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JediPartisan

Obi, now that’s odds

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1 hour ago, JediPartisan said:

I think you’re over complicating it. If there was no Critical key word an we were just dealing with a natural surge to a hit, you would gain 0.125 per die.

The Critical keyword only limits how many times that surge is applied and it should be as simple as adding that 0.125 a number of times equal to the number of the Critical keyword.

If you want to see this explained better, I think the Impact X website does a waaaaaay better job than I can.

https://www.legionimpact.com/blog/2018/6/10/never-tell-me-the-odds-swl-dice

I don’t think you understand what the .125 means? It’s the 1/8 chance of a specific die to roll a surge, not the entire set of dice.

If that die fails to roll a surge (7/8 chance), then the other dice could do so. 

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On 4/18/2019 at 9:56 PM, JediPartisan said:

Obi also can use a defensive surge in melee where Vader cannot.

I haven't seen anyone else mentioned it, but that's incorrect. Deflect still can be used in melee to get the defensive surge. Where Soresu has the advantage (a high ground, if you will ;) ) is the ability to inflict damage via surges in melee.

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1 hour ago, Shanturin said:

I haven't seen anyone else mentioned it, but that's incorrect. Deflect still can be used in melee to get the defensive surge. Where Soresu has the advantage (a high ground, if you will ;) ) is the ability to inflict damage via surges in melee.

It's an older meme but it checks out according to the rules.

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On 4/18/2019 at 8:08 PM, arnoldrew said:

I wouldn't take it on him. You need to be getting in position for a charge and possibly dodging, not wasting actions with ranged attacks.

I agree, given the more expensive clone troopers backing him up, I think you’re better off slapping on force reflexes and calling it a day. (Unless we get a new force power totally worth it on him).

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On 4/20/2019 at 12:25 AM, arnoldrew said:

I literally don't know how else to say it other than how I (and others) have said it, but you're wrong. I'm well familiar with the calculations on that page, as well as how the Critical X keyword functions. The information on that page does not account for the Critical X keyword since it didn't exist. You CAN'T just add 0.125 for the value of the Critical keyword and get anything close to a meaningful approximation, and we've explained why looking at the numbers will tell you immediately why that's wrong.

You DO gain 0.125 per die, except in the extremely small number of cases where you will roll more than 3 crits (less than 3% of the time). The discrepancy (0.5 damage is pretty big) between your numbers for Luke and Obi Wan's average damage should immediately tell you "oh wait, that's way too much difference than a tiny 3% chance to have less damage should account for."

Edit: I hope I'm not coming off as overly negative, I'm just extremely frustrated by my inability to communicate something to you that makes so much sense in my head but when the words come out they no do good.

Your doing a great job of explaining and you are correct. 

 

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On 4/18/2019 at 4:37 PM, JediPartisan said:

Each surge only gives + 0.125 which is the 12.5% chance of rolling 1 on a d8. So I think I’m right, unless I’m not seeing what your saying.

You were right. I failed to take critical into account on my first equation.

 It's pretty simple actually to account for critical when you think about it. Normally, you're figuring out how many "hits" you get from a single die. Critical will only allow two dice (that surge) to become hits, not the whole pool. Just add the two die faces (.25) to the total number of possible hits in a roll. The same way you did with individual dice. It could be seen like this as well to make things easier;

 

2x red dice (throw in the surges here)  - 1.75

1x Tenacity Die - .75

2x Black dice - 1.0

2x White Dice - .5

 

4.0 Avg Damage. 

 

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4 hours ago, crx3800 said:

Critical will only allow two dice (that surge) to become hits, not the whole pool. Just add the two die faces (.25) to the total number of possible hits in a roll.

Except those two faces are three times as likely to come up, since you can use those two faces on any of your six dice. 

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2 hours ago, SpiderMana said:

Except those two faces are three times as likely to come up, since you can use those two faces on any of your six dice. 

Yeah, he hasn't read any of the rest of the thread, lol.

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21 minutes ago, arnoldrew said:

Yeah, he hasn't read any of the rest of the thread, lol.

Nope, haven’t commented, but I’ve been reading. Thought I’d let you guys hash it out. Statistics are not my strong suit.😊

And why does everyone assume I’m a he?🤔 How sexist is that?😏

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2 minutes ago, JediPartisan said:

Nope, haven’t commented, but I’ve been reading. Thought I’d let you guys hash it out. Statistics are not my strong suit.😊

And why does everyone assume I’m a he?🤔 How sexist is that?😏

We werent talking about you, if you read the quoted text. Sorry.

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Even though his average damage will be on par with Luke's it seems like Kenobi's dice pool is going to be more consistently in the middle of the bell curve. The two white dice mean he is less likely than Luke to roll 5 or 6 hits, but the two red dice mean he is also less likely than Luke to roll 1 or 0 hits

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