[MAFIA] Sands of the New Republic - DAY 1

[CaribbeanNinja 6,207]

My take on the game, for what's its worth, is that the Cult leaders had 1x recruit.  I mean I'm not sure at all about that, but haven't we gotten three of Red, and Black, and two of the Hutt?

My guess is that it started with a Leader and an Encryptor, and they got to recruit one.  

That means the Hutts are left with one.

Norell probably is ascetic (I mean I'm not sure but he burned the **** out of the Gink, JJ, and Cal)

Onidsen I'm not sure about but his play hasn't been overly strange.  It has matched my outcomes and experience  (I'm guessing that they got their recruits in and then it was over with)

Pod HAS been a little weird, especially a day ago when he all of the sudden claimed against Cal.  And he started using HUGE paragraphs, something totally against his norm play.  I'm not saying he was wrong about Cal, but I am saying that it makes A LOT more sense that GNIPs recruited him, based on:

Toad claiming him,

Lining up with the vote on Cal (and away from TheToad)

Lining up with GNIPs yesterday

Coming up with a crazy tattoo scheme,

Now trying to throw me under the bus.

[PodRacer 1,077]

im not voting you ninja, just saying...

[Onidsen 571]

Since you asked, CNinja, there's a couple ways I could see this going.  At least one of us is anti town of some sort. I know it's not me,  but unfortunately the rest of you don't have that guarantee.

You read town to me, but I'm not 100% on it, especially in a conversion game. You're not Hutt. Could theoretically be either of the others, but if you are,  it's not pinging to me.

Norell has proven that he's not red key, and probably isn't black sun either. Though that involves trusting his assertion of not being converted. Black Sun died early enough that i could believe it either way. Could be Hutt, I suppose.

Could also be a serial killer,  and lying about being 2 shot. He's my 2nd highest suspect. If he is a serial killer, we lose if we don't lynch him today.  But he's drawn waaay too much attention to himself for me to really believe he's a serial killer.

Pod just reads off to me. Mostly gut,  frankly. I haven't seen him play anti town before, so I don't have baseline comparisons for anything though.

[Onidsen 571]

The claim against caldias and the paranoid tattoo artist theory is admittedly weighing heavily in my mind against pod

[PodRacer 1,077]

I could have helped you with Nippy, he was being weird as ****!

But seeing as Id been asked repeatedly to stick with my Reads game after game, i put the time into the Cal case, because my life was on the line! and i needed everyone to know what I did.

Im not saying your scum ninja, im not, but i do feel like Toad and Nippy were taking there lead from a higher source before the last Two days.

And no offense to your detective work, but I think you know that definately would be me. Im actually feeling hollow at this point that I wasnt recruited =( I thought I did ok 

[PodRacer 1,077]

*would not

 

[CaribbeanNinja 6,207]

As an aside:

@Norell how did your power actually work?  Why were you able to target two that last time?

[PodRacer 1,077]

17 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

Lining up with GNIPs yesterday

I dont think thats Fair, My case was my own and a Fair one.

Nippy was already on my Radar, the fact he said he hardly had any notes then proceeded to pump out about 3 A4 pages of Text reeked scummy to me.  But i was sticking true to my case on Cal. If they werent dead, Dras was gonna be next and Nippy after for me, And thats because they were the extremes of my scale Anti Pod and Pro Pod without good Reason. But all this Playing slow and building cases isnt my natural style and Iv had to adapt, apologies if that reads scummy, but the old way wasnt exactly working either was it?

Now they Gone, Iv got to choose between you or Oni, its not like either of you will just roll over is it?

[PodRacer 1,077]

And yes as an aside i think its unlikely that @Norell didnt prepere his next victim last night.

[PodRacer 1,077]

Dammit You two.

Your quite a big threat to fishermen aren't you norell??!

If we believe you're two shot at face value we would be quite silly. Shooting Dras silly

Im definately not up for a no lynch. Before you ask.

 

[PodRacer 1,077]

1 hour ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

I mean that is hilarious

I know, but if you had the best scum tool ever conceived, you would sacrifice all your Pawns to get it into the endgame. Point made.

[Norell 1,198]

My power worked like an arsonist would work. I could prime one player at night and during the day I could trigger and all my charges went off. The 2-shot part was that I could only trigger twice. The first time I used it only Gink was primed so only he died. Then I primed nobody because I had no real suspects. I primed JJ the third night and Caldias on the fourth. I didn't plan to shot my last trigger back then but it seemed too likely that Pod would be lynched which I still think would have meant a Red Key victory.

[Onidsen 571]

3 hours ago, Norell said:

My power worked like an arsonist would work. I could prime one player at night and during the day I could trigger and all my charges went off. The 2-shot part was that I could only trigger twice. The first time I used it only Gink was primed so only he died. Then I primed nobody because I had no real suspects. I primed JJ the third night and Caldias on the fourth. I didn't plan to shot my last trigger back then but it seemed too likely that Pod would be lynched which I still think would have meant a Red Key victory.

So you think that 2 of us remaining are red keys? Really?

[CaribbeanNinja 6,207]

9 minutes ago, Onidsen said:

So you think that 2 of us remaining are red keys? Really?

That's literally impossible as they'd control the vote. 

[Onidsen 571]

1 hour ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

That's literally impossible as they'd control the vote. 

Point.  So,  Norell.  Still think that lynching pod would have meant a loss to the red keys?  On what grounds?

[Norell 1,198]

My train of thought was that if we don't lynch Caldias there are be at the least 3 Red Keys, with Cal and JJ for sure and likely one of you because you were reluctant to vote on Caldias. I even considered Dras to be a 4th. I also was pretty sure that many of the Fishermen are equipped with guns - it would be foolish if they wouldn't have been. And I was right. I think if you wouldn't have agreed to lynch Caldias you wouldn't have sued your shot on them either. If we would have lynched Pod and both of you shoot one player we would be down to 6 players with 3 Red Keys. Plus JJ could have a gun himself.

I don't think there are 2 Red Keys in our little quartet. In fact I don't think there are 2 of any cults. I think there are 2 or 3 cultists each from a different cult.

[Norell 1,198]

I accidentally hit send.

So I think 2 is more likely and we have to be very careful to lynch one of them because otherwise it would mean a cult victory. The problem is that we don't know if Pod has a gun. If he does math says he would win the game for sure if he is cult. But if he is town.... You two can't have guns as you shot last night, so you'll have to fish for one. I'm leaning towards lynching Pod but I definitely want to hear something from him first.

[PodRacer 1,077]

Don't lean too hard!

let me try and translate yor saying it's likely that 2 or more of the 4 remaining are cults and to vote me as I'm most likely to be armed as I had an extra night to fish?

For me, applying so much math when down to just 4 seems awkward, Did you just mention me because you think I'm cultscum or because you know you can't shake anything out of the other two as well?

more likely you want me gone today so you can trigger one or both of the other two 2mo for game over.

After a quick risk assessment I'm starting to think about voting you,  as you seem less towns as this continues and more like a cultist mathematician, and more like a cultist with a plan.

Worse case scenario I go up in flames, at least after Iv flipped town, the last townie will be certain he's the last town.

might be easier than me trying to gain trust with my logic. So I'm gonna see who you primed last night.

## vote Norell

 

 

[GhostofNobodyInParticular 2,493]

Vis will be busy ere the deadline comes, so I am posting vote counts etc. Tag me if you want 'em.

 

For now:

4 players alive, 3 to hammer

1-@Norell(1) - Pod

2-@PodRacer (1) - Onidsen, CNinja

3-@Onidsen(0) - Pod

4-@CaribbeanNinja(0) -

[CaribbeanNinja 6,207]

On September 12, 2017 at 2:58 PM, Onidsen said:

 Well,  that kind of invalidates my information. I tracked JJ last night,  learning that he didn't target anyone.  If we hadn't just taken out all (I *hope* it's all) of the cult leaders, it would have cut down on our suspects.  Good calls, Dras and caldias. Excellent shots.

I'm thinking that Norell would have been a good target for conversion last night. If there were one cult, I'd say it's even odds he didn't get converted last night.  With 2, I'm reasonably certain that at least one of the cults couldn't resist. 

Oni, do you still feel this way?

[Norell 1,198]

Well I know I wasn't converted. I was surprised as well, I was expecting that after I used my first shot I'd be dead or cult or both. As I was neither for a loong time I figured out that the only way to make the game balanced for the town would be to add two ascetic power roles. Of course the thought only occurred to me after we lynched Broba... Anyway I think my actions should speak for themselves. I was always after the cult that could pose the most threat for the town. Currently I think it's the Hutts because they had their leader alive the longest and therefor they almost certainly have a cultist alive. Black Sun, Red Key, probably not (but as I said I'm suspicious about the latter).

Pod, you would be surprised how easy to break down the basic math of the possible outcomes of the game. And how complex it becomes as you add variables like what items yo may have. For example if you're cult and you have a gun, then from all the possible outcome I found only a handful where you didn't win and only one where the town wins and one where the chance was 50/50. Then I started to add the likelihood of bulletproof vests and other stuff.... and threw it all out.

So I stick to what I think I can be sure about for now. I'm almost sure there are 2 cultists in the game. One Red Key, one Hutt. We must lynch one if the town wants to win. I know I am not a cultist.

From my previous investigations my bet is that you are the Hutt. I would be more comfortable if we could have figured out before the day ends who the Red Key was and the game wouldn't come down to a coin flip on the last day tough.

##vote Pod

[PodRacer 1,077]

Well Norell, Like I stated im more convinced that one of the other two was Culty,  But I cant prove anything beyond Feelings at this point. And im not exactly seeing you do much to get any new information from them, Just the standard Pod angle.

Promise you tho, If you lynch me, Town has Lost.

My vote is based more on the Potential risk to town If you are not being truthfull.

[PodRacer 1,077]

And I didnt burst into flames =) So you must have lined up on of the other two!!

 

As its still playing on peoples minds, and im yet to offer explanation The tatoo artist angle was one that I had formulated in response to Toads gambit, being that I didnt think an undercover, undiscovered  cult could throw a game like toad attempted.

Part of me wanted to believe something else was in play, Or that Toad was Scum in the knowledge They Were well ahead and the confusion caused by the emergence of a third cult would be too much for Town to react too. I was looking for an alternate Narrative just in case, but i now accept the Clan theory 99.9%, theres been too much no voting going on for it to be a simple town/scum setup.

That said, im at a loss as how to best extract any more Info from you guys So I am tempted to follow the flock.

Seriously Norell, math aside, the Idea Of Toad and Nippy laying Down their lives to get me into today is a weak one, Its much More likely you would do that If you had managed to Bag a player who can hold his own against onslaught of accusation. Thats definately not me!

##unvote

Im only voting you now Norell if the other Two decide you are too risky to have around, like I say, Im not after a no lynch today.

 

[CaribbeanNinja 6,207]

@Onidsenwhat say you?

[PodRacer 1,077]

On 9/17/2017 at 11:23 PM, Onidsen said:

 I've never been a snake on this site. Not yet. Not have I been converted. Pity, really, I like being scum.

You mean when hes not his usually his flawless Morgan freeman self, and you catch him with a Jab....