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Absol197

Trends, Statistics, and Predictions!

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1 hour ago, CeilingSquid said:

Holy crap, I really HOPE we can get a shipping notice relatively soon on Rise.

I can further corroborate, the swrpg reddit has photographic proof...it DOES exist!

 

This is so wizard!

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Posted (edited)

Someone on Reddit is reporting that the Specs are:

- Clone Officer

- Clone Pilot

- Clone Trooper

- Jedi Knight

- Padawan

- Force-Sensitive Outcast

- Republic Navy Officer

- Republic Representative

- Scavenger

No other details yet...

 

Edit: Sorry, I got excited. This is probably more appropriate in the RotS thread.

Edited by Dr Lucky
Update

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1 hour ago, CeilingSquid said:

I'm now really curious about what Absol contributed...excited, mind you, but I imagine you can't spill the beans yet!

Nope!  Although I can say there's nothing specifically that's "my contribution."

 

50 minutes ago, Dr Lucky said:

Someone on Reddit is reporting that the Specs are:

- Clone Officer

- Clone Pilot

- Clone Trooper

- Jedi Knight

- Padawan

- Force-Sensitive Outcast

- Republic Navy Officer

- Republic Representative

- Scavenger

No other details yet...

 

Edit: Sorry, I got excited. This is probably more appropriate in the RotS thread.

Yes please!  As excited as I am, let's leave this thread for data and speculation, not book details :) .  Thanks! 

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15 hours ago, EliasWindrider said:

No wizards made the 3 immediately previous editions of the game, before them it was west end games.  This one is made by fantasy flight, it even has their logo on the cover in the picture 😎😁

It must mean that the expression "Wizard!" in this context emphasizes the singular as comparative measure of quality, meaning that "Wizard" would be a fraction of something "Wizards".

Personally, judging from previous products, I'd say this book would be more likely to be along the lines of of at least three coasts worth of wizards in quality.

 

I feel confident that I totally did not overthink this in any way, and am certain that such a pointlessly convoluted and humorless dissection of a joke will not itself be taken as a joke by anyone.

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

Oh really?  That's cool!  Not nearly as long as I feared! 

I'll pencil it in!  Although that's not official to me until the Upcoming page changes 😛 .

You mean like this?

cWL3GBh.jpg

😁

Edited by Nytwyng

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Okay, so!

Final verdict: assuming the May 9 release date is correct (which it appears to be at this time), here's how Rise of the Separatists ended up shaking out.

The total production time was 272 days from announcement to release.  This is in fourth place for longest book, behind Ghosts of Dathomir (370 days), Fully Operational (391 days) and Cyphers and Masks (405 days).  So while it did take a while, it's still not nearly as long as it could have been.  We were nearly 100 days quicker than the bronze-medalist!  And only 9 days longer than the very first "delayed" book, Strongholds of Resistance (253 days).

However, it did get the record for longest time On the Boat, beating out the previous record-holder, Cyphers and Masks by 21 days (230 as compared to 209).  Although it did skip the At the Printer step, so it's possible that step got rolled into its time On the Boat, making it appear to be longer than it actually was.  I do wonder if Rise had spent a month At the Printer before going On the Boat, would people have been slightly more lenient about the delay?  Dunno...

But that has been your statistics for the day!

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1 hour ago, Absol197 said:

Okay, so!

Final verdict: assuming the May 9 release date is correct (which it appears to be at this time), here's how Rise of the Separatists ended up shaking out.

The total production time was 272 days from announcement to release.  This is in fourth place for longest book, behind Ghosts of Dathomir (370 days), Fully Operational (391 days) and Cyphers and Masks (405 days).  So while it did take a while, it's still not nearly as long as it could have been.  We were nearly 100 days quicker than the bronze-medalist!  And only 9 days longer than the very first "delayed" book, Strongholds of Resistance (253 days).

However, it did get the record for longest time On the Boat, beating out the previous record-holder, Cyphers and Masks by 21 days (230 as compared to 209).  Although it did skip the At the Printer step, so it's possible that step got rolled into its time On the Boat, making it appear to be longer than it actually was.  I do wonder if Rise had spent a month At the Printer before going On the Boat, would people have been slightly more lenient about the delay?  Dunno...

But that has been your statistics for the day!

Could you use the other data from old releases to perhaps tease out how that boat time was really spent. IE 2 months to reprint. another 2 months to boat 2 weeks to shipping now...
Maybe we can peice together a time line to better predict outcomes of overstaying the boat....

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10 hours ago, warchild1x said:

Don't know if you caught this or not Absol but on one of the Rise spoiler threads we found out via a Facebook post on FFGs page that Rise will be released May 9th.

But not May the 4th?  Seems like a missed opportunity.

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23 hours ago, Daeglan said:

Could you use the other data from old releases to perhaps tease out how that boat time was really spent. IE 2 months to reprint. another 2 months to boat 2 weeks to shipping now...
Maybe we can piece together a time line to better predict outcomes of overstaying the boat....

I've tried it before, but the numbers rarely work out.  Mostly because the different statuses are a multitude of different things.  For instance, the In Development status not only includes the final steps of prepping the book (most likely), but also getting it queued in line for printing.  Once it's place in the queue is reached, it would then change to At the Printer.  But since In Development is the single most variable status, we can't really separate it out like that.

My best guess, working backwards a bit, is as follows:

Boat arrives, change to Shipping Now: 04/24/2019
Re-print leaves the printer: 03/06/2019
Begin Re-print:  01/30/2019
???
First shipment arrives, need for reprint noted:  11/29/2018
First print finished, move to the boat:  10/11/2018
Move to the printer, change to On the Boat: 09/06/2018
Book announced, change to In Development: 08/10/2018

That's using VERY rough numbers for how long things take.  If this is anywhere close to right, we can guess that, once the need for a re-print was noticed, it took about two months for FFG to work out getting another print run going.  But that requires several things: 1) the At the Printer step was actually rolled into the initial change to On the Boat; 2)  The first boat took an average amount of time to arrive; 3) FFG didn't get samples ahead of time and was able to start the negotiation for a re-print sooner.  If any of those assumptions are wrong, then it took longer than two months (maybe shorter, but probably longer).

The other issue is that we can't use this to "guess forward."  If it took two months to get a reprint started in this instance, it may not do so the next time.  This is because how long it takes to get that started would depend on how many other projects the printer has queued up, and those projects' relative size.

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1 hour ago, Absol197 said:

I've tried it before, but the numbers rarely work out.  Mostly because the different statuses are a multitude of different things.  For instance, the In Development status not only includes the final steps of prepping the book (most likely), but also getting it queued in line for printing.  Once it's place in the queue is reached, it would then change to At the Printer.  But since In Development is the single most variable status, we can't really separate it out like that.

My best guess, working backwards a bit, is as follows:

Boat arrives, change to Shipping Now: 04/24/2019
Re-print leaves the printer: 03/06/2019
Begin Re-print:  01/30/2019
???
First shipment arrives, need for reprint noted:  11/29/2018
First print finished, move to the boat:  10/11/2018
Move to the printer, change to On the Boat: 09/06/2018
Book announced, change to In Development: 08/10/2018

That's using VERY rough numbers for how long things take.  If this is anywhere close to right, we can guess that, once the need for a re-print was noticed, it took about two months for FFG to work out getting another print run going.  But that requires several things: 1) the At the Printer step was actually rolled into the initial change to On the Boat; 2)  The first boat took an average amount of time to arrive; 3) FFG didn't get samples ahead of time and was able to start the negotiation for a re-print sooner.  If any of those assumptions are wrong, then it took longer than two months (maybe shorter, but probably longer).

The other issue is that we can't use this to "guess forward."  If it took two months to get a reprint started in this instance, it may not do so the next time.  This is because how long it takes to get that started would depend on how many other projects the printer has queued up, and those projects' relative size.

No. But i think you can use it to get a feel for what stage you are in once you know things went to ****. IE if after 10 weeks the book never went to shipping now you can use these numbers to give you a possible new shipping now range. Which seems to work out to a 4 month delay or so...

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1 hour ago, damnkid3 said:

If it is going to come in August then they better get another one in development  so we don't have to go too long between then next books.

Likely when CoR drops they will make an announcement

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