[Mafia] Rebel Runners - Day 1

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

1 minute ago, Visovics said:

Biggest flaw in the plan: assume that scum are not just waiting the second vote on someone so they can turbo

With a 3/2 split, scum can turbo the first town-on-town vote that posts.  Which is why we can be fairly sure that no such votes have occurred yet, assuming both rational play and continuous engagement of scum.

[Visovics 1,675]

Just now, WigTii said:

@Visovics

What is your current read of me?

 

Indecision. Still have some lingering thoughts of you being scum from the previous cases, but also been thinking you are town lately

[WigTii 279]

4 hours ago, Visovics said:

Honestly, most my scummy reads have been far off, so I’m hesitant to follow on them. Although I’m reading JJ and Mad as most town rn

You posted this 4 hours ago.  Do you still think this? 

[Visovics 1,675]

5 minutes ago, WigTii said:

You posted this 4 hours ago.  Do you still think this? 

Yes, Ard has the one with the scummiest vibes for me

[WigTii 279]

1 minute ago, Visovics said:

Yes, Ard has the one with the scummiest vibes for me

Thank you for answering my questions.  I am carefully considering my vote and I will cast it soon. 

[Visovics 1,675]

OMG just re-reading Ard’s plan for some reason only now I get it. For some reason I was thinking on 4 to hammer. This changes all, starting to think JJ Wig is the team now...

[Madaghmire 7,274]

13 minutes ago, Visovics said:

Indecision. Still have some lingering thoughts of you being scum from the previous cases, but also been thinking you are town lately

 

1 minute ago, Visovics said:

Yes, Ard has the one with the scummiest vibes for me

So then who are your scum? So far you’ve got four of us as town (assuming you would read yourself as town if asked) 

I see wiig as confirmed town. So it comes down to which of you two I believe.

I was leaning Ard myself before his post. Now, I simply dont know who JJ’s confederate is. But I still feel good about JJ. (Being scum)

[Visovics 1,675]

1 minute ago, Madaghmire said:

 

So then who are your scum? So far you’ve got four of us as town (assuming you would read yourself as town if asked) 

I see wiig as confirmed town. So it comes down to which of you two I believe.

I was leaning Ard myself before his post. Now, I simply dont know who JJ’s confederate is. But I still feel good about JJ. (Being scum)

JJ Wig is what I believe to be scum team. With not long left, are we all agreed JJ looks scum? Really scared of putting that vote down

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

1 minute ago, Visovics said:

JJ Wig is what I believe to be scum team. With not long left, are we all agreed JJ looks scum? Really scared of putting that vote down

Vis trying to save himself by distancing.  He can still win it with JJ down if he can convince us he's not in league with JJ--with the situation looking dire for JJ anyway, he's considering Hail Mary bussing him.

Just want to reiterate in case I die tonight:  if JJ flips scum, I am about 90% sure the other one is Vis.

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

Lack of engagement is the only way it's not JJ+Vis.  Which is not outside the realm of possibility--it's just hard to account for in a deductive framework.

[Visovics 1,675]

Just now, Ardaedhel said:

Vis trying to save himself by distancing.  He can still win it with JJ down if he can convince us he's not in league with JJ--with the situation looking dire for JJ anyway, he's considering Hail Mary bussing him.

Just want to reiterate in case I die tonight:  if JJ flips scum, I am about 90% sure the other one is Vis.

In my head, if JJ flips scum it can be either you or Wig as the last scum. Although if you do die tonight I’ll be sure its wig

[WigTii 279]

2 minutes ago, Visovics said:

JJ Wig is what I believe to be scum team. With not long left, are we all agreed JJ looks scum? Really scared of putting that vote down

I think I may vote for Mad. 

[WigTii 279]

but then again...

 

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

3 minutes ago, Visovics said:

In my head, if JJ flips scum it can be either you or Wig as the last scum. Although if you do die tonight I’ll be sure its wig

Where is the hole in my logic here then?

Specifically, why would JJs have voted for me there instead of anyone else, when he wasn't in immediate danger and he and I could have just waited it out and jumped on a town-on-town accusation?

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

On 12/31/2017 at 5:01 PM, Onidsen said:

Bump

[Visovics 1,675]

2 minutes ago, Ardaedhel said:

Where is the hole in my logic here then?

Specifically, why would JJs have voted for me there instead of anyone else, when he wasn't in immediate danger and he and I could have just waited it out and jumped on a town-on-town accusation?

Knowing I’m town, JJ must be town, and therefore you just gave away your scum partner if your post is to be followed...

[WigTii 279]

3 hours ago, Ardaedhel said:

Mad and Ard are the same alignment.
Vis and JJs are the same alignment.

Mad and Ard think I'm town. 

Vis and JJ see me as scum. 

One pair is right, the other is wrong. 

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

Just now, Visovics said:

Knowing I’m town, JJ must be town

@WigTii, @Madaghmire, note:  exactly the same defense JJ made.

1 hour ago, JJs Juggernaut said:

I know I’m town, which then means vis isn’t scum since he’d have hammered me.

[Visovics 1,675]

##vote Ardhaedel

now this is just trying to throw shade too hard. You posted the logic, and it’s indeed flawless, meaning I’m confident of JJ being town rn, and with scum trying to push their lynch

[WigTii 279]

On ‎12‎/‎31‎/‎2017 at 8:01 PM, Onidsen said:

 

Not much time left.

[WigTii 279]

Anyone care to change their vote before I cast mine???

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

1 minute ago, Visovics said:

##vote Ardhaedel

now this is just trying to throw shade too hard. You posted the logic, and it’s indeed flawless, meaning I’m confident of JJ being town rn, and with scum trying to push their lynch

Not surprised, given that Vis + JJs as a voting bloc is what I predicted.

@WigTii, all down to you.  Nothing that's happened today reveals much on scum vs town of either bloc, IMO, and will rely on the combined records of Mad+Ard vs Vis+JJs.

[Onidsen 571]

If I've got it right...

5 players, 3 to lynch

@Visovics -

@Madaghmire 

@Ardaedhel - JJ, Vis

@JJs Juggernaut - Mad, Ard

@WigTii

 

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

Just now, Onidsen said:

If I've got it right...

5 players, 3 to lynch

@Visovics -

@Madaghmire 

@Ardaedhel - JJ, Vis

@JJs Juggernaut - Mad, Ard

@WigTii

 

That's my count as well.

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

2 minutes ago, WigTii said:

Anyone care to change their vote before I cast mine???

Nope.

All I ask is please don't split the vote, as today is LyLo (assuming there were more than 2 scum to begin with).  Either me or Vis (obvious which one I think you should go, heh).