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Rinzler in a Tie

Tin Foil Hat Area: FFG Planning for the End

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2 hours ago, Rinzler in a Tie said:

..unless you can call out another point...

Manufacturers moved to a Pull Production system (as much as they can) because having inventory costs money.  They want to make just enough so everyone gets what they want without waiting, but not have a warehouse full of stuff.

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I'd put it down to FFG rapidly trying to get their inventory of miniatures for SW:Legion made, and their other games, along with the distribution changes for the Asmodee changeover. There's nothing sinister going on.

Did you miss the announcement for Star Wars Legion? That has 33 individual figures in it. An X-wing blister has 1 or 2 things in it (or 3 for a core set). Tack on all the Runewars figures for the core sets and expansions there. Add in every other miniature game and/or expansion set that FFG makes, and is trying to get to market before Christmas this year (especially if its new product). I can't imagine that older X-Wing miniatures rank very high on the priority list of production. They'd also would not have wanted a ton of product sitting around pending the distribution change. If things are still done the way they were when I was running the inventory control for a huge music company, any of the existing distributors who weren't still going to be carrying the product would have had to return it all to FFG. They'd end up with product that's sitting in a warehouse is costing them money. Space to store it, lost revenue from the interest from the cash reserves to have it made, so they'd lose money to inventory just gathering dust instead of moving until the cut-over happened.. It makes far more sense to let things run out of stock and deal with them after. Like they're doing now.

Seriously, what's with some of you folks trying to find deep, dark conspiracy theories everywhere? Take a breath, step back and look at the whole picture. Not just the little fragments that fit under the tin-foil hat.

Edited by Slugrage

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Here's another crazy tinfoil theory:

Wave 13 is already printed.

They have it ready and were ready for a release in May or latest now, together with Episode 8. But Episode 8 got delayed and they needed to switch up things, moving other ships ahead. Possibly with less playtesting than intended?! Anyway, those ships also needed to be printed. Now they are, and now the printer is free from urgent new products, which means they can finally reprint the older products.

But that's mostly BS because the more plausible answer is that the merger with Asmodee and the switch to a single distributor model meant they wanted to wait with reprints until that is over. Now it is, and now they can finally restock with the single distributor.

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I suspect that the Bullseye idea is such a good one that it's a precursor to Xwing 1.5.  The reprints might be either a final hurrah to 1.0 before 1.5 or, much less likely, a preparation for 1.5 (highly highly unlikely).

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If i were to tinfoil on the idea, i'd be more worried that this is a sign the mouse is not going to renew their licensing contract and give it to someone else. And the stock up is to take as much as possible before they have to pull them from shelves as they did the gw gear.

 

That said, a to rational person it just appears they are getting the printing queues clear of existing models to prepare for volume legion/runewars/other new product that previously have taken too long to trickle through after announcement. Noone can deny the shipping has gotten somewhat faster the last wave or two.

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29 minutes ago, Ralgon said:

If i were to tinfoil on the idea, i'd be more worried that this is a sign the mouse is not going to renew their licensing contract and give it to someone else. And the stock up is to take as much as possible before they have to pull them from shelves as they did the gw gear.

This is counter-intuitive. If Disney pulled the license, FFG would have to destroy any product they were left with after the ending of the license; they would want as little stock on hand as possible. Reprinting everything would be the worst thing to do. This is why FFG/Asmodee had the firesale on Games Workshop products where they were selling $60 RPG books for $5, and I ended up having to buy a new bookshelf after X-Mas.

As well, it would be against any business sense for Disney to pull the license from FFG while they are currently putting out the #1 selling miniatures game. They only way that would happen is if they could somehow "do better than #1" by doing it in-house, which is really hard to imagine anyone signing off on that when FFG has managed to dethrone Games Workshop, which was once thought impossible.

Edited by kris40k

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7 hours ago, Rinzler in a Tie said:

Listening to the Mynock+Kryats podcast (http://mynockpodcast.libsyn.com/) and someone stated their theory that the coming of the Gunboat means X-Wing is waning. 
No big deal. This isn't a shocking or unrealistic notion - we've all been a bit restless recently and the game's popularity has definitely peaked (assertion).  Then I checked out the Upcoming (print) page:

https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/upcoming/

Take a look. As of the beginning of August, FFG is reprinting just about everything for X-Wing.. I mean, Phantoms and the original Falcon? I can see certain reprints -- Rebel Aces for the sake of the new A-Wing -- but they're reprinting the original Core Set and the Lambda, ffs. This is a standard practice for most product life-cycles: stock the shelves before a phase-out and eventual discontinuation. 

I know people will argue this and that's what I'm looking for, but unless you can call out another point in this game's life-cycle where they reprinted everything, I'm not sure you'll convince me. 

Hi Rinzler,

Not sure about the end of X-Wing - I certainly hope not.

And I'd rather not think of the Gunboat a herald of doom and gloom. There's a thread titled 'The Gunboat is our Saviour' and if what I've been reading so far is on-the-pulse, the Gunboat has provided a boost to morale for Imperial aligned players - a second wind if you will.

As an Armada player, I have never played X-Wing, but my promise to FFG stands. They have rewarded the customer and should be in turned supported for their generosity - so I'll be picking up an X-Wing and Gunboat to learn. I have also been spamming my limited social circles to look into X-Wing.

Remember, it seems, the doomsayers and naysayers are always vocally the loudest on the forums. But it's the mainstream/majority of players that are actually doing their thing and engaging with the game that are in the background.

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6 hours ago, Rinzler in a Tie said:

Listening to the Mynock+Kryats podcast (http://mynockpodcast.libsyn.com/) and someone stated their theory that the coming of the Gunboat means X-Wing is waning. 

I know people will argue this and that's what I'm looking for, but unless you can call out another point in this game's life-cycle where they reprinted everything, I'm not sure you'll convince me. 

Firstly, those guys seem to like their theories out of proportion to any evidence. Secondly;

4 hours ago, Icelom said:

They are running out of stock of a highly profitable game and are printing a bunch more before the holiday season and the new movie in the franchise it's based on.... probably means they are killing the game.

I think I just gave my self a tumor trying to follow that logic.

 

That pretty much covers it.

 

14790436878_c758edd2d6_b.jpg

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After a month of no articles, pure trash in terms of communicating competitive events (PAX, regionals, more to come), and the deafening silence on a much needed FAQ ("leak" aside) -- is it too soon to bring back this topic?

Could 2.0 be closer than we think or is FFG just having a rough quarter with the reckless-abandon rate of product release..?

Edit: Please god, let this necro be the karmatic force required for an article to be published...

Edited by Rinzler in a Tie

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49 minutes ago, Sithborg said:

No. 

Is that "no, it's not too soon" or "no, don't"

1 hour ago, Rinzler in a Tie said:

After a month of no articles, pure trash in terms of communicating competitive events (PAX, regionals, more to come), and the deafening silence on a much needed FAQ ("leak" aside) -- is it too soon to bring back this topic?

Could 2.0 be closer than we think or is FFG just having a rough quarter with the reckless-abandon rate of product release..?

Edit: Please god, let this necro be the karmatic force required for an article to be published...

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Edited by Darth Meanie

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basically as wookie put it

FIVE new ships on the horizon means they're showing no signs of slowing, honestly


especially given how well designed the gunboat is. They put a lot of effort into making it a flexible platform with a lot of build options, effort which is evident just from the very initial preview

Edited by ficklegreendice

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On 22.8.2017 at 6:49 PM, Rinzler in a Tie said:

Listening to the Mynock+Kryats podcast (http://mynockpodcast.libsyn.com/) and someone stated their theory that the coming of the Gunboat means X-Wing is waning. 
No big deal. This isn't a shocking or unrealistic notion - we've all been a bit restless recently and the game's popularity has definitely peaked (assertion).  Then I checked out the Upcoming (print) page:

https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/upcoming/

Take a look. As of the beginning of August, FFG is reprinting just about everything for X-Wing.. I mean, Phantoms and the original Falcon? I can see certain reprints -- Rebel Aces for the sake of the new A-Wing -- but they're reprinting the original Core Set and the Lambda, ffs. This is a standard practice for most product life-cycles: stock the shelves before a phase-out and eventual discontinuation. 

I know people will argue this and that's what I'm looking for, but unless you can call out another point in this game's life-cycle where they reprinted everything, I'm not sure you'll convince me. 

The original Falcon has still pre-orders open from before the last re-print. They literally could not deliver enough units to some stores with larger pre-order amounts stacked up. And people had been looking all over the place for the original falcon reprint back in march 2016, because the print run from that time was out of stack as well. So the original falcon is a limited commodity for at least 18 month by now. 

  1. The original core set is out of stock, so it needs a reprint as well.
  2. Rebel Aces seems out of stock as well. (Damnit, I still need a 3rd expansion of that.)
  3. Lambdas out of stock and currently a meta ship for imperials.
  4. Veterans of the Empire, out of stock.
  5. Phantoms?They are out of stock as well, avaible for pre-order of the reprint. ^_^
  6. Kihraxz out of stock AND getting a hot ship once guns for hire lands. 
  7. K-Wings AGAIN out of stock, nearly the same situation as with the falcon, just not as bad. K-Wings are hot in the meta since about a year, sometimes even a triple Ks, but Miranda stayed relevant for all the time and is currently thanks to the H6 release another hot meta piece and a hard to get commodity. 
  8. 290 Hawks, out of stock currently with most stores as far as I know, even when they haven't sold very well and I think this is the first reprint actually. Still Palobtanni was a thing for a while so I guess they managed to sell now at least the first print run, because my stores run mostly out of them. 
  9. Defenders, hard to come by as well currently, seems to be nearly out of stock. See Veterans of the Empire ;-)
  10. Tantive out of stock in most stores.
  11. Raider, despite it getting a reprint already and despite the Palpatine nerf, a lot of people still seem to buy this piece once their regular collections got complete, just because the model is awesome. Out of Stock again in both of my local stores and I heard on reddit from others having trouble to get them either. 
  12. Rebel Transport, same trend as with the other epic ship. My personal bet would be really that people complete their collections in similar ways how I do right now, getting the last few missing pieces includes the epic ones. 
  13. ARCs. Out of stock in my local stores
  14. Aggressors, out of stock in my local stores-
  15. Protectorate Fighters. I think they are actually now out of stock in both my local stores, a friend as grabbed the last one last week iirc. Not 100% sure on that one. 
  16. Mist Hunters, out of stock. 
  17. Jumpmasters, out of stock.
  18. Slave One, out of stock.
  19. Imperial Aces, out of stock.
  20. Inquisitor's TIE is out of stock.
  21. TIE Striker is out of stock.
  22. Y-Wings out of stock.
  23. TIE Advanced is out of stock.
  24. The Ghost is out of stock.
  25. B-Wings out of stock.
  26. Even the Punisher is out of stock!


Compared to what FFG is actually reprinting, we will still not cover even half of the expansions which did run out. Furthermore I only checked german and english editions, but FFG is doing usually all international versions in one print run as the models are all the same and only the card and cardboard printing differs depending localizations. There are french, spanish, iirc italian versions on top, and god knows how many more. If stocks on the english main edition are low enough to justify a reprint while one of the international localized versions is out of stock, they usually will reprint already as well. 

If anything this is a sign how many X-Wing players actually bought a freaking lot ships and complete or at least tried to complete their collections. With so many ships out of stock and awaiting for reprint, a lot of people will have a hard time to complete their collection. Now this doesn necessary mean that overall we got a lot of new players this year, players like me who joined the fun last year might be the main reason for buying so many old ships as they finally complete their collections, but at the other hand, we had this year a lot of new players in our local community and they buy ships in large numbers as well, especially the classics like Y-Wings, K-Wings, Jumpmasters, Lambda Shuttles, etc … 

Overall I would say, FFG can not print "money" fast enough to cover demand. I think they can not reprint even more ships simultaneously, even when there is demand for them ;-)

Edited by SEApocalypse

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On 8/22/2017 at 1:03 PM, Rinzler in a Tie said:

Not right now. My point is if they were storing wares for the long-haul, I would not be surprised. 

From a business point-of-view, this makes no sense at all. Accumulating large stocks of inventory that you plan on keeping around a long time is one of those things that business try very hard not to do. You want to keep just enough inventory in order to satisfy demand, but you want to be turning over any inventory you do have on hand as quickly as possible. Accumulate too much, and you've spent money and aren't making any revenue on it. Accumulate too little, and you're losing sales. No business would ever deliberately "store wares for the long-haul" on a product line they plan on discontinuing. They also don't tend to discontinue their #1 selling bread-and-butter product line.

And if it somehow comes down to a "potentially losing their license from Disney" issue, you _really_ don't want to stock up on product at that point, because once your license expires, you're not even _allowed_ to sell any product you still have sitting in your warehouses!

Reprinting older waves means exactly one thing: FFG is getting orders from distributors for them due to demand for more. Which pretty much means the exact opposite of it being some sign of the game possibly being discontinued.

 

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I really wouldn't expect Disney to pull the license from the company that became market leader with it. Even if GW comes back this year, which is not unlikely given the success of 40ks 8th edition, FFGAsmodee is still miles ahead of their other competetors, most notably WizKidz, who never got their very similar game with another strong license (sure, today Star Wars is larger, but X-Wing became big even before the new era of Star Wars) to anywhere near the level of quality (both models and rules, though I imagine models are what the licenseholder is more interested in) or sales volume.

Also Legion doesn't seem like a sign of stopping, but rather doubling down.

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9 hours ago, Admiral Deathrain said:

I really wouldn't expect Disney to pull the license from the company that became market leader with it. Even if GW comes back this year, which is not unlikely given the success of 40ks 8th edition, FFGAsmodee is still miles ahead of their other competetors, most notably WizKidz, who never got their very similar game with another strong license (sure, today Star Wars is larger, but X-Wing became big even before the new era of Star Wars) to anywhere near the level of quality (both models and rules, though I imagine models are what the licenseholder is more interested in) or sales volume.

Also Legion doesn't seem like a sign of stopping, but rather doubling down.

It'll be really fun to set up 3 tables and run a mission where the armada fleet engaging each other affects the fighter squadrons tactics which will affect the amount of air support received on the ground.

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1 minute ago, FlyingAnchors said:

It'll be really fun to set up 3 tables and run a mission where the armada fleet engaging each other affects the fighter squadrons tactics which will affect the amount of air support received on the ground.

Play a game of Rebellion where every ground battle is a game of Legion and every fleet battle a game of Armada where every squadron engagement is a game of X-Wing. If there are forces in orbit for a ground battle, play a game of Armada under the same rules for air support. How to spend winter when you are snowed in at the south pole.

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On 8/22/2017 at 0:49 PM, Rinzler in a Tie said:

I mean, Phantoms and the original Falcon?  I can see certain reprints -- Rebel Aces for the sake of the new A-Wing -- but they're reprinting the original Core Set and the Lambda, ffs.

Yay, 4x Lambda fortress and 3x ORS troll lists!

Edited by GrimmyV

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16 minutes ago, Admiral Deathrain said:

Play a game of Rebellion where every ground battle is a game of Legion and every fleet battle a game of Armada where every squadron engagement is a game of X-Wing. If there are forces in orbit for a ground battle, play a game of Armada under the same rules for air support. How to spend winter when you are snowed in at the south pole.

6%20months%20later.jpg

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Dang. Back off the Lambda. It’s an elegant and iconic ship. A good portion of X-Wing sales are people who want something to sit on a desk or shelf. The shuttle would be an excellent candidate for that. 

Not to mention, with possible revivals due to rules tweeks and things like more Vader crew, it’s not inconceivable that even at a competitive level the Lambdas could return. 

I run a 16 player, 4 table, 4 hours a day for 4 days, XWing/Armada narrative event every March. I could totally see grabbing another Lambda for that.  

Edit: also this (taken from Q4 thread)

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Edited by Lobokai
Shuttle promo in Q4 prizes

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