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Will X-Wing still be around in 5, 10, 20 years?

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One thing that is haunting me is the following question: How long lasting will X-Wing be? Will it be around in 5, 10, 20 years?

Since the launch in September 2012 there have been 13 waves, 5 ace packs and 5 epic ship packs including small ships. Extrapolating that for the next years that would lead to the following numbers.

 

5 years:

26 waves, 10 ace packs, 10 epic ship packs

10 years:

39 waves, 15 ace packs, 15 epic ship packs

20 years:

65 waves, 25 ace packs, 25 epic ship packs (65 waves might be 260 different ships)

 

Will the game still be around? In which direction will it move? Can the game get that big or is it unreasonable that there will be so many different unique pilot cards and upgrade cards? If it can't get that big, what could be the strategy of FFG?

Please share your thoughts.

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I doubt the current rate of releases is sustainable in any timeframe. 

There are massive areas of unexplored design space, and a lot of content the community is still asking for. Demand for that content will sustain the game for the foreseeable future.

The big unknown for the future of this game is the new trilogy slated for direction by Rian Johnson, and the abundance of media that will acompany it. We don’t know if FFG will develop content from that media into X-wing miniatures, or start a new game.

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I think there is a finite limit on how big and complex the game can get and still maintain the widespread appeal it has. I would expect a system of rotations, like MtG, to come into effect - which would kill my own investment in the game owing to the ridiculous speed of obsoletion. Either that, or perhaps breaking the game down into seperate eras that can't be used together - so for example, the GCV era, the 'new' era from TFA onward, perhaps a Clone War era, etc.

Edited by MalusCalibur

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34 minutes ago, 235711 said:

One thing that is haunting me is the following question: How long lasting will X-Wing be? Will it be around in 5, 10, 20 years?

5 years? Probably. 

10+ years? Unlikely. 

I believe FFG needs to cover new grounds, like Campaign box(es) to keep this game alive.

The planned 4th trilogy, standalone movies and new TV series will ensure new content, BUT this means the game will continually drift away the core of the Star Wars fandom, which is focused on the OT. Because of that, the game will gradually lose its appeal.

An X-Wing Second Edition is inevitable in the long run and, if done right, can revitalize the game and make the OT ships mater again. If done wrong (non compatible miniatures, for instance), it can kill its player base.

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40k and WFB are minis games that have both been around since the 80s. These games continued to bring $ into GW’s coffers because they rereleased new versions on a fairly regular basis while also opening stores in malls to expose new folks to the hobby. Each new version would change rules requiring new boxed set and book purchases, bolster/diminish effectiveness of various things, cause reissues of figures (sometimes with waaay better sculpts that you really wanted), and issue new models that wreck face.  All this with periodic cost increases. 

That is the basic history of GW 80s through mid 2000s, I have not paid much attention in the past few years because PP and other companies have grown.  

I don’t have a good lens on PPs growth since I got too busy for Warmachine and Hordes when the MK II beta was in action.  Just really getting back into hobbies now. 

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I can see a lot of different possible ways to handle this, because I agree that FFG is not going to maintain 100 products in print at some point.

1.  Create a core set of ships (say, the original triology) that stay in print forever.  Update the packaging as needed to reprint upgraded cards with new text and include cards that probably should have been with the original ship (like AT for Squints).  Make the ship a repaint, to entice old players, and make the old paint jobs "classic."  Non-core ships exist for a couple of years, then go OOP.

2.  Purge.  FFG figures out which ships are selling, and lets the rest go OOP.  Problematic ships die (JM5K and Phantom) and can be replaced with new ideas and models that don't warp the meta.

3.  Rotate.  Ships go in and out of print, but at any given moment only part of the catalog is available on the market.

4.  Reduce Duplication.  Ace Packs get folded into the original blister release which will then contain both sets of content.  The ace pack is discontinued.

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8 minutes ago, Odanan said:

The planned 4th trilogy, standalone movies and new TV series will ensure new content, BUT this means the game will continually drift away the core of the Star Wars fandom, which is focused on the OT. Because of that, the game will gradually lose its appeal.

tumblr_m8ntdagZyX1rako0qo8_250.gif

...that said. the future of the game definitely doesn't lie in single expansions.  Campaign sets, alternative game formats, different ways of using the ships we already have, now that will keep the game going.

There does need to be a renewed focus on the Original Trilogy era ships, definitely.  Seeing the humble TIE Fighter, T-65 X-Wing, Y-Wing, A-Wing, B-Wing, Interceptor, Bomber etc is key for the creating and maintaining appeal among the casual audience and non-gaming Star Wars fans.

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15 minutes ago, FTS Gecko said:

There does need to be a renewed focus on the Original Trilogy era ships, definitely.  Seeing the humble TIE Fighter, T-65 X-Wing, Y-Wing, A-Wing, B-Wing, Interceptor, Bomber etc is key for the creating and maintaining appeal among the casual audience and non-gaming Star Wars fans.

Agreed.  It would be very easy to rerelease these ships in a way that moves the game forward while reestablishing the basics of a Star Wars Fandom-based game.  For example:

X-Wing:  Blue Squadron expac.  New pilots, new paint, new abilities.

A-Wing:  Phoenix Squadron.

Y-Wing:  Gold Squadron.

B-Wing:  Bladewing Prototype.

TIE/ln: Scythe Squadron, mechanics for TIE/rc.

Lambda:  Shuttle Tydirium with both Rebel and Imperial content.

TIE Interceptor:  181st Squadron.

Fans of SW get some narrative fluff in the form of classic pilots that are not in the game, and wargamers get more options for their current ships.  Let these be stand alone releases for a period of time, then fold them into the "original ship" packaging.

 

Edited by Darth Meanie

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39 minutes ago, RedHotDice said:

Considering, Star Trek attack wing is at wave 31 - don’t loose any more sleep, we are safe for the time being.

X-Wing:  77 items listed:

https://www.coolstuffinc.com/main_search.php?pa=searchOnName&page=1&resultsPerPage=25&q=x-wing%3A

Attack Wing:  6 items listed:

https://www.coolstuffinc.com/main_search.php?pa=searchOnName&page=1&resultsPerPage=25&q=star+trek+attack+wing%3A

Maybe 31 waves doesn't mean much for temporal longevity or game vitality.  In fact, it seems to imply the opposite.

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3 hours ago, Odanan said:

5 years? Probably. 

10+ years? Unlikely. 

I believe FFG needs to cover new grounds, like Campaign box(es) to keep this game alive.

The planned 4th trilogy, standalone movies and new TV series will ensure new content, BUT this means the game will continually drift away the core of the Star Wars fandom, which is focused on the OT. Because of that, the game will gradually lose its appeal.

An X-Wing Second Edition is inevitable in the long run and, if done right, can revitalize the game and make the OT ships mater again. If done wrong (non compatible miniatures, for instance), it can kill its player base.

Yup, what Odanan said - I concur. Couldn't have said it better ^_^ myself.

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The Star Wars gaming license has historically shifted from company to company every certain number of years. I expect X-Wing will end when Disney eventually (at the end of a contract cycle) shifts the license to another company, for reasons potentially unrelated to X-Wing. After that, it will be up to players to continue to support the game with additional content if desired, as with the Decipher CCG and Wizards TCG and Miniatures Game.

However, just as I still break out the Decipher CCGs every so often (virtually or physically), and just as the independent Player's Committee still runs tournaments, I think X-Wing will continue to be played, if at a reduced volume. The game is too well-put-together, too thematically compelling, and too popular to die with the end of sales. Even if you can't find (or make) local players, I think it's pretty likely you'll be able to find Vassal opponents without much difficulty. Whatever happens with the larger game, I for one hope to be putting plastic spacecraft on the table when I'm as wrinkled as the Emperor.

Edited by TheHumanHydra

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To be honest, I don't care how they achieve the following, but I think it needs to happen for this game to continue:

We need new official cards (of existing cards) that reflect all of the updated errata, FAQs, etc.

As this game continues to grow, its complexity, and the potential for poorly designed ships, pilots, upgrades, etc., will grow as well. I don't want to have to carry around or even have to reference a 500 page FAQ to determine the **** rules for the game, rules for cards, etc.

FFG has spoken in the past of how they absolutely will not release just card packs.  Fine.  But find a way to achieve the same result, or I feel they will lose many players, myself included.

Can you even imagine if this game does last 5-10 years in its current state, without a 2.0 version, etc. the amount of errata you would potentially have to know?

EDIT: Alternatively, I would also find it acceptable if they simply will allow us to utilize fan made cards that exist to achieve the same result.

Edited by any2cards

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4 hours ago, Odanan said:

BUT this means the game will continually drift away the core of the Star Wars fandom, which is focused on the OT. Because of that, the game will gradually lose its appeal.

I embrace the new trilogy and material.  I love the OT and, having grown up with it, it will always have that nostalgia for me but honestly I’m more of a fan of Star Wars since Disney took it over (and I didn’t think that was possible in fact I though it’d be disastrous).  The “definition” of the core of the Star Wars fandom will drift and therefore the appeal of the game will not diminish overall, although it may lose its appeal to those who only like the OT.

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5 hours ago, RedHotDice said:

Considering, Star Trek attack wing is at wave 31 - don’t loose any more sleep, we are safe for the time being.

Attack Wing is still in print?  I honestly thought that it had died out.  

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As the game is currently going? 5 years.

 

The game needs to evolve on several levels.

 

The game needs to do away with cardboard. Make an official app, and implement fixes and nerfs as time goes on. Including pricing.

The game needs to support additional modes of play. Missions, Campaigns, and more focus on Epic. These new game modes could involve their own starter packs even to bring in new players.

The game needs to slow down on the new canon releases. Make the mandatory tie-in products you have to, but focus more on the existing ships by issuing MORE aces packs. Bringing back old ships to speed is necessary for this game to survive, especially since the most iconic ships are the oldest too.

And most importantly...

 

Balance out the base mechanics and factions!!!

Turrets should not be straight up better in everything. They need to lose something. Mobility, Firepower, Accuracy... something. As it looks now, having turrets do not have a noticeable effect on dials or pricing, and their mechanics simply make them better than having single arc. This is a dogfighting game. Arcs need to matter more.

Either give all factions access to all mechanics, or make certain mechanics faction locked. But don't do it halfway...

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, TheHumanHydra said:

The Star Wars gaming license has historically shifted from company to company every certain number of years. I expect X-Wing will end when Disney eventually (at the end of a contract cycle) shifts the license to another company, for reasons potentially unrelated to X-Wing. After that, it will be up to players to continue to support the game with additional content if desired, as with the Decipher CCG and Wizards TCG and Miniatures Game.

However, just as I still break out the Decipher CCGs every so often (virtually or physically), and just as the independent Player's Committee still runs tournaments, I think X-Wing will continue to be played, if at a reduced volume. The game is too well-put-together, too thematically compelling, and too popular to die with the end of sales. Even if you can't find (or make) local players, I think it's pretty likely you'll be able to find Vassal opponents without much difficulty. Whatever happens with the larger game, I for one hope to be putting plastic spacecraft on the table when I'm as wrinkled as the Emperor.

X-Wing is the first miniatures game to displace Warhammer as the number one miniatures game in who-knows-how-long. Disney won't renew their license with FFG when X-Wing stops being profitable for them.

As far as keeping old ships relevant to appease casuals and their attachments to the story, just print a new title that makes it more cost effective and gives it relevant abilities in the current metagame. Simple. They've done it with several other ships.

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10 minutes ago, RufusDaMan said:

As the game is currently going? 5 years.

 

The game needs to evolve on several levels.

 

The game needs to do away with cardboard. Make an official app, and implement fixes and nerfs as time goes on. Including pricing.

The game needs to support additional modes of play. Missions, Campaigns, and more focus on Epic. These new game modes could involve their own starter packs even to bring in new players.

The game needs to slow down on the new canon releases. Make the mandatory tie-in products you have to, but focus more on the existing ships by issuing MORE aces packs. Bringing back old ships to speed is necessary for this game to survive, especially since the most iconic ships are the oldest too.

And most importantly...

 

Balance out the base mechanics and factions!!!

Turrets should not be straight up better in everything. They need to lose something. Mobility, Firepower, Accuracy... something. As it looks now, having turrets do not have a noticeable effect on dials or pricing, and their mechanics simply make them better than having single arc. This is a dogfighting game. Arcs need to matter more.

Either give all factions access to all mechanics, or make certain mechanics faction locked. But don't do it halfway...

 

 

 

 

The game does need to offer multiple formats to appease different player's preference of play. Also, there simply has to be a rotating, competitive format. Less than one minute of thought would reveal the logistical issues of having only one competitive format that doesn't rotate. Have one format that rotates and one that doesn't. Make another casual format so there's something besides epic.

Yes, turrets are stupid the way they're currently designed. However, fixing turret impact would also be simple. If you're firing outside your firing arc, the defender adds an additional evade dice. It makes sense thematically and mechanically. Turrets would still be good and playing against them would be less boring. Flying would become more important, even for turrets. 

Edited by AceWing

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Just now, AceWing said:

 

Yes, turrets are stupid the way they're currently designed. However, fixing turret impact would also be simple. If you're firing outside your firing arc, the defender adds an additional evade dice. It makes sense thematically and mechanically. Turrets would still be good and playing against them would be less boring. Flying would become more important, even for turrets. 

Just make outmaneuver a base rule for arc locked ships.
 

It's the most thematic and simple solution. In SW if someone is behind you, you are ******.

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