Trend Analysis of Fantasy Flights Star Wars Miniature lines (Facts and opinions ahead)

[Lyraeus 4,759]

Most of us have been watching FFG release products for X-Wing and Armada for some time now. During the time watching FFG I have been observing some trends on FFG's release schedules in their various product categories and have complied the data on X-WIng Releases and Armada Releases. 

 

Now, each game is different but something that FFG tries to do, is to get a lot of their products onto one ship if they can. This saves them time and money. Not only that but card games tend to follow a simplistic release structure. You can actually see Imperial Assault follow FFG's Living Card Game release model. 

 

What does this have to do with Armada? Well X-WIng's release schedule is what Armada is based out of. However as we know there have been issues. Strikes, explosions, etc. This has limited the release of products or at least held them back. I have complied some basic data on the time between release for both Armada and X-WIng as well as the number of products between release and have found something interesting. 

 

I expect the next wave to be out within 7 months and don't expect a big release. While it could happen, I fully expect as little as 2 products, but we could see all 5 of the missing SKU's. I expect that between wave 5 through Wave 8 (we will get there) there will be about 15 products between those waves.

 

Before I post my graphs, I will say that I fully expect to be wrong somewhere and maybe everywhere. That is the nature of a limited data pool for Historical Trend Analysis. FFG is not a foreign country where I could go into depth through their historical trends of their deployments. This is a MUCH smaller data pool and thus the opinions rise dramatically

 

 

Sources: I am leaving this here in this post.

Armada Miniatures Wiki

 

X-WIng Miniatures Wiki

[Lyraeus 4,759]

For some reason, because X-WIng had their Core and Wave 1 released at the same time the graph moved over.

 

X-WIng vs Armada Release Comparison

 

What are these? 

 

It is pretty simple, by taking the amount of time between releases and the number or releases we can determine the rough estimate of when the next release will be and how far behind the curve, if there is one, that we may fall. It also helps us determine any visible trends, such as in the first 4 waves of Armada and X-Wing, we have the same number of wave based products. 

 

Over all X-WIng had more products due to the Epic ships and their need to fix issues that popped up such as with the Aces pack and what not. This is both a good thing and bad thing about Armada, but it is likely that because we don't have any "broken" ships, or ships that just cant work, we are not getting these fancy products. I am personally fine with that.

 

Currently, if wave 4 releases next month as it should, Armada will be ahead of the curve by about 4 months. This has a drawback however. We may not see another release until the 2nd anniversary of the release of Armada. There is one more thing to consider with that though. FFG seems to be timing releases so that they don't mess up tournament schedules. This last point is a rough opinion of mine with no facts other than FFG pushing wave 4 out faster than any other wave we have seen previously. We only got the full spoilers for wave 4 earlier this month and we are getting the wave already!? This begs the question as to why.

 

Some will suggest that it was because FFG did not want people to feel put off because of Wave 3. That has merit but I don't thing that is the full story. I think Asmodee is behind a lot more of this than most may consider. Asmodee could very well have a bigger hand in the pot than some of us initially thought. So far it is not a bad thing.

Edited July 28, 2016 by Lyraeus

[Lyraeus 4,759]

What can we learn from these graphs?

 

As I stated in my last post, these graphs will give us a rough timeline and a rough expectation of the amount of products that we can reasonably expect by Wave 8. This means that if we receive 5 products in wave 5, waves 6, 7, and 8 will likely have 10 products between them. 

 

Now, once again. NONE of this is set in stone. I am just an individual who did this for a living while enlisted in the US Navy. Most of you know me as a hot head on here or at least someone that is easy to get a rise out of. I am sorry about that but that really does not distract from the data so please do not dismiss this for those reasons. 

Edited July 28, 2016 by Lyraeus

[thecactusman17 3,192]

I'm gong to interrupt for just a moment. Apologies.

First off, the presence of squadrons rather muddies the waters when comparing X-Wing vs Armada, because there is no equivalent set of non-mandatory additional releases. Squadrons are important in Armada, but X-Wing does not have a release that quite represents the odd place these fall into in the game hierarchy.

When accounting for full ships only, X-Wing and Armada are much closer in terms of release pace.

Second, regarding release pacing, is that there is a precedent for the five missing SKUs. That precedent is last winter, 2015. And the release was the new core set and associated Episode 7 releases.

We are about to hit the same release window, in a matter of weeks. And market forecasts are that Star Wars is about to single-handedly save Christmas for American toy manufacturers.

So while I'm sure that this is a well researched article (and probably an attempt to drop a proverbial microphone in your argument with HERO) the reality is that it doesn't represent a comparable time frame with X-Wing, or comparable marketplaces.

[Lyraeus 4,759]

I'm gong to interrupt for just a moment. Apologies.

First off, the presence of squadrons rather muddies the waters when comparing X-Wing vs Armada, because there is no equivalent set of non-mandatory additional releases. Squadrons are important in Armada, but X-Wing does not have a release that quite represents the odd place these fall into in the game hierarchy.

When accounting for full ships only, X-Wing and Armada are much closer in terms of release pace.

Second, regarding release pacing, is that there is a precedent for the five missing SKUs. That precedent is last winter, 2015. And the release was the new core set and associated Episode 7 releases.

We are about to hit the same release window, in a matter of weeks. And market forecasts are that Star Wars is about to single-handedly save Christmas for American toy manufacturers.

So while I'm sure that this is a well researched article (and probably an attempt to drop a proverbial microphone in your argument with HERO) the reality is that it doesn't represent a comparable time frame with X-Wing, or comparable marketplaces.

You are not interrupting. I was done for the most part with edits to follow,

 

RIght now the 5 missing SKU's are unlikely to be much to do with Ep7+. THis is my opinion at least. The best they can do is make a X-WIng Raider sized Finalizer. Until more ships are see for us (which we may get) I am expecting more from Rogue 1 than I am TFA and beyond.

 

Squadrons are a product release that is part of that wave. That is my qualifier. There does not need to be an overlap between X-Wing and Armada simply because there is no way to do that.

 

For instance, in X-WIng they have 2 ship sizes. We have 3. Armada's Large ships have no real comparison in X-Wing except for maybe the Ghost which is still the same base size as a Yt-1300. X-Wing does not have flotilla's or several ships on 1 base to form a mini squadron. So direct comparisons between released products is FAR less helpful for us unfortunately. 

 

If I were to take out Squadrons, I would have to remove flotilla's and the Large ships because they have no analog in X-Wing. It would also drop the overall releases in Armada to 14 which is false since we will have 17 releases once Wave 4 is in stores.

 

Actually, the Time Between Releases shows a comparable time frame due to each release starts the countdown over. So take Wave 4 of X-Wing, it was released 9 months after X-Wing's Wave 3 which was 7 months after Wave 2 which was 5 months after Wave 1, so wave 4 in X-Wing was 21 months after initial release.

 

I sadly dont have the data from last year or this year to do a market analysis though that would be a bit outside of my expertise, I would love to learn how to do such analysies. 

 

This has to do with the argument with HERO to a degree. He got me thinking on the trends that FFG uses which I had not done since the incidents with AdmiralNelson. So I revisited my old data, complied the information and made it roughly easy to read. It is still a work in progress and is designed to be modified and added to as more data arrives. I hope to add in a side category for non wave products but alas, Armada has none until the Campaign is released. 

Edited July 28, 2016 by Lyraeus

[Baltanok 558]

As an alternate way to visualize the releases, try cumulative releases by month.

[Lyraeus 4,759]

As an alternate way to visualize the releases, try cumulative releases by month.

Why by month? Oh! To see which months if any that FFG could favor. . .  Possible. . .  Hmmm

[Folkenhellfang 132]

You had me at Excel spreadsheet, including the google docs equivalents... 

[Lyraeus 4,759]

You had me at Excel spreadsheet, including the google docs equivalents... 

I am sorry. I used what i had in hand and what I could share and modify the easiest. 

 

Going to do a year wave release comparison next and the month stack comparison 

[AllWingsStandyingBy 4,659]

This is a nice try, ...... but I've seen HERO's data, we all have.  And his analysis is spot-on.  I'm sorry, that's just the way it is.

[Lyraeus 4,759]

This is a nice try, ...... but I've seen HERO's data, we all have.  And his analysis is spot-on.  I'm sorry, that's just the way it is.

Huh? At this point I feel you just want to troll for the rise. Sorry but the facts are the facts. Armada is currently ahead in releases. If you say otherwise you ignore every fact out there. 

 

Have a good day.

[Folkenhellfang 132]

I had no intention of disparaging your good work, sir. The fact you used Google docs made this data available to the masses, and for that we thank you. I just love spreadsheets of all denominations. 

[Lyraeus 4,759]

I had no intention of disparaging your good work, sir. The fact you used Google docs made this data available to the masses, and for that we thank you. I just love spreadsheets of all denominations. 

Thank you! I like them too. I remember doing things like this for about 8 months of a countries naval and air asset activities. Fun times. 

[Lyraeus 4,759]

This is a nice try, ...... but I've seen HERO's data, we all have.  And his analysis is spot-on.  I'm sorry, that's just the way it is.

My reply was rude and I apologize for that. 

 

Feel free to show me your facts and we can have a discussion over it. I will be open minded to all facts. 

[Baltanok 558]

Why by month? Oh! To see which months if any that FFG could favor. . .  Possible. . .  Hmmm

Well, mainly I meant months since core set release. So, at 6 months after core set release, X-wing has 9 while Armada has 8, while at 12 months, both have 13, and at 18 months, Armada will have 17 to 13 for X-wing.

But knowing that FFG puts out product in August, November, and March would also tell us that we can probably expect something in Nov or Mar, but probably nothing from then until August next year.

[draco193 491]

This is a nice try, ...... but I've seen HERO's data, we all have.  And his analysis is spot-on.  I'm sorry, that's just the way it is.

Can you point to where this is at?

[draco193 491]

Lyareus, you might also want to add Imperial Assault to the comparison, since it has a very narrative aspect that we might start seeing with Armada

[Wonderbread 98]

So im "new" to ffg but to me it seems the OP schedule has some effects on releases. I feel this may of happened to wave 3. Which to me is smart. You dont want to see the same thing win regionals and worlds. With the change to the OP schedule im curious to see any change.

[Crabbok 9,868]

Armada is throwing a huge monkey wrench in your diagram because Wave 3 and Wave 4 are REALLY kinda the same wave, so it really messes with the data.  it makes it seem like they've released two entire waves within 24 hours of each other, which we all know isn't actually true. 

 

  What is ALSO throwing off the data is X-Wing's supplemental releases.   Inbetween waves we had Aces packs, Huge Ship packs, veterans packs, and lately even fluff products like dial upgrade kits and colored bases.   So it keeps the game feeling more fresh when there is SOMETHING new on the shelf every other month.  (more or less). 

 

Also, I noticed you have a product total of "7" on Armada's Wave 1.  I assume you are counting the Dice pack and Maneuver template with that?   Because those came out at different times IIRC, yet you don't seem to include X-Wing's dice pack, which came out shortly after the base game released (Not sure the exact date).   Also not includeing all the other X-Wing releases that came out prior to wave 4, such as Imperial Aces, and Huge Ships.  (I believe we had 2 huge ships for X-Wing out by that time, but I might be slightly off). 

 

  Still, good effort.   Pretty cool analysis.   I wonder if it'll pan out far different in the future, due to asmodee changing things up. 

[Crabbok 9,868]

Lyareus, you might also want to add Imperial Assault to the comparison, since it has a very narrative aspect that we might start seeing with Armada

Imperial Assault isn't painted, so it ends up being one of those products that can be produced and shipped WAY faster than X-Wing and Armada.    Might not be the best comparison. 

[HERO 842]

 

This is a nice try, ...... but I've seen HERO's data, we all have.  And his analysis is spot-on.  I'm sorry, that's just the way it is.

Can you point to where this is at?

 

 

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/225596-conflict-article/?p=2327849

 

If you follow the link inside the post, it'll make you to another area in that thread where I made an argument about the product.  How I chose to approach the gathering of data can be found here:

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/225596-conflict-article/?p=2324986

 

Essentially, when you look at business-related metrics, typically, stakeholders make decisions based around player-centric data.  While Ly's product release analysis is good, it's arguably the two weakest metrics when it comes to the longevity of the game itself, mainly because it does nothing to address consumer logic and/or offer a reasoning to supply and demand.

 

A word to the wise:  When looking at data, please do it subjectively and emotion-free.  We all love the game, but it's important to look at it both glass half-full and half-empty.  As for Ly's proverbial dropping the mic, well, now both arguments are in one thread for those curious so they can be the judge

Edited July 28, 2016 by HERO

[AverageBoss 233]

Armada is throwing a huge monkey wrench in your diagram because Wave 3 and Wave 4 are REALLY kinda the same wave, so it really messes with the data.  it makes it seem like they've released two entire waves within 24 hours of each other, which we all know isn't actually true. 

 

  What is ALSO throwing off the data is X-Wing's supplemental releases.   Inbetween waves we had Aces packs, Huge Ship packs, veterans packs, and lately even fluff products like dial upgrade kits and colored bases.   So it keeps the game feeling more fresh when there is SOMETHING new on the shelf every other month.  (more or less). 

 

Also, I noticed you have a product total of "7" on Armada's Wave 1.  I assume you are counting the Dice pack and Maneuver template with that?   Because those came out at different times IIRC, yet you don't seem to include X-Wing's dice pack, which came out shortly after the base game released (Not sure the exact date).   Also not includeing all the other X-Wing releases that came out prior to wave 4, such as Imperial Aces, and Huge Ships.  (I believe we had 2 huge ships for X-Wing out by that time, but I might be slightly off). 

 

  Still, good effort.   Pretty cool analysis.   I wonder if it'll pan out far different in the future, due to asmodee changing things up. 

Corvette

Neubulon

Assault Frigate

Gladiator

Victory

Rebel Fighter

Imp Fighter

So he is right on there being 7 releases. Though I too feel that the side releases should be included.

Just because the Aces packs contained "fixes" for certain craft, does not change the fact that they were still new product on the shelf that affected more than just the ships within. Add in the huge ships and the Epic Play format that were introduced at the time as well.

[Baltanok 558]

I noticed you have a product total of "7" on Armada's Wave 1.

I believe that's:

CR90, Neb, VSD, AFM, GSD, Rebel fighters, Imperial fighters.

[Lyraeus 4,759]

Lyareus, you might also want to add Imperial Assault to the comparison, since it has a very narrative aspect that we might start seeing with Armada

I thought about that but Imperial Assault uses FFG's Living Card Game release model. This means that they do wave series that get released in trickles, I believe 1 pack a month or something like that. Though I have not updated that opinion/observation recently so it could be changed.

[Lyraeus 4,759]

Armada is throwing a huge monkey wrench in your diagram because Wave 3 and Wave 4 are REALLY kinda the same wave, so it really messes with the data.  it makes it seem like they've released two entire waves within 24 hours of each other, which we all know isn't actually true. 

 

  What is ALSO throwing off the data is X-Wing's supplemental releases.   Inbetween waves we had Aces packs, Huge Ship packs, veterans packs, and lately even fluff products like dial upgrade kits and colored bases.   So it keeps the game feeling more fresh when there is SOMETHING new on the shelf every other month.  (more or less). 

 

Also, I noticed you have a product total of "7" on Armada's Wave 1.  I assume you are counting the Dice pack and Maneuver template with that?   Because those came out at different times IIRC, yet you don't seem to include X-Wing's dice pack, which came out shortly after the base game released (Not sure the exact date).   Also not includeing all the other X-Wing releases that came out prior to wave 4, such as Imperial Aces, and Huge Ships.  (I believe we had 2 huge ships for X-Wing out by that time, but I might be slightly off). 

 

  Still, good effort.   Pretty cool analysis.   I wonder if it'll pan out far different in the future, due to asmodee changing things up. 

We assume that they are the same wave,  and while it's true that they were designed together (FFG has stated in other games and even in Armada that they work on 2 waves ahead) they could of been built to be seperate releases. This is what I believe anyway since it seems FFG is trying to keep an equal number of Wave releases about every 4 waves (we won't know for sure till wave 8 is announced) 

 

As I stated in one of my first posts, I did not add the X-Wing Supplementals because those were stop gap measures by the X-Wing team to fix ships that just did not work such as the TIE Advanced and Defender. A comparison of that would require that I compare our supplemental products, which he have had none yet due to everything working. 

 

Armada Wave 1 was the VSD, GSD, Assault Frigate, Nebulon-B, CR90, Rebel Squadron Pack, and Imperial Squadron Pack. 7 products in all. Each had unique cards to the expansion or was a new ship which allowse to classify it as a new product. If we take out the ships that are duplicate from the core X-Wing will only have 2 releases and Armada would have 4