# Records to make cuts at Worlds

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Just to give people some realistic expectations of the cuts at worlds here are some quick calculations.  These numbers aren’t exact, they will depend on who wins the odd-man-out matchups when there are odd numbers in a record bracket.  The Worlds format for IA is 5 rounds of Swiss followed by a cut to the top 54, then 2 more rounds of Swiss followed by a cut to top 16.  Your record after the first 5 rounds will stay, but the tiebreaker points are reset.  Here are the percentiles for Swiss after 5 rounds:

 round 5 record % percentile 5-0 3.13% 3.13% 4-1 15.63% 18.75% 3-2 31.25% 50.00% 2-3 31.25% 81.25% 1-4 15.63% 96.88% 0-5 3.13% 100.00%

So if 100 people enter the tournament, you need a 3-2 record to guarantee the top 54 cut and approximately 4 people with 2-3 records will move on.  To figure it out based on a different number of participants, just take 54/(# of participants) to figure out what percentile you need to be in to move on.  If 64 people enter, a 2-3 record should  guarantee top 54.

Here are the percentiles after 7 rounds of Swiss:

 round 7 record % percentile 7-0 0.78% 0.78% 6-1 5.47% 6.25% 5-2 16.41% 22.66% 4-3 27.34% 50.00% 3-4 27.34% 77.34% 2-5 16.41% 93.75% 1-6 5.47% 99.22% 0-7 0.78% 100.00%

So if 100 people enter you need to have a 6-1 record to guarantee a spot in the top 16 and approximately 9 people with 5-2 records will make it.  To get the dice you need to be in the top 32.  If 100 people enter a 5-2 record will guarantee top 32 and approximately 9 people with 4-3 records will get the dice.  If 64 people enter you need a 4-3 record for dice (1 or 2 people might get screwed) and everyone with a 5-2 record should make the top 16.  16/(# of entries) to figure out percentile.

If someone has a good estimate for the number of participants I can get you better numbers.

-Brett

Edited by brettpkelly

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23 hours ago, brettpkelly said:

To get the dice you need to be in the top 32.

When did they announce this? I hadn't seen the prizes/promos anywhere yet.

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7 minutes ago, ThatJakeGuy said:

When did they announce this? I hadn't seen the prizes/promos anywhere yet.

It says on their prize page in the IA section: https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/op/world-championships-may/prizes/

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10 minutes ago, brettpkelly said:

It says on their prize page in the IA section: https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/op/world-championships-may/prizes/

Oh got it. I hope the reveal what tokens/cards/etc look like soon...

I also hope they do bounties again this year. Last year they would plop a promo or 2 at each table from older kits and say the winner gets choice. Got a lot of cool promos from that, is love to see that happen again.

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1 hour ago, ThatJakeGuy said:

I also hope they do bounties again this year. Last year they would plop a promo or 2 at each table from older kits and say the winner gets choice. Got a lot of cool promos from that, is love to see that happen again.

That sounds awesome...

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Keep in mind they it says up to 54, not top 54.  My guess is that they will have the progression cut at X-2, unless there's a really large amount of attendees.  There was about 80+ in November, I'd expect a similar number next week.

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1 hour ago, miguelj said:

Keep in mind they it says up to 54, not top 54.  My guess is that they will have the progression cut at X-2, unless there's a really large amount of attendees.  There was about 80+ in November, I'd expect a similar number next week.

Gotcha, I just figured that was for if there were less than 54 attendees.  I doubt the cut would be less than 32 since that is the prize cutoff.

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Strength of schedule is not getting reset going into tomorrow.  As things stand there will definitely be only 1 person at 7-0 and 6 people at 6-1.  That means 9 people with 5-2 records will make the top 16.  5-2 guarantees dice. A couple 4-3 people will get them too.

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Wow.  You been spending some time on this bud.

Well, good luck!  I'm rooting for you!

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