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SwagonBallZ

Dice Probability Spreadsheet

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Just like the title suggests, I threw together a spreadsheet that shows the probabilities of specific outcomes. Each row is a combination of dice thrown together indicated by the Dice column, ex: 2R1B = 2 red dice and 1 blue dice. Each column indicates the probability of rolling at least the number at the top of the column of that particular symbol, not taking into account counts of other symbols showing, re-rolls due to Precise or multiple ranks, nor abilities.

I don't think this is uncovering anything we didn't already have gut feelings about, but I hope this helps in your mid-game decision making!

EDIT 2017-04-28

I've expanded the program I wrote to make the initial spreadsheet to account for rerolls and extra dice (flanking, upgrades, etc). Since there's now so many conditions I can't fit all probabilities into screenshots cleanly, so I've moved my data to a google doc here. Rerolls were calculated assuming that any die that is not showing the symbol is rerolled.

EDIT 2017-04-29

Added columns for calculating blanks. I chose to keep the reroll logic the same, where it rerolls anything that's not a blank, as I assume blanks were wanted due to upgrades like Reaping Blade.

EDIT 2017-05-02

Added Hawthorne and Ankaur. I don't think their upgrade cards has been shown yet, I imagine Ankaur will add a white die and Hawthorne a red but not sure yet.

Edited by SwagonBallZ

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3 hours ago, noteclado said:

Great!

 

Is it possible to add the blank results?

 

 

Thanks! Blanks will be easy enough to add, just another enumeration in the engine.

EDIT 2017-04-29

And blanks are now there

Edited by SwagonBallZ

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25 minutes ago, taylorcowbell said:

This is awesome, I would love to see the code behind it, I was struggling to make something like this for myself haha

Without going into too much detail, the data structure of the engine looks like this:

Enumerators:

  • Symbol - this is the list of symbols that show up on the sides of the dice. Hit, Surge, etc
  • DieColor - Red, Blue, and White. Used as an input parameter for the Die ctor.

Classes:

  • DieSide - represents a single side of a die, maintains a list of Symbols
  • Die - as you can guess, represents a game Die. Maintains a list of DieSide objects
  • SymbolProbability - An instance of this represents the odds of rolling a particular number of a particular symbol. The Die class is capable of outputting a list of these for itself (modified by things like rerolls), and the overall Engine class maintains a big list of these for the entire 'roll' (set of dice).
  • DiceEngine - a static class with a method for calculating the probability of rolling a particular amount of a particular symbol, and a method for calculating the average number of a symbol with a List of Die objects as the input.

When I get home from work I can PM a dropbox link of the code.

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That makes sense, I'd love to see it. My knowledge of coding languages is bad, so I tend to make things work just with extremely long excel formulae but was having issues incorporating multiple different dice at the same time.

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8 hours ago, Bhelliom said:

This is really handy, thanks. The only issue I see is that I think you have the Rune Golems' threat wrong in the efficiency tab - Brutal adds either 1 or 2 threat, where you have it adding 0 or 1.

Thanks. That tab is still a WIP (still trying to find a good, non-arbitrary way to equate the efficiencies) but good catch, I've corrected it. Been unable to do more damage on that tab and the yet-to-be-made latari tab as I've been dealing with a leaky basement lately

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