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PartyPotato

=Week 2= What is the Perfect Bid?

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=Week 2= What is the Perfect Bid?

 

This is a bit late… ok it’s really late and it’s a lot smaller than I wanted. Real life has an uncanny way of always interrupting the truly important things in life.

 

If you missed last week’s post about squadrons check it out below.

=Week 1= The Beginning and a Look at Squadrons

 

 

With new lists due for the vassal tournament just around the corner; I thought I would touch on a topic that everyone thinks about when constructing a list.  What is the correct bid for initiative?  I’ve seen some pretty aggressive lists out there bidding 20+ points to win first turn.

 

Hopefully this can shed some new light on the topic.

 

 

Question #1

What is the ideal bid?

 

That depends.  By building a list with 399 pts you will have a 1 in 4 chance of winning initiative.  After looking at the data it appears to me that most people grossly over estimate the amount of points needed to win that coveted initiative.

 

For rebels your bid only needs to be 9 pts for you to have initiative against 90% of rebel lists out there.

 

Empire is only slightly higher requiring a bid of 10 points to have initiative against 90% of imperial lists. 

 

All lists with bids greater than 10 pts only represent 9% of the lists out there.  So if you’re bidding 20+ points to go first I’d say you are leaving free points on the table and there is less than a 1 in 10 chance it’s going to matter. 

 

 

 

The%20Bid.png

 

 

Edit #2 starts Here

 

Added two more graphs.  One showing unconsolidated numbers across the entire spectrum.  The only only focuses on bids less than 390.  Red is Rebel and Blue Imperial... of course.

 

Small%20Bid.png

Total%20Bid.png

 

Until next time... happy gaming.

 

*edit: fixed link

Edited by PartyPotato
Darth Tam, MoffZen, Typo and 1 other like this

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I don't think there is a "correct" bid per se.  Some people build their list so that it has to go first or second, and to do that they need a bid.  If you're building for first, you definitely need a higher bid.  396 will reliably let you go second in my experience and going lower is just bumping into the people that are going to give you second anyway.

 

But additionally, some lists can move well between first or second.  If you really don't care, why bid at all?  In that case, the correct bid is none.

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Very cool dataset ! :D

 

Not sure how useable this data is when trying to get the bid, but it's quite interesting for sure.

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Great post on an interesting topic, thanks for posting it.

 

 

 

 

All lists with bids greater than 10 pts only represent 9% of the lists out there.  So if you’re bidding 20+ points to go first I’d say you are leaving free points on the table and there is less than a 1 in 10 chance it’s going to matter.

 

 

Here's the "But"

 

But if you are serious about bidding for first, it is usually because you have a list that really benefits from it (usually Demolisher, or chunky MC30). The other lists with bids greater than 10pts will also be the ones most serious about bidding for first (usually Demolisher, or chunky MC30) because it's a self-selecting category of players, and those are the ones your serious-bidding list really needs to beat.

Initiative in games with that sort of mactch up can be game-deciding.

 

My own view on bidding is to always throw at least 1 point at it, about 8 points if a particular list benefits somewhat, and then there is a dead-zone of points before I start bidding 20+ if the list really needs it.

 

If you are able to work it out, a breakdown of that broad "<390" category would be really interesting.

 

Thanks!

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A lot will depend on your meta. Since Wave 2, the bids at my club have got much bigger, with most players bidding between 12-18 points (usually when they have 4 or 5 ships and want to go first for activation advantage).

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@Party Potato : So I took another look at your graphs, and while I think that they might not be the most relevant data to develop a bidding theory, I think that they are a great tool for choosing your own personal bid !

 

Considering that 90% of Imperial players are at or above 390 points, and about 92% of Rebel players too, it's interesting to know that 389 points is likely to outbid 9 players out of 10.

 

For really low bids, the main psychological ticker seems to be 380 points :D So, I'm trying to build a list to absolutely ensure going first, and I'm going to try 375 points :D Based on your graphs, it should outbid 99.5% of the playerbase.

 

Out of curiosity, could you do a "pareto-ish" graph ? As in at each bid, the number of players you will outbid ? Both consolidating both factions and for each faction individually ?

 

The value set should look something like this :

- 400 points : 0% (% of outbid players at 401 points, so no outbidding)

- 399 points : 27.5% of the player base (% of outbid players at 400)

- 398 points : 40% of the player base (sum of % of outbid players at 400 and 399)

- 397 points : 65% of the player base (sum of % of outbid players at 400, 399 and 398 points)

- 396 points : Etc..

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This is really cool, but in terms of bids, you either go big or go home.  You only really go big if you really need to have a certain ship go first e.g. BBAckbar or Demolisher.

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@Party Potato : So I took another look at your graphs, and while I think that they might not be the most relevant data to develop a bidding theory, I think that they are a great tool for choosing your own personal bid !

 

Considering that 90% of Imperial players are at or above 390 points, and about 92% of Rebel players too, it's interesting to know that 389 points is likely to outbid 9 players out of 10.

 

For really low bids, the main psychological ticker seems to be 380 points :D So, I'm trying to build a list to absolutely ensure going first, and I'm going to try 375 points :D Based on your graphs, it should outbid 99.5% of the playerbase.

 

Out of curiosity, could you do a "pareto-ish" graph ? As in at each bid, the number of players you will outbid ? Both consolidating both factions and for each faction individually ?

 

The value set should look something like this :

- 400 points : 0% (% of outbid players at 401 points, so no outbidding)

- 399 points : 27.5% of the player base (% of outbid players at 400)

- 398 points : 40% of the player base (sum of % of outbid players at 400 and 399)

- 397 points : 65% of the player base (sum of % of outbid players at 400, 399 and 398 points)

- 396 points : Etc..

 

Ya, absolutely.  I'll throw it up tomorrow afternoon.

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No graph this time.  Its a TABLE!  This is essentially what % of lists each fleet size is smaller than.  For example if my fleet was 397pts, then from my data set I could infer that my fleet would be smaller than ~56% of the fleets out there.  For those of you that "MUST" win initiative having a 30pt bid will have you beating 99.8% of the lists in my data set.  -Enjoy

 

Not sure why the image is so terrible.  But it gets the point across.

 

Bids.png

Edited by PartyPotato
Darth Tam and MoffZen like this

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Awesome ! That's some very useful data here !

 

So yeah, at 392 points, then you outbid 80% of the playerbase. So, 1 out of 5 will outbid you.

 

But at 375 points, only 1 person out of 200 players will outbid you.

 

I'm starting to think that we might see a dichotomy between players bidding on objectives and players bidding for first, with the latter going for 370ish points, while the other ones will be comfortable between 390 and 400.

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For me, you either go big or go home.  So 400 or something outruns the vast majority of the meta, with no more than 390.

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I think that looking at it percentage-wise only clouds the picture. The real question for bid selection is  - what types of fleets do you want to outbid?

 

I personally usually do opposite to what HERO is suggesting and use a pretty small bid with the idea of outgunning fleets that decided to go big and outbidding fleets that decided to go home and use full 400 points.

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Interesting topic.   I almost always build my lists to 400 points exactly.   I'm equally as happy being 1st played as I am being 2nd player. 

 

  If I'm playing rebels, this means ALWAYS having a Jaina's Light in my list.   If I'm playing Imperials, this means always having at least 1 ISD in my list for that shoot 1st scenario.   Also I like to have as many activations as possible. 

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I think that looking at it percentage-wise only clouds the picture. The real question for bid selection is  - what types of fleets do you want to outbid?

 

I personally usually do opposite to what HERO is suggesting and use a pretty small bid with the idea of outgunning fleets that decided to go big and outbidding fleets that decided to go home and use full 400 points.

 

Putting it in percentages adds statistical support to your objective you just outlined.  If you simply want to beat fleets fielding the full 400pts while ignoring all of the aggressive bidders out there by looking at the above table I can infer that by bidding 3 points you'll have initiative against more than half the lists you face.  You're fine going second but having a choice is always nice, right?  Well 3 points gets you there more than half the time.

 

edit: Spelling

Edited by PartyPotato

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I think that looking at it percentage-wise only clouds the picture. The real question for bid selection is  - what types of fleets do you want to outbid?

 

I personally usually do opposite to what HERO is suggesting and use a pretty small bid with the idea of outgunning fleets that decided to go big and outbidding fleets that decided to go home and use full 400 points.

 

Sure, but I think this has a lot about whether you want to play the objectives for example, and want to play second, because you have a fleet that accommodates to that.  Likewise, if I'm betting on going first, you **** well know that I will pay a pretty penny for that outrageous initiative bid.

 

At the end of the day, it comes down to the fleet again.

 

If anything, I'd be interested in know what categorization of fleet these players are bidding at.  My Rebel Carriers fleet runs at 400 while my AckbarBB runs at typically <390.  It's a big difference, with two completely different objectives.

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I think that looking at it percentage-wise only clouds the picture. The real question for bid selection is  - what types of fleets do you want to outbid?

 

I personally usually do opposite to what HERO is suggesting and use a pretty small bid with the idea of outgunning fleets that decided to go big and outbidding fleets that decided to go home and use full 400 points.

 

Sure, but I think this has a lot about whether you want to play the objectives for example, and want to play second, because you have a fleet that accommodates to that.  Likewise, if I'm betting on going first, you **** well know that I will pay a pretty penny for that outrageous initiative bid.

 

At the end of the day, it comes down to the fleet again.

 

If anything, I'd be interested in know what categorization of fleet these players are bidding at.  My Rebel Carriers fleet runs at 400 while my AckbarBB runs at typically <390.  It's a big difference, with two completely different objectives.

 

All true, my point is that there are fleets that are perfectly comfortable to be in the middle and spend some small amount of points on the first player bid without going all in.

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I think that looking at it percentage-wise only clouds the picture. The real question for bid selection is  - what types of fleets do you want to outbid?

 

I personally usually do opposite to what HERO is suggesting and use a pretty small bid with the idea of outgunning fleets that decided to go big and outbidding fleets that decided to go home and use full 400 points.

 

Sure, but I think this has a lot about whether you want to play the objectives for example, and want to play second, because you have a fleet that accommodates to that.  Likewise, if I'm betting on going first, you **** well know that I will pay a pretty penny for that outrageous initiative bid.

 

At the end of the day, it comes down to the fleet again.

 

If anything, I'd be interested in know what categorization of fleet these players are bidding at.  My Rebel Carriers fleet runs at 400 while my AckbarBB runs at typically <390.  It's a big difference, with two completely different objectives.

 

All true, my point is that there are fleets that are perfectly comfortable to be in the middle and spend some small amount of points on the first player bid without going all in.

 

 

Right, which is probably why we see the point-ranges we do in the first place.  However, it's also to be noted that sometimes, you just end up with XYZ amount of points.  I doubt, but encourage, players to look at their meta and evaluate which is the common bid to beat.

 

About to go hard-nerd right now, but it's kinda like competitive Pokemon battling right.  Knowing that a specific IV/Nature will outrun XYZ in the meta is vital in the selection process.  Same thing here.

 

More specific Armada example:  The clonisher netlist's speed was 387.  Out-run it at 386, or even 385 to be safe and that Demolisher thinks twice before approaching a AckbarBB.  In fact, this is exactly what I did that carried me to my third Store Championship win in the spring season where I faced TWO almost identical builds running DeMSU :P

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