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Maturin

Bomber Command Center and the single black die

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I'm curious what you bomber-loving folks do when you have a single black die bomber roll a single hit, with BCC in effect. 

 

Do you take the guaranteed damage or fish for the hit/crit?  Statistically speaking you should come out even either way since there are 2 blank faces and 2 hit/crit faces.  Is the extra critical effect worth the variation in your damage output?

 

What if you add Dodonna to the picture?

Edited by Maturin

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Rule of thumb: if damage cards can be dealt, always reroll. If damage cards can't be dealt, never reroll.

 

Don't forget - the expected outcome from a black die isn't "1 damage", it's "1 damage plus 0.25 critical effects". Rolling a single hit is, in fact, below average. Except when going against shields it makes no difference.

 

Of course, there are special situations where taking the risk isn't warranted. But those are relatively rare.

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Also if it is late in the squadron phase with few other units left to fire at your target check to see if it has a brace available.

 

Nebs and Liberties in particular with their brace of braces (do you see what I did there :D) often have a spare to spend halving a hit/crit.

 

 

 

I could also reverse the question.

If your ship has Lando or a Targeting Scrambler nearby do you ask an opponent to reroll a single hit black die. With my VSD protected by a nearby Scrambler from an MC30 flank volley I asked him to reroll the red double hit (TRC) and 2 hit/crit black dice but decided not to ask him to reroll the 4th dice that was a black single hit. 

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Most of the time I'll be happy with the 1 damage unless I'm in desperate need of something more.

 

Don't trust the re-rolls. First game with bomber command and in one turn two of my three bombers firing rolled blanks on the first roll, and re-rolled to blanks. I hate dice.

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I hate dice.

 

Rieekan 30

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

Tycho 16

 

Problem solved.

 

 

Dunno 'bout this one.  Pretty sure Tycho uses dice. Better swap him for something more......reliable. 

 

Like a Medium Transport! 

 

Just keep it away from squadrons. Wouldn't want you to have to roll any dice. ;)

 

Seriously though, I love Armada, but games that don't use dice for the win!

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Barring occasions where that hit/crit will force nasty choices on the opponent or deal crits, my rule is to reroll aggressively until the last reroll, then conservatively on the last one. 

 

So, with one single BCC and a standard black bomber, yeah, I'll generally stay on a hit.  As soon as you have two BCCs, BCC+Keyan, etc, it becomes mathematically worth it to fish for the hit/crit, until the last reroll, where you should keep the hit (all else being equal).

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2 bcc's so you can fish a bit?

The cost gets a little prohibitive because you have to pay for two transports on top of the already expensive BCC. That means it's probably a better upgrade for Rebels because their bombers are already more expensive. The Imperials have to seriously weigh whether it's better to buy a BCC which helps rolls or just get another Tie Bomber and roll more dice.

 

If you take two BCCs I think the best rule of thumb is fish for the hit crit with the first roll, don't on the second roll if it's a hit.

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Very interesting!  I have to admit I have stopped fishing for the hit/crit because it's so depressing when a hit turns into a blank.  But let's try to puzzle this out further for best outcomes...

 

 

 

 

 

Don't forget - the expected outcome from a black die isn't "1 damage", it's "1 damage plus 0.25 critical effects". Rolling a single hit is, in fact, below average. Except when going against shields it makes no difference.

 

Of course, there are special situations where taking the risk isn't warranted. But those are relatively rare.

 

Ah, some hard statistics!  I like it!  Let's run with it a bit further.  [WARNING:  extremely poor/nearly imaginary statistics ahead!]

 

So leaving aside the opportunity to exhaust brace tokens, if we take the situation where shields are exhausted so crits are in play, shouldn't you always fish for the crits?  The crit effects are usually quite nasty, and there's the 15% chance (8/52 cards) to draw a structural damage.  This increases to 60% with Dodonna (15% x 4).....

 

 

So for rules of thumb, you take the single damage until shields are down (or if you want to exhaust braces).  Then you should fish for the crit.  If you throw enough bomber dice, the effects should favor this plan.  So take lots of TIE bombers and/or Y-wings.

 

Unless I'm missing something?  Happy to be proven wrong....

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I hate dice.

 

Rieekan 30

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

CR90B SW7 44

Tycho 16

 

Problem solved.

 

 

There's a reason I switched my squads for a CR90b SW7 in my Nationals list!

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Very interesting!  I have to admit I have stopped fishing for the hit/crit because it's so depressing when a hit turns into a blank.  But let's try to puzzle this out further for best outcomes...

 

 

 

 

 

Don't forget - the expected outcome from a black die isn't "1 damage", it's "1 damage plus 0.25 critical effects". Rolling a single hit is, in fact, below average. Except when going against shields it makes no difference.

 

Of course, there are special situations where taking the risk isn't warranted. But those are relatively rare.

 

Ah, some hard statistics!  I like it!  Let's run with it a bit further.  [WARNING:  extremely poor/nearly imaginary statistics ahead!]

 

So leaving aside the opportunity to exhaust brace tokens, if we take the situation where shields are exhausted so crits are in play, shouldn't you always fish for the crits?  The crit effects are usually quite nasty, and there's the 15% chance (8/52 cards) to draw a structural damage.  This increases to 60% with Dodonna (15% x 4).....

 

 

So for rules of thumb, you take the single damage until shields are down (or if you want to exhaust braces).  Then you should fish for the crit.  If you throw enough bomber dice, the effects should favor this plan.  So take lots of TIE bombers and/or Y-wings.

 

Unless I'm missing something?  Happy to be proven wrong....

I think it kind of depends on perspective. People are excited about the BCC because they already wiff on the black dice more than they think they should. Black dice already have 75% of landing some kind of damage but that's not good enough right now because everyone has such bad experiences. You start BCCing the single hits and you could effectively start Lando-ing yourself, which sounds dirty and probably doesn't feel too good either.

 

I do think you are on the right track but I still think it's a better bet not to get greedy unless you need the extra damage or are fishing for some kind of crit effect, ala Nym.

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I don't think fishing a single black is worthwhile unless you have at least 2 bombers going. This is why will even roll single hit dice with Ordnance Experts. If I'm fishing for APT crit, I'm best off rolling all the dice rather than just the blanks.

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I call the blank faces of black dice "the tie bomber faces"

 

If I roll a single hit with Rhymer I'm pleased and surprised, if I roll a hit-crit with a tie bomber they have to call the EMTs to resuscitate me.

 

Interestingly enough, when I do testing on dice the MOST well balanced dice are inevitably the black dice, and additionally, I have been known to roll like a demon with a Raider CF front arc. So in conclusion, if rerolling with OE I will often gamble, if rerolling with BC on a tie bomber I will keep a single hit 90% of the time. 

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