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Is keyforge going to eat Magic alive.?

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1 minute ago, WonderWAAAGH said:

Pokemon, Yugioh, and Hearthstone already do that, though. And they've been doing it for quite a while. Why should KeyForge be any more influential than Destiny?

Pokemon, Yugioh, and HS all cater to a very different crowd from my experience. They target young children and very casual gamers. Particularly HS but as soon as you start looking for depth in your game and don't want a fancied up game of war you need to look elsewhere. Pokemon and Yugioh rely totally on IP and brand awareness. HS relys on Blizzard brand awareness and catching people's eye in the Battlenet launcher. Of those 3 I would say only HS has a broad appeal, and that seems fairly limited to Blizzard customers (granted that due to Blizzards history and WOW. 

Keyforge has caught the most diverse group of players I have seen in any card game ever. And much to my surprise continues to bring that diverse group to the stores regularly. Only time will tell if this trend continues.

As to Destiny, I think the main draw is the IP, Star Wars. And Disney has done some serious damage to the brand with the SJW nonsense in their ranks. Additionally for many critical minded gamers it's a mess of a game. You are play with a layer of RNG (cards drawn) on top of another layer of RNG (dice rolls). It seriously hampers quality game play interaction when you lose so much player agency. Additionally the barrier to entry for Destiny is similar to MTG. 

Most importantly Keyforge is just hands down a better game than Destiny. 

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2 minutes ago, Krashwire said:

Keyforge has caught the most diverse group of players I have seen in any card game ever. And much to my surprise continues to bring that diverse group to the stores regularly. Only time will tell if this trend continues.

My experience has been that KeyForge is doing what FFG properties usually do, and that's catch the attention of FFG players. 

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There is already quite a robust secondary market forming. Granted is just on a deck level instead of singles. There are plenty of people looking to sell or trade decks. It will be interesting to see how well that holds up in the next 3 - 6 months.

I think a strong move FFG could make would be to add an online client to play. You could scan in your deck and then any decks you have discovered you could then play online. This would still encourage sales as you wouldn't be able to play a deck unless you had discovered it. Sure there will be people who would play other peoples decks, but that is true in tabletop as well. The deck still needs to have been opened and scanned physically before it would be able to be used online.

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I think the big long term plan to be a #1 game would have to be something like FNM, ie a regular meetup with small buy in and direct support from FFG.  Moreso than the pro tour a HUGE chunk of MTG players are just drafting, playing sealed, or playing the Commander format with collections they've built over the years.  I think the unique nature of Keyforge and the lack of deck building is a great alternative and will get the attention of a broad audience, but I doubt it will replace MTG.  FFG almost always comes out of the gate hot with a new game, what they haven't done is shown the ability to maintain that momentum over the course of more than a few years. 

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Magic is going to eat itself alive.  Keyforge will just be at the table ready to lock the plate clean.

A decline in card quality, lazy design, and the 10 year too late push to online play is what is going to hurt magic.  Will it be enough to kill it?  Probably not, but I think Keyforge is probably the first real threat to magic's mostly I go tested reign.

There have been a bunch of better games than magic that have come and gone but magic's marketing and accessibility have kept it on top.  Now you have another game that is far more accessible to the masses........

Uncertain the future is.....but exciting to watch it will be 

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8 minutes ago, Ishi Tonu said:

A decline in card quality, lazy design, and the 10 year too late push to online play is what is going to hurt magic.  Will it be enough to kill it?  Probably not, but I think Keyforge is probably the first real threat to magic's mostly I go tested reign.

I'm not so sure about that. Ixalan (or Zendikar 2: Electric Boogaloo) + Dominaria + M19 + Return to Return to Ravnica is probably the best standard environment they've had in quite some time.

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34 minutes ago, Ishi Tonu said:

A decline in card quality, lazy design, and the 10 year too late push to online play is what is going to hurt magic.  Will it be enough to kill it?  Probably not, but I think Keyforge is probably the first real threat to magic's mostly I go tested reign.

I have to disagree with this. The most recent set is one of the best I've ever seen. It's been a really fun set. Sure there have been some stinkers, but were you around for Fallen Empires or Homelands?

Arena is one of the best online formats/clients for a card game I have seen. The UI is slick and easily understood (one of MTGO's biggest failures). The model for earning more cards is pretty well done as well (barring the 5th copy issue). There is none of the bullpoop of the Magic games we saw on steam where you cant build your own decks and everyone uses the same pool of decks.

I do think Keyforge would benefit greatly from an official online client. Being able to bring in the decks you own (and feel an attachment to) would be a necessity for success. Plus it would only enhance the sales of physical decks.

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12 minutes ago, WonderWAAAGH said:

I'm not so sure about that. Ixalan (or Zendikar 2: Electric Boogaloo) + Dominaria + M19 + Return to Return to Ravnica is probably the best standard environment they've had in quite some time.

They say that about every environment.  Schills got a job to do and that's keep the half full glass on the table at all times.

Even if it's true, that doesn't address the facts that the card stock has declined, and there hasn't been much innovation in design unless you consider the rebreanding of existing design innovative.  I don't so a return of convoke, an altered scry effect, an altered flashback effect, and whatever +1/+1 mechanic they want to add this time is lazy IMO.

The game has a good foundation, probably because the original designer is great at what he does. There may be times where the current design team gets a solid hit, but, I haven't seen a homerun from them in a long long time.

Fortunately for me I don't have to pay to play magic. It's the only reason why I'm still playing the game.  When they finally get MtGArena to the masses, I'm doubtful that their paper product will be better.  More accessible sure, but, why would someone pay for a crappy paper product when they can get it free online?

Wotc continues to be horrible to the local game stores while simutaneously trying to get caught up in the online market.  This is not a positive signal about the future of their paper product.  

Magic will probably be fine as long as they have major money like Hasbro backing them. If they do tank, they will only have themselves to blame. 

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12 minutes ago, Krashwire said:

I have to disagree with this. The most recent set is one of the best I've ever seen. It's been a really fun set. Sure there have been some stinkers, but were you around for Fallen Empires or Homelands?

Arena is one of the best online formats/clients for a card game I have seen. The UI is slick and easily understood (one of MTGO's biggest failures). The model for earning more cards is pretty well done as well (barring the 5th copy issue). There is none of the bullpoop of the Magic games we saw on steam where you cant build your own decks and everyone uses the same pool of decks.

I do think Keyforge would benefit greatly from an official online client. Being able to bring in the decks you own (and feel an attachment to) would be a necessity for success. Plus it would only enhance the sales of physical decks.

Until MtGArena is on android or ios it's a non-factor.....and it's still a decade late in arriving.  Mtgo is horrible and always has been but Word did nothing because they were getting paid.

Sure their are some mistakes but even FE and Homelands can't touch the recent failures of 6 standard cycles in a row needing a banning until they finally just rotated out.

If we're going to call the current standard format the best it's been in a long time it's only fair that we address why it was so bad until now.

Still doesn't address the card stock being horrible.  I have beta and unlimited cards that I recently opened from a prize pack I won.  Clean and crisp after 25 years.

I opened a pack of the return to the return to ravnica (even the set name is lazy) and my mythic is warped right out of the pack....and it's been this way for at leat the last 3 years. 

The game itself is the same game it always was.  Anything that is good about the game is because of the foundation that Garfield laid, not what the squatters have done to the place after he left.

 

Edited by Ishi Tonu

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18 minutes ago, Ishi Tonu said:

They say that about every environment. 

I don't know who "they" are, but that's what I say. We're finally past the rough patch that was Wizards' attempt at changing standard - no summer core set, 2-set blocks, 18 month rotation. The game is more stable and fun now than it has been in 3+ years, and not a single one of the past 5 sets has been a dud.

Edited by WonderWAAAGH

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10 minutes ago, WonderWAAAGH said:

I don't know who "they" are, but that's what I say. We're finally past the rough patch that was Wizards' attempt at changing standard - no summer core set, 2-set blocks, 18 month rotation. The game is more stable and fun now than it has been in 3+ years, and not a single one of the past 5 sets has been a dud.

Ok.  I just don't think Magic deserves a bunch of praise for doing now what they should have done.  They were the ones that screwed it up and then they had to fix it.

The game doesn't suck right now is not a ringing endorsement.

 

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1 minute ago, Ishi Tonu said:

Ok.  I just don't think Magic deserves a bunch of praise for doing now what they should have done.  They were the ones that screwed it up and then they had to fix it.

The game doesn't suck right now is not a ringing endorsement.

 

I wasn't praising Magic; this isn't the place for that. I was dispelling the notion that it sucks and is getting worse, which is quite the opposite of things getting better. The fact that Wizards messes things up (sometimes pretty badly) is a matter of record; the fact that they fix their mistakes is also a matter of record. It's one of many reasons that they've been able to survive as a company, and a brand, for 25+ years.

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6 minutes ago, WonderWAAAGH said:

I wasn't praising Magic; this isn't the place for that. I was dispelling the notion that it sucks and is getting worse, which is quite the opposite of things getting better. The fact that Wizards messes things up (sometimes pretty badly) is a matter of record; the fact that they fix their mistakes is also a matter of record. It's one of many reasons that they've been able to survive as a company, and a brand, for 25+ years.

That and they haven't had a legitimate competitor.

Ever since people got over the idea that Magic would be a fad and disappear (awesome pun) it has thrived and dominated the market.

This is the first time that I can recall it having a legitimate contender, despite there having been dozens of games better than Mtg since its original launch.

That we are even talking about magic surviving, and it will survive, demonstrates that it finally has something to keep it honest.

That magic has been allowed to pull the crap that they have and then "fix it" in the laziest manner possible was because the playerbase was invested and had no other place to go.

At the very least Keyforge is going to push magic to step its game up.  If they don't then Magic will still survive, but we both know that just surviving in a market you have dominated for over two decades is actually a loss

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10 minutes ago, Ishi Tonu said:

That and they haven't had a legitimate competitor.

I already brought up Pokemon, Yugioh, and Hearthstone. Are you insinuating that KeyForge is a legitimate competitor? It's new, but it's not amazing. FFG is going to need to step their game up if they want to build a game that approximates Magic's level of completeness. And they're already off to a rough start, considering how many of the same rules blunders they've already made - and corrected - in other games. Learning from past mistakes might not be FFG's strong suit.

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12 minutes ago, WonderWAAAGH said:

I already brought up Pokemon, Yugioh, and Hearthstone. Are you insinuating that KeyForge is a legitimate competitor? It's new, but it's not amazing. FFG is going to need to step their game up if they want to build a game that approximates Magic's level of completeness. And they're already off to a rough start, considering how many of the same rules blunders they've already made - and corrected - in other games. Learning from past mistakes might not be FFG's strong suit.

Pokemon is a wotc product, Hearthstone is difital only and Yugioh doesn't have the same mass appeal, so no, none of those are legitimate competitiors, they don't really compete for the same playerbase and none of them are very good games.

It's clear you aren't a fan of FFG but there really isn't anything objectively bad that they've done with keyforge so far.  You might not agree with how rules were written but it's not like magic didn't have it's fair share of issues at the start.  I mean you are talking about a game that allowed someone to rip up a card and sprinkle it on it's opponent's cards because the rules didn't say he couldn't.

Things get missed.

They is no denying that Keyforge is super easy to get into and has has lots of mass appeal.  People that don't want to be 25 years behind and are looking to get into a game that is little to no barriers for entry is going to do well.  

At the local sealed event (that was sold out and I stayed just to watch and play demo decks on the side) we had 30 actual players from magic, l5r, d&d, Destiny, x-wing, GoT, and warhammer, and a couple of band new players.......magic never gets this kind of diversity of player at a new set release, no game does.

That's a real challenge for magic.  I have no clue if they are up to it.  They certainly can't have another period of 6 standard cycles that are broken, because if they do there will be someone in their store that says "spend $10 and try Keyforge....."

Once that happens it will likely be too late for magic to get that player back.  Especially when That player can go home teach it to their family, friends, etc and get them in a while heck of a lot easier than they could for magic.

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45 minutes ago, Ishi Tonu said:

Pokemon is a wotc product, Hearthstone is difital only and Yugioh doesn't have the same mass appeal, so no, none of those are legitimate competitiors, they don't really compete for the same playerbase and none of them are very good games.

Pokemon didn't start that way.

45 minutes ago, Ishi Tonu said:

It's clear you aren't a fan of FFG but there really isn't anything objectively bad that they've done with keyforge so far. 

Been playing their games for what, 5 or 6 years now? I don't love them, but I feel entitled to my criticism.

45 minutes ago, Ishi Tonu said:

You might not agree with how rules were written but it's not like magic didn't have it's fair share of issues at the start.

And yet they learned. KeyForge is already making the exact same mistakes that Destiny (and probably others besides) made several years back now. 

45 minutes ago, Ishi Tonu said:

 I mean you are talking about a game that allowed someone to rip up a card and sprinkle it on it's opponent's cards because the rules didn't say he couldn't.

Don't forget that you can take your pants off at instant speed.

44 minutes ago, Ishi Tonu said:

Once that happens it will likely be too late for magic to get that player back.  Especially when That player can go home teach it to their family, friends, etc and get them in a while heck of a lot easier than they could for magic.

I really don't think it's necessary to explain how gaming experiences aren't mutually exclusive, and to proclaim with certainty that anybody who leaves Magic will never come back to the fold is a bit extreme. The sky isn't falling for Magic; they've survived darker times. KeyForge, on the other hand, has more cause for concern right now. 

Edited by WonderWAAAGH

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Pokemon TCG hasn’t ben WoTC product since mid 2003. Pokémon TCG was the top seller in CCG’s in 2016. 

WotC also ignores losses. The had a a sharp drop in Grand Prix attendance in 2017 down 40% from 2016 attendance. Then when the had a 3% increase from the 2017 numbers in 2018, they proudly called it an increase. Sure their technically right, but putting on blinders about the 37% you still haven’t got back is truly idiotic.

WotC has been on a train wreck since 2015. They are barely starting to realize they aren’t the top dog anymore and are  reacting very slowly to it. 2020 is when their going to feel the hit from all of it and they might not last till 2025. Screwing LSG’s it going to hit the worst. Game stores is where the game get played most. Once enough stores stop bothering with MtG, the game will die.

Edited by Hyperjayman

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14 hours ago, WonderWAAAGH said:

Were you alive in the '90s? Magic had a metric ton of competition back then, from Jyhad / V:tES (also designed by Garfield) to Spellfire and all of the AEG properties. They all failed during Magic's infancy, the time when it was easily at its most vulnerable.

Minor correction:  Legend of the Five Rings (one of the AEG properties mentioned) didn't fail in Magic's infancy.  It lasted over 20 years before finally dying.  (Not counting the FFG LCG resurrection.)  It is, however, the rare exception.

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As someone who proudly and passionately championed and played L5R for almost it's entire lifespan, as a player, a TO, and a content provider, I can speak from a position of considerable experience and knowledge and say at no point was L5R ever serious competition to Magic or any of the other big dogs. That's not necessarily a bad thing as size isn't an indication of quality, but we were definitely always a niche game.

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18 hours ago, Cade Bulkin said:

I feel like the target audience of Keyforge is the people who "nope'd" their way out of MTG a long time ago.

But that's also the case of every LCG. That was literally the whole point of LCGs, was to cater to that exact audience. Keyforge caters more to the Epic:TCG and Summoner Wars crowd, which is a very important market, but not Magic's market.

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I think it is more likely that Keyforge steps in to take the place of bedraggled Magic players like me who used to love the game. Keyforge is everything that is good about Magic without the large investment of time and cash building decks. I'm definitely a player who loves customization but I enjoy that with Keyforge everyone is essentially on a level playing field at the gate. To me that's a recipe for long term success.

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