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Shadow345

X-Wing a Dead Game?

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1 hour ago, Vontoothskie said:

fully agree.  thats what i was calling fix packs. where i was going with it was that with the existing ships, every logical archetype within format is in the game. new expansion will either make old ships obsolette with power creep or be worse versions of existing ships. the design space is full. 

story missions, new game types, or X-wing 2.0 could all fix that, but what we are seeing with x-wing is stagnation. in a computer game would lead to aggressive rebalancing with patches , but thats not possible here. thats what has me concerned

I'll agree with the stagnation, but the design space is not full.  There are a ton of ways to still give ships a special ability to make them different from current ships.  They won't be amazingly different, because that's essentially power creep.  What they need is just a little personalized character with an interesting chassis ability plus a neat ace ability.

For example:

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/273258-new-ship-mechanics-hold-the-ships/

And I have an idea on how to play with a 2 die attack TIE fighter that I will post this weekend once I've made up some cards.

Interesting mods and titles for a specific chassis are a great way to add variety, and allow players to kit out a single chassis into multiple roles (exactly like the Gunboat).

Done right, the X-Wing could have 11 variants:

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/245773-x-wing-lore/

 

Edited by Darth Meanie

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19 hours ago, Shadow345 said:

Yeah it's pretty bad.

 

My local store hasn't moved any of their stock of Resistance Bombers. I feel bad about it.

 

But there's no point me buying it either if nobody is purchasing new stuff or playing anymore.

I took a list with Crimson Specialist to a 5-1 record and 3rd at Vancouver CAC.

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39 minutes ago, Darth Meanie said:

I'll agree with the stagnation, but the design space is not full.  There are a ton of ways to still give ships a special ability to make them different from current ships.  They won't be amazingly different, because that's essentially power creep.  What they need is just a little personalized character with an interesting chassis ability plus a neat ace ability.

For example:

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/273258-new-ship-mechanics-hold-the-ships/

And I have an idea on how to play with a 2 die attack TIE fighter that I will post this weekend once I've made up some cards.

Interesting mods and titles for a specific chassis are a great way to add variety, and allow players to kit out a single chassis into multiple roles (exactly like the Gunboat).

Done right, the X-Wing could have 11 variants:

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/245773-x-wing-lore/

 

i agree with most of that, but theres a point where variation actually hurts game balance and enjoyment.

i would rather see what we have fixed than these rapid-fire releases, 12 to 15 ships a year with 4 to 6 pilots each is a lot to keep throwing into a system with such a simple ruleset

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9 hours ago, Embir82 said:

What is your point here?
Data is available everywhere. Just check events sites which informed you how many places or tickets were left for players to buy.

So you have exactly one kind of data - attendance numbers at an event. Don't look at how the board gaming community is growing as a whole, scaling up every popular game. Don't look at the casual community, which is the bread and butter of the game. Just observe large tournaments in massive population centres and say the game is good?

9 hours ago, Embir82 said:

And on the contrary there is a lot of respectable, talented players for which X-Wing is in completely fine place and who don't even bother to check this forum, because let's face it, it is infested with balance whine and inept balance ideas made by people who got no idea about how to play and win in this game.

Good for them, but there's a few flaws in the argument. Firstly, the vast majority of these players aren't looking 5 years into the future and realising how far power creep will go by then, and are instead simply focusing on the fact that they're winning lots of games at the moment. Secondly, you're no doubt basing 'talent' on major tournament records, which is a fallacy in itself. So on the whole you're simply saying that some players are saying that they enjoy the game right now, which is pretty obvious.

9 hours ago, Embir82 said:

Major Juggler, with all respect, is not an arbiter when it comes to X-Wing - he is just a guy who dislikes X-Wing and tries to promote his house rules under the invalid name of "community mod".

Well, he's one of the highest ranked players in the Vassal league, has an extensive mathematical background which he uses to prove points - not just give an opinion, and is extensively play-testing and designing a version of the game he believes is more balanced. So who are you?

9 hours ago, Embir82 said:

Also I don't need to hear opinions of other people to have opinion if X-Wing is in fine place or not. Don't want to brag or anything but in last regional tournament and SOS I ended up in top 16 and top 8 respectively, with 5-1 result in swiss in both tournaments. I think I know sufficiently enough about this game to form my own opinion if it is in fine place or not.

Good for you. You made the cut in a largish regional and a SOS. Did you track your dice and your opponent's throughout the day and observe your match ups? Because if not, you have absolutely no way of knowing whether you got through to the cut based on skill, or a bit of a lucky streak. Judging by the tone of your posts, I'd guess you were flying meta lists, which is something I personally view as not really playing at all.

Last regional I went 4-2 flying a quadjumper (not even with Cikatro cloaking), and lost to Morgan Reid and Traviss Foss - some of the best players in Australia and worldwide. They were playing palp defenders and Paratanni respectively. My dice were not kind. The last Nationals I went to I flew Dash and a Ghost, and came up against both the RAClos present at the tournament, beating one and losing to another via a BS crit on debris, then proceeded to lose against Nymanda through another crit on debris. my dice were brutally awful.  So we can talk about accomplishments until the banthas come home, but it's actually irrelevant to the topic at hand.

9 hours ago, Embir82 said:

Then I suggest to you to participate in at least one competitve event, because your opinion is just completely unreasonable. Because people in events, even more competitve ones, more often than not are one of the most friendly, funny and nice people to share time with.
This opinion shows how much of an armchair expert you are, and frankly it shows you got no idea about competitve side of X-Wing.

In addition to above, I've played in maybe sixteen store tournaments, and won or placed second in more than half of them, flying the same kind of normally under performing lists that you'd shudder at. At larger tournaments, people are sure friendly as they put down Dengaroo which will be nerfed into oblivion tomorrow because it was a huge NPE; they're so kind and generous and sporting... for the most part.

9 hours ago, Embir82 said:

X-Wing is in a fine spot and people have a blast playing it, which is proven by main events' attendance.

You're definitely a good enough player to be on the upper side of a 3-3 record. I'd suggest talking to people down in the 1-5 area and see how they feel about their losses of the day. But again, large events don't prove - or even apply significant evidence - to a global argument.

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5 hours ago, Vontoothskie said:

yeah sadly. vague posts galore, lol

this isnt really clickbait in my book, as it stated its topic in title and is bringing up what appears to be a concern amongst a large group of players(myself included).

theyve pushed waves so fast and loose that other than fix packs and alt paints, what do people even want outside X-wing 2.0? im pumped about the reaper and partisan packs, but then what?

the game devs have backed themselves into a corner with design choices, and unlike warhammer or DnD you cant just update with a new book. the physical game components need to be replaced in order to significantly rework the game. Im worried thats too much

 

22 hours ago, Shadow345 said:

Miranda Nym meta and Last Jedi hate means X-Wing a Dead Game?

 

Nobody I know has liked the game since 2016 early 2017.

Totally disagree. I went ahead and pinned the original post as to better explain why I found it clickbait. 

Miranda Nym meta- was about 5, coming up on 6 months ago. Still a strong list? Yes. But since the Biggs(pun intended, like big nerf but with... oh nvm) nerf in November we had two weeks of Kylo meta, then gunboat meta, and now Ghost/Fenn. Sure nymrandas still kicking but one look at meta wing says it’s not the only current top contender. Now if this is the last list OP had an npe against, it would be nice to know that.

Last Jedi hate: okay that’s a (potentially) valid point. There is what I would call a large group of people that did not like the last Jedi, and as a result may not be inclined to play said game that involves sequel era ships. (Which is silly idea in itself because we have a ton of OT stuff to work with. You don’t have to fly those ships) but I can understand a local game store drying up as far as X-wing players go if that area had players that did not like the new movie.

Means X-wing a dead game?- as a whole system? No. Worlds just finished selling out, NOVA is already sold out, and wave 14 is dropping soon. The game is still alive as a whole, as in FFG is still supporting creating new content and running organized events because people are willing to pay money to participate in them.

Now on a local scale this could imply that the local area OP is in has dried up with X-wing players (possibly due to reasons listed above) and they are asking if it has happened in other areas as well, but we are not told/asked that so this is just a theory. In its current phrasing it appears click bait style. 

Nobody I know has liked the game since 2016 early 2017-  personal account/experience that adds to the idea of discussing is X-wing drying up in other players local areas, because (presumably) that is what has occurred, but again we don’t know because OP hasn’t told us.

So in conclusion: when I have to piece together an incomplete thought and one personal statement to deduce what the the poster is talking about, which on first read through appears to be clickbait because of lack clarification on the subject matter. 

(Note: I’m not trying to insult anyone here, just explain overall why I felt upon first reading this post I found it to appear as clickbait. No I don’t expect every post to be a well documented essay (then what is there left to discuss?) but at least some context would make the subject matter appear clearer and less cringy YouTuber “Is X-wing about to die?!” style.)

 

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1 hour ago, FlyingAnchors said:

 

Totally disagree. I went ahead and pinned the original post as to better explain why I found it clickbait. 

Miranda Nym meta- was about 5, coming up on 6 months ago. Still a strong list? Yes. But since the Biggs(pun intended, like big nerf but with... oh nvm) nerf in November we had two weeks of Kylo meta, then gunboat meta, and now Ghost/Fenn. Sure nymrandas still kicking but one look at meta wing says it’s not the only current top contender. Now if this is the last list OP had an npe against, it would be nice to know that.

Last Jedi hate: okay that’s a (potentially) valid point. There is what I would call a large group of people that did not like the last Jedi, and as a result may not be inclined to play said game that involves sequel era ships. (Which is silly idea in itself because we have a ton of OT stuff to work with. You don’t have to fly those ships) but I can understand a local game store drying up as far as X-wing players go if that area had players that did not like the new movie.

Means X-wing a dead game?- as a whole system? No. Worlds just finished selling out, NOVA is already sold out, and wave 14 is dropping soon. The game is still alive as a whole, as in FFG is still supporting creating new content and running organized events because people are willing to pay money to participate in them.

Now on a local scale this could imply that the local area OP is in has dried up with X-wing players (possibly due to reasons listed above) and they are asking if it has happened in other areas as well, but we are not told/asked that so this is just a theory. In its current phrasing it appears click bait style. 

Nobody I know has liked the game since 2016 early 2017-  personal account/experience that adds to the idea of discussing is X-wing drying up in other players local areas, because (presumably) that is what has occurred, but again we don’t know because OP hasn’t told us.

So in conclusion: when I have to piece together an incomplete thought and one personal statement to deduce what the the poster is talking about, which on first read through appears to be clickbait because of lack clarification on the subject matter. 

(Note: I’m not trying to insult anyone here, just explain overall why I felt upon first reading this post I found it to appear as clickbait. No I don’t expect every post to be a well documented essay (then what is there left to discuss?) but at least some context would make the subject matter appear clearer and less cringy YouTuber “Is X-wing about to die?!” style.)

 

No u

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2 hours ago, FlyingAnchors said:

So in conclusion: when I have to piece together an incomplete thought and one personal statement to deduce what the the poster is talking about, which on first read through appears to be clickbait because of lack clarification on the subject matter. 

Well, he did clarify a couple posts down that his FLGS has not sold any Resistance Bombers, therefore XWM is dead.

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21 hours ago, Vontoothskie said:

where are you?

 

21 hours ago, Vontoothskie said:

way less than 1 in a 100 players attend tournaments. its not a great metric.

many games (mtg for example) have almost seperate tourney and casual scenes with little overlap. you can have strong tournament scenes when the game is toxic or imbalanced because power gamers get drawn in by powercreep, or have thriving casual scenes when the game doesnt have tournaments at all.  the general playerbase is what keeps a game in print, and the only real way to rate that is sales of ships.

Its entirely anecdotal, but ive been seeing game stores put x-wing stuff on clearance or extreme discount a lot. that makes me concerned

 

Long delay to your reply. I apologize for that. I am in Boise, ID along with Boba Rick.

I agree with your assertion that tournament data is not a completely reliable way to prove the health of a game as the majority of people who purchase ships dont ever set foot at a casual game night or tournament.

for that I will provide the data that I can attest to. Locally we have 7 LGS. Until recently 5 of them kept X-wing in stock. It’s now down to 3 but the other 2 no longer carry any FFG product so I will assume that comes down to the change to a single distributor. The 3 that still stock x-wing have trouble keeping their product in stock and I personally see people come in and buy product who I have never seen at our weekly game nights nor any other time.

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Game is getting stronger in my area. My new local FGS has weekly games and is struggling to get product for their shelves. My first game shop stopped carrying all FFG products due to having nothing but problems with the current distributor and the second shop that I stopped playing at doesn't have any X-Wing players anymore, but still moves plenty of product (it was a nightmare getting any of the last wave through them).

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Well my club has a strong contingent of x-wingers but there has been a lot of drop-out of people who just got burned by the meta and increasingly complicated the way you had super-combos that killed off the viability of original trilogy ships.

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1 hour ago, william1134 said:

Well my club has a strong contingent of x-wingers but there has been a lot of drop-out of people who just got burned by the meta and increasingly complicated the way you had super-combos that killed off the viability of original trilogy ships.

Interestingly our FLGS has seen a number of new younger players for whom the Ghost, Lancer, Fang Fighter, Sethipede and FA/TLJ ships are the iconic ships.  At the last tournament we ran the table that got most attention from people walking into the shop was Ghost & Asoka vs Rey & Poe.

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8 hours ago, Astech said:

So you have exactly one kind of data - attendance numbers at an event. Don't look at how the board gaming community is growing as a whole, scaling up every popular game. Don't look at the casual community, which is the bread and butter of the game. Just observe large tournaments in massive population centres and say the game is good?

I got data that are measurable, I am not basing my opinion around hunch or some meaningless anecdotical evidence. Also I suggest to check this out:
https://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/39858/top-5-non-collectible-miniature-games-fall-2017

In the light of those things saying that X-Wing is dying is, well, stupid.
 

8 hours ago, Astech said:

Good for you. You made the cut in a largish regional and a SOS. Did you track your dice and your opponent's throughout the day and observe your match ups? Because if not, you have absolutely no way of knowing whether you got through to the cut based on skill, or a bit of a lucky streak.

I think you don't realize how ridiculous your statement is.
What is more probable - that I had incredible streak of good luck in the span of one month or that I just flew well?
 

8 hours ago, Astech said:

 Judging by the tone of your posts, I'd guess you were flying meta lists, which is something I personally view as not really playing at all.

So you basically just stick fingers into your ears and start to scream "I can't hear you!" like a 6 year old kid? Good to know.

I am good at X-Wing, not some imaginary game that exists only in your head. And no, my list didn't have Miranda, Nym, Ghost, Fenn, Harpoons, TLT or any bombs.
Here it is:
https://geordanr.github.io/xwing/?f=Rebel Alliance&d=v4!s!251:30,229,-1:-1:-1:;277:205,21,69:59:-1:;196:27,-1,3,254:39:15:&sn=Poe %26 Ezra %26 Lowhhrick&obs=coreasteroid0,core2asteroid0,core2asteroid2
 

8 hours ago, Astech said:

You're definitely a good enough player to be on the upper side of a 3-3 record. I'd suggest talking to people down in the 1-5 area and see how they feel about their losses of the day. But again, large events don't prove - or even apply significant evidence - to a global argument.

And again, what is your point? It is tournament, there will be always people with 1-5 record, despite the meta, it is harsh nature of any competitive event. Also there always will be some unhappy people - anecdotical evidence is not an evidence.

 

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3 hours ago, Embir82 said:

I got data that are measurable, I am not basing my opinion around hunch or some meaningless anecdotical evidence. Also I suggest to check this out:
https://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/39858/top-5-non-collectible-miniature-games-fall-2017

Your data is quantitative, versus the more common qualitative; it doesn't automatically make it better. It's nice to know X-wing has eclipsed 40k in raw numbers though.

3 hours ago, Embir82 said:

In the light of those things saying that X-Wing is dying is, well, stupid.

Which is something I don't believe I've said. What I have said is that the game has some serious NPE, design flaws and poor design philosophy that's ultimately going to lead to the downfall of the game.

3 hours ago, Embir82 said:

I think you don't realize how ridiculous your statement is.
What is more probable - that I had incredible streak of good luck in the span of one month or that I just flew well?

Well... Let's say that the probability of rolling hot in a game - in comparison to your opponents - is about 20%. The probability of then rolling hot in comparison to your opponents throughout 6 roudns is 0.000064, or 0.0064 %. Granted, that's rather unlikely. But you only need to win 5 rounds to make most cuts, and the probability of rolling hot in 5 rounds is 0.1536%. Over 500 players you're looking at a 76.8% chance of someone being carried through to the cut almost entirely by chance.

I have hard numbers from Vassal game analysis that show I've had incredibly unlucky streaks (-12 of luck, if you know anything about the Lady Luck program) against incredibly hot players for more than a week, or about 6 games. It's possible, and actually very likely.

3 hours ago, Embir82 said:

I am good at X-Wing, not some imaginary game that exists only in your head. And no, my list didn't have Miranda, Nym, Ghost, Fenn, Harpoons, TLT or any bombs.
Here it is:
...

Astonishing! You're flying a bog-standard Lowhrick - the second best ship in the game (according to list juggler's meta-wing). You're flying the strongest form of Ezra - 4th best in the game. you're flying Poe, who is a little ways down at 14 on the pilot list, but heck, he's better than Rey at the moment and is an excellent point fortress. So no, you're not flying a meta list, but you're flying what I'd call a tier 0.5 list, with a large amount of meta components, just not put together quite optimally. If you simply swapped out Poe for Miranda, you'd arrive at a meta list.

3 hours ago, Embir82 said:

And again, what is your point? It is tournament, there will be always people with 1-5 record, despite the meta, it is harsh nature of any competitive event. Also there always will be some unhappy people - anecdotal evidence is not an evidence.

Unhappy people? How about people so bitter about losing to the exact same thing three times in a row that they stop playing for 6 months? Because it happens. Anecdotal evidence is evidence, merely on a singular rather than a global scale. If you add up anecdotal evidence it becomes statistically relevant. So you see, attendance at a large event means nothing by itself. You've got to look at players across the success spectrum to see how opinions on the game are forming.

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16 hours ago, Sephlar said:

I took a list with Crimson Specialist to a 5-1 record and 3rd at Vancouver CAC.

I went 3-3 with 2 Resistance Bombers and an Auzituck at my CAC. Won the first 3 matches 300-0 and made it to the top table. When the TOBsaid that all top table prizes were the same despite ranking I focused more on X-Wingo than winning.  I gave a triple Resistance Bomber list that’s fun as well. 

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On 4/11/2018 at 10:03 AM, Embir82 said:

Major Juggler, with all respect, is not an arbiter when it comes to X-Wing - he is just a guy who dislikes X-Wing and tries to promote his house rules under the invalid name of "community mod".

 

I would very much like for Community Mod to take off as a true community effort, but right now I'm the only one boostrapping it, so yes at present a more accurate name would be "JugglerWing". Right now it doesn't really exist as "a thing" because it doesn't have a squad builder yet, so the issue is moot anyway. But I choose "Community Mod" branding because it more closely aligns with where I would like it to go long-term. I'm all very up-front about this in the first post of the thread.

 

I don't know what an "X-wing arbiter" would be, but I did essentially write the book on unit cost efficiencies. That's an old thread and I have (non publicly) updated some of the underpinnings to 1) implement a full action economy on a per-ship basis; 2) some mathematical tweaks to more correctly model the effectiveness:cost general power curve 3) update the reference power level for the current meta. But the basic premise  is still very applicable, and is considerably more well-equipped to predict game balance than the developers are, unless they are intentionally creating consistent power creep.

 

See below in response to disliking Xwing. :)

 

On 4/11/2018 at 10:16 AM, Hexdot said:

And if many of us continue playing this great game is because gentle players (Odanan, Major Juggler) mantain the Hope. Saying that they "dislike" X Wing is... not accurate. 

 

Play as you like but, as said before, Winter is coming. Adapt. Improve. Enjoy.

 

Thank you for the kind words. :) Indeed it is not that I "dislike" X-wing as a whole. The fundamentals are really solid, and the analog movement mechanics is really what makes the game "interesting" to me (that and being Star Wars obviously).  What I dislike is the game imbalances that have resulted in a meta with a very narrow list of competitive squads. To be fair it has been this way for X-wing's entire existence, but recent waves have pushed the game more towards card interactions that reduce the impact of meaningful positional choices. Of course, a majority of players don't chase the meta squads, but a majority of players also aren't consistently playing at the X-0 and X-1 tables at Regionals.

 

At the last Regionals I went to a few weeks ago, I intentionally took a sub-meta list because I didn't feel like I would have fun flying Ghost / Fenn for 9 hours, and I didn't actually care about winning the tournament. Top 4 templates would have been nice, but I already have 2 sets. I figured going in that I would go 4-2 and miss the cut. As expected, I went 4-2 and missed the 16 person cut at #20 out of 136. At this point I'm going to take a break from competitive X-wing for a while, including local game store league night. We have a few players that still take Ghost / Fenn which is very unpleasant to play against with any sub meta list, let alone in a 60 minute format.

Edited by MajorJuggler

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3 hours ago, Astech said:

Your data is quantitative, versus the more common qualitative; it doesn't automatically make it better. It's nice to know X-wing has eclipsed 40k in raw numbers though.

Which is something I don't believe I've said. What I have said is that the game has some serious NPE, design flaws and poor design philosophy that's ultimately going to lead to the downfall of the game.

Well... Let's say that the probability of rolling hot in a game - in comparison to your opponents - is about 20%. The probability of then rolling hot in comparison to your opponents throughout 6 roudns is 0.000064, or 0.0064 %. Granted, that's rather unlikely. But you only need to win 5 rounds to make most cuts, and the probability of rolling hot in 5 rounds is 0.1536%. Over 500 players you're looking at a 76.8% chance of someone being carried through to the cut almost entirely by chance.

I have hard numbers from Vassal game analysis that show I've had incredibly unlucky streaks (-12 of luck, if you know anything about the Lady Luck program) against incredibly hot players for more than a week, or about 6 games. It's possible, and actually very likely.

Astonishing! You're flying a bog-standard Lowhrick - the second best ship in the game (according to list juggler's meta-wing). You're flying the strongest form of Ezra - 4th best in the game. you're flying Poe, who is a little ways down at 14 on the pilot list, but heck, he's better than Rey at the moment and is an excellent point fortress. So no, you're not flying a meta list, but you're flying what I'd call a tier 0.5 list, with a large amount of meta components, just not put together quite optimally. If you simply swapped out Poe for Miranda, you'd arrive at a meta list.

Unhappy people? How about people so bitter about losing to the exact same thing three times in a row that they stop playing for 6 months? Because it happens. Anecdotal evidence is evidence, merely on a singular rather than a global scale. If you add up anecdotal evidence it becomes statistically relevant. So you see, attendance at a large event means nothing by itself. You've got to look at players across the success spectrum to see how opinions on the game are forming.

Let me just say that this post proved that there is no sense in talking with you. On this forum I've never seen so many ridiculous statements cumulated in one single post in a long time.

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On April 10, 2018 at 10:17 PM, theBitterFig said:

Last Jedi hate is mostly a myth.  Movie sold like mad.  Some might downplay that, any Star Wars movie is going to fill theatres, but Blu-Ray sold like mad so clearly folks liked something.  There's a small but vocal group of folks mad about The Last Jedi, but overall reception is quite positive.

I'd imagine it depends on the demograpghic of your social peer group. As a man in his mid forties, my peer group almost all despise the movie or otherwise weakly triy to justify it, but the group rejects any justification.

My daughter loves it. It was always for kids, really. Those that grew up with the films as a core part of their growth are the ones that appear to despise it.

Edited by Larky Bobble

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1 hour ago, Larky Bobble said:

I'd imagine it depends on the demograpghic of your social peer group. As a man in his mid forties, my peer group almost all despise the movie or otherwise weakly triy to justify it, but the group rejects any justification.

My daughter loves it. It was always for kids, really. Those that grew up with the films as a core part of their growth are the ones that appear to despise it.

I grew up with the films.  Star Wars has been part of my life as long as I can remember.  I'm late 30s.  There are lots of folks like me who love TLJ, or have only minor issues.

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1 minute ago, theBitterFig said:

I grew up with the films.  Star Wars has been part of my life as long as I can remember.  I'm late 30s.  There are lots of folks like me who love TLJ, or have only minor issues.

40s here, been there from the beginning.  I’m glad for the fresh start TLJ offers.  There’s no knowing where the story will go for Ep 9.  Certainly no rehash of RotJ!

could have done without the space horses tho.  

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