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LordBubba

Is keyforge going to eat Magic alive.?

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Nope, you gotta understand Magic is to card games what world of Warcraft is to mmo’s. People have invested so much time and money in it that even if they get bored or find something better it’s really hard to give up on do to the massive investments made (not that they’ve neccessarily gotten board it’s just some have invested thousands of dollars and hundreds up hundreds of hours into the game).

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Unless Wotc screws up so much that noone would like Magic anymore no other card game will eat Magic alive.

And since WotC is already screwing up a lot lately you can tell that they would have to screw up so much more to even notice a dent.

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If Keyforge starts getting sold in standard retail, (Walmart, Target) it will definitely do well.  But I don't think anything will push MtG off the top of the hill.

Heck, you can even get MtG boosters at some local grocery stores.

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Of course not, the last Magic set they printed is one of the highest selling of all time.  They have run afoul of fans with some recent moves like the Ultimate Masters debacle and the shift towards online purchasing, but with Arena going to beta I would expect Magic to continue to grow.  Keyforge has a great amount of momentum going but we'll have to see if it can reach the same heights as Magic.

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MTG continues to be a great game. Are there flaws? Sure. Do they outweigh the positive qualities? Obviously not for thousands upon thousands of players. The game is very popular and there are many other games that have been competition to keep them from being the only game out there. But none have ever threatened to end Magic's reign. Even those that tried to directly compete with Magic (often by former Magic players who do see the flaws). One example is Spoils, it was created as direct competition to Magic. It was meant to be the next big competitive CCG and directly addresses many of Magic's flaws. It failed to de-throne Magic. It's a great game in its own right though.

Keyforge addresses many of those problems in Magic in a way that has not really ever been done. It is a true innovation. It has surprised a lot of us. I was very anti when I first heard the model. Keyforge has drawn in a wider array of players than Magic ever did or ever will. Magic is not very casual friendly unless you play in a closed group with a closed card pool (like when the game first came out). Magic will retain much of the competitive market for the time being as there is so much past investment in collections.

However I do believe that with many of the innovations in game and spectacular advances Keyforge has made, Magic is now just another game when it comes to anything short of the ProTour. What I mean by that is for anyone who isn't a die hard Magic fan, and unwilling to give Keyforge a shot, Magic is no longer the only 'real' card game out there to consider. Keyforge is bringing in bigger numbers than Magic does for all of the stores I have been to in our area. This includes two stores who's whole focus is on MTG and everything else is a distant second in consideration. 

Magic is now just another game. Any FLGS who does not recognize this will probably not be a store in the next 5 years. At least for now, Keyforge is a game that cannot be ignored by store owners who have in store events for card gaming.

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Nah. It's unlikely that I would ever stop playing Magic. Right now I stopped playing it in my local store because I cannot keep up with the prices for standard. And even that doesn't mean I'll not play Magic because I play commander with friends (a MTG more casual format). MTG card prices are going insane everytime a new set is released (specially in Brazil), so I'm so glad I'll be able to play something new for a fair price in KeyForge. 

But it's sooo early to know if it will get even close to MTG. Doesn't mean it can't, but KeyForge needs to explode in popularity for that to even be a possibility.

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26 minutes ago, Krashwire said:

However I do believe that with many of the innovations in game and spectacular advances Keyforge has made, Magic is now just another game when it comes to anything short of the ProTour. What I mean by that is for anyone who isn't a die hard Magic fan, and unwilling to give Keyforge a shot, Magic is no longer the only 'real' card game out there to consider. Keyforge is bringing in bigger numbers than Magic does for all of the stores I have been to in our area. This includes two stores who's whole focus is on MTG and everything else is a distant second in consideration. 

Magic is now just another game. Any FLGS who does not recognize this will probably not be a store in the next 5 years. At least for now, Keyforge is a game that cannot be ignored by store owners who have in store events for card gaming.

Were you alive in the '90s? Magic had a metric ton of competition back then, from Jyhad / V:tES (also designed by Garfield) to Spellfire and all of the AEG properties. They all failed during Magic's infancy, the time when it was easily at its most vulnerable. 

KeyForge is novel, but not nearly strong enough to eclipse any card game, let alone Magic. The reason Magic persists is because it has a robust professional environment, something FFG is very much loath to dabble in.  

Edited by WonderWAAAGH

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Magic very well could die.

 

But this is in no way going to be what kills it. There's no way Keyforge ever achieves the popularity of AGoT or Netruner. The model has too narrow a focus. It's great for some people, but it lacks the broad target audience of an lcg.

Edited by Supertoe

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MtG is a CCG. Keyforge if closer to board games, but using a card format. Something like Smash Up. 

KF can dethrone MtG just because they are not even playing in the same league.

Obviously FLGSs have to pay attention to the newcomer, specially when it has generated a Hype so high. Is easy money. How many time will it endure under the focus is yet to know. 

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I got roped back into Magic around the time Origins hit. I originally started playing around the Beta release but was too poor to ever play competitively, even against my small friend group. I enjoyed playing again for a time, now able to afford to play, but I took leave when they announced a set with dinosaurs and pirates in an Aztec setting. It just seemed like they'd run out of ideas, and started throwing darts at a board with random creatures and settings.

KeyForge has the potential to be huge. It has an interesting mythos; it was designed by the same man who gave us Magic, which lends street cred among Magic players; it doesn't require you to be a professional level deckbuilder; and it has a burgeoning secondary market for those who wish to participate, though in KeyForge players don't need to go to the secondary market to have a fighting chance in game.

I know many Magic players enjoying their entry into KeyForge. I know more who'd left Magic and enjoy KeyForge for all the reasons they'd left in the first place. My FLGS is part of a coalition of FLGS who are reducing their promotion of Magic due to Hasbro shenanigans. My local game store is no longer making 75% or even 50% of their revenue off of Magic, and revenues are up due to promotion and support for other games.  They're looking to the future, and they're as tired of the secondary market as many Magic players.

Hasbro is currently leveraging its weight, and they're making local game stores pay the price. WotC keep reducing margins for local game stores to avoid increasing MSRP. This might be okay for players, but it works largely to the benefit of big retailers who aren't keeping the game alive on the ground. Our local FnM has seen a huge reduction in numbers. People are converting to games they don't have to spend their entire paycheck on. Among those who do enjoy spending money, who enjoy the complexity, and favor customizability I've seen a lot of converts to Warhammer 40K. It's a game where the meta isn't dominated by three builds, and is vastly more customizable. Games Workshop also has policies that are more friendly to game stores. 

I know Magic is huge, with] a tournament structure unrivaled in paper card games, but WotC relies heavily on the support of local stores, the same stores it continues to burn. They rely on a secondary market where players must pay large sums of money to stay competitive. Those same players are often hit by bannings and reprints that tank their investments. When valuable cards you have are reprinted in twenty dollar decks, resentment can lead to to exodus. 

There are a growing number of alternatives to Magic, online and in-store. The hobby games market has expanded at an insane rate and many new players simply won't tolerate a game with such a high barrier to entry. I'm not saying Magic is disappearing anytime soon, but I don't think it's completely insane to think KeyForge might one day supplant it as king of the game store.

The primary audience for most hobby games is going to be the new and expanding player base. I think Magic will continue to lose ground with this audience going forward.

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@debiant

Oh boy, 40k. Now that's a whole separate can of worms. Let's have a talk about Astra Militarum and Imperial Knights, shall we?

I do think it's completely insane to think "KeyForge might one day supplant [Magic] as king of the game store." FFG has proven time and again that they just don't have the chops for a competitive card game, rules wise or professionally. FFG players also almost universally despise the idea of a standard rotating set format, and yet that very thing is the lifeblood of all card games. KeyForge is selling pretty well, but under 200k registered decks falls somewhere short of 140 quadrillion (or whatever it was), and if you look back just a couple of years ago you can see the growing pains that Destiny went through at launch. The game sold like cocaine flavored hotcakes, and now the market is saturated (my $50 Vaders tanked, hard) with singles, and none of the local retailers / B&M store owners know of anybody playing it, let alone buying packs. 

Look, FFG puts out some product with a fairly high degree of quality, but their market niche has always been gimmickiness. Asymmetrical card games, living card games, dice-card games, unique card games. That's fine and all, but it seems like the only brand they can actually compete with on even terms is themselves.    

Edited by WonderWAAAGH

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1 hour ago, WonderWAAAGH said:

Were you alive in the '90s? Magic had a metric ton of competition back then, from Jyhad / V:tES (also designed by Garfield) to Spellfire and all of the AEG properties. They all failed during Magic's infancy, the time when it was easily at its most vulnerable. 

KeyForge is novel, but not nearly strong enough to eclipse any card game, let alone Magic. The reason Magic persists is because it has a robust professional environment, something FFG is very much loath to dabble in.  

Yes, I was introduced to Magic at my college's gaming club when Richard Garfield was going to gaming clubs to teach people how to play. We received beta starters and packs to learn with. 

Jyhad (one of my all time favorite card games when you have at least 4 players) was never even close to competition for MTG. It's a niche genre for a niche game type (card games at the time were still very much niche games). On top of which Jyhad/VTES is really a mediocre game with less than 4 people. It really breaks down with just 2 players.

Other than L5R most other card games really didn't even get on the radar in the 90's. They were typically here today, gone tomorrow, sort of things. Many of them very good. MTG has always held a more universal appeal. Its far more generic in theme and setting (pretty much a generic fantasy setting for all of the 90's).

The problem for MTG competition is there really hasn't been many that were competition for a variety of reasons. The biggest probably being that at first it was a very niche market. Most of the early to mid 90s games that tried to capitalize on the CCG phenomenon were up against an established game and in a limited market space. There just weren't enough players to make more than one game widly popular. Sure many of those games had some dedicated groups, but in a model that demands continuous sales that just doesn't work. There just were not enough dollars to go around. 

Another problem for would be competitors in the 90's was just how many tried to compete with MTG. There were literally several dozens of CCGs being shown at Gencon and Origins every year. Almost none of them made it to retail. Of those that did most were not around for more than a few months. 

While I agree that the pro circuit has been a major factor in keeping MTG thriving, I do not believe Keyforge will not be able to thrive. I think this is one of the first times we have seen a new card game with enough broad appeal that it will be a real contender. The cross section and number of players showing up to regular ol' game nights are vastly outnumbering Friday Night Magic (at least locally and in a few other cities I have friends in). Keyforge is so much more appealing to the non-Pro scene. It's something I have never seen with card games. 

I don't think Keyforge will kill MTG. I think it will make it so that its not the only thing most people think of when card games come up. Time will tell for sure but I honestly think Keyforge will be more influential than MTG if even half of the momentum it has can carry forward.

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10 minutes ago, Krashwire said:

Jyhad (one of my all time favorite card games when you have at least 4 players) was never even close to competition for MTG. It's a niche genre for a niche game type (card games at the time were still very much niche games). On top of which Jyhad/VTES is really a mediocre game with less than 4 people. It really breaks down with just 2 players.

Other than L5R most other card games really didn't even get on the radar in the 90's. They were typically here today, gone tomorrow, sort of things. Many of them very good. MTG has always held a more universal appeal. Its far more generic in theme and setting (pretty much a generic fantasy setting for all of the 90's).

I owned a store when MtG came out. We did a lot of play testing for a number of companies inclding Decipher, Steve JAckson and Chaosium. MtG was king but Star Wars was a strong #2 and Jyhad/VtES #3. The original L5R was very strong as well as Star Trek, X-Files and Highlander. Mythos. Dune and Guardians also got a lot of play.  I still have all the beta and playtest decks in storage. If someone was going to unseat MtG, this would have been the time to do it.

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31 minutes ago, Krashwire said:

I think it will make it so that its not the only thing most people think of when card games come up. Time will tell for sure but I honestly think Keyforge will be more influential than MTG if even half of the momentum it has can carry forward.

Pokemon, Yugioh, and Hearthstone already do that, though. And they've been doing it for quite a while. Why should KeyForge be any more influential than Destiny?

31 minutes ago, Krashwire said:

*'90s snip*

All very well and good in hindsight, but that's not saying much for KeyForge's current position only 2 weeks into launch. Some expression about forests and trees comes to mind.

Edited by WonderWAAAGH

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