clontroper5! Though if you were babysitting him I suspect you thought Mad was town and a prime target.

Then there were FIVE - and likely one scum among them.

It's not me, so one in FOUR. I like those odds!

 

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The Jabbawookie and I both voted for Madagmire, who turned out to be scum.

So either Jabba is scum and was voting Mad for town cred (unlikely, and risky in a small game) or he is also town.

So then I think there are three options:

FortyInRed - first game, unlikely to be scum unless the roles are truly distributed randomly. @Bertie Wooster?

GNIP - a very real contender as scum

Matt - also a very real contender

 

I'm happy for folks to give their own analysis - but I'm leaning towards GNIPs (I already have a reputation for picking on Matt).

 

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This is what I saw yesterday after review

 

Mad said he would vote jabba,

Repeated that he would vote jabba.

When he had the chance to vote and hammer jabba, he let the round go to time.

I think he knew jabba was his buddy

The cross vote from jabba is going to be his defense, I dont and wont believe it.

 

##vote @The Jabbawookie

 

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Wow.

Vell, that ist handy. I have gone over the records of the preceding day, und I think that we can largely clear LTD and Matt. It would be foolish for them to vote a comrade with so few likely mafia. However, I am still suspicious of Jabbavookie, as Mad did not vote him, despite promising to do so. I put Jabba at L-1, and Mad would have hammered him. There are two reasons vhy he wouldn't have done so:

1) he didn't vant to kill his comrade

2) he didn't vant to be the primary suspect if Jabba vas innocent

I find two less likely, as though both LTD and Mad claimed to be less than enthused by a hammer, Mad did promise to vote and could easily avoid suspicion in that manner. He also vas very accepting of Jabba's defense, vielleicht too accepting.

 

However, I concede that it is a far-fetched idea. I haven't any great support for it, but I haven't anything better, either. If LTD or Matt are the (in my opinion last) mafia, then they have taken an enormous risk that might pay off. If not, then we should look carefully at the interaction between Mad and Jabba, and Red's behavior.

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2 minutes ago, Matt3412 said:

This is what I saw yesterday after review

 

Mad said he would vote jabba,

Repeated that he would vote jabba.

When he had the chance to vote and hammer jabba, he let the round go to time.

I think he knew jabba was his buddy

The cross vote from jabba is going to be his defense, I dont and wont believe it.

 

##vote @The Jabbawookie

Vell, at least I am not alone in my suspicions. . .

 

@LTD I can assure you it is not I. Therefore, look elsewhere. If clon was a Babysitter in this small game, I doubt we have a doc, but ve may yet have a cop of some sort. If he can clear or condemn vone of the two main suspects, that would be handy. I don't ask him lightly to reveal himself unless he is certain that he can end the game, as he would likely die next day. Though, vith a cleared townie in the remaining 3, perhaps it is not too risky.

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6 minutes ago, Matt3412 said:

The cross vote from jabba is going to be his defense, I dont and wont believe it.

 

 ##vote @The Jabbawookie

Lmao yeah, if I were scum I’d totally push the likeliest D1 policy kill as a bluff.  Also, this would make both the D1 trains on scum, when D1 lynches are almost ubiquitous.

Either you’re overreaching as scum or you’ll learn the hard way when one of us dies.

##vote @Matt3412

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5 minutes ago, The Jabbawookie said:

 

Either you’re overreaching as scum or you’ll learn the hard way when one of us dies.

##vote @Matt3412

I love you, I March willingly to my grave for I know my innocence is true.

10 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Wow.

Vell, that ist handy. I have gone over the records of the preceding day, und I think that we can largely clear LTD and Matt. It would be foolish for them to vote a comrade with so few likely mafia. However, I am still suspicious of Jabbavookie, as Mad did not vote him, despite promising to do so. I put Jabba at L-1, and Mad would have hammered him. There are two reasons vhy he wouldn't have done so:

1) he didn't vant to kill his comrade

2) he didn't vant to be the primary suspect if Jabba vas innocent

I find two less likely, as though both LTD and Mad claimed to be less than enthused by a hammer, Mad did promise to vote and could easily avoid suspicion in that manner. He also vas very accepting of Jabba's defense, vielleicht too accepting.

 

However, I concede that it is a far-fetched idea. I haven't any great support for it, but I haven't anything better, either. If LTD or Matt are the (in my opinion last) mafia, then they have taken an enormous risk that might pay off. If not, then we should look carefully at the interaction between Mad and Jabba, and Red's behavior.

This confused me LTD and jabba voted for mad, I did not... [in bold]

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7 minutes ago, Matt3412 said:

I love you, I March willingly to my grave for I know my innocence is true.

This confused me LTD and jabba voted for mad, I did not... [in bold]

Entschuldigung Sie mir bitte, I misremembered.

That does change my conclusion somevhat, as it vould be veird, as Jabba points out, for both trains to be on scum. However, it is not the first time, and Mad was a leader in a previous such ruse.

I am torn, because I agree that it is a stupid risk for scum to vote scum day one given the numbers. However, why was Mad protecting Jabba? That is what makes me suspicious of him. 

If he did it to throw us off the scent, he was good, but as he wasn't expecting to die tonight, he must have known he would answer for it today. So why do it, other thanhin the hope of brushing it off? It seems an unnecessary risk. . .

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##unvote @Matt3412

On balance, Matt, I think you are simply being foolish.  And innocent or not, there should be no pride in that.  You being scum is certainly still possible, but this is how you’ve played town in past.  I’ll decide after this game whether your strategy makes you my new policy lynch.

That said, it’s good to have some reactions.

I have no reference on Forty yet to judge newbie from nervous scum.

Even though history has shown LTD to be skilled scum, and he’s sat back so far aside from the Mads vote, he’s not topping my list right now.  First vote on Mads after Mads would be a somewhat safer ruse for him to try, but again, a D1 train for Mads isn’t too hard to get rolling.  Leading a kill on scum D1 could then net huge credit, perhaps enough to win with only 5 other players left.  Spicy, but unlikely.

GNIPs’ wavery “I’m torn” stance reads shady to me.  Because he could easily jump on my train off that post, defend me later, or leave things be entirely.  How nice for him.  He also put me at L-1 instead of Mads.

Right now, ##vote @GhostofNobodyInParticular.

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3 hours ago, The Jabbawookie said:

GNIPs’ wavery “I’m torn” stance reads shady to me.  Because he could easily jump on my train off that post, defend me later, or leave things be entirely.  How nice for him.  He also put me at L-1 instead of Mads.

Right now, ##vote @GhostofNobodyInParticular.

I am merely, as alvays, being honest. My gut is telling me you are clear, because you voted Mad. But my brain is telling me he spared you, and I cannot fathom why.

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8 hours ago, FortyInRed said:

Yep gee golly I totally understand all the words yer fellas are throwin round here. Not confused at all. We think the Jabbawookie is scum, right?

Vhat are you confused by? Basically, here's my take:

Mad promised to vote Jabba, but didn't, thereby sparing him. Ve know Mad vas scum, so vhy vould he care about a death of a townie? It would only have helped him. However, Jabba did vote for Mad, and that is a risk to do if he vere scum, as losing a partner Day 1 in such a small game (where the numbers imply only 2 scum) is a huge setback. As LTD did the same thing, they both are implied to be clear, which of course, settles the focus on the remaining 3 players.

On the other hand, though it is a huge risk, LTD and Jabba are both experienced enough players to get avay with offing a comrade Day 1, and Mad has been known to participate in similar deceptions in the past (where scum buddies vote each other, sometimes all game long). Thus, ve cannot rule out that LTD or Jabba are the scum, and out of those two Mad had a more protective relationship mit Jabba.

For me, out of you and Matt, it is more likely to be Matt, however I cannot rule you out.

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I think are current thinking is creating 2 very big holes for scum to wiggle around in for a few turns. [At least I'm guilty of this]

The agreed upon presumed innocence of LTD, through circumstance of a vote.

As well as the bubble of safety we are constructing around Forty for the time being.

Note this is just an observation and not meaning I feel they are suspicious at the moment. But I dont want to to build to far on these false[unproven] premises.

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3 hours ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

On the other hand, though it is a huge risk, LTD and Jabba are both experienced enough players to get avay with offing a comrade Day 1, and Mad has been known to participate in similar deceptions in the past (where scum buddies vote each other, sometimes all game long)

This is my concern. I think Jabba (or LTD) might be tricking us. They've both proven cunning in other games.

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3 hours ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

I am merely, as alvays, being honest. My gut is telling me you are clear, because you voted Mad. But my brain is telling me he spared you, and I cannot fathom why.

Maybe mad was trying to use it to create a town block with him in it. However with it being day one the only way he could have know jabba was innocent was because he was scum. [I.e. he would not have been able to fake claim cop so I struggle with this alternative line of thinking]

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18 hours ago, Matt3412 said:

Maybe mad was trying to use it to create a town block with him in it. However with it being day one the only way he could have know jabba was innocent was because he was scum. [I.e. he would not have been able to fake claim cop so I struggle with this alternative line of thinking]

It can still forge loyalty from the townie you defend, which is a valid strategy, especially in a small game.  Sociological plays are great tools for town and scum players alike, and I’ve caught Mads as scum that way before.

That said, as I know myself to be innocent, I think he was simply trying to sow confusion no matter what happened.  Even if the heat he’d catch from defending me could lead to his death, he might then implicate me for the next day kill, wasting a lynch.

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1 hour ago, The Jabbawookie said:

It can still forge loyalty from the townie you defend, which is a valid strategy, especially in a small game.  Sociological plays are great tools for town and scum players alike, and I’ve caught Mads as scum that way before.

That said, as I know myself to be innocent, I think he was simply trying to sow confusion no matter what happened.  Even if the heat he’d catch from defending me could lead to his death, he might then implicate me for the next day kill, wasting a lynch.

Sounds like trickery to me.

##vote @The Jabbawookie

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