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Fun Fact... From Announcement to In Store

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I get bored at work a lot, so I've been tracking stats on when various FFG items change status on the upcoming page and I've noticed a few things.

The core game took 251 days from announcement to in store.  Core games are all over the place.  They take as long as they take.  Expansions, on the other hand are pretty consistent.

Lord Hawethorne, Spearmen, Ankaur Maro and Reanimates were 104 days from annoucement to in store.  The other four expansions that have hit so far were 108 days from announcement to in store.  This is admittedly a tiny data set, but if it holds, I'd expect the Latari Elves Army Box to hit end of July.  7/27 would be 108 days since announcement.

Generally speaking, FFG is pretty consistent within a specific product line.  I've been able to successfully predict the release dates for all of the Arkham Horror LCG releases so far +/-1 week.  I'm expecting the next Mythos pack on 7/13 or 7/20...  probably 7/20.

 

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1 hour ago, Contrapulator said:

See the pattern?

zRSm61v.png

I too have noticed the trend of 3rd thursday for expansions (sample set 2).  I suppose it could also be 'teen thursday' though.

 

I say July 20th though, not 13th

Edited by Darthain

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The pattern this far is either the Thursday if the second full week of the month or the Thursday before the third Saturday of the month. We'll need a month that starts on Sunday to tell the difference.

Either way, I'm still wondering what we get along with the siege units next month. Maybe we get the essentials pack earlier than we expected, along with mats?  Or maybe the Elves Army box will magically teleport to our hemisphere with minimal shipping time. Probably not, though. It'd sure be interesting if the August release was the army box along with either two units and Maegyn or all three core units...

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2 hours ago, kaffis said:

The pattern this far is either the Thursday if the second full week of the month or the Thursday before the third Saturday of the month. We'll need a month that starts on Sunday to tell the difference.

Either way, I'm still wondering what we get along with the siege units next month. Maybe we get the essentials pack earlier than we expected, along with mats?  Or maybe the Elves Army box will magically teleport to our hemisphere with minimal shipping time. Probably not, though. It'd sure be interesting if the August release was the army box along with either two units and Maegyn or all three core units...

We already have mats. Though not sure why they are holding the siege units like this. It seems like they were on the same boat as the current set of releases.

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19 minutes ago, jek said:

Yeah I don't think Elves will be out at Gencon, they are stating in trade magazines July and the established pattern would reflect that...

July!!! OMG I was totally prepared to wait till August.

I thought siege packs July, elves and essential Aug

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42 minutes ago, Ywingscum said:

July!!! OMG I was totally prepared to wait till August.

I thought siege packs July, elves and essential Aug

I may be hated for saying this, but I wouldnt mind the August release :P Gives me time to catch up... and you know... play more games with the first two factions haha

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32 minutes ago, TallGiraffe said:

Elves are on the boat now.

With that info, I think July will be the two siege units and August will be the Latari Elves Army Expansion.

With 108 days between announcement and release, if they announced the Uthuk Y'llan next Monday, they would be released on Octoboer 5th. Given that releases have been in the middle of the month, if they do release the Uthuk in October (which has been my hope/prediction for a while, since it gets them released before worlds),  they should be released on the 12th or the 19th. That means we should see an announcement article on the 19th or 26th of this month. Or they could be really far behind and the models will be shown at GenCon (like the heroes were last GenCon), and we won't actually get the Uthuk in hand until 2018. (I'm just preparing myself for disappointment.)

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Well begs the question of what's left to release... we have :

 

Latari Elves

Essentials Pack

Golems

Lancers

Death Knights

Heavy Crossbows

Maegen

Elven Archers

Elven Command

Leonx Riders

Aymhelin

Place yer bets for when the babies will arrive!

I'm thinking:

July : Golems, Lancers

August : Latari Elves, Essentials Pack

Sept : Maegen, Elven Command, Elven Archers, Leonx Riders, Aymhelin

Oct: Death Knights, Heavy Crossbows

 Death Knights/Crossbows in Oct doesn't sit right with me tho, but I would think they wouldn't want to go crazy with new product all loaded up for one month. You never know.

 

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Also I think waiting for gencon to announce Uthuk when they basically ended the leonx article with "whelp we are done with elves scary barbarians are on the horizon" would be stupid...and upsetting.  I think gencon would be a better place to announce future models for the factions and how the OP is going to function in the upcoming seasons.

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They could release the large models with the elves and essentials so it would be 4, but i'd suspect they'd be pairs both because thats a month longer yet again wait for the large models and while thats 4 items to release its also the only non-core expansions so far to be more than 25USD, one of which is quite large
Quite frankly doesnt matter to me if the golems come out in July since i just got shafted with another business trip about that time anyway...fml....

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2 hours ago, jek said:

They have been doing every release with 4 items, I think July will be Heavies, elves, and essentials.  I think waiting for Gencon for the Elves will be a huge mistake.

And it will let them release four of the five announced (and expected) Latari units to catch them up with Daqan and Waiqar (Archers, Leonx, Maegyn, and infantry upgrades, most likely, if the pattern of heavies coming last holds) in August. Then, the September release (with early sales at GenCon as is their habit) will likely be Scions, Crossbows, Death Knights, and Uthuk core Army. October them ends up Elven melee infantry, Uthuk core units 1, 2, and either an Uthuk hero or the Uthuk infantry command upgrades. November gets whichever leader box didn't get the October slot, Uthuk's siege, 4th unit type, and probably a terrain pack (or maybe a fifth faction, but I think we won't see more factions till around GenCon 2018). From there, we can get one new box per faction each month, maintaining the 4 box per wave thing while keeping the armies with similar options and variety in choices. We still need cavalry banners and champions, and then probably new siege units and a third set of heroes, as well.

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