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MajorJuggler

2016 Worlds Results

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Would be awesome if you could get something for the work you would have done anyway.

We could probably talk Joe Boss into replying to whatever thread it gets posted in with a very colorful "Good Post!" with a bunch of cartoon space ships in it?

How's that for sweetening the pot MJ?

Joe Boss loves MathWing...

Yeah let's go do this!

Hey any chance MJ might make his work public again if we talk JBR7 into spamming "good posts" for him??

Edited by ForceM

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13 out of 16 lists used at least one of TWO upgrade cards.

x7 Defender title

Engine Upgrade

What would really make Joe Boss happy, is if Starvipers, X-wings, and several other were better at pew-pew-ing. That would be a win all around for everyone!

One exception was Corranda... but that one uses TLT, so everyone has its toys i guess!

Edit: Whoops Corran had EU of course. Missed that!

Edited by ForceM

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I do know MJ thought/knew that Palp Defenders was one of the best values in the game, so at least for that, he has some predicative creds. 

 

Sheeeeit.  I haven't had a math class since Calculus in the summer following my sophomore year in high school, and I knew that before it was a gleam in Bob's eye.

 

(I don't, BTW, think Palpatine is broken ... as long you kill the ******' Lambda first.)

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  1. Fenn / Teroch / Manaroo. Ironically haven't precisely math'ed Mindlink Fenn + Manaroo yet even though that's what I'm flying lately.

 

When you get around to mathing out that one, I'd love to see the math on ptl fenn with rec spec manaroo as well.  Personally I've been running the ptl version of fenn because I don't want to give up the double repositioning (or reposition and another action, or focus/tl if I can't/don't want to pass tokens from manaroo on a given round).  I've been running it with a party bus, but debating various other options for the third ship, including mindlinking manaroo to said third ship (but keeping fenn with ptl).  Planning to try out mindlink zuckuss, so he can get focus from mindlink and evade for his action, with TLs from FCS or dengar, then manaroo can pass her to focus tokens to fenn as needed (though doing so leaves her tokenless).

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I do know MJ thought/knew that Palp Defenders was one of the best values in the game, so at least for that, he has some predicative creds. 

 

Sheeeeit.  I haven't had a math class since Calculus in the summer following my sophomore year in high school, and I knew that before it was a gleam in Bob's eye.

 

(I don't, BTW, think Palpatine is broken ... as long you kill the ****** Lambda first.)

 

 

 

Is the best way to beat Dengaroo is by taking Manaroo out first?

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One thing that seems pretty interesting to me that is kinda going under since i started that Zuckuss=OP discussion (Sorry someone had to start i guess) is the Rebel progression throughout this tournament.

Some 25% participation.

I don't know which percentage made day2.

Only 12,5% of rebel lists in top 16.

This goes up to 25% in quarterfinals.

50% in semifinals.

50% in finals.

this is somewhat crazy!

Why did people not pick a lot of Rebels?

Why did they do so poorly in swiss, but so great in elimination?

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Well, I know Kevin Leintz fairly well, and I can use him as illustration: he's really, really good at flying Corran Horn, and he's been flying Corran Horn for a long time.  He was going to rise up to the top with a Rebel list that is absolutely punishing ... but to you if you don't know how to fly it.  In my hands, I'd be lucky to go 3-3, Day 1, with that list.  Even in the hands of a really good generalist X-Wing player, I don't think it makes Top 16.  It's a finalist because it's a great pair of ships ... if you've got someone trained to fly them.

 

So that's part of it, I think.

 

Part of the rest of it?  Rebels got murderized by Torp-Scouts.  Torp-Scouts were nerfed very, very late.  People had invested a lot into what they'd already planned to bring, and most thought sticking with the investment was wiser than scrapping it.

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So you think most players that did play rebels did plan to play them anyway. But if they were good specialized players, we should rather have seen about 25%!rebels make the cut, no?

Okay there is of course always variance in these things...

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So you think most players that did play rebels did plan to play them anyway. But if they were good specialized players, we should rather have seen about 25%!rebels make the cut, no?

Okay there is of course always variance in these things...

 

OK these are completely made up guestimates... But lets say you had the pre-Worlds meta where trip-Scouts were a thing.

 

Well if you had 10% which would have played rebels anyway, 40% that were  going to running Torp scouts, and then 30% that were running counters to Torp Scouts from Imps /X7 palp aces, 20% that were running Scum counters.... 

 

As soon as the announcement of the FAQ came in things would have changed... The Imp/Scum counters would still be valid so many would remain with the lists they practiced with, the 10% hardcore Rebels would have remained the same... Leaving the 40% torp scouts. Those would probably have split between the factions, probably favouring Scum as a Dengaroo build would at least work with the ship they practiced.. so lets say they split 10/10/20... that would leave you with 20% Rebs, 40% Imps and 40% scum, which is quite close to what we got.. If the FAQ had been earlier, then maybe more would have shifted back to Rebs.

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So you think most players that did play rebels did plan to play them anyway. But if they were good specialized players, we should rather have seen about 25%!rebels make the cut, no?

 

Not exactly.  I think that a significant percentage of the drop-off was from people who said, "Hey, Torp-Scouts got nerfed," and then brought a Rebel list they hadn't significantly practiced with.  I think another chunk was from people just bringing "fun" lists.  (I dunno about your local meta, but in mine, the "in it for fun" players are usually the Rebels.)

 

It should be obvious that I really don't have any way of knowing ... I'm just making best guesses.

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I was hanging out with the guys that kept giving Kevin a fresh piece of gum. His plan for Dengaroo was to bait Dengar towards a corner and sprint at Manaroo, with Dengar hopefully stressed and taking three or four turns to get back in the fight. He lost to a Dengaroo in Swiss (his only other Swiss loss was final salvo against triple defenders). I believe he did get a Dengaroo list with that strategy, so he was 1-1 going into the final. I have to imagine after 11 high stress games that he wasn't thinking about how the painbot and Gonk would throw that plan off.

He also said that last move by Miranda was blocking three good options for Dengar, just not the one he took. If he had gotten the block, I'm sure he would have dropped the ion bomb and kept going. Mr Howard conceded when he was down to the palp shuttle in top four (and it sounds like that got him his flight home!) so conceding gracefully in a hopeless looking situation probably seemed more right to him than to people that watched the Dengaroo V Han + Jake.

Edited by AEIllingworth

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kinda difficult to get a special advantage if people gravitate towards the same pool of ships that his model predicts will be kinda awesome

 

True, but don't forget he hasn't released his most recent model into the public domain, or updated the info on the forum for a year or so... 

 

 

Any good mathematical model can be proven empirical, but empirical testing at the other hand will still yield the same results. So it does not matter really in the long-run. Usually it just more efficient to do the math instead do tons of experimentation first to get the same results. 

No big advantage outside of being able to say "told you so". ;-). 

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The final match of X-Wing Miniatures was very bad. Someone told me that this is what happens when the players gets exhausted after playing more than 10 hours. I think Fantasy Flight Games needs to change some stuff and not make those tourneys so much tiresome mentally and physically. Gotta have few matches per day and the finals should each be played in a different day. Then all players would be at their 100% and we would watch better quality matches.

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The final match of X-Wing Miniatures was very bad. Someone told me that this is what happens when the players gets exhausted after playing more than 10 hours. I think Fantasy Flight Games needs to change some stuff and not make those tourneys so much tiresome mentally and physically. Gotta have few matches per day and the finals should each be played in a different day. Then all players would be at their 100% and we would watch better quality matches.

 

One of the issue about worlds is that it is such a big tournament. FFG wants this to be an inclusive event which boost sales. One way to adapt the structure might be to split worlds into two events, a qualification tournament which will secure you a spot in 6 months for the main event and the main event itself which requires a qualification via nationals or the worlds side event. This way you might be able to cut worlds themselves to about 128 guys, play swiss and make a 32 player cut and play a single or double elimination with the remaining on day 2. At the same time have that big qualification tourney going on for the next worlds event.  

 

The question is: Are there enough nationals and other big tournaments to have a meaningful field of players for worlds. FFG should have those numbers, especially as they invited all national winners this year to worlds iirc. 

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kinda difficult to get a special advantage if people gravitate towards the same pool of ships that his model predicts will be kinda awesome

 

True, but don't forget he hasn't released his most recent model into the public domain, or updated the info on the forum for a year or so...

 

Any good mathematical model can be proven empirical, but empirical testing at the other hand will still yield the same results. So it does not matter really in the long-run. Usually it just more efficient to do the math instead do tons of experimentation first to get the same results. 

No big advantage outside of being able to say "told you so". ;-).

Minor quibble from someone who constructs and uses mathematical models for a living:

Any good model can be tested, in which case it either fits the data or does not fit the data. Determining the quality of a model (likelihood of it accurately describing what is happening in nature as opposed to being coincidentally correct) that fits the data is a non-trivial undertaking, and becomes worlds harder the more variables the model uses. Regardless, even at the end if this process, the model isn't proven. When presenting my own work, I would never say that a model is proven. I would say that the model is consistent with the data, and discuss the reasons why I think it is or isn't a likely description of reality.

I'll take the stick out of my ass now.

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Perhaps the most noteworthy statistic is the complete lack of any TIE Swarms (even the Crackshot variant) making 6-2. Ship usage and squad archetype stats are next in the queue.

In my experience X7 defenders are a hard counter to swarms.

 

Crackswarms can kill even a palp soontir through blocking, but defenders are both harder to block (no self stress) and have twice the health. Once the crackshots are gone you need at least 3 ties to start putting damage.

1 tie to block

1 tie to strip the evade

1 tie to maybe stick a damage...

 

If you're not blocking, then it's even harder to shoot them due to the PS advantage and the focus + evade token stack.

 

Bingo,

Brought a smaller swarm to Worlds.  Faced Palp Defenders 3 times, lost all three.  Faced triple Defenders, lost.  Beat Aces, beat Double Ghost.  Palp Defenders owns low PS swarms or mini swarms.  The problem with the meta currently is the arms race between Palp Defenders and Dengaroo/party bus.  It leaves just about everybody else out in the cold.

 

I have been thinking this for awhile, but maybe the key is... a larger swarm? What does everyone think about the old 8 Tie swarm? Maybe one as a Tie FO, or maybe a couple of the lower priced named pilots to fill it out? Wampa and Chaser?

 

idk. Would love to hear if anyone has tried out the 8 tie swarm as of late and how it went.

 

 

I flew an 8 TIE swarm with Chaser and Wampa for Vassal season 1. It did well, but I didn't win my group (Inner Rim). It has been a wave and a half since then, but I still think you will do pretty well, but not win, with an 8 TIE swarm. I recall one game against Carnor, Soontir, Palp, and I flew well, killing Palp early without losing a TIE, then, even with blocking and getting 1-2 range 1 shots against Soontir AND Carnor I couldn't get the kill. Fickle. Green. Dice. The variance is what stops it from being a top tier list.

 

Now zuckuss on the other hand removes that lucky variance....

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The final match of X-Wing Miniatures was very bad. Someone told me that this is what happens when the players gets exhausted after playing more than 10 hours. I think Fantasy Flight Games needs to change some stuff and not make those tourneys so much tiresome mentally and physically. Gotta have few matches per day and the finals should each be played in a different day. Then all players would be at their 100% and we would watch better quality matches.

 

One of the issue about worlds is that it is such a big tournament. FFG wants this to be an inclusive event which boost sales. One way to adapt the structure might be to split worlds into two events, a qualification tournament which will secure you a spot in 6 months for the main event and the main event itself which requires a qualification via nationals or the worlds side event. This way you might be able to cut worlds themselves to about 128 guys, play swiss and make a 32 player cut and play a single or double elimination with the remaining on day 2. At the same time have that big qualification tourney going on for the next worlds event.  

 

The question is: Are there enough nationals and other big tournaments to have a meaningful field of players for worlds. FFG should have those numbers, especially as they invited all national winners this year to worlds iirc.

People have a real life as well, and many probably could have problems spending 4-5 consecutive days (excluding travel time) playing x-wing, maybe far-away. Stretching it over say 2 consecutive weekends poses a problem for people from far-away as well, they either stay 2 weeks or travel 2 times. Advantageous for people in the vicinity, potentially very problematic for people from other continents.

Stretching over 2 events has the travel problem again and the meta might shift hugely between the 2 events, thus them playing maybe even a different faction next time they meet.

Difficult.

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The final match of X-Wing Miniatures was very bad. Someone told me that this is what happens when the players gets exhausted after playing more than 10 hours. I think Fantasy Flight Games needs to change some stuff and not make those tourneys so much tiresome mentally and physically. Gotta have few matches per day and the finals should each be played in a different day. Then all players would be at their 100% and we would watch better quality matches.

 One of the issue about worlds is that it is such a big tournament. FFG wants this to be an inclusive event which boost sales. One way to adapt the structure might be to split worlds into two events, a qualification tournament which will secure you a spot in 6 months for the main event and the main event itself which requires a qualification via nationals or the worlds side event. This way you might be able to cut worlds themselves to about 128 guys, play swiss and make a 32 player cut and play a single or double elimination with the remaining on day 2. At the same time have that big qualification tourney going on for the next worlds event.   The question is: Are there enough nationals and other big tournaments to have a meaningful field of players for worlds. FFG should have those numbers, especially as they invited all national winners this year to worlds iirc.
People have a real life as well, and many probably could have problems spending 4-5 consecutive days (excluding travel time) playing x-wing, maybe far-away. Stretching it over say 2 consecutive weekends poses a problem for people from far-away as well, they either stay 2 weeks or travel 2 times. Advantageous for people in the vicinity, potentially very problematic for people from other continents.Stretching over 2 events has the travel problem again and the meta might shift hugely between the 2 events, thus them playing maybe even a different faction next time they meet.Difficult.

Very good point. Had we had 2 separate events I doubt we would have had a Belgian Champion.

Fatigue is a real thing but I'm not sure thats the main reason the guy lost, it's the reason he called it but not for the lost itself. I honestly think it was a bad match up for him. He asked earlier in the stream if Dengaroo was getting through because he knew it would be a problem.

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The final match of X-Wing Miniatures was very bad. Someone told me that this is what happens when the players gets exhausted after playing more than 10 hours. I think Fantasy Flight Games needs to change some stuff and not make those tourneys so much tiresome mentally and physically. Gotta have few matches per day and the finals should each be played in a different day. Then all players would be at their 100% and we would watch better quality matches.

I disagree.  The scum player had a better plan, was more aggressive and had precise moving that won him the game.  

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The final match of X-Wing Miniatures was very bad. Someone told me that this is what happens when the players gets exhausted after playing more than 10 hours. I think Fantasy Flight Games needs to change some stuff and not make those tourneys so much tiresome mentally and physically. Gotta have few matches per day and the finals should each be played in a different day. Then all players would be at their 100% and we would watch better quality matches.

I disagree.  The scum player had a better plan, was more aggressive and had precise moving that won him the game.  

 

 

I'd love to dissect the first few turns of that match. 

 

The Conner Net drop was bold and I loved it - until Dengar slipped through with his one and only barrel roll. If Dengar had taken the long way round or cut in short, Corran and Miranda would've been ready. Then the plan fell apart. Despite it not working, that was a masterful idea and he thought of it having played 10+ hours or whatever - so I don't think we need to cut the play time down. Just keep the players motivated and playing different match ups (that's where the devs come in). 

 

Agreed that Nand deserved the win but I have the utmost respect for Kevin for bringing Corran + Miranda to the final table at 2016 Worlds. 

The players make the "meta" as much as the stats/combos do. 

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Any word from insiders on when edited matches will be up? 

 

Awesome video replay of a bunch of matches: http://www.polygon.com/2016/11/7/13550802/x-wing-miniatures-world-championships-2016-recap-twitch

 

Warning: In case it's your first time watching, the commentators speak as though they have never played this game before (despite one of them being a dev......)

Edited by Rinzler in a Tie

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if the net worked or blocked that route up and forced Nand to find a different route, would the game have played out differently?

 

What about if Kevin went for the block with Corran when Dengar went for the Sloop?

 

I think Miranda was way to out of the combat zone to early. But its a very cool list that I wanna play with some day too. 

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