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Article: Never Get Diced Again!

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Yea, good read. I can point future opponents using the standard go-to excuse of dice, to this article.  It is out of your control the final roll, so maximize the rest to give you the best probabilities.

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Well articulated.  It's something I've often tried to put across - no amount of dice-fettling abilities will ultimately help you on the day the dice gods decide you're going down, but that is not the same as "there's nothing I could have done".

Whether it's rolling a shedload of dice with 'just focus' or a smaller lump of dice with target-lock-and-force, there's still the potential for the dice to come up tilt.

Don't assume that on the day it does, you did it wrong, and don't assume that on the day a ship of yours decides to dance between the laser bolts that you did it right.  

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I can't agree more with the notion of determining if you made the right set of decisions regardless of the outcome. This is such a huge step to getting better. This is something I constantly look at myself playing tennis. Regardless of the outcome, did I choose the right shot for that situation.

A recent example for me was Vader (1 shield remaining) vs 2 X wings, behind him, but spread out. Having a lock on one, I chose the Talon Roll with an afterburners boost to arc dodge 1 of them, get into range 1 of the other X-Wing that had 2 hull left. Vader has a lock and 2 force vs his 2 die with a focus. I am a high chance of initiative killing him (87%), However he scrapes by with an inconsequential crit after rolling 2 focus results, with my force depleted. He then takes the shot back at my 4 health Vader and rolls 4 hits (he did have a lock, but didn't need it), Vader blanks and dies.

Looking at the odds, I felt I got it mostly right, take the (somewhat) aggressive play to take down this X-Wing, with a high expectation that I would only be taking the one shot even if it lived (albeit, highly modified). The odds of that outcome is quite low (like 1% when looking at the 13% chance the ship lives, and the 7% chance it can deal a killing blow) However, I note that I did leave myself open to variance in that instance. I was marginally down in points (totally mangled my early engagements) with Vader my only piece left, so it wasn't a defensive play (other than using offense as a defense). However, it also set me up well for the next turn to bug out as I would be up on points whilst the other X-Wing had to turn around. Was it worth it? I feel it was mostly correct looking at my choices, particularly as we were near time, and that kill secured me a points win.

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On 2/19/2019 at 3:44 AM, Magnus Grendel said:

Don't assume that on the day [the dice fail], you did it wrong, and don't assume that on the day a ship of yours decides to dance between the laser bolts that you did it right.  

Probably the most succinct way of putting that, thank you!

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I kind of find myself blaming the dice more often for wins than losses.  When I get bad dice in a negative way it just makes me think of what I could have done to get better shots and take less overall, but when I take a bad shot and it lands it makes it harder for me to tell how much of my success is due to my own play, and I start asking myself questions like "how would things have gone if I didn't get that lucky kill that turned the game in my favor?"

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