# MathWing (but not the MathWing)

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Jousting values are great, and efficiency is good, and gut feelings are fine, but there is some really nice math that everyone can think about to help build their lists.

The Fat Han could get an evade token off the title and the green roll + 3po gave a second evade, so the only way to get his health down was hitting for 3 or more a turn.  Soontir can get autothrusters on a blank or his nearly-always focus for an evade, with a second from palpatine (usually) so even with the worst defensive roll 2 hits won't touch him. TLTs were the counter for wave seven, a three dice attack was needed to do damage.  Three dice attacks weren't likely to do much more than 1 damage anyway, and then they get two damage a turn.   This seems great in theory, but TLT nearly always does 2 on anyone less defensive than that.

Now we have the U-boats.  The potential for up to six 4 hit attacks, though usually they won't fire all the possible munitions.  This means we have to rethink defense again.

I've seen the math around that Proton Torpedoes on the usual loadout have a 90% chance of 4 hits (I agree with that math).  This means the optimal hull and shields is 4x+1, (adjusted slightly for green dice).

For example, look at a hypothetical 0 agility 3 hull 1 shield ship.  It dies to the first torpedo.  If it is a 0 agility 3 hull 2 shield ship, it takes two torpedoes (barring double damage crits).  If it is a 0 agility 4 hull and 4 shield ship, it still dies to two torpedoes.

Ignoring agility, this means the most efficient points-spent-on-hp when fighting ships with munitions will be 5, 9, and 13.

To insure against a direct hit, 6, 10, and 14 are pretty good.   To insure against two double damage crits: 7, 11, and 15 aren't a complete waste.

However, if we are only considering torpedoes (which I realize will probably not be the exclusive meta) The 8th, 12th, and 16th point of HP is pretty much worthless.

Does anyone have other mildly interesting (but maybe easier to wrap your head around) math for those those of us that aren't math teachers?

I am actually a math teacher.

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Sure thing

​Your math assumes a theoretical 0 agility ship, which is rather the X-Wing equivalent of a spherical cow in a vacuum.

Once you factor in the defender's Damage Mitigation (i.e. how much damage their agility and actions will soak before getting dealt to them), the numbers actually dwindle.

​In other words, an Evade's as good as a shield here

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Sure thing

​Your math assumes a theoretical 0 agility ship, which is rather the X-Wing equivalent of a spherical cow in a vacuum.

Once you factor in the defender's Damage Mitigation (i.e. how much damage their agility and actions will soak before getting dealt to them), the numbers actually dwindle.

​In other words, an Evade's as good as a shield here

The VCX-100 and the Decimator would like to have words with your spherical cow.

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Sure thing

​Your math assumes a theoretical 0 agility ship, which is rather the X-Wing equivalent of a spherical cow in a vacuum.

Once you factor in the defender's Damage Mitigation (i.e. how much damage their agility and actions will soak before getting dealt to them), the numbers actually dwindle.

​In other words, an Evade's as good as a shield here

Yeah!  A well timed evade action counts for 1 hp, and green dice represent fractional HP, which you have to multiply by the number of incoming shots.

Then we get into focus tokens, and multiple actions, and then I am having nightmare-flashbacks of college stats classes...

I actually went with a zero agility ship because I am a pessimist, and this is the correct math for if you never roll a evade!

Edited by AEIllingworth

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​Your math assumes a theoretical 0 agility ship, which is rather the X-Wing equivalent of a spherical cow in a vacuum.

Once you factor in the defender's Damage Mitigation (i.e. how much damage their agility and actions will soak before getting dealt to them), the numbers actually dwindle.

​In other words, an Evade's as good as a shield here

The VCX-100 and the Decimator would like to have words with your spherical cow.

So would railgun Zuckuss!

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Sure thing

​Your math assumes a theoretical 0 agility ship, which is rather the X-Wing equivalent of a spherical cow in a vacuum.

Once you factor in the defender's Damage Mitigation (i.e. how much damage their agility and actions will soak before getting dealt to them), the numbers actually dwindle.

​In other words, an Evade's as good as a shield here

Yeah!  A well timed evade action counts for 1 hp, and green dice represent fractional HP, which you have to multiply by the number of incoming shots.

Then we get into focus tokens, and multiple actions, and then I am having nightmare-flashbacks of college stats classes...

I actually went with a zero agility ship because I am a pessimist, and this is the correct math for if you never roll a evade!

To be fair, it makes a decent point: If you want an 8HP ship to survive two hits, you need it to roll at least one evade in two attacks.

You can then do the math on how its dice are likely to pull this off, and that's your time-to-vaporisation there.

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I learned a few waves ago not to rely on my green dice. Mathematically, the odds are stacked against you from the start. Just compare the potentials on a red to the green potential. Now factor in the fact that there are more numerous and more powerful modifications for the reds then for the greens. Lastly, consider the fact that you win not by defending, but by destroying. To put it simple, your main defence is your movement. Soontir and fat han can't have all of those tokens stacked if you block them, denying their actions. U-boats can't destroy you if you arc dodge them. All my squads are built with these ideas in mind. Basically have at least one low ps ship to block and at least one higher ps ship with great offensive capability as well as great maneuverability. Upgrades that don't require actions are always a good choice, predator being my favorite, along with sensor jammer and autothruster. I get all 3 on the starviper, and with Guri as pilot I get a focus as well. As for blockers, bug zappers work wonders. Hope this helps you with any future squad building.

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A deadeye-wielding torpedo-thrower with no focus token throws zero torpedoes. Palob, Carnor, and Wes are my new best buds.

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Sure thing

​Your math assumes a theoretical 0 agility ship, which is rather the X-Wing equivalent of a spherical cow in a vacuum.

Once you factor in the defender's Damage Mitigation (i.e. how much damage their agility and actions will soak before getting dealt to them), the numbers actually dwindle.

​In other words, an Evade's as good as a shield here

Yeah!  A well timed evade action counts for 1 hp, and green dice represent fractional HP, which you have to multiply by the number of incoming shots.

Then we get into focus tokens, and multiple actions, and then I am having nightmare-flashbacks of college stats classes...

I actually went with a zero agility ship because I am a pessimist, and this is the correct math for if you never roll a evade!

To be fair, it makes a decent point: If you want an 8HP ship to survive two hits, you need it to roll at least one evade in two attacks.

You can then do the math on how its dice are likely to pull this off, and that's your time-to-vaporisation there.

In this case, you are fairly likely to roll at least one evade on a Focused B-Wing, but you're extremely unlikely to roll 5

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I'm starting to evaluate ships this way. A G-1A dies in two torpedoes if it doesn't take or roll an evade. It dies in three torpedoes no matter how many you roll if you take the evade action once. With perfect rolls but unobstructed shots you need two evade actions to live through three, once again no double damage crits. Now how does that change with sensor jammer?

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Actually an interesting point in the G-1A's favour - access to that ninth guranteed 'hit'.

Hadn't really considered it in that way.

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Sure thing

​Your math assumes a theoretical 0 agility ship, which is rather the X-Wing equivalent of a spherical cow in a vacuum.

Once you factor in the defender's Damage Mitigation (i.e. how much damage their agility and actions will soak before getting dealt to them), the numbers actually dwindle.

​In other words, an Evade's as good as a shield here

Is that an alabaster spherical cow in a vacuum?

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Since many torpedo boats are using plasmas, Y wings and Zs have good frames, as rolling one evade against either torp with the Y will cause it to soak 3, and rolling one evade on your Zs 2agi will cause it to need a second shot. Ties and B wings fare poorly. The B will need to roll 2 evades to survive the 2nd torp as the first will eat +1 shield no matter what. The tie invests in agi instead of straight durability, which is bad against 4 dice attacks. It needs to roll 2+ evades to survive a single torp, which is a risky gamble. Biggs with r4d6 integrated will almost always eat three torps then die, but he can survive if he rolls 2 evade vs 3 hits.

Therefore, I posit that r4d6 biggs with a stresshog to deny the all-important focus, plus some talas to fire at ps4 is a very effective jousting counter, especially if you manage to split enemy fire between biggs and other ships.

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Since many torpedo boats are using plasmas, Y wings and Zs have good frames, as rolling one evade against either torp with the Y will cause it to soak 3, and rolling one evade on your Zs 2agi will cause it to need a second shot. Ties and B wings fare poorly. The B will need to roll 2 evades to survive the 2nd torp as the first will eat +1 shield no matter what. The tie invests in agi instead of straight durability, which is bad against 4 dice attacks. It needs to roll 2+ evades to survive a single torp, which is a risky gamble. Biggs with r4d6 integrated will almost always eat three torps then die, but he can survive if he rolls 2 evade vs 3 hits.

Therefore, I posit that r4d6 biggs with a stresshog to deny the all-important focus, plus some talas to fire at ps4 is a very effective jousting counter, especially if you manage to split enemy fire between biggs and other ships.

R4-D6 Biggs requires 3 Torpedoes to kill.

​That ain't nothin'

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Also, R4D6 on Red Ace.
​How's that for nutsiness?

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Sure thing

​Your math assumes a theoretical 0 agility ship, which is rather the X-Wing equivalent of a spherical cow in a vacuum.

Once you factor in the defender's Damage Mitigation (i.e. how much damage their agility and actions will soak before getting dealt to them), the numbers actually dwindle.

​In other words, an Evade's as good as a shield here

The VCX-100 and the Decimator would like to have words with your spherical cow.

The VCX is pretty close to the ideal sphere at least.

A deadeye-wielding torpedo-thrower with no focus token throws zero torpedoes. Palob, Carnor, and Wes are my new best buds.

I have heard a rumour that ships with deadeye can actually launch torpedoes using this newfangled thing called a "target lock"

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I think that r4-d6 biggs is probably point for point one of the most survivable ships against plasmas (outside of generic Z-95s). This is not, unfortunately true against protons.

This breakdown of damage into 4 damage chunks makes the aforementioned generic Z's very strong against jumpmasters. The likelihood of 1 torp killing a Z is exceedingly low (10.5% for plasmas 12.5% for prots). This means that a Z-95 takes all of a JM-5000's payload to kill then the jumpmaster is left with only a r4 agromech worth of firepower more than those Z's.

Nothing quite like forcing an opponent to expend 33-34 points of firepower to kill 12-13 points of yours. A list that I am thinking about running based on this is Blount with tracers alongside 6 talas, four of which have guidance chips and tracers. Has the offensive output of a howl swarm but without the centrality of howlrunner giving a weakness to the strategy.

Edited by Jamaican Lumberjack

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That brings up another good point about math!  One of the reasons Paul Heaver said he took the Poe VI R2D2 is that is is good against TLT, but the other reason is that at 36 points he gets the modified win against a standard built Soontir Fel (35 points)  If you see a huge amount of Poe, it may be worth trying to get your ace to 37 points, for the same reason.  If you see a lot of Proton Torpedo JM5ks, 35 points is enough for the modified win.

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This breakdown of damage into 4 damage chunks makes the aforementioned generic Z's very strong against jumpmasters. The likelihood of 1 torp killing a Z is exceedingly low (10.5% for plasmas 12.5% for prots).

It's possible I made a mistake somewhere, but here's what I think is the distribution for the number of successes (total of hits and crits) on a Proton Torpedo launched with a target lock and Guidance Chips to modify the results:

0: 0%

1: 0.0%

2: 5.9%

3: 28.0%

4: 66.0%

So if you're in a Z-95 and you're sitting token-less, here's the distribution of damage (treating crits as regular damage):

0: 0.0%

1: 6.8%

2: 24.7%

3: 41.9%

4: 25.8%

If you have a focus token, the numbers get even better:

0: 2.4%

1: 13.7%

2: 39.7%

3: 34.9%

4: 9.3%

So you're right: if you're expecting to face U-boats, it's important to keep an eye on your ship's total hit points divided by four, but it's not just important to group hit points that way. Even a ship with 2 Agility and "just" 4 hit points can focus and have an excellent chance at draining two torpedoes from the U-boats. That's an important consideration because it means, for instance, that Biggs with Integrated Astromech will almost certainly survive one torpedo, and has better than a 50/50 shot of surviving two.

When U-boats work, they're extraordinarily impressive on offense. But it's easy to forget the amount of "swing" in even a heavily modified attack in X-wing, and that swing stacks on itself across multiple attacks. If you assume your opponent will hit that 66% of 4 hits and crits every time, and you'll wash out on your evade dice every time, then you'll never be disappointed--but your picture of how the match is likely to proceed will have some holes in it.

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The 90% number I mentioned above as regards to four hits is specifically for the deadeye + R4 Agromech + Chips, which has exploded (hah!) in popularity the last two weeks.  I figure it is a good thing to plan against for now, because constant 4 hits is easy math to deal with.  I know it is an approximation at best.  Having said that, a Z-95 has a (5/8)2 chance of blank/focusing a defensive roll: about 39%. That means the four hit torpedo has about a 40% chance of killing a z-95 with no defensive mods.

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