[Mafia] Rebel Runners - Day 1

[Visovics 1,675]

@JJs Juggernaut that’s indeed an interesting point by Mad, why haven’t you voted for the past 3 days?

[Madaghmire 7,274]

No one else has anything to say? Seriously?

[Visovics 1,675]

1 hour ago, Madaghmire said:

No one else has anything to say? Seriously?

I was already lost, then had Cninj on my sight and he ALSO was town, so rn I’m not getting any solid reads

[WigTii 279]

I've popped in a couple times today...didn't see anyone posting...figured everyone might be away because of the holiday. 

I don't have any leads either.  So, going back to the beginning to do another read to see if anything strikes me as interesting or odd given where things stand now.  

[Madaghmire 7,274]

Well I still feel good about where my vote is. If you want more on it, feel free to read all like 8 (not a tally, making a point) of JJ’s posts and get back to me.

[WigTii 279]

3 minutes ago, Madaghmire said:

Well I still feel good about where my vote is. If you want more on it, feel free to read all like 8 (not a tally, making a point) of JJ’s posts and get back to me.

I will.  I'm going to give additional attention to the posts by those who are left.  

[JJs Juggernaut 1,843]

On ‎12‎/‎31‎/‎2017 at 9:30 PM, Madaghmire said:

Well, with five of us left, I’m gonna go back to my read before Toad got all silly with me.

##vote JJs Juggernaut

I ran through the short version yesterday. He never gave us an answer that we needed to clear Gnips, and I haven’t seen the kind of insight I expect to see from him when he’s playing town. I think he’s been scum-marining for a while now, and I’m not gonna let him keep it up. Additionally, his voting record screams “I’m trying to stay under the radar”. Ebon D1, whatever, Toad D2, No one d3-5. No one!

 

Plain and simple; I'm basically just done with the game. With my free time gone, I've lost the desire to spend much time playing this game. I thought about asking for a mod-kill but didn't want to handicap the town with another free townie kill, especially after Ebon lost it. I was going to check in before the last few deadlines, but one of the nights ended early (think it was Pod's death) and since then the days have ended before my lunch break. Since that day I also haven't had any reads, as everyone I though was scum has died and ended up town. I'd be just blindly pointing fingers at this point. Lynch me if you want, but then we lose. I'm sorry I wasn't able to help more. I think our time is better spent looking at the past voting records, at least I haven't been killing fellow townies. 

[Madaghmire 7,274]

On 12/31/2017 at 8:01 PM, Onidsen said:

[Madaghmire 7,274]

11 hours ago, JJs Juggernaut said:

Plain and simple; I'm basically just done with the game. With my free time gone, I've lost the desire to spend much time playing this game. I thought about asking for a mod-kill but didn't want to handicap the town with another free townie kill, especially after Ebon lost it. I was going to check in before the last few deadlines, but one of the nights ended early (think it was Pod's death) and since then the days have ended before my lunch break. Since that day I also haven't had any reads, as everyone I though was scum has died and ended up town. I'd be just blindly pointing fingers at this point. Lynch me if you want, but then we lose. I'm sorry I wasn't able to help more. I think our time is better spent looking at the past voting records, at least I haven't been killing fellow townies. 

I hate IRL stuff man. I know its an issue you contend with, but its exceptionally hard to evaluate from this end. I’ll consider this and see if I can find a better read.

[Madaghmire 7,274]

Ard, Wiig, Vis? I know at least one of you are scum but also at least one of you must be town. Anything at all? 

[JJs Juggernaut 1,843]

Just a moment of time on my lunch break. I realized with only 3 town left we need my vote to be able to outvote the scum. 

At this point I’m just going with the person who seems the most scummy, and based on voting records has been in on most of the townie lynches. I hope this is the right call.

 

##vote ard 

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

I dunno, man.  I would've said Vis, but I also had him tied up pretty strongly with GNips and I was wrong there. 

Jugger has a pretty strong record supporting his IRL issues, but that also doesn't particularly comment one way or the other on his alignment. 

Mad was a strong advocate in bringing down Pod (though that's also probably partly because he's always hated Pod's Big Shaq thing), so I've got him solidly in the town.

Leaving Wig, who has what appears to be an airtight claim to town, but hasn't really been doing much with it.

So, I'm leaning toward Vis/Jugger, and between the two, I've had some hinky reads on Vis but not JJs (which could easily be due to his higher activity vice JJs, but we work with what we've got), so I'm inclined to go Vis.

##vote @Visovics

[Visovics 1,675]

Honestly, most my scummy reads have been far off, so I’m hesitant to follow on them. Although I’m reading JJ and Mad as most town rn

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

Okay, I'm working on some reasoning here, but just realized we're in a very tenuous spot (maybe I'm the last person that occurred to, but so be it).  Therefore I ask that town not shift votes until I've got the post up.

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

Okay, so, three votes out, one each on three different targets.  Three votes to hammer.

1) Mad votes JJs
2) JJs votes Ard
3) Ard votes Vis

With (presumably) two scum left out there and three town, we would expect scum to immediately pile on the first town-on-town accusation, which would end it.

Which means*:

There is no town-on-town accusation in that list.
There could be a scum-on-scum accusation.  This is unlikely as they need only wait for a single town-on-town vote and then end it, whereas even fake bussing at this point could result in a scum lynch and lose the game for them.  Therefore, I will assume no scum-on-scum votes here.
With 5 players left, at least one on the above list must be scum.

Mad and JJs cannot both be town.
JJs and Ard cannot both be town.
Vis and Ard cannot both be town.

Therefore, Mad and Ard are the same alignment.
Vis and JJs are the same alignment.

The assumption here is that scum is paying attention and would have acted rationally.  There is no reason that I can see that they would not apart from IRL issues, as it would immediately end the game for them to do so.  Indeed, I believe that is why JJs was forced to compromise his team's integrity in dropping the vote on me early, as he likely does have IRL issues, and is also scum.  That is what enabled me to determine any of the above logic.

Therefore, I'm going to follow Mad's vote and shift mine to JJs.  I believe that my logic is sufficiently sound that Mad and I can be evaluated as a unit, and Vis and JJs can be.  @WigTii, it comes down to you to make that evaluation.  I am now completely convinced that Mad and Wig are town and JJs and Vis are scum.  Judge between the two pairs which you think is more likely to be scum, and vote accordingly--either vote for JJs with Mad and I, or vote for me with JJs and Vis.

##unvote

##vote @JJs Juggernaut

*I know that I am town, which simplifies this significantly for me, but will leave that out of my reasoning here because I can't expect anybody else to vote on that basis.

[JJs Juggernaut 1,843]

If Vis or wig are scum they’d vote me instantly. If they don’t when they get online it’s then clear that Mad and Ard are the scum. 

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

11 minutes ago, JJs Juggernaut said:

If Vis or wig are scum they’d vote me instantly. If they don’t when they get online it’s then clear that Mad and Ard are the scum. 

Vis would only vote JJs immediately if Vis/JJs were not the two remaining scum, as I posited above.  So, to best of my knowledge, Vis' action/inaction doesn't really show anything, because my conclusion above is that Mad/Ard and JJs/Vis are aligned, one way or the other, which would make @WigTii the deciding vote. 

I know which way Wig should vote, but of course I would think he should agree with my vote.

Indeed, if Vis shows up first and does not vote for JJs, I believe it proves my hypothesis of the makeup of those two blocs.

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

15 minutes ago, Ardaedhel said:

Indeed, if Vis shows up first and does not vote for JJs, I believe it proves my hypothesis of the makeup of those two blocs.

... And @Visovics was active 3 minutes before and 1 minute after this quoted post... or 45 minutes after I shifted my vote to Jugger.

Help me, @WigTii.  You're our only hope.

[JJs Juggernaut 1,843]

I know I’m town, which then means vis isn’t scum since he’d have hammered me. 

That leaves wig tii as the last possible scum. If he is town and follows you the game is over.

Your own logic shows that you and mad as scum makes sense, since I voted you, you two couldn’t pile on for a quick hammer. 

[JJs Juggernaut 1,843]

@WigTii

@Visovics

 

[WigTii 279]

I just finished my dinner.  Reading recent posts now.  

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

12 minutes ago, JJs Juggernaut said:

I know I’m town, which then means vis isn’t scum since he’d have hammered me. 

That leaves wig tii as the last possible scum. If he is town and follows you the game is over.

Your own logic shows that you and mad as scum makes sense, since I voted you, you two couldn’t pile on for a quick hammer. 

The same logic works if you and Vis are scum.

Which is why I said, it has to be either me+Mad or JJs+Vis.  Mad and I have much the stronger record between us (admittedly, mostly due to his record), but it's up to @WigTii to decide.

 

Wig, don't let JJ's FUD sway you.  It's very definitely Ard/Mad vs JJs/Vis, and I laid out the reasoning very clearly in this post.  The fact that Vis has been active since I shifted my vote to JJs and has not hammered him is just further confirmation of that bloc.

As to which bloc is scum:  the entirety of JJ's defense here is "I know I'm not scum, therefore Vis can't be either."  There has been no case laid out--or even a stated suspicion, I think--in the entire game that Mad or I are scum, whereas both Vis and JJs have been under some degree of suspicion for pretty much the whole game.

[Visovics 1,675]

Biggest flaw in the plan: assume that scum are not just waiting the second vote on someone so they can turbo

They could also have gone for different targets, seeing which would be followed so the other can follow, so I don’t think it’s limited to those possibilities

[Visovics 1,675]

1 minute ago, Visovics said:

Biggest flaw in the plan: assume that scum are not just waiting the second vote on someone so they can turbo

They could also have gone for different targets, seeing which would be followed so the other can follow, so I don’t think it’s limited to those possibilities

Forget the first I hadn’t noticed Ard shifted his vote

[WigTii 279]

@Visovics

What is your current read of me?