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Jeff Wilder

Tracking demand for Conversion Kits ...

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3 minutes ago, Icelom said:

Also Jeff you have a very small and very localized set of data. Metas and what was popular vary wildly by region. Not saying your data is incorrect just that it might be.

As I pointed out up-thread, it wouldn't be hard to copy my spreadsheet and gather the data from however many dozens of participants.  I don't have the time or inclination to that (although I am interested in it).  I'm pretty comfortable with my collected data and its applicability, especially in the trend-line it shows.

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lots of scum m3-a interceptors. when these come out could probably get enough conversions for a swarm dirt cheap, then pick up the ships cheap when they are clearenced to make way for 2.0

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From canvassing my group, Jeff's trends seem valid.

However, we have several players with large, epic collections and we aren't even going to try to convert most of our ships. Instead, we will get one kit per faction and wait and see what happens to epic play.

Meanwhile, many ships will be flying casually using their v1 gear.

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16 minutes ago, gamblertuba said:

To those arguing against Jeff here I have a question: What do you suppose the price will be on 2.0 upgrades and dials for TIE Fighters and Decimators in October?

I am not really arguing against Jeff, just more for FFG.

I think some of the bigger issues that are arising is you cant put 1.5 ships in a kit so some of the big ships are just going to have extras due to that nature. If you put one in then a triple list requires 3x kits if you put two in as they did then we will have to many in most cases. For many of jeff's data points if you increase or decrease the ship by 1 it swings the other way. 

I personally just like the 2x kits covers a full swarm of any ship philosophy even if it might not be the most efficient, it limits more of the extreme outliers.

You can also see the trend in Jeff's group to have allot more multiples of the older ships and less of the newer ships. Where myself for example is inversed to that for the most part. 

Again i am not saying Jeff's data is wrong just that there really is not a good way to do this unless you go to smaller and smaller kits and then that increases the overall costs. The larger the kit the less flexibility there is but the bigger the per unit savings.

 

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1 hour ago, gamblertuba said:

To those arguing against Jeff here I have a question: What do you suppose the price will be on 2.0 upgrades and dials for TIE Fighters and Decimators in October?

Since thet are currently the same price on the best singles store in the UK at the moment, I recommend pre-ordering the ones that people want very quickly!

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Hmm.  Is there a US retailer doing this?  Not sure how I feel about that.  If the kits become scarce, this going to be a real annoyance.

Edit:. Also someone on the Xwing Vassal slack started a Google form with 186 responses so far.

Edited by gamblertuba

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10 hours ago, Jeff Wilder said:

Yes.  So what?  Maybe I want 10 converted TIEs because two or three people play with my kit?

You are going to need probably more than one kit anyway in that case. Uniques missing and all. Together with better swarm synergies because of more swarm support ships like Howlrunner apparently. 

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53 minutes ago, Jeff Wilder said:

How's it looking?

It’s the same one I posted here. I just posted it to the vassal league and reddit as well to get as many responses as I can. 

Last I looked a few hours ago, average for tie fighters was about 5, 3 for xwings.  Beings were at 2.43 average, defenders at 2.34.   Interceptors edges out the kit at 3.21. Pretty much everything averaged about at or below the kits contents. 

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6 minutes ago, dewbie420 said:

I won't be short on Star Viper cardboard when the folding wings, re-issue drops... if the CK and the Expansion have enough stuff. 

 

God I hope they do give us folding wings. Hopefully sooner rather than later

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6 hours ago, VanderLegion said:

It’s the same one I posted here. I just posted it to the vassal league and reddit as well to get as many responses as I can. 

Last I looked a few hours ago, average for tie fighters was about 5, 3 for xwings.  Beings were at 2.43 average, defenders at 2.34.   Interceptors edges out the kit at 3.21. Pretty much everything averaged about at or below the kits contents. 

It does show that large base ships are way over-represented in the kits.  If I get bored today, I might try to figure out the number of extra pieces or missing pieces per 100 players.

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So, just a thought. I saw a lot of people complaining that they put in two of the big ships/ not enough of the small. Personally, I’m glad they decided to go heavier on ensuring that the more expensive kits people definitely got enough of in there so they only have to (possibly) rebuy smaller cheaper kits for swarmy lists. 

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If the survey results are any indication, there will no shortage of large ship parts going for trade or sale on the secondary market, so people really wouldn't be having to rebuy the more expensive kits to get extras (not that that would even solve the conversion issue). Actually, in all likelihood, people would practically be giving them away for free.

Let's look at the Hound's Tooth as an example (this is the from the Ship Conversion Survey thread poll) - out of 212 people when I looked, 3 people want an extra set while 194 people will have extras that they won't need (for an actual total of 276 sets available [as those who don't have the ship at all will each have 2 sets]). That's a jaw-dropping oversupply.

On the other hand, if they include just 1x Hound's Tooth conversion, 112 people would get exactly what they need (as opposed to 15), and yet there would still be 82 people with a single spare to trade/sell to the 18 who wanted more than 1. That's still an abundance and is still inefficient, but it's not completely ridiculous. The numbers for the other large ships work out similarly.

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