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Absol197

Trends, Statistics, and Predictions!

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On 3/9/2019 at 10:02 AM, Donovan Morningfire said:

the last major kerfluffle that I can recall is the whole cross-media event for The Force Unleashed being fumbled due to LucasArts not being able to get the game finished on schedule, causing the bulk of tie-in products to be delayed to avoid spoilers of the game; the only product that was released in the originally planned time frame was WotC's set of collectible minis expansion for TFU simply due to them not being able much less willing to pay the storage costs for the several months it would take for LucasArts to get the game finished.

I also seem to recall that Shadows of the Empire caused a bottleneck too. I don't remember what facet of the project was the holdup (I want to say the N64 game - but don't quote me on that), but one cog in the machine stripped a tooth and the whole pipeline went askew.

Mind you, I just turned 50, so this memory might just be Alzheimers setting in, so take it with several grains of salt.

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On 3/12/2019 at 6:51 PM, warchild1x said:

Since you're back to prognosticating again Absol, care to throw the dart of fate and give us a speculative date on the other two books in the pipeline?

I can certainly try!  But due to existing delays I can't guarantee any degree of accuracy :) .

Also, I was entirely convinced I was not going to get the Allies book... until I saw that it has ewok stats, that is! 

Give me a little bit, and I'll see what numbers come up...

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10 hours ago, Yaccarus said:

Mid June for RotS, Late September for A&A, they try to release an as of yet announced book before Christmas, but it ends up taking until February 2020, and CotR ends up getting released in May 2020.

I doubt RotS is that far out. Even with a reprint. 

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Posted (edited)

Gosh... looking back, we're approaching three whole years of this thread existing!  I almost can't believe it!  I'm glad everyone found my haphazard attempts to predict releases as useful and entertaining as they did :) .

Also, status update, I should have an initial prediction for the two newest books up this afternoon!  With the usual caveats that recent changes in production timing makes those estimates looser than previously. 

 

EDIT:  Sorry folks, things came up at work, we'll have to wait until early next week before I can run the numbers. 

Edited by Absol197

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11 hours ago, Absol197 said:

Gosh... looking back, we're approaching three whole years of this thread existing!  I almost can't believe it!  I'm glad everyone found my haphazard attempts to predict releases as useful and entertaining as they did :) .

Also, status update, I should have an initial prediction for the two newest books up this afternoon!  With the usual caveats that recent changes in production timing makes those estimates looser than previously. 

 

EDIT:  Sorry folks, things came up at work, we'll have to wait until early next week before I can run the numbers. 

Just ask a sith to get you into the office on the weekend...

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Okay folks, sorry for the delay!

So, initial predictions.  Using my standard method that I've used since the beginning (which uses the average total time for books in a series [EotE, AoR, F&D, SWR], the average time for a type of book [Core, Career, Adventure, Region, Era], and the average time for ALL books), I would put Allies & Adversaries with an initial estimated date of August 1, and Collapse of the Republic with an initial date of September 26.

Using my second method, average times for the stages of development, actually gets me close enough to those dates that when rounding to the nearest Thursday we see no difference.

However, if I limit that second method only to the past five releases... well... we get A&A with an estimated date of October 17, and CotR with a date of December 12.

I'm going to be positive and assume that we're going to get the August/September dates, but... you know.  Gotta put that more realistic date out there, too.

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2 hours ago, salamar_dree said:

@Absol197

A friend told me that someone who pre-ordered Rise of the Separatists posted on Reddit that they received a notification that it was delayed until the end of June...

https://www.reddit.com/r/swrpg/comments/b6xjcl/rise_of_the_separatists_delayed_again/

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Posted (edited)

Wait, it skipped the Printer too?  Hang on...

 

It did.  I am so confused right now, girls and guys.  Is this a new trend?  Is the printing time being folded into either the In Development or On the Boat statuses?  Why would they do that when they've got a perfectly good status they can use to be more precise? 

Edited by Absol197

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