Jump to content
SaltMaster 5000

Carolina Krayts is the best X-Wing podcast

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, player3010587 said:

Of course the Seppie here would say that, haha. 

 

He's not wrong, though.  That bank boost allows for so much flexibility.  Barrel roll + bank boost is the classic "I can shoot you, but you can't shoot me" move which is also kind of the problem with aces *shrug*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, MasterShake2 said:

You forgot this and all of the remote rules

latest?cb=20190307205335

latest?cb=20190225225916

latest?cb=20190225224802

 

Who doesn't want to read a small novel to field the cheapest ships in the game?

Don't jump too far ahead! That's part of Chapter 2: Catelyn.

Also, to avoid a double-post and to return to your mentionings of the Howlrunner Tax, I'd like to remind everyone that with the TIE LN base being 23 and Howlrunner being 40, 7 Academies and 1 Howlrunner run at 201 pt. That is not a coincidence.

Edited by player3010587

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh, worlds listfortress is done:

https://listfortress.com/tournaments/1251

 

Matchups and everything should be right, except I couldn't find scores for the cut.  All those games have the score as 1-0 because I have no way of knowing what they actually are.  If you played in the cut, feel free to go edit in actual data, but even just having game winner/loser is dramatically more valuable than anything we've had in the past.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, MasterShake2 said:

You forgot this and all of the remote rules

latest?cb=20190307205335

latest?cb=20190225225916

latest?cb=20190225224802

 

Who doesn't want to read a small novel to field the cheapest ships in the game?

My separatist plan had always been to let someone else figure it out, architecture is overrated, why build the building when you can wait and live in it for free ;)

Edited by catachanninja

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5mWyuLk.png

Data is all matches in worlds Swiss (I'll add cut games some time).  WRF and WRNF are win rate in finished games and win rate in not finished games.  I want to know if a certain faction (and, when I get around to it, archetypes and pilots) gain a real advantage when games aren't finished.  Causation notwithstanding, maybe rebels and scum actually prefer games to go to time, while FO and resistance prefer to finish?

Ultimately I hope to find the "real" culprit for games going to time a lot.  Is it scared aces or mechanically demanding swarms?

Edited by Ablazoned

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Ablazoned said:

5mWyuLk.png

Data is all matches in worlds Swiss (I'll add cut games some time).  WRF and WRNF are win rate in finished games and win rate in not finished games.  I want to know if a certain faction (and, when I get around to it, archetypes and pilots) gain a real advantage when games aren't finished.  Causation notwithstanding, maybe rebels and scum actually prefer games to go to time, while FO and resistance prefer to finish?

Ultimately I hope to find the "real" culprit for games going to time a lot.  Is it scared aces or mechanically demanding swarms?

so, if I'm reading this correctly (and correct me if I'm not).

Looking at republic:
They have the least percentage of finished games (45%), and have a worse winning % when games are finished before time versus going to time (47% vs 50.9%)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

so, if I'm reading this correctly (and correct me if I'm not).

Looking at republic:
They have the least percentage of finished games (45%), and have a worse winning % when games are finished before time versus going to time (47% vs 50.9%)?

Correct.  By contrast, the FO (small sample size) finishes about 50% of games, winning 55% of games that finish and 44% of games that don't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Hiemfire said:

The intensity of peoples' desire to have 200-x games being the only "valid" definition of "Finished" is disturbingly beginning to look more and more like a cult...

That's fair.  I plan on changing the threshold from "no one got 200 points" to "winner only won by x points and the loser still had firepower left", where x is 20, 30, whatever.  But it's incremental.

Edited by Ablazoned

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Brunas said:

 If you played in the cut, feel free to go edit in actual data, but even just having game winner/loser is dramatically more valuable than anything we've had in the past.

Thank you much! As someone that has to rely on stats & videos since  I don't get to the big events, the work is much appreciated.

I've entered my first 2 cut games that I know sure. I'm not 100% sure about my top 32 but pretty certain so I entered it but Dominick is free to correct me. Going to have to wait until the GSP video is posted for my top 16 as honestly I don't remember, so hope that is OK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Hiemfire said:

The intensity of peoples' desire to have 200-x games being the only "valid" definition of "Finished" is disturbingly beginning to look more and more like a cult...

Sort of.

Like, part of the problem using the 200-x as a proxy for "going to time" is that plenty of games that "go to time" feel resolved as well. Like, one player is basically in an unwinnable position, and time was simply called. 


Rephrased - not all games that go to time are "unresolved".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Ablazoned said:

5mWyuLk.png

Data is all matches in worlds Swiss (I'll add cut games some time).  WRF and WRNF are win rate in finished games and win rate in not finished games.  I want to know if a certain faction (and, when I get around to it, archetypes and pilots) gain a real advantage when games aren't finished.  Causation notwithstanding, maybe rebels and scum actually prefer games to go to time, while FO and resistance prefer to finish?

Ultimately I hope to find the "real" culprit for games going to time a lot.  Is it scared aces or mechanically demanding swarms?

CIS is the big story, so let's look at some numbers. CIS non-mirror win rate was high against everyone but Rebels (50.9) and Republic (49.2) and both of those were close to the expected 50%, so CIS doesn't appear to have a bad matchup at least on a faction level. Moral of the story, CIS should build to win the mirror i.e. don't bother with TA-175 because he does nothing against an I1 swarm.
-
CIS was exactly in the middle in terms of rates of games not going to time (number 4 out of 7). CIS has a 57.4% chance of winning games that do not go to time, but only a 51.6% if they do go to time. Only two factions have more of a disadvantage going to time, FO and Resistance. TL:DR, if you're playing a Vulture swarm, learn to play fast.
-
Empire was the overall winner, so let's take a brief look at them. Empire is positive, although only to a small degree, against almost everything except CIS (41.8, which is quite bad). Empire also seems to win more by playing to conclusion, but only by 1,9% so not as big as CIS, but they do have a slightly higher finish rate than CIS, but by very little (54.9 v 54.2). It's interesting because this points to both an Ace and Swarm faction having a distinct advantage in finishing games (although this is likely a result of overall power level).
-
Other oddball hot takes:
-For reasons that baffle me, the worst win rate was Scum into First Order (36.8). What the **** is FO doing that's winning almost 2/3rds of the scum matches? To be fair, their win rate against CIS was only 38%, so not much better. This might indicate a scum weakness to generic swarms, since both of those factions lean on generics a lot right now.
-Scum has the highest stall advantage also for reasons that I find a little unclear with a full 7.5% increase in win rates when going to time.
-Ironically, Scum also went to time the least of any faction...stall harder?
-Republic had the lowest finish rate and the second highest advantage when not finishing, but it doesn't seem to help them as they didn't even break 50% for non-mirror matches.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...