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Absol197

Trends, Statistics, and Predictions!

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3 hours ago, Absol197 said:

...I think FFG is on to me, guys...

NOBODY expects the Imperial  Inquisition! Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency.... Our three weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Emperor.... Our four...no... Amongst our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, surprise.... I'll come in again.

Edit: Of course a Monty Python Spoof would be my 1000th post.

Edited by Shlambate

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still waiting for my local shop to get the book. :(   I bug them everyday and they seem to be experiencing a great deal of frustration with the supplier.  

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On 10/23/2017 at 6:46 PM, Absol197 said:

Sure can! 

Fully Operational: No Upcoming changes; 

Cyphers and Masks: No Upcoming changes; 

Dawn of Rebellion:  No Upcoming changes; 

Unlimited Power:  No Upcoming changes. 

 

Nothing's changed the entire time :P .

If you mean when products in general change, there's usually a mass update of products every week on Wednesday and/or Thursday (although there wasn't one last week).  But since it's a regular occurrence, there's little to be gleaned from that. 

No i mean is there a relationship between when they changes status and when they posted an article... like say book goes in to printing and a news article is posted...

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4 hours ago, zsavk said:

still waiting for my local shop to get the book. :(   I bug them everyday and they seem to be experiencing a great deal of frustration with the supplier.  

Yup. My flgs has been having the same problem. Their order from early Oct (which should have included ghosts by their count) didn't show up for 3 weeks (normally a 1 week turnaround) and didn't include ghosts or anything new  other than  a few restocks. they've subsequently told me that they may not get it for another 3 to 4 weeks at this rate.

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19 minutes ago, Daeglan said:

No i mean is there a relationship between when they changes status and when they posted an article... like say book goes in to printing and a news article is posted...

That's what I did.  All of the books listed in that chart are still In Development  They have not gone to the printer.  ForFully Operational and Cyphers and Masks, all three articles came out, and the status has not changed at all. 

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7 minutes ago, warchild1x said:

Yup. My flgs has been having the same problem. Their order from early Oct (which should have included ghosts by their count) didn't show up for 3 weeks (normally a 1 week turnaround) and didn't include ghosts or anything new  other than  a few restocks. they've subsequently told me that they may not get it for another 3 to 4 weeks at this rate.

I feel your pain.  Really disappointed.  Especially since I have been very proactive with my FLGS and making sure they know what I want.  

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16 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

That's what I did.  All of the books listed in that chart are still In Development  They have not gone to the printer.  ForFully Operational and Cyphers and Masks, all three articles came out, and the status has not changed at all. 

Was there.a relationship in the past?

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13 hours ago, Daeglan said:

Was there.a relationship in the past?

My apologies; I realized about five minutes after I posted that you might have meant when the articles were posting in relation to when typical books would have changed status.  Unfortunately I was already driving by then, and I don't calculate and drive ;) .

to the quoted question: no, there was no correlation in the past.  However, in the past, they did not have this precise three-article formula that they have developed starting with Fully Operational.  It's possible the three-article trend may have started with Disciples of Harmony, but it was something I considered when I began tracking data and then discarded because there was no pattern between timing or even number of pre-view articles.

However, at some point they changed (as they tend to do) to this new three-article method, and I didn't notice in time, so...mark against me.  Darn!

But looking into whether there's a correlation between when standard books would have changed, we can see:

Article 1 (In Development to At the Printer)

Time In Development is the most variable, so it's hard to define a trend.  The shortest time has been 14 days (Friends Like These), the longest was Ghosts at 73, mean time of ~39.14.  However, because none of the given article timeframes are outside of this, we could say it's at least possible it was meant to line up.

 

Article 2 (At the Printer to On the Boat)

Printing is a fairly consistent timeframe.  The shortest time was 21 days (No Disintegrations), and the mean is ~34.14, just about five weeks.  Maximum time, again, is Ghosts at 74 days.  However, since the Article 1-2 time for all upcoming books are currently 14 days, it becomes highly unlikely this is indicative of an actual (unmarked) change.

 

Article 3 (On the Boat to Shipping Now)

Boating has also been fairly consistent, with most books being right around six weeks.  Shortest time was 40 days, longest (excluding Ghosts, for obvious reasons) was No Disintegrations at 71 days, mean time is ~46.88 days (once again, minus Ghosts).  The longest timeframe between articles we have is a little less than five weeks, and the other timeframe is only 2 weeks.  Also unlikely to be related.

Edited by Absol197

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40 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

My apologies; I realized about five minutes after I posted that you might have meant when the articles were posting in relation to when typical books would have changed status.  Unfortunately I was already driving by then, and I don't calculate and drive ;) .

to the quoted question: no, there was no correlation in the past.  However, in the past, they did not have this precise three-article formula that they have developed starting with Fully Operational.  It's possible the three-article trend may have started with Disciples of Harmony, but it was something I considered when I began tracking data and then discarded because there was no pattern between timing or even number of pre-view articles.

However, at some point they changed (as they tend to do) to this new three-article method, and I didn't notice in time, so...mark against me.  Darn!

But looking into whether there's a correlation between when standard books would have changed, we can see:

Article 1 (In Development to At the Printer)

Time In Development is the most variable, so it's hard to define a trend.  The shortest time has been 14 days, the longest was Ghosts at 74.  However, because none of the given article timeframes are outside of this, we could say it's at least possible it was meant to line up.

 

Article 2 (At the Printer to On the Boat)

Printing is a fairly consistent timeframe.  The shortest time was 21 days, most books are at five weeks.  However, since the Article 1-2 time for all upcoming books are currently 14 days, it become highly unlikely this is indicative of an actual (unmarked) change.

 

Article 3 (On the Boat to Shipping Now)

Boating has also been fairly consistent, with most books being right around six weeks.  The longest timeframe between articles we have is a little less than five, and the other timeframe is only 2 weeks.  Also unlikely to be related.

Ahhh thanks. That is what i thought. 

So if we look at the articles we can Probably see when things were intended to shift. But i think they have not been doing the changes to the other books due to the shipping issues. So i suspect these books will go straight to shopping now.

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Just now, Daeglan said:

Ghosts went stright to shipping now without going back to printing on the boat etc.

True.  But there are two things we've never seen: a book going backwards along the production track, and a book skipping steps on the production track.

Ghosts not going back to the Printer, then, makes sense.  The other books jumping straight to Shipping Now would not.

Of course, I obviously don't have all the data, and there very definitely are factors I'm not privy to, but from what we do have, that's what I see as the most likely route forward.

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Just now, Absol197 said:

True.  But there are two things we've never seen: a book going backwards along the production track, and a book skipping steps on the production track.

Ghosts not going back to the Printer, then, makes sense.  The other books jumping straight to Shipping Now would not.

Of course, I obviously don't have all the data, and there very definitely are factors I'm not privy to, but from what we do have, that's what I see as the most likely route forward.

I suspect when ghosts finished printing the next on the list went to print.  I know you have that info too. :)

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I request a presence with the Oracle!!!

 

@Absol197... Has there ever been an instance of a book... disappearing?

 

Like Savage Spirits being with Ghosts all throughout printing/on the boat, then disappearing when Ghosts started shipping. Not to reappear, not even as an "awaiting reprint", but clearly(??) not making it to the stores (though I haven't been able to get to my FLGS, Miniature Market has Ghosts but not Spirits, and the amazon price is around $100)

 

Are the Savage Spirits truly the "Ghosts" of Dathomir?!?!?!

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Hmm, I don't think it disappeared, though?  It's showing as in stock on the Products page, and my FLGS got some in the week before Ghosts was released.  I can even recall Savage Spirits transitioning to In Stores Now while Ghosts remained Shipping Now, back on the 12th.

So...I'm not sure.  Maybe the Amazon price just hasn't adjusted yet?  It was unavailable for so long, maybe it'll just take a bit for it to change?

Edited by Absol197

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A quick trip to my FLGS shows that it is, in fact, in stock. Most of my FLGS are a bit out of the way, so I was discouraged when MM, CoolStuffInc, and Amazon seemed to show that it disappeared, and hadn't made the trip yet.

So the sky isn't falling, there is no mystery, and there's nothing to see here, other than my dazzling display of ignorance.

Move along, move along!

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2 hours ago, oneeyedmatt87 said:

A quick trip to my FLGS shows that it is, in fact, in stock. Most of my FLGS are a bit out of the way, so I was discouraged when MM, CoolStuffInc, and Amazon seemed to show that it disappeared, and hadn't made the trip yet.

So the sky isn't falling, there is no mystery, and there's nothing to see here, other than my dazzling display of ignorance.

Move along, move along!

Most likely FLGS got it first. Others drew the short straw

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Okay everyone, I have a theory.  A FILM GAMEN RPG THEORY!  Thanks for reading!

So, there are currently seven Star Wars RPG items At the Printer, including 1 Core Book, 3 supplements, 2 Game Master's Kits, and 1 Beginner Game.  That's a lot.  But there's also Genesys, which went to the printer on September 21.

Now Genesys is a massive project.  It's also a new release, a new system, and unlike a re-print run, anyone wanting to get into Genesys will need to buy into this current one, meaning it's going to be a much larger print run than normal, for a larger than normal book.

My theory is that as soon as Genesys goes On the Boat, we'll see some of our currently stalled items move forward.  It's probably taking up too much of the printer space right now, seeing as it's a core book that's got to be going for a massive print run to get the new product off the ground.  But the question is: can we predict when Genesys will be moving forward?

We can sure try!

Okay, so let's assume that this is going to be reasonably similar to a general core book's production time.  We have three of those to compare to: the Edge and Force core books both took 171 days for the entire process, while the Age core book took 148 days.  Unfortunately, as I wasn't playing this system at that time, I wasn't tracking exactly when each core book moved from one stage to the next, but we can extrapolate a little.

Boating time has remained fairly constant at around six weeks (excepting certain specific circumstances), and when it varied because of problems, the entire book's production time usually sees an increase.  So since the production time of the core books is within a normal timeframe, we can assume that there weren't any real delays.  Using the average time On the Boat and Shipping Now of 46.88 + 15.91 = 62.79 days, we can subtract that from 171 to get 108.21 days for Printing and Development.  Why 171?  Well, that's the upper limit we have on Core books, two of them share that production time, and one of the ones that does, the Edge Core, was also developed alongside the custom dice for the game, which is what's happening with Genesys, too.

So what proportion of our 108.21 days is Printing, and what proportion is development?  Well, I wasn't sure how to split it up, because development time is so variable.  So, I did what any enterprising statistician would do: dive for more data!  I used the search function here on the forums to find when during 2013 people were talking about Edge Core moving to different stages of development, and I was able to find some dates!  It appears that Edge was At the Printer from February 8 through May 9, a range of 90 days, or just under 13 weeks (12.86 weeks).

If we assume that Genesys will be a similar amount of time...well, seeing as it went to the printer on September 21, so 12.86 weeks later is December 20.  So...no time soon.

*Sigh*  I was hoping this theory would turn out better for us than it did.  Hopefully we don't have to wait that long for more movement on the Star Wars-y goodness :( .

But anyway, that's just a theory.  A...you know what?  No.  It's just a theory.

 

As an aside though, I am considering using the search function to dig up data on the development times of the other books I've missed, although I have concerns about using those dates in my data, and have marks the EotE Core ones in grey because of it.  The primary reason is that I can't be certain of it's accuracy.  USUALLY the community here is good at noticing those changes the day of, but sometimes they don't, so the numbers might be off, which...yeah, makes my teeth grind just a little thinking about it.  But it IS the most accurate data we can get, so...I'm not sure.  Maybe I'll create a separate chart, or just continue to mark those dates in grey so I can easily separate them out if needed.

If you guys want to help, I'd appreciate some assistance diving through the archives!  I need production dates for all of Edge up through Special Modifications, all of Age up through Lead by Example, and Force up through Nexus of Power.  I have some of the dates for those books, but they're incomplete, and I have everything after them.  If you want to help, though, please include a link!  Otherwise I'll have to search it up myself to verify it, because I'm just that crazy :P .

Okay, thanks for reading, as always!

Edited by Absol197

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4 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

Now Genesys is a massive project.  It's also a new release, a new system, and unlike a re-print run, anyone wanting to get into Genesys will need to buy into this current one, meaning it's going to be a much larger print run than normal, for a larger than normal book.

This makes me wonder if there's really only one print facility.  Maybe other facilities have different backlogs.  Surely FFG/Asmodee learned not to put all their eggs in one basket after the Ghost of Dathomir debacle.  Oh hey, my copy arrived today!

 

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My question on Genesys is, what are they going to to produce to support it? Is there going to be a ton of setting supplements providing locations, monsters and NPCs? And what about adventures? It’s really quite intriguing...

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Interesting. One of my flgs added both the WEG 30th anniversary reprint and unlimited power to their online catalog with an ETA of 12/15/17.

Now I'm not putting any store in those dates because it hasn't even gone to the printer yet and is most likely a placeholder date but i find it interesting nonetheless. I wonder if that means they'll jump the line in front of fully operational.

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That was something else I was thinking might be a possibility.  I wasn't paying close attention to the reprints, as I have a strong tendency to look at the new products to the detriment of the others, but I think that the ones that are just books (i.e. not the beginner's games and the GM kits) changed status on or around the day that Ghosts finally went to Shipping Now.

That was on 09/29.  The books give their status change date as early October (10/04 and 10/06), but those dates are not always 100% accurate.  Either way, it was around the same time.  By my current data the average print time is 34.14 days, or almost exactly five weeks, that would put the change at late this week or early next week.

Soo...maybe soon?  Hopefully?

Edited by Absol197

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