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11 minutes ago, Biophysical said:

That's super hard with Y-wings, because they're so slow that they can't force any kind of engagement just from movement.  The opponent knows where you are and where you'll be next turn.  Their zone of possible positions is extraordinarily small.  

Maybe, but if there's 5 of them and the individual attacks matter, like with vtg+ion, u-wings absolutely can force an engage.  Back when I was running 3 vtg Ys and Saw, RStan was literally the only person who ever tried to opt out successfully, and he was flying 5 boosting small base turrets.

The right of the people to 1-straight to victory shall not be infringed.

Edited by Ablazoned

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6 minutes ago, Biophysical said:

I understand this isn't the point of this discussion, but I find vultures much more manageable to play against than TIE Fighters.  The damage against them is more predictable because of the reduced agility.

Networked calculations probably evens it out more than you think. Even if you focus fire, the defending droid will always have mods, while a TIE will only mod once.

PS: droid swarms win tournaments, when was the last time a TIE swarm did?

Edited by Cerebrawl

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1 minute ago, Cerebrawl said:

Even if you focus fire, the defending droid will always have mods, while a TIE will only mod once.

Having a billion calculates is useless if you roll blanks on defense.  I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here.  3/7 games I played at worlds I got jousted by trip aces and lost 2 vultures on round 1 at range 2.  If you run Vultures you always run the risk of just blanking on your 2 greens with no other damage mitigation, and thereby just losing.

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4 minutes ago, Cerebrawl said:

Networked calculations probably evens it out more than you think. Even if you focus fire, the defending droid will always have mods, while a TIE will only mod once.

The damage from three 3-die focused attacks against a vulture at R2 is higher than a TIE with just a focus at R2:

Vulture - expected = 3.223 (66.7% chance to die)

http://xwing.gateofstorms.net/2/multi_preset/?d=AhgAAAAAAAAA&a1=AgMAAA&a2=AgMAAA&a3=AgMAAA

 

TIE - expected = 2.602 (50.4% chance to die)

http://xwing.gateofstorms.net/2/multi_preset/?d=gwAAAAAAAAAA&a1=AgMAAA&a2=AgMAAA&a3=AgMAAA

 

The damage would actually be higher on the vulture, because in actuality, the vulture can ever double calculate exactly once (network + itself), then can only ever calculate once then after (just network), but the calculator isn't built to represent that, so I just gave the vulture 6 calculates.

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5 minutes ago, Ablazoned said:

Having a billion calculates is useless if you roll blanks on defense.  I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here.  3/7 games I played at worlds I got jousted by trip aces and lost 2 vultures on round 1 at range 2.  If you run Vultures you always run the risk of just blanking on your 2 greens with no other damage mitigation, and thereby just losing.

It's because tons of ace lists are better jousters in nlsot circumstances, like they're maneuverable enough that they can just joust <100% of the droids pretty easily, and have a notable advantage. 

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3 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

The damage from three 3-die focused attacks against a vulture at R2 is higher than a TIE with just a focus at R2:

Vulture - expected = 3.223 (66.7% chance to die)

http://xwing.gateofstorms.net/2/multi_preset/?d=AhgAAAAAAAAA&a1=AgMAAA&a2=AgMAAA&a3=AgMAAA

 

TIE - expected = 2.602 (50.4% chance to die)

http://xwing.gateofstorms.net/2/multi_preset/?d=gwAAAAAAAAAA&a1=AgMAAA&a2=AgMAAA&a3=AgMAAA

 

The damage would actually be higher on the vulture, because in actuality, the vulture can ever double calculate exactly once (network + itself), then can only ever calculate once then after (just network), but the calculator isn't built to represent that, so I just gave the vulture 6 calculates.

Tokenless TIE faces 3.65 expected hits, and single calc droid faces 3.806 expected hits. It's pretty close.

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Just now, Cerebrawl said:

Tokenless TIE faces 3.65 expected hits, and single calc droid faces 3.806 expected hits. It's pretty close.

The TIE Fighter has a much higher chance of totally avoiding damage from a single attack, though, which is the situation I find most difficult to overcome.  It's hard if a few bad rolls mean you do no damage to a cheap ship.  That's more likely against TIE Fighters than droids. Not saying TIEs are better, I just find them easier to plan against.  

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Just now, Cerebrawl said:

On the other hand 7 range 2 shots back from 6 droids and sear is a 47% kill on 7B obi-wan with 4.428 expected hits.

I mean, probably?

Obi has a lot of agency on being at R2 in front of a vulture swarm though, with them fine-tuned controls...

Like, this goes back to the philosophy of swarms - the idea that anyone can/should be able to entire just "arc dodge" an entire swarm seems odd. Generally speaking, the swarm *will* find a ship - they brought a lot of arcs. They probably *will* hurt one of the opposing ships. That does not guarantee success.

It's the entire philosophy of all swarms, not just vulture swarms. As a matter of fact, sinker swarms are actually better than vulture swarms as jousters, and joust vultures under the table... but basically no one plays them. Likewise, Obi can't sit in front of a sinker swarm.

 

Obi shouldn't sit in front of a Howl swarm, either. He has ~33% chance to die there. Is the 33% chance more palatable or "earned" for some reason?

http://xwing.gateofstorms.net/2/multi_preset/?d=AgIAAAAAAAAA&a1=AQMAAA&a2=AQMAAA&a3=AQMAAA&a4=AQMAAA&a5=AQMAAA&a6=AwMAAA

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6 minutes ago, Boom Owl said:

Ok Matchup discussion time:

If 3 Epislon Tie FOs vs any given i5/i6 "Ace" is not at least a 50/50 was something designed wrong? 

This sounds secretly like a points discussion in disguise... 

I do agree though. Multiple generic fighters without upgrades should not be a "bad" list. 

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8 minutes ago, Boom Owl said:

Ok Matchup discussion time:

If 3 Epislon Tie FOs vs any given i5/i6 "Ace" is not at least a 50/50 was something designed wrong? 

I think 33%+ of well played trip Epsilons vs well played ace is acceptable, if the ace is bad at other stuff to make up for the advantage vs multiple cheap ships.  

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4 minutes ago, LagJanson said:

This sounds secretly like a points discussion in disguise... 

I do agree though. Multiple generic fighters without upgrades should not be a "bad" list. 

So its specifically not a points question. 

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If you ask local players, I probably shouldn't be talking much about probabilities.

Just the other day I left Guri tokenless(no linky) turn 2, and Soontir could just double reposition into mutual range 3 shots. He shoots, 1 hit, I evade. I shoot, 3 natties, he rolls blanks/focus and dies.

When you've got a swarm shooting, this sort of variance is deadly.

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1 minute ago, Boom Owl said:

So its specifically not a points question. 

I know, there's a game mechanics question tucked in there. A full on mechanics discussion is harder to get right in a forum because everybody comes from a different perspective... and none of these views are from the game designers themselves.

There's a few rules I would have done differently, if that's what you mean.

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3 minutes ago, svelok said:

7f2.jpg

There's a reason TFD tops the pilot charts. It's too much of a steal right now.

PS: didn't I also opin in that very same post that regen jedi should be a dead archetype? This at least leaves Searswarm alive, even if it's barely.

Edited by Cerebrawl

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1 minute ago, PaulRuddSays said:

I hope third edition is more generous with limited, non-unique pilots. It feels like this would be a reasonable space to move into. 

I hope the third edition is more than two or three years into the future. Great change, but at great cost.

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1 minute ago, PaulRuddSays said:

I hope third edition is more generous with limited, non-unique pilots. It feels like this would be a reasonable space to move into. 

dudes with dots are neat because you can cost them based on how much they're worth and not on being worried that spamming X of them is too overpowered (see xwings, bwings, strikers, etc)

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