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brettpkelly

Records to make cuts at Worlds

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Just to give people some realistic expectations of the cuts at worlds here are some quick calculations.  These numbers aren’t exact, they will depend on who wins the odd-man-out matchups when there are odd numbers in a record bracket.  The Worlds format for IA is 5 rounds of Swiss followed by a cut to the top 54, then 2 more rounds of Swiss followed by a cut to top 16.  Your record after the first 5 rounds will stay, but the tiebreaker points are reset.  Here are the percentiles for Swiss after 5 rounds:
 

round 5

record

%

percentile

5-0

3.13%

3.13%

4-1

15.63%

18.75%

3-2

31.25%

50.00%

2-3

31.25%

81.25%

1-4

15.63%

96.88%

0-5

3.13%

100.00%

 

So if 100 people enter the tournament, you need a 3-2 record to guarantee the top 54 cut and approximately 4 people with 2-3 records will move on.  To figure it out based on a different number of participants, just take 54/(# of participants) to figure out what percentile you need to be in to move on.  If 64 people enter, a 2-3 record should  guarantee top 54.
 

Here are the percentiles after 7 rounds of Swiss:
 

round 7

record

%

percentile

7-0

0.78%

0.78%

6-1

5.47%

6.25%

5-2

16.41%

22.66%

4-3

27.34%

50.00%

3-4

27.34%

77.34%

2-5

16.41%

93.75%

1-6

5.47%

99.22%

0-7

0.78%

100.00%


So if 100 people enter you need to have a 6-1 record to guarantee a spot in the top 16 and approximately 9 people with 5-2 records will make it.  To get the dice you need to be in the top 32.  If 100 people enter a 5-2 record will guarantee top 32 and approximately 9 people with 4-3 records will get the dice.  If 64 people enter you need a 4-3 record for dice (1 or 2 people might get screwed) and everyone with a 5-2 record should make the top 16.  16/(# of entries) to figure out percentile.

If someone has a good estimate for the number of participants I can get you better numbers.

-Brett

Edited by brettpkelly

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10 minutes ago, brettpkelly said:

It says on their prize page in the IA section: https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/op/world-championships-may/prizes/

Oh got it. I hope the reveal what tokens/cards/etc look like soon...

 

I also hope they do bounties again this year. Last year they would plop a promo or 2 at each table from older kits and say the winner gets choice. Got a lot of cool promos from that, is love to see that happen again.

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1 hour ago, ThatJakeGuy said:

I also hope they do bounties again this year. Last year they would plop a promo or 2 at each table from older kits and say the winner gets choice. Got a lot of cool promos from that, is love to see that happen again.

That sounds awesome...

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Keep in mind they it says up to 54, not top 54.  My guess is that they will have the progression cut at X-2, unless there's a really large amount of attendees.  There was about 80+ in November, I'd expect a similar number next week.

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1 hour ago, miguelj said:

Keep in mind they it says up to 54, not top 54.  My guess is that they will have the progression cut at X-2, unless there's a really large amount of attendees.  There was about 80+ in November, I'd expect a similar number next week.

Gotcha, I just figured that was for if there were less than 54 attendees.  I doubt the cut would be less than 32 since that is the prize cutoff.

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