# 1-2 Turn Wins

## Recommended Posts

21 minutes ago, xbeaker said:

There are 6 registered decks that could theoretically pull this off. Wow would that be a demoralizing game!  "Um, Ok, I am first, I call Dis, I play a The Terror and gain 2 Aember.  Pass" "I call Untamed ... [yadd yadda] .. and forge my 3rd key.  Good game." lol

You still have to get obscenely lucky to do it though.  I can't even maths the likelihood of drawing 6 specific cards in your first draw, but I'm pretty sure it's 1 in millions..

I would love to see the game where the player with that Untamed deck gets that draw in their opening hand... and their opponent throws down Restriguntus and calls Untamed.

lol

(Though, having seen their opponent has Restringuntus they'd be stupid to keep a 6-drop hand so)

##### Share on other sites

You still have to get obscenely lucky to do it though.  I can't even maths the likelihood of drawing 6 specific cards in your first draw, but I'm pretty sure it's 1 in millions..

Isn't this just 36 choose 6?  SO it's 1 in 1,947,792 ? (If you only have 1 6-card hand that does it exactly)

Edited by Glucose98

##### Share on other sites
Just now, Glucose98 said:

Isn't this just 36 choose 6?  SO it's 1 in 1,947,792 ?

yeah, but (6/36)*(5/35)*(4/34)*(3/33)*(2/32)*(1/31) = .0000005134 or .00005134% chance! Then factor in it need to be 1 of the 6 decks out of 241,591 (at the moment I looked on the Vault) that is in that tournament, that deck has to win and get high enough to be on a stream.  And it is in that specific game in which it makes that 1 in 2 million pull! I mean those decks are likely lever going to get that draw anyway, but the odd of it happening on a stream are beyond my ability to calculate.

##### Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, xbeaker said:

yeah, but (6/36)*(5/35)*(4/34)*(3/33)*(2/32)*(1/31) = .0000005134 or .00005134% chance! Then factor in it need to be 1 of the 6 decks out of 241,591 (at the moment I looked on the Vault) that is in that tournament, that deck has to win and get high enough to be on a stream.  And it is in that specific game in which it makes that 1 in 2 million pull! I mean those decks are likely lever going to get that draw anyway, but the odd of it happening on a stream are beyond my ability to calculate.

the premise that decks entering worlds are completely random is very flawed. If we are going to go as far as use math to calculate odds, let's make sure we understand the problem correctly.one of those 6 cards is and "either or" with a 7th. One of those "either or" can actually be on the board before this turn, causing you to only need the combo of five cards. There are even more probable combos of these cards that merely get you 2 keys in one turn. But lets not pretend 2 keys by turn 2 isn't a game winner in itself. I am not claiming this combo is very likely of course. But if you are going to pretend to pay attention to the specific detail by writing out a math formula, let's get all the variables correct.

##### Share on other sites

Once someone draws their entire deck into their hand the game is over, even if it takes several turns.  They will have all the responses a massive board and probably keep the cards in their hand.

##### Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, msieder said:

the premise that decks entering worlds are completely random is very flawed. If we are going to go as far as use math to calculate odds, let's make sure we understand the problem correctly.one of those 6 cards is and "either or" with a 7th. One of those "either or" can actually be on the board before this turn, causing you to only need the combo of five cards. There are even more probable combos of these cards that merely get you 2 keys in one turn. But lets not pretend 2 keys by turn 2 isn't a game winner in itself. I am not claiming this combo is very likely of course. But if you are going to pretend to pay attention to the specific detail by writing out a math formula, let's get all the variables correct.

No deck contains both of those cards and the 5 others required.  There are 5 decks that have Full moon, 1 that has the witch (and the 5 other cards for the combo).  I did look if any decks had both.  And as the variables involved in getting one of those specific decks to worlds contains so many unknowns, it is effectively random.

And this was an example of a 1 turn win, so it cannot be on the board in advance.  Yes, there are more probable combos with less perfect results obviously.  But the whole point is that this is a 1 tun flat out win with nothing the opponent can do.

##### Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, xbeaker said:

No deck contains both of those cards and the 5 others required.  There are 5 decks that have Full moon, 1 that has the witch (and the 5 other cards for the combo).  I did look if any decks had both.  And as the variables involved in getting one of those specific decks to worlds contains so many unknowns, it is effectively random.

And this was an example of a 1 turn win, so it cannot be on the board in advance.  Yes, there are more probable combos with less perfect results obviously.  But the whole point is that this is a 1 tun flat out win with nothing the opponent can do.

ah, the parameters were a win in rd 1? That was unclear due to the title of the thread.

Edited by msieder

##### Share on other sites
3 hours ago, xbeaker said:

And as the variables involved in getting one of those specific decks to worlds contains so many unknowns, it is effectively random.

Not knowing the variables is not the same as it being random. I am sure everyone posting here owns at least one deck that is bad enough that they know it could never reach that level, and any deck that can go from 0 Amber and 0 keys to victory in 1 turn is going to have a much higher chance of appearing than most other decks. You also seem to be making a lot of assumptions about what can be found in a deck based off of what has already been found. I will run some numbers for you later if I have time.

On a more constructive note, these combos are the sort of thing I would love to see handled by the deck creation algorithm. Obviously, it is too late for this set, but they could announce the cards of the next set early. Then they could have a contest where you must submit an instant win combo to enter. The winners will be randomly selected, and will be awarded a free deck in the new set. Now they have a list that probably contains every possible instant win combo, and can prevent those decks from existing by adding a filters to the algorithm.

##### Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Revert said:

Not knowing the variables is not the same as it being random. I am sure everyone posting here owns at least one deck that is bad enough that they know it could never reach that level, and any deck that can go from 0 Amber and 0 keys to victory in 1 turn is going to have a much higher chance of appearing than most other decks. You also seem to be making a lot of assumptions about what can be found in a deck based off of what has already been found. I will run some numbers for you later if I have time.

I didn't look in the decks, and obviously haven't played them I am not willing to surmise that because it has a 1 in 2 million chance of pulling an instant win combo that it is either exceptionally strong or exceptionally weak.  Nor can I make assumptions about the owner of the decks.  The could play untamed exclusively, or they could refuse to play the deck on the very basis of knowing it has an instant win combo, or any number of things.  In the absence of all of this information, it must be treated as a random variable.

And of course none of this is constructive.  It is all just theoretical talk of possibilities.  And all in good fun.

On a related note though, I did run into what was pretty much an instant win deck tonight!  My opponent managed to get Foggify, Positron Bolt, Twin Bolt Emission and Reverse Time in his first draw.  He just kept playing them all for 4 Aember while killing any creatures I put out.  I'm sure there was some way I could have done some stuff with the exact right cards.  But I wasn't drawing whatever cards may have gotten me out of it, and when he was forging his second key on turn 4 I conceded.  It was an insane combo.  I have never seen reverse time used so effectively.

##### Share on other sites

You sure he played that right? Reverse Time doesn’t go to the discard pile until its effect resolves. So while the other three cards would become his deck, Reverse Time would be in the discard pile with all the rest. He could potentially redraw Reverse Time after the shuffle, but certainly not consistently.

##### Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Jeff Hannes said:

You sure he played that right? Reverse Time doesn’t go to the discard pile until its effect resolves. So while the other three cards would become his deck, Reverse Time would be in the discard pile with all the rest. He could potentially redraw Reverse Time after the shuffle, but certainly not consistently.

In all other cases I have seen action cards are played directly into the discard.  It there somewhere I can look that has it as a definite that the swap happens before Reverse time enters the discard?  It was a friendly game, so it didn't matter, but I would sure like to have that info on hand in case it comes up again.

##### Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, xbeaker said:

In all other cases I have seen action cards are played directly into the discard.  It there somewhere I can look that has it as a definite that the swap happens before Reverse time enters the discard?  It was a friendly game, so it didn't matter, but I would sure like to have that info on hand in case it comes up again.

From the rulebook:

When an action card is played, the active player resolves the card’s “Play:” ability and, after resolving as much of the ability as possible, places the card in their discard pile.

##### Share on other sites

Pit Lord could result in a First Turn loss if played without proper caution.

##### Share on other sites

These are the numbers that I promised for first turn wins. Keep in mind that the odds I am providing are for turn 1 wins (going second), but this combo still wins instantly if it takes you 5 turns to build it. The simplest version of this combo produces 2 more amber than you need, so there are probably even more variants on it. All references to Non-Untamed cards are Mavericks.

Base Combo: Full Moon, Dust Pixie 1, Dust Pixie 2, Chota Hazri, Nature's Call, Nature's Call

Full Moon and Dust Pixie 1 can be replaced by Hunting Witch.

Both Dust Pixies can be replaced by Fuzzy Gruen or Pitlord.

Chota Hazri can't be replaced

Nature's Call can be replaced by Total Recall or Hysteria

Max Number of cards in any deck:

Full Moon    5
Hunting Witch    5
Dust Pixie    5
Pitlord    1
Fuzzy Gruen    2
Chota Hazri    1
Nature's Call    4
Total Recall    1
Hysteria    1

Ideal Deck Comp (Several Mixtures produce the same results):

Hunting Witch  3

Dust Pixie  4

Chota Hazri    1

Nature's Call    4

Odds of 1st Turn win: 0.0077% aka 1 in 12,985 (the max 1 Chota is what gets you). So not likely, but a lot more likely than the previous numbers, which assumed you had no extra copies of cards in your deck.

##### Share on other sites

I actually just published an article about these sorts of decks so people can know what sorts of cards to look for when evaluating a combo deck. There are several other ways to effectively OTK without keycharge shenanigans, and as mentioned earlier sometimes you don't combo so you need a backup plan.

##### Share on other sites

Well that article title is totally biased and is counter to having a reasonable discussion.

##### Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Krashwire said:

Well that article title is totally biased and is counter to having a reasonable discussion.

I randomly opened the 2nd deck in the article and traded for the first one. Having jammed quite a bit with them I feel like it is accurate to call them degenerate combos. The decks might not be, but any time you can win the game on the spot as early as turn one or two, it's certainly not a fair combo imo.

Do I enjoy playing them? yeah for sure if my opponent knows that they are getting into, but it's really not healthy for casual or fun games. I wouldn't just play them without asking my opponent first

##### Share on other sites

Its really not fun play as or against a card that draw their entire deck into their hand.

FFG needs to changes to rule of 6 to make things reasonable in the future. It should be one instance for each time an effect triggers.

Drawing 6 cards is good, but not the end of a game.  I know this would overturn the resolution on bait and switch, but I think its better this way as keep combos from being abused. (Which I think is the point of the rule).  Bait and switch is still good even if you only steal 6 amber max.

##### Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dalek5 said:

Its really not fun play as or against a card that draw their entire deck into their hand.

FFG needs to changes to rule of 6 to make things reasonable in the future. It should be one instance for each time an effect triggers.

Drawing 6 cards is good, but not the end of a game.  I know this would overturn the resolution on bait and switch, but I think its better this way as keep combos from being abused. (Which I think is the point of the rule).  Bait and switch is still good even if you only steal 6 amber max.

I think the other nerf could be a hand size limit. Because the only resource in the game is how many of a house you have in your hand, I feel like this is where the degenerate status applies to effects that result in "infinite" draw. I like the part of the combo that lets you replay library access to accelerate your draws. I don't like the part that ends with the sum of cards in play and in hand is 36, because there are either too many decisions on the order to play things, or no more decisions at all, depending on your perspective.

(It's not as big of a deal, but I wouldn't mind a battleline limit either. Once it gets big enough, unless the opponent has a strong enough clear ready, you might as well call it)

##### Share on other sites
On 12/5/2018 at 10:04 PM, xbeaker said:

In all other cases I have seen action cards are played directly into the discard.  It there somewhere I can look that has it as a definite that the swap happens before Reverse time enters the discard?  It was a friendly game, so it didn't matter, but I would sure like to have that info on hand in case it comes up again.

Yeah, you wouldn't have access to the Reverse Time, that's what makes Nepenthe Seed + Reverse Time so very good.

Edited by debiant

##### Share on other sites
16 hours ago, saluk64007 said:

I think the other nerf could be a hand size limit. Because the only resource in the game is how many of a house you have in your hand, I feel like this is where the degenerate status applies to effects that result in "infinite" draw. I like the part of the combo that lets you replay library access to accelerate your draws. I don't like the part that ends with the sum of cards in play and in hand is 36, because there are either too many decisions on the order to play things, or no more decisions at all, depending on your perspective.

(It's not as big of a deal, but I wouldn't mind a battleline limit either. Once it gets big enough, unless the opponent has a strong enough clear ready, you might as well call it)

A strict battle line limits the potential of Sanctum and Brobnar, which are heavily reliant on their tanks sticking around, but I think it would interesting to have a variant in which the battle line is in ranks (rows) of 6. It's really hard to determine who's a flank and who's not when you have 12 creatures on your player mat. The ranks don't necessarily have to matter, maybe with the exception of flank ability based creatures, but the could.

The forward ranks would need to be full before you could have more, and filling in empty spaces would always happen from the rank behind  before it happens from the sides. I don't think it would add a lot of complexity and might distinguish KeyForge from other similar games a bit. It would be a lot easier to keep track of your opponent's board state.

##### Share on other sites
2 hours ago, debiant said:

A strict battle line limits the potential of Sanctum and Brobnar, which are heavily reliant on their tanks sticking around, but I think it would interesting to have a variant in which the battle line is in ranks (rows) of 6. It's really hard to determine who's a flank and who's not when you have 12 creatures on your player mat. The ranks don't necessarily have to matter, maybe with the exception of flank ability based creatures, but the could.

The forward ranks would need to be full before you could have more, and filling in empty spaces would always happen from the rank behind  before it happens from the sides. I don't think it would add a lot of complexity and might distinguish KeyForge from other similar games a bit. It would be a lot easier to keep track of your opponent's board state.

In the same way a hand limit (of let's say 12) would stop draw-based combos from leaving you with the deck in your hand - but those combos would still be good, a field limit (of let's say 12) would keep the board state manageable, while 6 sanctum and 6 brobnar creatures in a line remains intimidating.

I think they left these kinds of limits out of the game because the first set is an experiment. They will probably want to look at everything that happens and make some decisions about how to steer the game - by clamping down a bit on the edges, or by introducing things into the new sets that help create better counters for those issues. Probably a little of both on a case by case basis.

I like the idea of multiple lines - was actually just discussing something like that last night at the lgs. Not as a way of limiting things, but just as another mechanic that might be fun to play around with. With 2 lines, you could have 4 flank creatures for instance. And then you have more places to stick taunts etc.

Edited by saluk64007

##### Share on other sites
On 12/5/2018 at 10:43 PM, Amanal said:

Pit Lord could result in a First Turn loss if played without proper caution.

Yes. Pit Lord, the Demon of Suicide.

##### Share on other sites

The dumbest one I've come across is maverick witch of the wild in dis with restringuntus and control the weak. Unless you have one of the few counters (pingle autocannon special delivery deipno spymaster and an appropriate target) and it's already in play and they can't remove it, or you get lucky with e.g. mind barb or deep probe, as soon as they draw the combo you're locked out. Better hope there's not enough time left in the round for them to catch up.

##### Share on other sites

This post was based on misunderstanding.

1-2 Turn Hand Lock:

Restringuntus is powerful, and a lot of people hate this card. So. let's make it more powerful.  You don't necessarily need all of the pieces to pull this off. If they have a single faction in hand you only really need two of them. The more pieces you have, the more certain victory becomes.

Card List

Primary:

• A Fair Game
• Restringuntus
• Mind Control

Secondary:

• Control the Weak
• Tocsin

Tertiary:

• Library of the Damned
• Pit Lord
• Arise!

1 Turn Win:

Most Popular:

1. A Fair Game
2. Restringuntus

Most Likely to Succeed:

1. A Fair Game
2. Mind Control
3. Restringuntus

2 Turn Win:

If you play A Fair Game and have the primary and secondary cards, this may be a better play:

Turn 1 (You don't want to play Mind Control because your opponent draw a card)

1. A Fair Game
2. Succubus
3. Play Tocsin
4. Control the Weak

Turn 2:

1. Mind Control
2. Reap with Tocsin
3. Restringuntus

Edited by debiant
Misunderstanding card text.

## Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×

×

• #### Activity

×
• Create New...