Regionals Data - The Impact of Flotillas

[WWPDSteven 2,215]

I'm going to way in here, and I expect to be shouted down. I do not think the sky is falling, nor do I think the end of the world is nigh- just to nip that in the bud. 

What I do think is Flotillas have done more harm than good for the game, but they've definitely done both. I also think the conclusions from Shmitty's data in this thread are not CONCLUSIONS. They are merely facts about flotilla usage. 

I have been mostly publicly silent, but I will share with you all right now that Armada is not presently scratching the itch for me. The "3 Flotilla plus any 2 other ships" plus relay plus life boats has put a severe damper on the game's enjoyment for me. The game mechanically is fine, but to be quite honest after many games I've just gotten bored seeing that paradigm. I am going to touch on a few topics below:

*Caldias' suggestion to fix Armada. I love Caldias dearly and consider him a very good personal friend. I do not think his proposed fix would "fix" the current state of Armada. Many of the 5 ship lists with a big ship don't care about going 2nd at all. In fact, vs the Ackbar ultra-Defiance pickle or my Cracken 'Vette list or even Craig's own MC-30 Mothma fest going second is not a drawback.

*The Flotilla "Problem". I think Shmitty's data shows clearly that Flotillas are important because they allow any fleet to compete in the activations game. Others above have pointed out that they are a response to MSU. I think that's true! I think the unintended side effect, however, is that they are almost an absolute necessity right now, and Shmitty's data shows that as well. We got the good with the bad. Great that large ships can compete (although rarely is it more than 1...) which has led to the weird homogenous meta. 

For me, honestly, the problem I am having with Armada right now isn't a mechanical one. Th Last-first "over activation" is an issue, but it can be mitigated. The problem is that because last-first is so powerful, lists are consistently bringing 4-5 ships just so they can play the delay game. "Oh cool, you activate a Flotilla with relay going speed 1 on your back edge. Awesome. STAR WARS!"

I'm sure I'll be told how uncreative I'm being or that I need to get gud or whatever. But, frankly, many top tier players I have secret chats with are more or less in agreement. My concern is that the game has stopped feeling like Star Wars and has started feeling like a gamey set of mechanics that happen to use space ships. Imperial Assault was in this place when it first launched. They wisely altered the back and forth activations to allow the pass mechanic, and you know what the worlds 2016 lists were? A group of stormtroopers vs a group of rebel troopers. Felt and looked like Star Wars, man.

 

 

 

[Reinholt 1,719]

While I have not been impressed with the analytical chops of this forum before, this is embarrassing. I suggest the exact incorrect conclusion is being drawn. Put differently:

Wave 2:

• Average Activations: 3.68
• Most Common Brackets: 3,4, representing 60% of fleets

Wave 3/4:

• Average Activations: 4.36
• Most Common Brackets: 4,5, representing 66% of fleets

Wave 5:

• Average Activations: 4.49
• Most Common Brackets: 4,5, representing 81% of fleets

So what do we see?

First, flotillas are essentially an auto-include

Virtually no Regionals winning fleet exists without flotillas, and they are ubiquitous across the board. When a new player begins the game, the next thing they should buy after the core set is a flotilla or, better yet, 3 flotillas, in basically all cases. No, little Timmy, put down the super cool ISD and buy those Gozantis. Deal with it. Consider: in the a majority of Regionals, nobody in the top 4 did not have a flotilla. How would the community feel if this was the MC80, perhaps? Clearly the flotilla itself is driving what else can be played in the meta.

 

Second, activation diversity has fallen dramatically

In wave 2, 47% of Regionals winners ran 2 or 3 activations. In wave 5, that number is 9%. There has been 80% drop in the appearance of 2-3 activation fleets. The top two activation brackets represented less than 2/3rds of fleets in wave 2, and now they represent 4 out of 5 fleets. Fleets have consolidated into 4 or 5 activations. You are a fool to run anything else, unless you want to push even higher.

 

Third, there is less shooting than ever

This ties in with what Steve was just saying above me, and the punch line is that I agree with him. However, one thing to consider is this: when flotillas exist in size, that means a majority of game time is now devoted to either pushing some pokey transport on the back board edge using relay, or drifting in space near the big stuff passing off a token and then waiting.

 

So my core problem is threefold:

First, the activation problem has not been adequately solved. Even in wave 5, which did not introduce cheap ships (the arq and the pelta both being medium priced), activation count continued to increase. I will go out on a limb and predict that without further changes to the game, this will continue to increase in wave 6, and at worlds. Most 4 activation lists will probably be better as 5 activation lists, and should go there. Over time, they will. The 2 ship + 3 flotilla meta is real.

 

Second, the flotilla on back edge as delay problem is just boring (and is tied into the activation issues, as well as relay, which is its own thing for another day). Is it balanced? Very possible. But I can tell you that in more than one game, I have had new players walk past and ask me about what was going on, and invariably point to the flotillas on the back board edge and ask "those are dead, right" or something of that sort. No, kid, that's been there all game spamming squad commands and no, kid, I don't intend to actually get it close to anything. It leaves a bad taste in the mouth of people looking at the game from outside, and I think the community on these boards, being neck deep in Armada juices constantly, is blind to that. This will badly hurt FFG in the long run because rule number one of gaming is that people actually have to want to play your game, and stuff like this repels them.

 

Third, people can shout all they want, but fleet diversity cannot be mandatory diversity. "Oh we get all this great stuff now, so long as you started with flotillas" is not diversity. The flotilla is an unwieldy patch on an issue with the core rules if you have to take one in order to unlock "diversity". I will go back to my core point: FFG needs to re-think initiative and activation order for this game. That's where the problem really is, and why you are seeing flotillas everywhere and always. It's going to lead to the same kinds of meta problems that other games which have gone down this path have had, and I am also opposed to using an upgrade card to fix it (because then everyone just takes flotillas PLUS the upgrade card, which... okay, now we have more mandatory cards before "diversity" can be taken?) unless you cannot take said upgrade if you have a flotilla anywhere in your fleet. Don't make the problem worse. Make it better.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Reinholt

[GammonLord 324]

Cheers for the data @shmitty - big ask but could we compare flotilla usage to fighter usage? Maybe see a correlation between cheaper carriers = more fighters or maybe cheap flotillas enabling smaller but more effective minimal screens? (all hypothetical ruminations, I'm not advocating a "squadrono-pocalypse viewpoint! just curious )

[Undeadguy 5,749]

16 minutes ago, WWPDSteven said:

"Oh cool, you activate a Flotilla with relay going speed 1 on your back edge. Awesome. STAR WARS!"

 

4 minutes ago, Reinholt said:

when flotillas exist in size, that means a majority of game time is now devoted to either pushing some pokey transport on the back board edge using relay,

You guys should come and play in NC. I think I'm the only one who has heavily invested a fleet into flotilla activation with Relay (2 flotillas and 2 VCX). So we don't see this problem very often.

[WWPDSteven 2,215]

Interesting, Undeadguy, I saw both Craig and Keith saying otherwise  I come to Raleigh quite a bit, and hang with those guys and R1H4 all the time. Pretty sure every game I've played down there has had 5+ Flotillas on the board

[Reinholt 1,719]

1 minute ago, WWPDSteven said:

Interesting, Undeadguy, I saw both Craig and Keith saying otherwise  I come to Raleigh quite a bit, and hang with those guys and R1H4 all the time. Pretty sure every game I've played down there has had 5+ Flotillas on the board

If you're trying to talk trash to me and R1H4 about running all these stupid flotillas, I should forewarn you that we no longer have human emotions, Mr. Skyshuffler.

[CaribbeanNinja 6,207]

21 minutes ago, WWPDSteven said:

excellent...well thought out stuff.

My only response @WWPDStevenis I was actually feeling the opposite visually about flotillas.  The moment they entered the mix, it now really seems like we have fleet battles.  I am almost depressed to hear that such a pillar of this community isn't getting his itch scratched by Armada.

9 minutes ago, Reinholt said:

Great statistical stuff...and great analysis

I will not pretend to be able to grasp or draw intelligent conclusions like either @shmitty or @Reinholt.  I will say and agree that flotillas are everywhere and I personally think FFG wanted it that way.

Now, what I do think EVERYONE can agree upon, is that one of the great things about Armada is the community of nerds that adore it.  Nobody needs to "shout" at anyone.  Everybody get there opinions out there.

[WWPDSteven 2,215]

Considering R1H4 threw a bunch of Zombies and a mindflayer at our hapless party with no care for the outcome, I'd say he's long been dead inside. His emotion circuit malfunctioned long, long ago.

[WWPDSteven 2,215]

@CaribbeanNinja in Wave 4 I think that was true! They were at the peak! I think relay and life boats have now made them hide on the board edge, which changed them from "Awesome ships everywhere!" to "oh, cool, ships just sitting back out of play".

 

Quote

Now, what I do think EVERYONE can agree upon, is that one of the great things about Armada is the community of nerds that adore it.  Nobody needs to "shout" at anyone.  Everybody get there opinions out there.

Right. It's always important to remember that everyone is voicing their opinions because they care about the game. The only thing I can't stand is responses like "be more creative" or "get good", especially when many top tier players are sharing similar concerns.

Edited April 5, 2017 by WWPDSteven

[Captain Weather 1,190]

4 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

The moment they entered the mix, it now really seems like we have fleet battles

Just to echo Steven, I think the issue is now that it's very disincentivised to put those flotillas into harms way. 

I love them visually, but in the source material they're in the thick of things and getting blown up by big ships and it's great. 

With their innate scatter, the cost of ship based counters to this, the efficiency of life-boating, and now relay, it's just a dumb play not to throw them way in the back line and out of harms way. 

The problem with that is how incredibly boring it is, at least personally. 

The comment Steve made about 'ok I activate my flotilla in the middle of nowhere at speed 1. STAR WARS YEAH' really hit home for me. 

[Reinholt 1,719]

5 minutes ago, Captain Weather said:

Just to echo Steven, I think the issue is now that it's very disincentivised to put those flotillas into harms way. 

I love them visually, but in the source material they're in the thick of things and getting blown up by big ships and it's great. 

With their innate scatter, the cost of ship based counters to this, the efficiency of life-boating, and now relay, it's just a dumb play not to throw them way in the back line and out of harms way. 

The problem with that is how incredibly boring it is, at least personally. 

The comment Steve made about 'ok I activate my flotilla in the middle of nowhere at speed 1. STAR WARS YEAH' really hit home for me. 

 

What, you don't think it's great that in an epic fleet battles game, the most common ship being fielded in regionals has no guns and never engages?

 

Smiley face.

[Englishpete 1,379]

I am in almost complete agreement with Steve. The major point that needs to be addressed above all else is initiative and activation, the rules as written, are simply flawed and are allowing, even forcing, the use of flotilla's in the manner they are currently used.

As mentioned, IA had the same issue and an elegant resolution was found. Armada needs the same thing to happen. Regardless of the models on the table, they could be WWII naval ships, the game is devolving into a meta that will harm sales and new pickup.

The game is becoming boring and that needs to change.

[Xeletor 403]

It is also useful to put the flotillas in the middle of the fight. Toryn or Hackers provoke shots, diverting them from your other ships. Many times a flotilla blocked an ISDs movement, keeping it in black range or on an asteroid. 

Keeping the flotillas safe has a cost. Relay costs as much as another flotilla (2VCX or 1 Shuttle with escort).

[CaribbeanNinja 6,207]

Yeah I hear you guys, as RELAY has allowed the flotillas to hover in the back, and have very little consequences.  Hopefully the mix of tools we currently have, and the mix of tools we will get in Wave 6 will make running Flotillas in the backfield harder.  I can see the Hammerhead as a really cheap ramming Lifeboat Popper.  

 

[WWPDSteven 2,215]

Quote

Many times a flotilla blocked an ISDs movement, keeping it in black range or on an asteroid. 

Which, honestly, is a different problem all on its own

[Englishpete 1,379]

Just now, WWPDSteven said:

Which, honestly, is a different problem all on its own

Indeed it is Steve.

[Englishpete 1,379]

I will be TO'ing Stele this Friday and I am really interested to see what hits the table. The 44 players attending should be a nice sample size.

[PT106 2,316]

2 minutes ago, Captain Weather said:

Just to echo Steven, I think the issue is now that it's very disincentivised to put those flotillas into harms way.

I totally agree with this. With the current rules there are too many ways for flotillas to provide too much benefit (Activations, Lifeboats, Relay. And I don't even mention Most Wanted) without participating in a battle itself and with no way for opponent to mitigate this benefit by killing flotilla until mid/late game. Another issue (at least that's my feeling) is that nowadays when trying to build a fleet I feel like I'm trying to fit a fleet balanced for 400 points into 300 points battle (as I need to reserve 25-50 points to add a flotilla or two for activation parity and 40-60 points for squadron cover before I start assembling the fleet. And this significantly limits fleet variety)

[Caldias 2,209]

I agree with Steve, Reinholt, EnglishPete, CaptainWeather, and pt106.  I've gone into my reasons in that other thread, but would just like to say that they are echoing my feelings/observations about the game and I do hope it gets better sooner than later because I love Armada and the community.

[CaribbeanNinja 6,207]

So I'm a miniatures game noob really (Hardcore Armada, Semi-soft IA). How do/did other mini games prevent or fix activation advantage? 

I'm concerned if they do a wholesale change to Armada, it'll ruin the first player/second player/objectives dynamic that I truly love. 

[Snipafist 7,536]

@Ginkapo got some well-deserved pushback in the other flotilla complaining and counter-complaining thread for being unnecessarily abrasive and demeaning.

Whenever someone (I've done it, but I'm not the only one) suggests that @Blail Blerg's squadron problems are probably due to him just not being as good as his opponent, the thread explodes.

52 minutes ago, Reinholt said:

While I have not been impressed with the analytical chops of this forum before, this is embarrassing. I suggest the exact incorrect conclusion is being drawn.

But when @Reinholt comes in and says "you see I've always felt you guys were stupid, but now you're an embarrassment" we all just kind of go "this is fine."

[WWPDSteven 2,215]

@CaribbeanNinja I'm not sure it would dramatically alter the first player/second player dynamic. First player would STILL have the first activation option. Second player would still get to use their objective. In IA the first player/second player dynamic works pretty well in terms of picking ideal starting location.

Many many games do things very differently. In many of those games, they don't face quite the same situation as Armada. Numerous many games don't even have alternating activations, but rather IGOUGO where you complete everything then your opponent does everything. Many of those types of games also feature an overwatch mechanic, and/or a move/shoot rather than shoot move. Often a moving shot is at disadvantage.

[Undeadguy 5,749]

54 minutes ago, WWPDSteven said:

Interesting, Undeadguy, I saw both Craig and Keith saying otherwise  I come to Raleigh quite a bit, and hang with those guys and R1H4 all the time. Pretty sure every game I've played down there has had 5+ Flotillas on the board

Well I can't comment on the amount of flotillas on the board, but I have yet to see either of them with a fleet that abuses Relay in the fashion you are talking about, with the exception being the fleet I already mentioned. Maybe they play them when I'm not around 

But I do understand the issue you are seeing and talking about. I just have been lucky enough to be with a good group of people who don't try to break the game with crazy stupid ideas like Relay abuse or Rieekan Rammers.

[Ardaedhel 10,840]

With basically all of the most vocal anti-flotilla voices coming from the East Coast--and few dissenters--this is starting to sound a lot like an Eastern seaboard meta problem. Very rarely do I see flotillas camping out in the back lines just relaying and hiding. Sure, they're always on the table (just like they're always on screen), but they're not running away most of the time.

On the other hand, I also bring credible, effective threats to present them if they do so, which incentivizes my opponent to use his ships to protect them rather than run away with them. And not just me, but most successful players do so, because it's just so easy to roll mitigations to this issue into virtually any kind of fleet without hurting the fleet overall.

Accuracy tech, Jendon/Maarek, Home One, IO, and ET ramming all fit well to directly address the flotillas; Slicer Tools shut down their commands. Hell, why aren't you killing the relay to leave the whole squadron ball high and dry if people are camping their activators all the way across the board??

And speaking of shouting people down, @Reinholt, opening with an ad hominem attack against everybody here is not the way to keep it civil.

[WWPDSteven 2,215]

Abusing relay was just one facet of the issue I am suggesting. I know from first hand black-dice experience that Craigory absolutely uses Flotillas as activation stalls, which is another facet of the gem, and partially what drove the inclusion of flotillas in the first place: To allow everyone to get a high number of activations!