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Ophion

SSD best guess of release date?

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What have we been told? Q2? So that means fiscal year Q2 ranging from Jan-March 2019. Given the long production time, I'm going to say January or March. Neither of those have a holiday where you are obligated to purchase something (Valentines Day).

It wouldnt happen the first week of a month if its not a full week (looking at the broad release dates from video games to table top items), then not the second week as people would have spent most of their money on adult stuff. So the second paycheck time period and third/fourth full week makes sense. If as stated above that it mostly happens on Thursdays is correct (as you want people to buy the product and in the case of Armada, get the models on the tahle over the weekend to draw in more sales), then I will go with:

Jan. 17th or Mar 14th or 21st 2019.

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2 hours ago, Ophion said:

Some retailers sites say january 19 which seems a little soon.

Wave 7 was feb this year i think?

Just wondering what rate of savings i should unrealistically aspire to...

Do you eat lunch out every day? Or maybe stop for fancy coffee in the morning? Or stop for fancy coffee twice a day? Stop for beers after work? Or all of that?  Stop doing that. You'll have enough money by the end of this month. 

Including tax at full retail you're looking at approximately $216 for it. There are 25 days left in this month. That adds up $8.64 a day to get it on January 1st. Do you spend more than $8.64 a day on stuff you don't need or that you can do with less of or without for 25 days? 

Now change that to a more likely  and longer time frame like Ling27's Jan 17th which gives you 45 days meaning $5.14 a day. It is 57 days to Jan 31st meaning only $3.79 a day. 

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25 minutes ago, Frimmel said:

Do you eat lunch out every day? Or maybe stop for fancy coffee in the morning? Or stop for fancy coffee twice a day? Stop for beers after work? Or all of that?  Stop doing that. You'll have enough money by the end of this month. 

Including tax at full retail you're looking at approximately $216 for it. There are 25 days left in this month. That adds up $8.64 a day to get it on January 1st. Do you spend more than $8.64 a day on stuff you don't need or that you can do with less of or without for 25 days? 

Now change that to a more likely  and longer time frame like Ling27's Jan 17th which gives you 45 days meaning $5.14 a day. It is 57 days to Jan 31st meaning only $3.79 a day. 

For just $1 a day, you too can help these poor Imperials attempt to win a World's. Thousands of them have been left crying in their sleep, unable to close out the big match. Won't you help them?

"In the armmmmms offfffff an angellllllll...."

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I expect we will see it in early to mid March.

The better question is when can we expect Wave 8, if we assume the hosts of the [redacted to not violate forum rules - ed.] podcast are telling the truth and that it is three weeks into testing?  Playtesting a normal wave probably takes about 8-12 weeks, then I imagine it has to go through all the internal approval hoops before going to LFL/Disney for an external approval process.  I don't know how speedy LFL/Disney are about this, but I know Prodos Games have said that sometimes it takes months to get final approval back form 20th Century Fox on the AvP licensed game--and that's surely a much less meticulously curated property than Star Wars.  After all of that, it then can go into the production queue ("at the printers"), which is a couple more months before it's all packed up and loaded onto the slow boats from China, which typically take 2-3 months to reach distributors.

So my best guess is that, even if the Wave 8 rumors are true (50/50?) that would mean we're probably not looking at a Wave 8 release date until roughly 1st Quarter 2021.  Which means even after the SSD drops, it's probably, best case scenario, about another year's wait for new content?

Edited by AllWingsStandyingBy

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30 minutes ago, AllWingsStandyingBy said:

So my best guess is that, even if the Wave 8 rumors are true (50/50?) that would mean we're probably not looking at a Wave 8 release date until roughly 1st Quarter 2021.  Which means even after the SSD drops, it's probably, best case scenario, about another year's wait for new content?

1st Quarter 2021????  2021????

Oh man, for the love of Lucas, I hope not! 

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1 minute ago, richarDISNEY said:

1st Quarter 2021????  2021????

Oh man, for the love of Lucas, I hope not! 


That seems semi-reasonable, if we assume the ORJ hosts are telling the truth and that Wave 8 is like three weeks into playtesting.  Hopefully they are wrong, though, and Wave 8 has already been developed, tested, and approved.  I would expect that most waves would be just about wrapped up on the developmental side of things well before the previous wave hits shelves.  To wait until just before the SSD drops to start developing the next wave is sort of a weird choice, given that the SSD probably finished development a year or more ago.

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1 hour ago, Ling27 said:

What have we been told? Q2? So that means fiscal year Q2 ranging from Jan-March 2019. Given the long production time, I'm going to say January or March. Neither of those have a holiday where you are obligated to purchase something (Valentines Day).

It wouldnt happen the first week of a month if its not a full week (looking at the broad release dates from video games to table top items), then not the second week as people would have spent most of their money on adult stuff. So the second paycheck time period and third/fourth full week makes sense. If as stated above that it mostly happens on Thursdays is correct (as you want people to buy the product and in the case of Armada, get the models on the tahle over the weekend to draw in more sales), then I will go with:

Jan. 17th or Mar 14th or 21st 2019.

You give FFG too much credit for thinking through release dates.  They don't care, when it's ready it's ready and will ship.  They have never cared about hitting a holiday schedule or holding to any sort of time line.  The only consistency there seems to be for me is that when they do release it's on a Thursday, otherwise they don't care what month or week it falls.

With the exception on a Thursday Holiday, in the states Palpatine and Royal Guards couldn't be purchased until Friday in the US thanks to Thanksgiving.  Some stores sold them on the Wednesday before but I don't think they were supposed to.

Edited by Thrindal

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Q1 2019. Given their track record with Armada, they tend to hit late in the quarter. I don't think they'll go as far as Q2 late, but I really wouldn't expect it until March if you forced me to pick a date.

I have heard the Jan rumors, but I'm probably in agreement with @Truthiness that it'll be a post-Regional release.

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1 hour ago, geek19 said:

For just $1 a day, you too can help these poor Imperials attempt to win a World's. Thousands of them have been left crying in their sleep, unable to close out the big match. Won't you help them?

"In the armmmmms offfffff an angellllllll...."

Joke all you want (that is funny :-)) but I hear guys talking about how much things like the SSD cost or a conversion kit for 2nd Ed. X-wing or what have you cost and I wonder if they've ever put down what they spend every day and what they spend for a month.

Let's low-ball it and say $5 for a trip to fast-food for lunch on a workday. There are 8 work weeks till the end of January (starting Dec. 10th for this exercise.) 8 weeks times 5 days less 2 days for Christmas and New Year's Day for 38 days. $5 for lunch 38 times is $190. If you get coffee for $2 in the morning and that same $5 lunch... 38*$7 right? That's $266. Now throw another $64 dollars on top of that going out for two four dollar beers once a week -- $330. 

$216/8 weeks is $27 dollars a week. 

Obviously that isn't everyone's situation and some of the guys already don't eat out and are on tighter budgets. But a lot of guys complaining about not having enough money for the games they want probably haven't stopped and done the math and looked at what they spend and thought about whether they could give some or all of those things up. 

You still have to eat lunch of course but stopping eating lunch out (and drastically reducing eating out overall) was one of the best things I've ever done both for my pocket money and my waistline. 

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16 minutes ago, Frimmel said:

Joke all you want (that is funny :-)) but I hear guys talking about how much things like the SSD cost or a conversion kit for 2nd Ed. X-wing or what have you cost and I wonder if they've ever put down what they spend every day and what they spend for a month.

Let's low-ball it and say $5 for a trip to fast-food for lunch on a workday. There are 8 work weeks till the end of January (starting Dec. 10th for this exercise.) 8 weeks times 5 days less 2 days for Christmas and New Year's Day for 38 days. $5 for lunch 38 times is $190. If you get coffee for $2 in the morning and that same $5 lunch... 38*$7 right? That's $266. Now throw another $64 dollars on top of that going out for two four dollar beers once a week -- $330. 

$216/8 weeks is $27 dollars a week. 

Obviously that isn't everyone's situation and some of the guys already don't eat out and are on tighter budgets. But a lot of guys complaining about not having enough money for the games they want probably haven't stopped and done the math and looked at what they spend and thought about whether they could give some or all of those things up. 

You still have to eat lunch of course but stopping eating lunch out (and drastically reducing eating out overall) was one of the best things I've ever done both for my pocket money and my waistline. 

Sandwich and fruit every day, I'm right there with you. I luckily don't have to spend $200 on the thing, I just get to kill it.

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5 hours ago, Ophion said:

Some retailers sites say january 19 which seems a little soon.

Wave 7 was feb this year i think?

Just wondering what rate of savings i should unrealistically aspire to...

I will also say January 17/19. Why?

Because FFGC Regionals are January 26th.   They have a long and storied history of shaking the meta for their local tournaments (Ok, there's one data point that I'm aware of: They released Chimaera/Profundity the week before their store champs last time. But extrapolating from one data point is fun!).

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46 minutes ago, Norell said:

May the 4th?

That'd mean I'd be able to free up a few bucks from my income tax return... Or finally sell my motorcycle.

I think it's an expensive buy, period. Now I'm not saying it's a nice piece, but in my shoes, if I only manage to play a 3 game tournament every 2-3 months, does it make sense to drop that kind of coin? Being a father of a newborn means that my disposable income is better spent elsewhere.

Now if there is any bonuses at work this year...that's all disposable income. 😂

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well, whatever the true status, they didnt change the date for three months.  of course, I never tried to find out what „in development“ really specifically means, but either way, I am not surprised. just pointing it out as it is the 6th today. I was always hoping for January, but ok.

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I’d be curious to find out what status the ssd is in on the Spanish site.  They’ve been far more accurate for the last few months, at least for Legion releases.  Chewie skipped being on the boat and went straight to shipping now I believe. 

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