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DXCrazytrain

Hoth Open Final

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I feel like a pair of Tie/D defenders would make Swiss cheese out of TLT Miranda. You blast her with ion canon to set her movement at 1⬆️ Or you blast her with tractor beam to bring her in close, out her on a roid, and her agility is reduced by 1. What’s the problem?

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There are plenty of games that are both competitive AND fun, and trying to be competitive does not necessarily mean the player doesn’t want to have fun.

The fact that some believe that being competitivet inherently means giving up fun is a underlying premise is weird to me.

 

 

Edited by Tlfj200

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24 minutes ago, Pooleman said:

I feel like a pair of Tie/D defenders would make Swiss cheese out of TLT Miranda. You blast her with ion canon to set her movement at 1⬆️ Or you blast her with tractor beam to bring her in close, out her on a roid, and her agility is reduced by 1. What’s the problem?

Beating Miranda isnt the problem. We can all do that and have done it. There are a # of ways to do it particularly when Miranda does not have a free evade every turn and damage spreading. Fewer ways to take down Miranda/Lowhrick. But whatever that doesnt matter either. Its all out right beatable. Thats not even a point of debate. No one should care about that. Everything is beatable, sit down, practice figure it out. There is always a way. Even the challenge of getting there can be rewarding in the short term.

The question and the problem is this:

"What does Miranda bring to the game that is fun or tactically interesting for anyone playing the game at any level?" 

Edited by Boom Owl

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8 hours ago, DXCrazytrain said:

Just to reiterate my point, my problem with the final, and the reason I want a nerf, is that both players said it wasn't any fun. Every single facet of Miranda is pure NPE, same with Nym, same with the Ghost.

Bonus points if you can guess what they all have in common.

The willingness to take a known NPE ship in order to win a tournament?

8 hours ago, sozin said:

Is, uh, the answer TLT?

I recently ran the numbers on TLT usage on all "ships in lists that made the cut" in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. You can find it here.

For those who just want the punchline:

  • 2014: 0% (no TLT)
  • 2015: 37% (143 out of 379 samples)
  • 2016: 71% (747 out of 1056 samples)
  • 2017: 71% (978 out of 1368 samples)
  • 2018: 81% (415 out of 510 samples)

Lies, **** lies, statistics? How about this, the number of ship bases that fit into the range 1 band, range 2 band, range 3 band, range 1-2 turret band, and range 2-3 turret band (from this excellent thread, thxkrayts):


Range 1 Band: 29.63 Ship Bases
Range 2 Band: 68.91 Ship Bases
Range 3 Band: 108.17 Ship Bases
Range 1-2 Turret: 98.5 ship bases
Range 2-3 Turret: 177.08 ship bases

So. Goddamn. Good. 

EDIT: Back in 2015 X-Wing Designer Frank Brooks was asked what is his rule of thumb for when an upgrade card is "too good". He used autothrusters as his example, pretending to be a player, said: "Well, I have a small ship with boost, miiiiight as well take autothrusters..."

Miranda, meet TLT. I haven't run the numbers, but I can confidently bet that > 90% of all Mirandas taken in LJ-reported tournaments have TLT stapled to her, and 99% of the ones that made the cut have TLT. 

Sure.  Hit TLT so we can discover the next 1%er.  Only the names will change.  The problem will remain the same as long as this game continues to have such a simple premise for game resolution.

1 hour ago, ScummyRebel said:

What if they had fun except for that specific mirror match? 

It's like saying that WWIII was a hoot until you sat down across the table from a superpower with the exact same game destroying nuclear missile your brought so you would win all your games.  Then you got all pissy because the excitement of troop movements and explosions turned into to a boring game of detente because the other guy brought his nuke. 

5 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

There are plenty of games that are both competitive AND fun, and trying to be competitive does not necessarily mean the player doesn’t want to have fun.

The fact that some believe that being competitivet inherently means giving up fun is a underlying premise is weird to me.

I'm not saying competition can't be fun, but if you start with the premise of winning and not "funning" sometimes winning will be a grind.

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Definition of game

1(1) activity engaged in for diversion or amusement play 
(2) the equipment for a game 
b often derisive or mocking jesting funsport 
2a a procedure or strategy for gaining an end tactic
b an illegal or shady scheme or maneuver racket
3(1) a physical or mental competition conducted according to rules with the participants in direct opposition to each other  
(2) a division of a larger contest  
(3) the number of points necessary to win  
(4) points scored in certain card games (as in all fours) by a player whose cards count up the highest  
(5) the manner of playing in a contest  
(6) the set of rules governing a game  
(7) a particular aspect or phase of play in a game or sport  

a football team's kicking game

b games plural  organized athletics 
(1) a field of gainful activity line

the newspaper game

 
(2) any activity undertaken or regarded as a contest involving rivalry, strategy, or struggle  

the dating game

the game of politics

;  also  the course or period of such an activity 

got into aviation early in the game

 
(3) area of expertise specialty 3  

comedy is not my game

4(1) animals under pursuit or taken in hunting;  especially  wild animals hunted for sport or food 
(2) the flesh of game animals 
b archaic  pluck
c a target or object especially of ridicule or attack  often used in the phrase fair game
Edited by Boom Owl

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24 minutes ago, Darth Meanie said:

The willingness to take a known NPE ship in order to win a tournament?

On the other hand, what tournament winning list in the history of X-wing was never called a NPE by at least some people? I can't recall any.

 

That being said, I do feel the design direction of Rebels is heavily skewed toward abilities prone to generate NPE. Excluding the B/SF 17 as it turned out irrelevant to competitive x-wing, last 3 Rebel ships were the Sheathipede (hard to argue Fenn's ability doesn't make him an NPE for many people), the Auzituck (Lowhrick and Reinforce in general) and Sabine's TIE (Rex and Ahsoka's Combat Phase action shenanigans while being largely untouchable at PS9).

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13 minutes ago, LordBlades said:

That being said, I do feel the design direction of Rebels is heavily skewed toward abilities prone to generate NPE. Excluding the B/SF 17 as it turned out irrelevant to competitive x-wing, last 3 Rebel ships were the Sheathipede (hard to argue Fenn's ability doesn't make him an NPE for many people), the Auzituck (Lowhrick and Reinforce in general) and Sabine's TIE (Rex and Ahsoka's Combat Phase action shenanigans while being largely untouchable at PS9).

Sir, I'd like to introduce you to Crimson Specialist Bob. Bob likes to place bombs wherever he wants with his friend Nym making sure they go off at the right time. Together they'd like you to ask other competitive players out there if they'd like to play a game against them. You'd be surprised how many people don't want to play with Bob and Nym. #PlayWithBob&Nym

Edited by RStan

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6 minutes ago, RStan said:

Sir, I'd like to introduce you to Crimson Specialist Bob. Bob likes to place bombs wherever he wants with his friend Nym making sure they go off at the right time. Together they'd like you to ask other competitive players out there if they'd like to play a game against them. You'd be surprised how many people don't want to play with Bob and Nym. #PlayWithBob&Nym

Fair enough. Upon double checking.meta wing, there is indeed Crimson Specialist just below 30th place.

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45 minutes ago, LordBlades said:

On the other hand, what tournament winning list in the history of X-wing was never called a NPE by at least some people? I can't recall any.

 

That being said, I do feel the design direction of Rebels is heavily skewed toward abilities prone to generate NPE. Excluding the B/SF 17 as it turned out irrelevant to competitive x-wing, last 3 Rebel ships were the Sheathipede (hard to argue Fenn's ability doesn't make him an NPE for many people), the Auzituck (Lowhrick and Reinforce in general) and Sabine's TIE (Rex and Ahsoka's Combat Phase action shenanigans while being largely untouchable at PS9).

Last year it was everyone crying about Scum-Wing, this year it's Rebel synergy.  With any luck, the Imps will rule 2019.

The game is constantly evolving, but there will always be an apex predator.  If you go to Worlds, you can be danged sure to meet it.  If that's an NPE for you, you are probably out of luck.

Saying this is FFG's fault/problem is a bit disingenuous, because a half step down, they have created an amazing game.

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2 hours ago, Darth Meanie said:

Last year it was everyone crying about Scum-Wing, this year it's Rebel synergy.  With any luck, the Imps will rule 2019.

The game is constantly evolving, but there will always be an apex predator.  If you go to Worlds, you can be danged sure to meet it.  If that's an NPE for you, you are probably out of luck.

Saying this is FFG's fault/problem is a bit disingenuous, because a half step down, they have created an amazing game.

So is the argument that it doesn't matter because something else will take its place?   I think that the basic core of the game is incredibly strong; however, we can certainly ask for more from FFG in terms of their development process.   Whether we get it or not is a different story.   I think it's also fair to examine top ships and upgrade cards, especially those that seem to run counter to those core mechanics.   Miranda vs Miranda was ridiculous, what that game really did should underscore what she is in the competitive meta against other lists in that type of a situation.  It shines a light on a variety of things they've already considered bad for the game (point fortress, lower PS being unable to deal with her).

 

Edited by AlexW

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12 hours ago, sozin said:

8 of the top 8 Rebels in the big Mass Regional Swiss today. Something like 13 of 16 IIRC Rebs. 

The competitive scene is off the rails right now, and the driver is asleep at the wheel. I have been on this game for every wave, playtested the first six waves, and led the drive to collect data since 2014 via ListJuggler, and I have never seen it like this before. We are in Crazytown. 

EDIT: I  disagree with the above point. The approach to the game and how it is played is not the problem. The problem is a small collectIon of terribly designed cards:, TLT, Sabine, Traj Sim, Miranda, R2-D2, Bomblet, Ghost Title, Harpoon Missiles, Guidance Chips, Autothrusters, Adaptability, VI, Reinforce, ships with more than six upgrade slots.

I don't really have a big problem with VI and Adaptability. I see the design issues it creates, but I don't mind them. Everything else you said her, I can't agree with more. I even legit like rebel regen, but Miranda is hella dumb with TLT and low, biggs, fenn backup. R2-D2 I actually like (but get that it is worth way more than 4 pts), but I wouldn't mind if all regen was more like Gonk, R5-P9, and Chopper.

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2 minutes ago, emperorscanaries said:

I don't really have a big problem with VI and Adaptability. I see the design issues it creates, but I don't mind them. Everything else you said her, I can't agree with more. I even legit like rebel regen, but Miranda is hella dumb with TLT and low, biggs, fenn backup. R2-D2 I actually like (but get that it is worth way more than 4 pts), but I wouldn't mind if all regen was more like Gonk, R5-P9, and Chopper.

Miranda can be surgically nerfed at least, as the issue is clearly her pilot ability and how it interacts with TLT. TLTs themselves are fine on most of the ships that can field them (well, Y-wings and TIEs are generally considered balanced in their staple 25-point configs).

If I was going for a light-touch nerf, I'd make Miranda's regen either reduce both TLT shots or primary only (both of which move her more towards choosing between damage and regen), and add a clause to Sabine that she only applies if the bomb card is discarded (and she'd still get used anyways, but it brings her closer to properly costed).

Or, you know, they could just bite the bullet and re-point cards... though that probably wouldn't stop Miranda in particular without pointing her clean out of play. The specific interaction is too strong.

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2 hours ago, Darth Meanie said:

Sure.  Hit TLT so we can discover the next 1%er.  Only the names will change.  The problem will remain the same as long as this game continues to have such a simple premise for game resolution.

Darth, can you please explain this one to me in more detail? I've just gone through all the turrets and none of them are even close to TLT!

  • Autoblaster turret: Miranda won't be able to to regen effectively has her sweet spot is kitting out beyond range 1 and regenning with the double TLT slot.
  • Dorsal turret: only range 1-2, and as such hits 55% less surface area as TLT. Miranda's regen function will be substantially reduced. 
  • Blaster turret: also only range 1-2, so just as bad as Dorsal, and has the penalty of having to pay the focus token.
  • Synced turret: same as Blaster and Dorsal.
  • Ion Cannon Turret: same as Synced, Blaster and Dorsal. 

What am I missing?

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11 hours ago, sozin said:

I recently ran the numbers on TLT usage on all "ships in lists that made the cut" in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. You can find it here.

For those who just want the punchline:

  • 2014: 0% (no TLT)
  • 2015: 37% (143 out of 379 samples)
  • 2016: 71% (747 out of 1056 samples)
  • 2017: 71% (978 out of 1368 samples)
  • 2018: 81% (415 out of 510 samples)

Am I reading this right? 81% of all ships in the cut use TLT? Or is it 81% of all ships that can take TLT take TLT in the cut? It cant be the first one.

 

Edited by Boom Owl

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@Boom Owl sure. In 2018 reported data, 1043 lists (out of 8,750 total) have made the cut. Those lists consisted of 2,914 ships. Of those 2,914 ships, 654 had turret slots. Of those 654 ships with turret slots, 510 chose to use it. Of those 510 ships that chose to use the turret slot, 415 of them chose TLT. 415/510 == 81%

Edited by sozin

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The premise that nerfing the tops cards only replaces them with the next batch of top cards and so it utterly pointless, is flawed. Both because it's a textbook example of a Nirvana fallacy and it's missing an entire dimension of the problem. The issue isn't that there is a set of top cards, that's never going to go away, it's the relative power difference between those cards and the average (or the bottom depending on how you want to approach the problem).

When the top cards are only slightly above the mean then player skill and dice variance will allow lists without those top cards to remain competitive. When they're relatively too high, as they are now, many matchups are forgone conclusions.

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The game isn't going to be perfect but that's not a reason to ignore a problem now. They could, and should, also expand the format to official objectives or a campaign or any number of other things but they can do that and still work to fix current balance issues.

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17 minutes ago, sozin said:

@Boom Owl sure. In 2018 reported data, 1043 lists (out of 8,750 total) have made the cut. Those lists consisted of 2,914 ships. Of those 2,914 ships, 654 had turret slots. Of those 654 ships with turret slots, 510 chose to use it. Of those 510 ships that chose to use the turret slot, 415 of them chose TLT. 415/510 == 81%

Do you know the numbers for what percent of lists in the cut include at least one tlt?

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I guess the argument isn't "Don't nerf TLT because that isn't the perfect solution", its more like "There are so many crazy card combinations out there right now, that making non systematic changes is likely to uncover some other terrible thing that 80% of competitive players will flock too." And I agree with that point. FFG/developers have demonstrated an approach to "fixing" things by making tactical changes to individual cards; see the numerous JMK fixes, where each time their articles practically dripped with self-congratulatory "problem solved".

That's why I recommend:

  • addressing all the problem cards at once
  • making playtesting of these "FAQ" type changes public. Many hands make light work. (Note, I'm not asking that all playtesting be public, just the FAQ changes; since these cards have already been spoiled, LFL will not care)

Or just *cough* 2.0 *cough*

Edited by sozin

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17 minutes ago, hawk32 said:

Do you know the numbers for what percent of lists in the cut include at least one tlt?

  • 2016: 1056/6665 == 15.8% 
  • 2017: 1368/8421 ==   16.2%
  • 2018: 510/2914 ==  17.5%

EDIT: actually I answered a different question: what percent of ships in the cut included at least one TLT? Give me a sec to run that Q.

Edited by sozin

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13 hours ago, sozin said:

8 of the top 8 Rebels in the big Mass Regional Swiss today. Something like 13 of 16 IIRC Rebs. 

The competitive scene is off the rails right now, and the driver is asleep at the wheel. I have been on this game for every wave, playtested the first six waves, and led the drive to collect data since 2014 via ListJuggler, and I have never seen it like this before. We are in Crazytown. 

EDIT: I  disagree with the above point. The approach to the game and how it is played is not the problem. The problem is a small collectIon of terribly designed cards:, TLT, Sabine, Traj Sim, Miranda, R2-D2, Bomblet, Ghost Title, Harpoon Missiles, Guidance Chips, Autothrusters, Adaptability, VI, Reinforce, ships with more than six upgrade slots.

From my perspective, it HAS been like this before. You have little sense of history when you say this is the first visit to "Crazytown." R2D2 Poe won worlds years ago. Pre-nerf X7 Defenders were meta warping. Pre-nerf torp Jumpmasters were meta warping. Parattani was the most dominant list ever. Targeted nerfs have happened & generally they have worked well. But, they have exposed an old ugly beast, limitless regen.

Those limitless abilities seem like the major culprit. R2-D2, Miranda regen, Bomblet. Limit these to 4 activations, that's an idea. This would prevent final table final salvos. All the other cards listed are just lower priority & everyone has their subjective opinions about them. TLT is great on Y-wings, an iconic trilogy ship. It is trouble on Miranda, Nym, Ghost. Also, you forgot Expertise, it's auto-include on Rey & many other ships.

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34 minutes ago, sozin said:

Darth, can you please explain this one to me in more detail? I've just gone through all the turrets and none of them are even close to TLT!

  • Autoblaster turret: Miranda won't be able to to regen effectively has her sweet spot is kitting out beyond range 1 and regenning with the double TLT slot.
  • Dorsal turret: only range 1-2, and as such hits 55% less surface area as TLT. Miranda's regen function will be substantially reduced. 
  • Blaster turret: also only range 1-2, so just as bad as Dorsal, and has the penalty of having to pay the focus token.
  • Synced turret: same as Blaster and Dorsal.
  • Ion Cannon Turret: same as Synced, Blaster and Dorsal. 

What am I missing?

Sorry.  I was not referring to turrets exclusively.  Just that when you kill TLT some other card will become the next PLZ Nerf/NPE/1%er.

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32 minutes ago, sozin said:

@Boom Owl sure. In 2018 reported data, 1043 lists (out of 8,750 total) have made the cut. Those lists consisted of 2,914 ships. Of those 2,914 ships, 654 had turret slots. Of those 654 ships with turret slots, 510 chose to use it. Of those 510 ships that chose to use the turret slot, 415 of them chose TLT. 415/510 == 81%

That doesn't says much other than turrets are pretty bad (and we already knew that before TLT was out).

I'm more impressed by those 19% non tlt

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