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Absol197

Trends, Statistics, and Predictions!

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Hello there, everyone!

As some of you may know, I'm a big fan of statistics and analysis; I've shown up in random threads and dumped numbers on people, letting them know of likely outcomes regarding release dates, trends, and so forth.

The response has been fairly good - it appears more people than just me enjoy rummaging through numbers and finding patterns and meaning, so I thought that instead of having everything spread out in disparate threads, I'd open up a new thread explicitly for it!

Any questions that you have about the statistical trends of the release schedules, feel free to ask, and I'll do my best to answer! And if there are any interesting patterns that you've noticed in the data you track, stop on by and let us know!

Numbers are fun!

~Phee~

CURRENT BOOK PREDICTIONS:

 

Cyphers and Masks (On the Boat): Predicted Release 07/26/2018
So, now that my end-of-the-month trend has been busted, I have much less to go on.  However!  If we get all the way into August without this book being released, we will have a new leader for the development-time trophy, so I'm putting this just short of that.

Knights of Fate (Shipping Now): Confirmed Release 06/21/2018
Well then... one day after I make my new predictions, this happens!  So... yay!  Warriors!

PRODUCT CODES:

 

EDGE OF THE EMPIRE

 

SWE01-Edge of the Empire Beginner Game
SWE02-Edge of the Empire Core Rulebook
SWE03-Edge of the Empire Game Master's Kit
SWE04-Star Wars Roleplaying Dice
SWE05-Beyond the Rim
SWE06-Enter the Unknown
SWE07-Suns of Fortune
SWE08-Dangerous Covenants
SWE09-The Jewel of Yavin
SWE10-Far Horizons
SWE11-Lords of Nal Hutta
SWE12-Fly Casual
SWE13-Mask of the Pirate Queen
SWE14-Special Modifications
SWE15-
SWE16-No Disintegrations
SWE17-
SWE18-
SWE19-
SWE20-Fringer Specialization Deck
SWE21-Trader Specialization Deck
SWE22-Scout Specialization Deck
SWE23-Mercenary Soldier Specialization Deck
SWE24-Marauder Specialization Deck
SWE25-Bodyguard Specialization Deck
SWE26-Doctor Specialization Deck
SWE27-Politico Specialization Deck
SWE28-Scholar Specialization Deck
SWE29-Scoundrel Specialization Deck
SWE30-Thief Specialization Deck
SWE31-Pilot Specialization Deck
SWE32-Mechanic Specialization Deck
SWE33-Outlaw Tech Specialization Deck
SWE34-Slicer Specialization Deck
SWE35-Assassin Specialization Deck
SWE36-Gadgeteer Specialization Deck
SWE37-Survivalist Specialization Deck
SWE38-Force-Sensitive Exile Specialization Deck
SWE39-Archaeologist Specialization Deck
SWE40-Big Game Hunter Specialization Deck
SWE41-Driver Specialization Deck
SWE42-Explorer Signature Abilities Deck
SWE43-Enforcer Specialization Deck
SWE44-Demolitionist Specialization Deck
SWE45-Heavy Specialization Deck
SWE46-Hired Gun Signature Abilities Deck
SWE47-Entrepreneur Specialization Deck
SWE48-Marshal Specialization Deck
SWE49-Performer Specialization Deck
SWE50-Colonist Signature Abilities Deck
SWE51-Gambler Specialization Deck
SWE52-Gunslinger Specialization Deck
SWE53-Charmer Specialization Deck
SWE54-Smuggler Signature Abilities Deck
SWE55-Cyber Tech Specialization Deck
SWE56-Droid Tech Specialization Deck
SWE57-Modder Specialization Deck
SWE58-Technician Signature Abilities Deck
SWE59-Skip Tracer Specialization Deck
SWE60-Martial Artist Specialization Deck
SWE61-Operator Specialization Deck
SWE62-Bounty Hunter Signature Abilities Deck

AGE OF REBELLION

 

SWA01-Age of Rebellion Beginner Game
SWA02-Age of Rebellion Core Rulebook
SWA03-Age of Rebellion Game Master's Kit
SWA04-Onslaught at Arda I
SWA05-Recruit Specialization Deck
SWA06-Driver Specialization Deck
SWA07-Gunner Specialization Deck
SWA08-Pilot Specialization Deck
SWA09-Commodore Specialization Deck
SWA10-Squadron Leader Specialization Deck
SWA11-Tactician Specialization Deck
SWA12-Saboteur Specialization Deck
SWA13-Ambassador Specialization Deck
SWA14-Agitator Specialization Deck
SWA15-Quartermaster Specialization Deck
SWA16-Mechanic Specialization Deck
SWA17-Scientist Specialization Deck
SWA18-Medic Specialization Deck
SWA19-Sharpshooter Specialization Deck
SWA20-Commando Specialization Deck
SWA21-Scout Specialization Deck
SWA22-Slicer Specialization Deck
SWA23-Infiltrator Specialization Deck
SWA24-Force-Sensitive Emergent Specialization Deck
SWA25-Stay on Target
SWA26-Beast Rider Specialization Deck
SWA27-Hotshot Specialization Deck
SWA28-Rigger Specialization Deck
SWA29-Ace Signature Abilities Deck
SWA30-Strongholds of Resistance
SWA31-Desperate Allies
SWA32-Analyst Specialization Deck
SWA33-Advocate Specialization Deck
SWA34-Propagandist Specialization Deck
SWA35-Diplomat Signature Abilities Deck
SWA36-Lead by Example
SWA37-Instructor Specialization Deck
SWA38-Figurehead Specialization Deck
SWA39-Strategist Specialization Deck
SWA40-Commander Signature Abilities Deck
SWA41-Friends Like These
SWA42-Forged in Battle
SWA43-Trailblazer Specialization Deck
SWA44-Heavy Specialization Deck
SWA45-Vanguard Specialization Deck
SWA46-Soldier Signature Abilities Deck
SWA47-Fully Operational
SWA48-
SWA49-
SWA50-
SWA51-
SWA52-
SWA53-Cyphers and Masks
SWA54-
SWA55-
SWA56-
SWA57-

FORCE AND DESTINY

 

SWF01-Force and Destiny Beginner Game
SWF02-Force and Destiny Core Rulebook
SWF03-Force and Destiny Game Master's Kit
SWF04-
SWF05-Soresu Defender Specialization Deck
SWF06-Protector Specialization Deck
SWF07-Peacekeeper Specialization Deck
SWF08-Shii-Cho Knight Specialization Deck
SWF09-Starfighter Ace Specialization Deck
SWF10-Aggressor Specialization Deck
SWF11-Shien Expert Specialization Deck
SWF12-Artisan Specialization Deck
SWF13-Shadow Specialization Deck
SWF14-Ataru Striker Specialization Deck
SWF15-Pathfinder Specialization Deck
SWF16-Hunter Specialization Deck
SWF17-Niman Disciple Specialization Deck
SWF18-Sage Specialization Deck
SWF19-Healer Specialization Deck
SWF20-Makashi Duelist Specialization Deck
SWF21-Seer Specialization Deck
SWF22-Advisor Specialization Deck
SWF23-Chronicles of the Gatekeeper
SWF24-Keeping the Peace
SWF25-Warden Specialization Deck
SWF26-Armorer Specialization Deck
SWF27-Warleader Specialization Deck
SWF28-Guardian Signature Abilities Deck
SWF29-Nexus of Power
SWF30-Endless Vigil
SWF31-Racer Specialization Deck
SWF32-Investigator Specialization Deck
SWF33-Sentry Specialization Deck
SWF34-Sentinel Signature Abilities Deck
SWF35-Disciples of Harmony
SWF36-Teacher Specialization Deck
SWF37-Arbiter Specialization Deck
SWF38-Ascetic Specialization Deck
SWF39-Consular Signature Abilities Deck
SWF40-Ghosts of Dathomir
SWF41-Savage Spirits
SWF42-Navigator Specialization Deck
SWF43-Executioner Specialization Deck
SWF44-Hermit Specialization Deck
SWF45-Seeker Signature Abilities Deck
SWF46-Knights of Fate
SWF47-
SWF48-
SWF49-
SWF50-
SWF51-
SWF52-Unlimited Power
SWF53-Magus Specialization Deck
SWF54-Prophet Specialization Deck
SWF55-Alchemist Specialization Deck
SWF56-Mystic Signature Abilities Deck

UNIVERSAL PRODUCTS

 

SWR01-Scum and Villainy Adversary Deck
SWR02-Imperials and Rebels Adversary Deck
SWR03-Citizens of the Galaxy Adversary Deck
SWR04-Critical Injury Deck
SWR05-Critical Hit Deck
SWR06-Creatures of the Galaxy Adversary Deck
SWR07-Imperials and Rebels II Adversary Deck
SWR08-Hunters and Force Users Adversary Deck
SWR09-The Force Awakens Beginner Game
SWR10-Dawn of Rebellion

Edited by Absol197

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I'm not just replying to this topic so I can find it again later, but seriously, your predictions tend to be spot on. Glad to know I'm likely to get a copy of Forged in Battle out of GenCon! (Not that I'm going, unfortunately, but a friend promised to grab me one.)

Why thank 'e! I try my very best!

Of course, being this close to release its hard to get it wrong if you know what to look for. And since there haven't been many "boating accidents" recently, I'm considering it a high-probably prediction.

Endless Vigil, on the other hand, is still very very rough. It'll probably jump closer by a lot once we go to the printer and I can start to see the lay of the land.

Edited by Absol197

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So do you have any dates at the top of a bell curve that may represent the day the next product will be announced? August to November seems an awfully big gap between releases, is it possible we could get 2 more announcements for release before Christmas?

Love your work too, it's reassuring somehow.

Edited by Richardbuxton

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Yes I do, actually!

There are a couple of things I've been looking at, and the data suggest our next Edge announcement should (finally!) be closing in.

First off, it's important to note that the longest a single line has gone without an announcement is 236 days, and this has happened twice: with Edge between Fly Casual and Mask of the Pirate Queen, and with Age between Strongholds of Resistance and Lead by Example. However, as of today (07/19/2016), Edge has gone 229 days without an announcement. Even if it goes over (which I'm expecting it will), I seriously doubt they want one of the lines to go without any new product announcements for more than two-thirds a year.

Now, this brings us to the next thing: what time of the month do announcements usually happen in? The answer is a resounding "First two weeks." The most common day of the month for new announcements is the 10th (4), followed by the 6th (3); but, with the exception of 2 Age books (seriously, Age, you ruin everything!), nothing has been announced past the 16th of the month, and even going past the 10th is very rare. Mondays are a common day for Edge announcements, as are Thursdays, but we still don't have an announcement on the first of a month.

So prediction is that we'll get a new Edge book announced on either Wednesday the 3rd or Thursday the 4th of August. Unless they buck the trends, which they could do :) . Thursday the 4th is the one I'm leaning towards, because it's also GenCon, so they could announce it at GenCon and get a two-fer.

Edited by Absol197

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Yes I do, actually!

There are a couple of things I've been looking at, and the data suggest our next Edge announcement should (finally!) be closing in.

First off, it's important to note that the longest a single line has gone without an announcement is 236 days, and this has happened twice: with Edge between Fly Casual and Mask of the Pirate Queen, and with Age between Strongholds of Resistance and Lead by Example. However, as of today (07/19/2016), Edge has gone 229 days without an announcement. Even if it goes over (which I'm expecting it will), I seriously doubt they want one of the lines to go without any new product announcements for more than two-thirds a year.

Now, this brings us to the next thing: what time of the month do announcements usually happen in? The answer is a resounding "First two weeks." The most common day of the month for new announcements is the 10th (4), followed by the 6th (3); but, with the exception of 2 Age books (seriously, Age, you ruin everything!), nothing has been announced past the 16th of the month, and even going past the 10th is very rare. Mondays are a common day for Edge announcements, as are Thursdays, but we still don't have an announcement on the first of a month.

So prediction is that we'll get a new Edge book announced on either Wednesday the 3rd or Thursday the 4th of August. Unless they buck the trends, which they could do :) . Thursday the 4th is the one I'm leaning towards, because it's also GenCon, so they could announce it at GenCon and get a two-fer.

I am guessing sector book. Maybe Bounty hunter. But I think the Arkanis Sector would be likely. It gives us Geonosis and Tatooine. Which would give you sand people, Jawas, and Geonosians as Species. And a bunch of planets. I could see both bounty hunter and Sector book being announced at Gencon. 

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Yes I do, actually!

There are a couple of things I've been looking at, and the data suggest our next Edge announcement should (finally!) be closing in.

First off, it's important to note that the longest a single line has gone without an announcement is 236 days, and this has happened twice: with Edge between Fly Casual and Mask of the Pirate Queen, and with Age between Strongholds of Resistance and Lead by Example. However, as of today (07/19/2016), Edge has gone 229 days without an announcement. Even if it goes over (which I'm expecting it will), I seriously doubt they want one of the lines to go without any new product announcements for more than two-thirds a year.

Now, this brings us to the next thing: what time of the month do announcements usually happen in? The answer is a resounding "First two weeks." The most common day of the month for new announcements is the 10th (4), followed by the 6th (3); but, with the exception of 2 Age books (seriously, Age, you ruin everything!), nothing has been announced past the 16th of the month, and even going past the 10th is very rare. Mondays are a common day for Edge announcements, as are Thursdays, but we still don't have an announcement on the first of a month.

So prediction is that we'll get a new Edge book announced on either Wednesday the 3rd or Thursday the 4th of August. Unless they buck the trends, which they could do :) . Thursday the 4th is the one I'm leaning towards, because it's also GenCon, so they could announce it at GenCon and get a two-fer.

I am guessing sector book. Maybe Bounty hunter. But I think the Arkanis Sector would be likely. It gives us Geonosis and Tatooine. Which would give you sand people, Jawas, and Geonosians as Species. And a bunch of planets. I could see both bounty hunter and Sector book being announced at Gencon. 

 

 

I was actually going to ask: Absol, do you have any data supporting the likelihood of one kind of book over another being announced? Not sure if your models are predictive based on that kind of information, but I'd like to know if we have a bounty hunter book coming in the near future, or an adventure, or a sector book.

 

If I was to guess (and this would be a guess, albeit maybe an educated one) given how FFG may want to maintain interest, we'll see either a sector book or an adventure book, then whichever one wasn't chosen first, and then the bounty hunter book. I'll cry if that's the case, though.

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I was actually going to ask: Absol, do you have any data supporting the likelihood of one kind of book over another being announced? Not sure if your models are predictive based on that kind of information, but I'd like to know if we have a bounty hunter book coming in the near future, or an adventure, or a sector book.

 

If I was to guess (and this would be a guess, albeit maybe an educated one) given how FFG may want to maintain interest, we'll see either a sector book or an adventure book, then whichever one wasn't chosen first, and then the bounty hunter book. I'll cry if that's the case, though.

Sort of, it's line-specific. In the beginning when there was only Edge, there was a definite pattern to the releases: Adventure > Career > Region > Career. After Age came out it started keeping to the pattern itself, until it broke it with two Career releases in a row (Stay on Target and Desperate Allies). But then Age is a universal outlier (seriously, every single major outlier is from Age...). When Force came out, it was a good team player and stuck to the pattern.

So, I was content to believe that Edge and Force would keep to the pattern and that Age would just do it's weird Age thing. But then Endless Vigil went and got itself announced when we should have gotten a new adventure, breaking the pattern for Force books. And now...I'm having a harder time convincing myself that the pattern will keep for Edge. It's so close to being complete: all we need is a new Region book and then the Bounty Hunter book and we're good! But I'm not as certain as I was that they won't just jump straight to the BH book to get it out.

IF they decide to keep to the pattern, we'll get another Region book and then the Bounty Hunter book everyone's been clamoring for. If they break the pattern...who knows? We're way overdue on Adventures for all three lines, with the possible exception of Edge, but...

EDIT: To be honest, there are a couple of ways at looking at the book-type data that I haven't done yet, so there might be some secrets hiding in there I could worm out. But that type of sort would require a major re-work of my existing spreadsheets and I feel it's a very low probability that there will be anything interesting or noteworthy there, so I haven't done it yet. If they break the Edge pattern too, then I'll reconsider, but we've probably got a couple of weeks before we'll know.

Edited by Absol197

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I'm wondering if they are just going to steam ahead with the career books now?  They did have a pattern of sorts, and something seems to have changed this last 6-12 months. 

 

Either way, I think FFG should give Phee a job compiling statistics! (and pay OggDude for the Character Editor...)

Edited by Maelora

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As amazing as that would be, I have to wonder what statistics they would need compiled.

Right now I'm an outsider trying to guess what's going on inside their organization based on how they've acted before. But the people working there already know what's going on, they don't need me to run numbers to tell them that!

...They don't, right? If they do, don't tell me, because then I'll worry their organization is so disorganized that it might collapse before they finish all three lines. And I NEED my Mystic book, gorram-it!

Edited by Absol197

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Like Maelora I also think that FFG will only print career books until all 18 are done. I doubt we will get more adventure books as those we already have do get the job done with introducing the themes of each line. 

 

Age of Rebellion theme is running from the Empire and doing hit-and-run military missions against the Empire.

 

Force And Destiny theme is searching for ancient Jedi lore.

 

The themes of Edge of the Empire is exploration and treasure hunting, criminal activity and hunting individuals for bounties.

 

A pattern i have noticed with the regional books is that they expand upon most of the planets in the black pages in the core rulebooks. If we get a third regional book for Edge of the Empire it probably will expand upon Tattooine and Ryloth and a dozen other hives of scum and villainy.

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I'd welcome a general 'shadowports' book like 'Nexus of Power', only for EoE.

 

I'd prefer other things over Tattooine, simply because it's been done to death down the years.

 

I know it's borderline heresy, but I'd actually like FFG to do something new, a whole new sector with new factions, species, outlooks, etc. They already did the budgerigar-people and the Budgie Planet, so they must have some licence to make new stuff (I dunno, maybe that was pre-Disney?) 

 

Considering how huge the Star Wars galaxy is, I'm always nonplussed why we keep coming back to the same places, the same names, the same tired tropes.  I understand to a degree why the movies and shows are always so full of familiar elements; but an RPG is an ideal place to explore this stuff, to think outside the box a little.

 

I kinda miss the way the WEG version of the game really tried to open up new horizons.  There's more to Star Wars than the Kardashians Skywalkers.

Edited by Maelora

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I'm thinking that the next Region book for Edge is very likely to be a "Shadowports" book, including classic planets like Tatooine and Ryloth (and maybe another certain desert planet? None of you will know which one I'm talking about ;) ...). While like Marcy I'm in favor of something new that hasn't been done before, I actually think they've done a pretty good job of resisting jumping into the super-familiar right out of the gate.

Now, whether that Region book is next...I'm less certain than I was, but I still don't think that they'll just dump all the career books on us at once. I'm holding out hope that they haven't gone that bonkers yet! :)

Edited by Absol197

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I do have some data on this. A couple years ago I talked to Sam Stewart about it and he said that yes they were trying to keep a pattern. But then that got too hard to maintain....So I think they try but when there is a delay they just announce what is ready. 

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Sales may influence things, too. From what I understand, historically RPG adventures sell less than sourcebooks & the like. Of course, I've no idea if that holds true for the SW RPG or not, though.

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It might. Mask of the Pirate Queen has been out of stock for a while, yet it's still not queued up for reprint, according to the Upcoming page.

Meanwhile, both Special Modifications and Nexus of Power were queued up almost as soon as they sold out. Unfortunately, I have no real way to track the sales figures for each book to see if that supposition has any validity. Believe me, I've tried!

Edited by Absol197

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Sales figures for most products can be really hard to get because most companies regards these numbers as company secrets.Precise sales figures for RPG books are nearly impossible to get as they are sold in multiple venues like brick-and-mortar stores who get the books through distributors, small online shops and the big ones like Amazon and Barnes & Noble.

 

I know that there are e few bloggers who have access to sales numbers for comics out there but for RPG books its all anecdotal. IGN.com do make lists of bestselling RPGs each year.

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I'm thinking that the next Region book for Edge is very likely to be a "Shadowports" book, including classic planets like Tatooine and Ryloth (and maybe another certain desert planet? None of you will know which one I'm talking about ;) ...). While like Marcy I'm in favor of something new that hasn't been done before, I actually think they've done a pretty good job of resisting jumping into the super-familiar right out of the gate.

Now, whether that Region book is next...I'm less certain than I was, but I still don't think that they'll just dump all the career books on us at once. I'm holding out hope that they haven't gone that bonkers yet! :)

This. I wants this.

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