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KrisWall

Release Schedule Best Guess

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Hello all.  I know some of you track FFG releases.  I've been doing the same for a bit.  Based on their Upcoming page, LCGs tend to average the following...

  • In Development for around 14 days.
  • At the Printer for around 25 days.
  • On the Boat for around 36 days.
  • Shipping to Stores for around 14 days.

This is really a best guess average based on the last 30 or so LCG products across all product lines to be announced/released.

Right now, we have the following things announced for Arkham Horror.

  • Dim Carcosa - In Stores Now on 3/22.
  • The Labyrinths of Lunacy - At the Printer as of 12/13.
  • Return to the Night of the Zealot - Announced and presumably In Development as of 1/9.
  • The Forgotten Age - Announced and presumably In Development as of 1/31.
  • Threads of Fate - At the Printer as of 3/19.

Based on my averages above, we can guesstimate a target date/week of release.

  • Dim Carcosa - known to be 3/22.
  • The Labyrinths of Lunacy - guess date is 2/26, which is clearly wrong.
  • Return to the Night of the Zealot - guess date is 4/8, which is probably a bit early.
  • The Forgotten Age - guess date is 4/30.
  • Threads of Fate - guess date is 6/2.

We also know that products only hit on Thursdays and that LCGs tend to have a more or less monthly release schedule.  What this all comes down to is that my best guess is...

  • Late March Release - Dim Carcosa
  • Late April Release - The Forgotten Age
  • Late May Release - Threads of Fate

RttNotZ and TLoL will probably show up as random extras alongside the standard release schedule.  I think that's how the last two standalones worked.  Any thoughts?  Really, I just want my stuff quicker.  :)

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Well, Dim Carcosa comes out today so I agree with late March for that one! After that I think we will see:

  • Late April Release - Return to the Night of the Zealot
  • Late May Release - The Forgotten Age
  • Late June Release - Threads of Fate

I recall (but could be mistaken) that there was a two month gap between the end of The Dunwich Legacy and The Path to Carcosa, and The Return to the Night of the Zealot would slot nicely into such a gap between The Path to Carcosa and The Forgotten Age. Once The Forgotten Age comes out I'd expect to see mythos packs for the cycle come out about 4 weeks apart based on what we have currently seen. My retailer of choice also has Q2 for Return to the Night of the Zealot and TBC for The Forgotten Age. Clearly this isn't proof, but it makes me think that Return to the Night of the Zealot will come out before The Forgotten Age.

Labyrinths of Lunacy will almost certainly show up just as we've all given up hope of it ever actually being released. I've got my fingers crossed that it is at least before GenCon 2018 (August), at which we might see a new standalone scenario.

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These are all good guesses and seem sane.

One quick question, a lot of people are very sure that RttNotZ will come out before tFA.  Is there any reason for that or it is an assumption?

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Jobu said:

These are all good guesses and seem sane.

One quick question, a lot of people are very sure that RttNotZ will come out before tFA.  Is there any reason for that or it is an assumption?

I’m basing it on the fact it was announced first. Plus I wouldn’t think it makes sense to interrupt the flow of the following mythos packs to have it pop up in between them. But it’s a brand new type of product, so it’s all guesswork really!

Edited by General Zodd

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2 hours ago, Jobu said:

These are all good guesses and seem sane.

One quick question, a lot of people are very sure that RttNotZ will come out before tFA.  Is there any reason for that or it is an assumption?

I think this is based on LoL being physically completed (out at GenCon 8/18/2017) in the gap between final dunwich (lost in Time and space 7/6/17) and carcosa deluxe box (9/14/2017). Plus it allows them slack time in their actual product releases to not have forced a full month's worth of workload during December, when I assume they shut down for at least a week and people take vacation s.

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Mostly I just wonder why there is no mention of TFA and RtNotZ AT ALL on the Upcoming page, and I'm just flabbergasted that there is nothing new at all about LoL since DECEMBER!

Apparently the Spanish and French FF pages say that TFA is releasing Friday, April 6th, in Europe in those languages. I think that if it were releasing in English I would have heard from my store's owner about it, so... weird.

I did see a catalogue in the store from the owner's supplier and there's a tentative release date of May of this year for TFA.

Nevertheless this is all very strange and at the very least I'd like to see the Upcoming page updated with TFA and RtNotZ.

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So I've been following LCGs pretty obsessively since the first Netrunner Core Set and Arkham since day 1. The trend I have noticed is that when a product moves from one status to another everything in the same cycle moves as well (meaning when the deluxe moves from on the boat to shipping the first pack moves to on the boat, the second one moves to at the printer, etc). I have also noticed with Arkham that the print on demand stuff is haphazard and has no real schedule. Novels have been shipped out the day they were announced, missions have come out months after they were supposed to, Labyrinths of Lunacy was announced almost a year ago and we still don't have it. So I would say no safe assumption can be made about Return to the Night of the Zealot or Labyrinths of Lunacy. They could release tomorrow or next year for all we know. As for the next deluxe... The first pack "went to the printers" 3/19. Arkham stuff usually moves on Thursdays and when it doesn't it usually follows schedule as though it moved on the following Thursday. If the deluxe went "on the boat" that Thursday (3/22) I suspect it will come off the boat 5 weeks later on 4/26, and be shipping for two weeks. That realistically puts us at probably 5/10 release date for the deluxe.

This is all speculation on my part of course, and I understand that the statuses don't actually mean anything behind the curtain, but they do tend to work like clockwork in most cases. This is just weird cause FFG is still keeping us in the dark by not showing the status of our 2 most highly anticipated products. It's probably a sign that they aren't confident of a release date themselves yet on any of it.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Sildric said:

So I've been following LCGs pretty obsessively since the first Netrunner Core Set and Arkham since day 1. The trend I have noticed is that when a product moves from one status to another everything in the same cycle moves as well (meaning when the deluxe moves from on the boat to shipping the first pack moves to on the boat, the second one moves to at the printer, etc). I have also noticed with Arkham that the print on demand stuff is haphazard and has no real schedule. Novels have been shipped out the day they were announced, missions have come out months after they were supposed to, Labyrinths of Lunacy was announced almost a year ago and we still don't have it. So I would say no safe assumption can be made about Return to the Night of the Zealot or Labyrinths of Lunacy. They could release tomorrow or next year for all we know. As for the next deluxe... The first pack "went to the printers" 3/19. Arkham stuff usually moves on Thursdays and when it doesn't it usually follows schedule as though it moved on the following Thursday. If the deluxe went "on the boat" that Thursday (3/22) I suspect it will come off the boat 5 weeks later on 4/26, and be shipping for two weeks. That realistically puts us at probably 5/10 release date for the deluxe.

This is all speculation on my part of course, and I understand that the statuses don't actually mean anything behind the curtain, but they do tend to work like clockwork in most cases. This is just weird cause FFG is still keeping us in the dark by not showing the status of our 2 most highly anticipated products. It's probably a sign that they aren't confident of a release date themselves yet on any of it.

Good observations.

However... calling last October (when LoL was announced) "almost a year ago" is a bit of an exaggeration.  ;)

Edited by KBlumhardt

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On ‎3‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 10:09 AM, Assussanni said:

Well, Dim Carcosa comes out today so I agree with late March for that one! After that I think we will see:

  • Late April Release - Return to the Night of the Zealot
  • Late May Release - The Forgotten Age
  • Late June Release - Threads of Fate

I recall (but could be mistaken) that there was a two month gap between the end of The Dunwich Legacy and The Path to Carcosa, and The Return to the Night of the Zealot would slot nicely into such a gap between The Path to Carcosa and The Forgotten Age. Once The Forgotten Age comes out I'd expect to see mythos packs for the cycle come out about 4 weeks apart based on what we have currently seen. My retailer of choice also has Q2 for Return to the Night of the Zealot and TBC for The Forgotten Age. Clearly this isn't proof, but it makes me think that Return to the Night of the Zealot will come out before The Forgotten Age.

Labyrinths of Lunacy will almost certainly show up just as we've all given up hope of it ever actually being released. I've got my fingers crossed that it is at least before GenCon 2018 (August), at which we might see a new standalone scenario.

I'm not convinced that they'll take a break between the Carcosa Cycle and the Forgotten Age Cycle.  The reason the deluxe for Carcosa was delayed was because it was close enough to GenCon.

I think they'll release Return to the Night of the Zealot and Labyrinth of Lunacy outside of the release schedule for the main cycles.

37 minutes ago, KBlumhardt said:

Good observations.

However... calling last October (when LoL was announced) "almost a year ago" is a bit of an exaggeration.  ;)

Unless you say that LoL was announced in preparation for GenCon, then it's closer.  :P  However, I recall that the LotR:LCG GenCon missions were released the following summers.

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Okay, here's my take on a possible release schedule based on Carcosa News and Release Date:

Apr 17 - Path to Carcosa Announcement, 1 investigator revealed (21 weeks prior to release)
Jun 6 - First Mythos Pack Announcement (14 weeks prior to release)
Jun 30 - Second Mythos Pack Announcement (12 weeks prior to release)
Jul 12 - Preview of Path to Carcosa (9 weeks prior to release)
Jul 18 - Preview of Path to Carcosa, 2 investigators revealed (8 weeks prior to release)
July 25 - Preview of Path to Carcosa, 1 investigator revealed (7 weeks prior to release)
Aug 1 - Preview of Path to Carcosa, 1 investigator revealed (6 weeks prior to release)
Aug 15 - Preview of Path to Carcosa, final investigator revealed (4 weeks prior to release)
Sep 14 - Path to Carcosa Release

Now what we know so far about Forgotten Age, trying to match it to Carcosa news:

Jan 31 - The Forgotten Age Announcement, 1 investigator revealed (21 weeks to release = June 27th)
Feb 28 - First Mythos Pack Announcement (14 weeks to release = June 6th)
Mar 16 - Preview of The Forgotten Age, 2 investigators revealed (8 weeks to release = May 11th)
Mar 27 - Second Mythos Pack Announcement (12 weeks to release = June 19th)
Mar 30 - Preview of The Forgotten Age, 1 investigator revealed (7 weeks to release = May 18th)
Apr 13 - Preview of The Forgotten Age (9 weeks to release = June 15th)

Average out those estimated release dates and line it up with a Thursday = June 7th.

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59 minutes ago, Adira said:

Okay, here's my take on a possible release schedule based on Carcosa News and Release Date:

Apr 17 - Path to Carcosa Announcement, 1 investigator revealed (21 weeks prior to release)
Jun 6 - First Mythos Pack Announcement (14 weeks prior to release)
Jun 30 - Second Mythos Pack Announcement (12 weeks prior to release)
Jul 12 - Preview of Path to Carcosa (9 weeks prior to release)
Jul 18 - Preview of Path to Carcosa, 2 investigators revealed (8 weeks prior to release)
July 25 - Preview of Path to Carcosa, 1 investigator revealed (7 weeks prior to release)
Aug 1 - Preview of Path to Carcosa, 1 investigator revealed (6 weeks prior to release)
Aug 15 - Preview of Path to Carcosa, final investigator revealed (4 weeks prior to release)
Sep 14 - Path to Carcosa Release

Now what we know so far about Forgotten Age, trying to match it to Carcosa news:

Jan 31 - The Forgotten Age Announcement, 1 investigator revealed (21 weeks to release = June 27th)
Feb 28 - First Mythos Pack Announcement (14 weeks to release = June 6th)
Mar 16 - Preview of The Forgotten Age, 2 investigators revealed (8 weeks to release = May 11th)
Mar 27 - Second Mythos Pack Announcement (12 weeks to release = June 19th)
Mar 30 - Preview of The Forgotten Age, 1 investigator revealed (7 weeks to release = May 18th)
Apr 13 - Preview of The Forgotten Age (9 weeks to release = June 15th)

Average out those estimated release dates and line it up with a Thursday = June 7th.

I saw in one of my local stores that the Forgotten Age was available for pre order and is releasing May 31st.

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Keep in mind that Carcosa should have been released mid-April. There was shipping issues related to L5R I believe. So that would move it to late May. right when packs are normally released, except with a 1 month gap.

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9 hours ago, Radix2309 said:

Keep in mind that Carcosa should have been released mid-April. There was shipping issues related to L5R I believe. So that would move it to late May. right when packs are normally released, except with a 1 month gap.

Well, all of Dunwich was released mid-month, not end of month like Carcosa, so I don't think we can say what's "normal" for releases.  And Carcosa was announced in April, so I don't know why you think it should have been released then.  I think Dunwich was still coming out in April.

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Fun details: a chap on the Arkham discord rang FFG yesterday, and asked why TFA and RtNotZ weren't on the Upcoming page. He was put on hold, they asked marketing, it sounded (to him) (and I appreciate this is somewhat Chinese-whispers now) like it was just an error and.... lo, they are both on the Upcoming page now. Except: they are at a step or two behind Threads of Fate. Anyway, all of this is to say a) we know why they appeared (someone rang) and b) this is further confirmation that the Upcoming page isn't really a reliable source for dates of releases until right before release. Anyway, Sildric and Adira's estimates above seemed reasonable and well-reasoned! 

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1 hour ago, Adira said:

Well, all of Dunwich was released mid-month, not end of month like Carcosa, so I don't think we can say what's "normal" for releases.  And Carcosa was announced in April, so I don't know why you think it should have been released then.  I think Dunwich was still coming out in April.

He means Forgotten Age when he says Carcossa.  Carcossa was released in Sept.

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1 hour ago, zooeyglass said:

b) this is further confirmation that the Upcoming page isn't really a reliable source for dates of releases until right before release.

I've always suspected this. I mean, there are some Adventure packs from LOTR LCG that have been "On the Boat" since December 2016! That's a long boat ride!

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On 4/18/2018 at 9:49 PM, Radix2309 said:

I mean mid-August, not mid-April. Based on pretty much everything, it was supposed to be out the week after GenCon.

Gotcha, that makes more sense!

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The French and Spanish equivalents of the "Upcoming" page have The Forgotten Age down as releasing on 11th May, which would be a 10th May release for the US.

The French page also lists June as the month of release for both Return to The Night of the Zealot and Labyrinths of Lunacy, although the Spanish page has everything as Q2.

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On 4/24/2018 at 4:50 AM, Assussanni said:

The French and Spanish equivalents of the "Upcoming" page have The Forgotten Age down as releasing on 11th May, which would be a 10th May release for the US.

The French page also lists June as the month of release for both Return to The Night of the Zealot and Labyrinths of Lunacy, although the Spanish page has everything as Q2.

June is part of Q2.  A June release would be a late Q2 release.

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