jbrandmeyer

Sloane's impact on the Phantom

41 posts in this topic

Sloane's impact on blue dice anti-ship is pretty straightforward.  1/4 of the initial results are useless and get rerolled, and we can quickly see that basic TIEs have only a 1/16 odds to whiff completely.

But Phantom's are another story entirely. Two dice, of which 1/4 are initially whiffs, only one of the accuracies can be spent, and only one of the crit faces can be rerolled.  So, what's the impact?

Summary, comparing one Phantom to a pair of basic TIE fighters:

  1. 5/32 (16%) odds of a whiff, versus two TIEs at 1/256 (< 0.5%)).
  2. 21/128 (also 16%) odds of doing more than two TIE's can: 3-4 damage, or an accuracy and 2 damage.
  3. 1.22 damage average, versus basic TIE at 0.62 damage (or 1.24 as a pair).  Compare that to a BCC-enabled TIE bomber at 1.25 on average.
  4. About the same odds as a basic TIE of generating an accuracy overall, at 28% for the Phantom to generate one, versus 31% for a single TIE fighter.
    1. Two TIE fighters do better, at 53% for two TIEs to generate at least one accuracy.  But I think that's a less important figure, as I discuss below.

So overall, I think its not quite as good as two TIE fighters: doing about the same on average while requiring a much higher dependence on the Force for your rolls.  On the flip side, its not quite as expensive in points either, and much less expensive in terms of activations.  A Gozanti activating 2-3 Phantoms will have a more significant impact than activating TIE fighters, or even activating TIE bombers with BCC.  I think that makes the Phantom somewhat less of the hard pass that it currently is, and makes it worth considering in some fleets.  That's because the impact of accuracy generation should be measured per-activation, not per-fighter IMO, and the Phantom does about the same as a basic TIE in that regard.

To attack this problem, I needed something with more oomph than mere 2D convolutions in Matlab/Octave: I turned to the open source computer algebra system Maxima.  If you've ever worked with Maple or Mathematica before, Maxima is in the same class of software, but free (both free-as-in-freedom and free-as-in-beer).  'wxmaxima' is available through many Linux systems' package manager, and 'wxMaxima' as packaged on Sourceforge can be downloaded for Windows systems.

I resolved the statistics by encoding the die results as polynomials in three variables (a = accuracy, d = damage, c = crit).  Substitute c^2 results for c to capture that only one crit can be rerolled, and substitute a^2 for a to capture that only one accuracy can be spent.  Then perform the reroll and accumulate the results.  The final polynomials are kindof a mouthful:

TIE Phantom: (3*d^4)/128+(3*d^3)/32+(3*a*d^2)/64+(27*d^2)/128+(3*a*d)/32+(15*d)/64+(9*a)/64+5/32

2x TIE Fighters: (25*d^2)/64+(25*a*d)/64+(5*d)/64+(25*a^2)/256+(5*a)/128+1/256

I like this encoding of the problem better than using convolutions, at least as far as expressing the problem goes.  I'm still learning the polynomial manipulation functions to make the results easier to read, though.

/* one red die, encoding results as d=damage, c=crit, 1=zilch, a=accuracy */
red: d/4 + d^2/8 + a/8 + c/4 + 1/4;
blue: d/2 + c/4 + a/4;
basic_sloane_tie: expand(subst(c=1, subst(c=blue, blue)));
two_sloane_ties: expand(basic_sloane_tie*basic_sloane_tie);

/* Multiple accuracies don't count, and neither do multiple crits */
phantom: subst([a^2=a, c^2=c], expand(red^2));

/* Perform the reroll of one die with a crit facing */
phantom_sloane: expand(coeff(phantom, c, 0) + coeff(phantom, c, 1)*red);

/* at this point, accuracies only count once, crits cannot be rerolled */
phantom_sloane: subst([a^2=a, c=1], phantom_sloane);

 

Jukey, CyborgNinja, Flengin and 2 others like this

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Ignore Sloane for a while. And just focus on the two fighters.

 

Two Tie Fighters:

  • 6 Hull and two targets
  • 2x3 blue anti squadron dice, each with swarm
  • chance for 2x accuracy (for Sloane)
  • cost 16 points
  • need two activations

Tie Phantom:

  • 4 Hull
  • 4 blue anti squadron dice
  • only one accuracy is usefull (with sloane)
  • cost 14 points
  • need only one activation
  • Has cloak.

I am not sure how you see it. But i see more use in the two Tie Fighters compared to the Tie Phantom. They are more flexible, have more hull, deal more damage against squadrons and can make more use out of sloane (double acc).
This is fully worth the two more points they cost.

But this might be, because i don't like the Tie Phantom. I think it is way to bad for the cost.  I am a bit biased when it comes to this squadron :D.

 

 

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I would say that the Phantom is a fighter that only come to its right among a multitude of different squadrons. You might for example aiming at having ten squadrons and already have four Tie-fighters and some Aces and like to add the Phantom for its utility in a mixed squadron wing.

I think the Phantom is an acquired taste and need some trying to appreciate.

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When Sloane comes all you need is a swarm of jumpmasters. Better hull than ties, swarm and can move and/or shoot squadrons or ships at will depending on the game course thanks to intel.

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, xerpo said:

When Sloane comes all you need is a swarm of jumpmasters. Better hull than ties, swarm and can move and/or shoot squadrons or ships at will depending on the game course thanks to intel.

But they only have two offensive die's which is not great. It is usually better to kill the opponent squad and never get attacked. The you need neither Intel or that much hull. You are far better of to mix your squadrons. Make it harder to counter your tactics.

Edited by jorgen_cab

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I'm going to try Phantoms when I get Sloane and another Imp pack. I want to see what Phantoms and Defenders can do paired together.

I think using Phantoms comes down to how much you want to gamble. Sure, you can take the almost guaranteed damage from a Tie/F, but I want to see how many double hits I can roll in a game. Or see how many blanks.

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Cloak is the worst implemented keyword in Armada. It's boring, not thematic at all, and can be horribly broken when allowed to ride the station.
 If anything in Armada needs a rewrite it's Cloak. I'm still surprised this is what they came up with for Cloak.

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This will singlehandedly allow me to win worlds by putting in on all of my Arquitens.  5x Arquitens with this flying slow will absolutely crush all who oppose me.   Seriously dude.....  

ninclouse2000 likes this

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16 minutes ago, Crabbok said:

This will singlehandedly allow me to win worlds by putting in on all of my Arquitens.  5x Arquitens with this flying slow will absolutely crush all who oppose me.   Seriously dude.....  

Are you sure this is in the right thread? Thinking you mean quad turrets....

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6 hours ago, Tokra said:

 

But this might be, because i don't like the Tie Phantom. I think it is way to bad for the cost.  I am a bit biased when it comes to this squadron :D.

 

 

Actually, your fundamental assumption is that you assume to have the Squadron command ability to utilise them on a 2:1 basis.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing - just some of the lists you have shown off and used does point to why you would think that way :) 

 

TIE fighters will be better with the wholesale squad commands.

If squad commands are at a premium - Phantoms are.

Wes Janson and SkyCake like this

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Believe you math is wrong, each tie has a 1 in 4 chance of drawing a crit. As blue dice have 4 hits, 2 crits and 2 acc. So 2 in 8 is rounded to 1 in 4. Not sure where you are getting the reroll from?

The phantom shooting two reds means each red has a 1 in 2 chance of doing nothing as reds have 2 hits, 2 crits, 1 acc, 1 double hit and 2 blanks. So the crits and blanks mean 4 in 8 or 1 in 2. So 50% of the time each red dice can be worthless to you.

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3 minutes ago, mobow213 said:

Believe you math is wrong, each tie has a 1 in 4 chance of drawing a crit. As blue dice have 4 hits, 2 crits and 2 acc. So 2 in 8 is rounded to 1 in 4. Not sure where you are getting the reroll from?

Sloanes ability to reroll crits while attacking ships.

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4 minutes ago, Drasnighta said:

Sloanes ability to reroll crits while attacking ships.

 Ok but that reroll still has a 1 in 4 chance for blue and a 1 in 2 chance for red. That odds dont decrease cause you get a reroll.

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Yes, but the overall chance of ending on something "other than a Crit" is reduced because of it.

You asked where the reroll was coming from - that is where.  That's all :)

jbrandmeyer likes this

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Posted (edited)

Phantoms add options.  Consider this core:

  • Admiral Sloane
  • 2x Comm Net Gozanti
  • Gladiator-I, Demolisher, Skilled First Officer, Ordnance Experts, APT
  • 3x TIE Phantoms
  • 1x Jumpmaster

I think that works out to 204 points, so there is plenty of freedom to add sides and seasoning to taste for this recipe.

On Turn N, Demo sets up her attack run for the the top of turn N+1.  Demo starts off carrying a Nav and Squadrons token, but she may need to burn the Nav token on the way in.  Also in turn N, the Phantoms get within command range of Demo.  They somewhat prefer to move into position late in the squadron phase, but they aren't super stressed out about getting out-activated on account of their Cloak.  At the end of turn N's squadron phase, the Phantoms bamf out of combat.  The Jumpmaster is there mostly to make it even harder to lock down the Phantoms, but she can also act as a last resort for Demo's run.

Turn N+1, Demo reveals Squadrons to hit you with 2-3 attacks that are equivalent in strength to a BCC-enabled TIE bomber, with solid odds to spend a defense token or two in addition to whatever you've got to spend defending yourself against the bombing run.  Then she double-arcs you.

Edited by jbrandmeyer

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53 minutes ago, Crabbok said:

Wow... how did that post end up in this thread.... Sorry I must have had multiple windows open. 

lol, what about 5  kittens and phantoms so that you stay on topic?

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The phantom was already a great multi role fighter, now giving it rerolls on all attacks and serving it up with a great flight controllers/ruthless platform, these things will be deadly...and that phantom ability is not to be underestimated, can make it quite tough to kill them or keep them off your ships

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8 hours ago, jorgen_cab said:

But they only have two offensive die's which is not great.

Curiously in a world of high braces all you need is 1 hit. Which a 2 dice swarm is capable of doing. 

Its what makes Toryn counter 2 so annoying. 

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Just now, Ginkapo said:

Curiously in a world of high braces all you need is 1 hit. Which a 2 dice swarm is capable of doing. 

Its what makes Toryn counter 2 so annoying. 

Perhaps, but a 3 dice swarm have higher chance to do both one or two damage AND an accuracy. With Sloan this is quite important where you can both ignore and spend brace and scatter tokens. When you get the five blue dice (Howlrunner and Flight-controllers) with a swarm re-roll you can comfortably do two-three damage with one or two accuracy quite often. That is devastating to hull five double brace Aces, even worse for hull 3-4 scatter aces.

3 Tie-fighters also have more hull than 2 Jumpers and you get 3*3 + Swarm attacks for 2*2 Swarm attacks but need one extra activation. If you go for a hard strike then Tie-fighters are better in every way... My idea are basically to destroy the opponent fast and then go off doing other stuff. One or two Jumpers is enough to get your bombers or fighters where they are needed.

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2 hours ago, Ginkapo said:

Curiously in a world of high braces all you need is 1 hit. Which a 2 dice swarm is capable of doing. 

Its what makes Toryn counter 2 so annoying. 

And in a world of Toryn Far and A-Wings with counter... your phantoms can simply drop back out of engagement range and ignore those pesky A-Wings! 

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16 hours ago, Crabbok said:

And in a world of Toryn Far and A-Wings with counter... your phantoms can simply drop back out of engagement range and ignore those pesky A-Wings! 

This the biggest boon to Phantoms.  If your opponent tries to scramble to engage (especially on turn 1 when no one squadron commands) you can just disengage and go over them and start hammering ships.  Sloane having some slippery squadrons that are hard to pin down is what she wants. 

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On 04/07/2017 at 2:06 PM, Undeadguy said:

I'm going to try Phantoms when I get Sloane and another Imp pack. I want to see what Phantoms and Defenders can do paired together.

I think using Phantoms comes down to how much you want to gamble. Sure, you can take the almost guaranteed damage from a Tie/F, but I want to see how many double hits I can roll in a game. Or see how many blanks.

Am going to try 4 Defenders, Jendon/Maarek and 2 Phantoms in my next game. How did your Defender/Phantom experiments go please?

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