Jump to content
Absol197

Trends, Statistics, and Predictions!

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Otakuon said:

It will be interesting to see where SWRPG will head now that the final career book has been announced.  I am surprised that the AoR and FaD did not get additional general sourcebooks like EotE did (Suns of Fortune and Lords of Nal Hutta).  

Where do Nexus of Power and Strongholds of Rebellion fit?  Not regions per se, but meta-regions at least.  So there's that.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Absol197 said:

Here’s the thing: FFG’s previous new Star Wars product, Destiny, did not really go over well, as far as I can tell.  Now, obviously, my information is limited, but at least in my area, Destiny just doesn’t sell.  My FLGS is the largest in our area, and has the widest selection of just about everything.  As an example, the owner recently told me that, in general, he orders about 25-30 of any new Star Wars RPG book that comes out; the next biggest FLGS in the area is probably ordering about 5, at most.  That’s the scale difference here.

Destiny sold really well, too well in fact. The one significant problem they had was that pre-orders weren't huge, but then the demand on release was massive, leading to shortages. So if anything the biggest issue has been a lack of supply, obviously that can lead to people dropping out if they can't get enough boosters, but there are dozens of stores that have sold through every release and then been out of stock for weeks before they can get a resupply - albeit with the limited release run of each new set, that feeds back to that possibility of people quitting if they can't get what they want.
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Absol197 said:

As I said, my initial prediction is for late July, but I have precious little to go on for that.  There is one important thing to note though: when Unlimited Power was announced on September 22, the announcement article gave a Q2 2018 release.  But as you mentioned, the announcement for Knights of Fate gave a Q2 2018 release, as well.  We can think of this as FFG doing a little bit of talking to us.

Yeah I was dealing more in the realm of realistic minimums. The initial date you postulated puts the book in early Q3, which is realistic, and yet disappointing at the same time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, HappyDaze said:

If you look at Dark Heresy 2, you can see that FFG has experience in how not to make a second edition be successful in the face of an expiring license.

What indicators were there that DH2 was a flop?  The core book was in DriveThruRPG's top 5 best sellers for well over a year after it was released. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, themensch said:

That's my fear, too.  Oh, how many ill-fated RPG lines that had grandiose plans and adoring fans, only to lose funding and close up before they could finish the source material.  Heartbreaking, really.  

Case in point:  Paladium Books has lost the Robotech licence, and cancels the Robotech RPG Tactics Kickstarter, which is 5 years overdue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, this weeks update has come and gone, and not only have we not seen a RPG book move to Shipping Now, but we haven't seen ANY product change for a release on March 15.  So that's two weeks in a row, March 8 and March 15, with no expected new releases.  That, to me, solidifies my stance that FFG is putting most everything on pause until Legion releases.  Then we'll start seeing things moving again.

My best guess (for what it's worth) is that we'll see Fully Operational start shipping on March 29, for a release on April 12.

Edited by Absol197

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posts?  As in news articles?  No, I haven't.  I could troll through the archives and find it all, but I'd rather not.

If you mean social media posts, then definitely no: I don't use social media, so I have no way of locating them.  You're welcome to take up the burden in my stead :P !  If you can get the data, I can finangle the numbers.

Edited by Absol197

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Absol197 said:

Posts?  As in news articles?  No, I haven't.  I could troll through the archives and find it all, but I'd rather not.

If you mean social media posts, then definitely no: I don't use social media, so I have no way of locating them.  You're welcome to take up the burden in my stead :P !  If you can get the data, I can finangle the numbers.

Yeah, I was hoping to see a count of how they're marketing the lines, it might provide insight into their priorities.  I don't think I'll be taking on that task though :)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

Okay, this weeks update has come and gone, and not only have we not seen a RPG book move to Shipping Now, but we haven't seen ANY product change for a release on March 15.  So that's two weeks in a row, March 8 and March 15, with no expected new releases.  That, to me, solidifies my stance that FFG is putting most everything on pause until Legion releases.  Then we'll start seeing things moving again.

My best guess (for what it's worth) is that we'll see Fully Operational start shipping on March 29, for a release on April 12.

Ironically, in the UK, DOR is likely to release on the same day as Legion now (as Legion is expected for the same date, and order amounts have been locked in by stores already).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, themensch said:

Where do Nexus of Power and Strongholds of Rebellion fit?  Not regions per se, but meta-regions at least.  So there's that.  

Well, that is what I was referring to.  FaD and AoR got one each, while EotE has two by now.  Seems like if there is to be parity across the three lines, then FaD and AoR are due another general sourcebook.  Also, EotE has three pre-made adventure books while AoR and FaD have two.  So again, assuming there is to be equal footing, we should see at least one more pre-made adventure book each for AoR and FaD.  Actually, I would love to see FFG continue to publish additional pre-made adventures for all three lines.  They are always handy to have if you don't have the time to write your own full-fledged adventure.

Edited by Otakuon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I posted this in a thread on the Force and Destiny forum, but based on a recent spate of e-mails received from distributors with regard to pre-orders reported on the forum, I have new predictions for the current books:

Fully Operational - Mid May 2018;
Cyphers and Masks - Mid August, 2018;
Unlimited Power - Mid November, 2018;
Knights of Fate - Mid February, 2019.

Thanks folks.  If this starts panning out, I may just retire this thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

True, but we don't actually KNOW that the books were printed; we only know that the Upcoming page SAID they were printed.  They may not actually have stock sitting in storage.

As I recall, there's something in the Star Wars license that requires one release per quarter, yes?  Well, if FFG is running out of new books to produce now that the final career books have been announced, and they need to fill the "one release per quarter" quota in order to keep the license for more lucrative products like X-Wing and Legion until at least 2021...

Edited by Absol197

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/23/2018 at 10:09 AM, Darzil said:

I do not like this:

"Regarding your recent order reference *********** , we regret to inform you that we have been notified by the distributor that 'FFGSWA47 - Age of Rebellion: Fully Operational' has an amended release date.

The updated release date from the suppliers is 29/06/2018"

Hopefully it just means that they don't know, and it could take months to hit the UK and be available elsewhere well before this.

 

6 hours ago, Random Bystander said:

Just had an email from my UK distributor saying they now have a release date of December.....

 

23 hours ago, Rithuan said:

Hi, I just noticed that (trying to find if Dawn of Rebellion is available on Amazon), Star Wars 30th Anniversary Edition will be released on 30th March 2018.

Maybe in our hands, a week before as Absol predicts. Let's hope!

https://www.amazon.com/Star-Wars-Roleplaying-Game-Anniversary/dp/163344323X/ref=sr_1_86?ie=UTF8&qid=1519846115&sr=8-86&keywords=Fantasy+Flight+Games

 

We've had a rash of reports like this in the past week.  Taking into account the Amazon Effect, we had Dawn of Rebellion release in Q1, an email indicating Fully Operational is being aimed for Q2, and one indicating that Unlimited Power is being aimed for Q4?

This is the first actual news we've had in months, from distributors (who probably get more frequent communication from FFG), when previously they were reporting no information.  Seems like the best fit for the data we've got. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope this is more of distributors not knowing release dates and less of FFG trying to spread the releases out super thin.  I think spreading the releases out super thin would be damaging to the brand and storage of books is very expensive if they are telling the truth and saying that the books are on the boat.  Although if they were planning on this I don't understand why they would send the books to the printer long before the release date.  That seems like a waste of money in the long run. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Earl of Madness said:

I hope this is more of distributors not knowing release dates and less of FFG trying to spread the releases out super thin.  I think spreading the releases out super thin would be damaging to the brand and storage of books is very expensive if they are telling the truth and saying that the books are on the boat.  Although if they were planning on this I don't understand why they would send the books to the printer long before the release date.  That seems like a waste of money in the long run. 

It would be, but remember we don't know that the books were actually printed and boated.  They may simply have changed the status because they knew we were antsy for updates and they wanted to appear like they were doing something. 

I hope I'm wrong.  I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong.  But it's the most current information we have, and in fact the only information we have.  And although it's not directly from FFG, it is from a source that would communicate with them more then they do with us.  As a statistician, I have to build my predictions based on the best data available, and this is what that data is telling me :( .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It isn't very smart for them to alienate their rpg customer base like this. We are fanatics but even fanatics give up eventually... or die from zealousness.

Seriously though I will not be buying any ffg products any time soon. LOL. Not like I have a choice atm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

True, but we don't actually KNOW that the books were printed; we only know that the Upcoming page SAID they were printed.  They may not actually have stock sitting in storage.

As I recall, there's something in the Star Wars license that requires one release per quarter, yes?  Well, if FFG is running out of new books to produce now that the final career books have been announced, and they need to fill the "one release per quarter" quota in order to keep the license for more lucrative products like X-Wing and Legion until at least 2021...

Listening to the Pirate they are still working on stuff so I would say no they have not run out of stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems Disingenuous and a way to kill hype before a book releases though. To show movement beyond the development phase and then stall if for a year.  The In Development status sorta tells people that release isn't happening any time soon.  Putting them on the boat is a message to people that the books are moving forward and you can expect them sometime in the next 2-6 months.  It would be more reasonable to temper the expectations of your customers and keep the book in development if it really hasn't been sent to the printer yet. You are right they may have not printed the books yet but an update to a more imminent release date and then not doing anything is pointless and all it does is kill hype they want to generate and a way to mislead your customers and build bad PR. 

You are also right that the only information we have is the information from these distributors but i'm not inclined to trust these words, first off most of them are UK release dates and those are probably less reliable since there is a middle man involved there. 

This situation smells fishy to me. It smells like people not knowing when these books are supposed to drop and making things up to give answers to an antsy customer base.  Should this be corroborated with far more messages indicating the same dates then i'd be inclined to believe those messages but we have 3 different dates on 3 different books. those data points mean nothing and those error bars are far too large. 

Please note i'm not calling you a liar, you are working with the best information you have.  However i'd definitely take those reports with a grain of salt personally they are completely out of left field and go against prior trends in a big way.  Granted Ghosts of Dathomir had a long Development period for extraneous circumstances and so has FO but Dawn had a fairly standard development time of a little of 6 months. They projected Q4 and it released early Q1 not too different I think. I don't doubt they are staggering releases but staggers of 3 months after announcing knights of Fate for Q2 this year and then delaying to Q1 after dawn had so few issues seems a bit strange to me.  We will need to See what FO does though before we can make any solid conclusions.  

I think the best conclusion we can come to is we don't know and we won't know until FO drops.  I certainly hope those FO people get their book soon then. Also having the WEG star wars release march makes sense but I don't see it as competition with the current line and more for old fans of a different SWRPG and i don't think many of us here play both or want to play both, though i'm sure there is some overlap.  However because of that i'm not sure it should be used as a data point.  

Still love the work you do absol! I may be skeptical of your conclusions but your track record is better than mine i'm just offering conjecture about what might be going on and why the current situation seems fishy. 

Edited by Earl of Madness

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...