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Lets Analyse Threat Range

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This is really excellent stuff and a nice resource for new players.  If you don't have your own blog, you should have myself, BiggsIRL, or someone else host it on their blog as a guest article.

 

Someone should be hosting this thing - it's too good of a post to be lost to the whims of the forums.

 

Since Schmitty suggested it, I'd suggest teaming up with him to get it up.

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This is really excellent stuff and a nice resource for new players.  If you don't have your own blog, you should have myself, BiggsIRL, or someone else host it on their blog as a guest article.

 

Someone should be hosting this thing - it's too good of a post to be lost to the whims of the forums.

 

Since Schmitty suggested it, I'd suggest teaming up with him to get it up.

why not both :)

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Now that I am working on the speed 0 a Threat Range video would be nice. . . Would have to break it by class those so it's not so long.

Have 1 for the Battlecruiser (ISD and MC80)

Cruisers (VSD and Whale)

Destroyers (GSD and MC30)

Frigates (Nebulon-B)

Corvettes

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This thread is interesting. I shall look closer at it soon, when I have time. Meanwhile, I've been running some statistics (using MATLAB) on a similar list I've been constructing, which includes Vader instead of Screed.

 

Here's the damage potential of a Demolisher, with 3 attacks (front, front and side), including the effect of a single brace (assumed to be removed with the Intel Officer; IO). This is a deterministic calculation, not a stochastic / Monte Carlo one, so no need for confidence intervals. It is a stochastic simulation with 100 000 attack sequences.

 

jUJC4Y2.png

 

Quick edit: I shouldn't write replies while sleep deprived :| This is NOT deterministic, these are stochastic simulations, using 100 000 attack suites. Assumptions are:

1. Attack sequence is front, front, side

2. Target has one brace token

3. Intel Officer always targets brace

4. Target is assumed to not have ECM

5. Accuracies are accounted for only to the extent that they stop the target from using brace tokens

6. CF always adds a black die

7. CF on second round is used on side attack (why did I assume this? No really, why?)

8. Rerolls on black dice are done on all non hit+crit results

9. Rerolls on red dice (with Vader) are done on blanks only

10. Structural damage is not accounted for.

 

Edit #2: 

Here's a graph comparing Screed and Vader.

Additional assumption:

1. Screed is used on first front attack in the following way (descending priority):

a) if there's a blank red die and a black non hit+crit black die, to make a black die hit+crit

b) if there's two blank red dice, to turn a red die to a crit

2. Screed is used on the second front attack in the following way (descending priority):

a) if there's a blank red die and a black non hit+crit black die, to make a black die hit+crit

b) if there's two blank red dice, to turn a red die to a crit

3. Screed is used on the side attack in the following way (descending priority):

a) if there's two black dice which are not hit+crit, use the worst black die to set the second worst black die to hit+crit

 

JzOkhhY.png

 

Edit #3:

Approximation: Vader increases the "80% certainty threshold" by approximately 1 damage, compared to Screed.

 

Edit #4:
Running Vader and having concentrate fire on the second round gives about 80% certainty to do 17 damage. Assume worst case scenario, where we attack ships from whichever side they can get the most shield use, including redirects. That damage is still short of an MC80 or ISD, as long as there's no defensive enhancements which a) increase the number of hull available (e.g. Motti) or b) increase the number of shield points available (e.g. advanced projectors, redundant shields)

 

A VSD needs 17 damage (80%)

An Assault Frigate Mk II need 16 damage (90%).

Likely enough to be good bets.

 

An MC80 needs 20 damage (40%)

An ISD needs 21 damage (25%)

Not something to aim for, but long shots that may pay off very well.

 

Motti makes a VSD need 19 damage (55%) and and ISD 24 damage (<5%).

Edited by Malle

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RESURRECTION!!!!!

 

 

 

 

I threw a few more pics together this time about Squadrons! I also added this stuff to the 3rd post on the 1st page

 

 

a little bit on Squadrons:

 

I set up the threat range of each squadron next to each other for comparison. Threat range in this case is the Range that a squadron can attack with a Command, Simply the Speed of the Squad plus distance 1 again. the squads are arranged in to 2 groups with Bombers on the left and fighters on the right and both groups are arranged by order of longest range to shortest.

 

 

Rebel Squads:

Rebel%2Bfighters%2Bthreat%2Brange.jpg

 

 

 

First up the Rebel Squads, here we see why the A-wings are so popular giving a huge range advantage over the other squads we also can see why the B-wings are still king as the increase in range is for the Y-wing and Scuurg is minor.

 

 

 

Imperials:

 

Imperial%2BFighter%2Bthreat%2Brange%2Ban

 

(the thick Green line represents Corrupter activated speed 5 bombers range, the Lateral thin green line is distance 5 for reference)

 

 

 

on the imperial side we can see a much higher threat range across the board in general with a majority able to strike Beyond longrange and the squads on the far left demonstrating Extreme range with Rhymer is Insane with the Corruptor Bombers (green line on the left) going COMPLETELY OFF my chart. well past long range. We can also see why the yv-666 is somewhat of a red headed step child of imperial squads, being sooo SLOW in comparison. 

 

 

Wondering how many Interceptors (Tie int/ A-wings) it takes to effectively threaten the majority of the play area?

 

the following is a picture of a 6*3 play area with distance 3 from the player edges marked and distance 5 from all edges marked (note: the bottom is cut off slightly) the green half circles represent the threat range of the intercepters

interceptor%2Bthreat%2Brange.jpg

Anwser: 2

 

it takes 2 interceptors to threaten the entirety of the play area except for about Distnce 2 from the edges...

 

 

 

 

just to make sure you understand how Massive the threat range of the interceptors is:

 

 

java%2B2016-04-15%2B18-44-36-71.jpg

 

that is 18 yes EIGHTEEN Mc80's within the Threat range of 1 Tie Interceptors, and technically that is only like 60% of the Full threat range. if you do the full circle you can probably get about 25-30 Large bases in it. Amyway food for thought because I thought it was interesting 

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why didn't you do independence? I realize it would be over two turns but its still relevant. Great stuff though! Love all the visuals, really helps the b wing out being able to see the minor difference.

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why didn't you do independence? I realize it would be over two turns but its still relevant. Great stuff though! Love all the visuals, really helps the b wing out being able to see the minor difference.

more work, if I did independence I would Feel obligated to compare them to everything across 2 turns and wasn't sure how to Diagram that effectively I guess. Might add a picture for that later though

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4. Ackbar: Ackbar is basiaclly paying 38 points to increase threat range and is kinda insane when you look at how they are effected by him. lets look at each rebel ship except the neb-b and the Cr90 while under the influence of Calamari:

Mk2%2Bwith%2BAckbar.jpg

Mc30%2Bwith%2BAckbar.jpg

Mc80%2BAckbar.jpg

Wow, Ackbar has a REALLY big effect on threat ranges, And look at all that Red on the MC80! after looking at these even the most Skeptical can see why many feel Ackbar is op.

 

 

 

IMPERIAL BIAS DETECTED!

 

:D

 

I agree those Ackbar threat-ranges look over powered, but before every Screed-toting bucket-head APT-junkie gets free license to complain, I think it is worth offering corrected versions of the images. The below show the actual threat bands when the full card is taken into account, and paint a slightly different picture.

 

Assault Frigate:

 

Mk2%20with%20Ackbar_zpsfcjuw14h.jpg

 

 

MC30 Scout:

 

Mc30%20with%20Ackbar_zpsj6uc3p7c.jpg

 

MC80

 

Mc80%20Ackbar_zpskmdamw3f.jpg

 

 

 

A powerful upgrade, certainly, but don't be lulled into a false sense of security by Imperial Propaganda. The Empire knows the fleet's weakpoints and will attempt to exploit them.

 

ec693ce6f82b555e022413e678017bf8.jpg

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4. Ackbar: Ackbar is basiaclly paying 38 points to increase threat range and is kinda insane when you look at how they are effected by him. lets look at each rebel ship except the neb-b and the Cr90 while under the influence of Calamari:

Mk2%2Bwith%2BAckbar.jpg

Mc30%2Bwith%2BAckbar.jpg

Mc80%2BAckbar.jpg

Wow, Ackbar has a REALLY big effect on threat ranges, And look at all that Red on the MC80! after looking at these even the most Skeptical can see why many feel Ackbar is op.

 

 

 

IMPERIAL BIAS DETECTED!

 

:D

 

I agree those Ackbar threat-ranges look over powered, but before every Screed-toting bucket-head APT-junkie gets free license to complain, I think it is worth offering corrected versions of the images. The below show the actual threat bands when the full card is taken into account, and paint a slightly different picture.

 

Assault Frigate:

 

Mk2%20with%20Ackbar_zpsfcjuw14h.jpg

 

 

MC30 Scout:

 

Mc30%20with%20Ackbar_zpsj6uc3p7c.jpg

 

MC80

 

Mc80%20Ackbar_zpskmdamw3f.jpg

 

 

 

A powerful upgrade, certainly, but don't be lulled into a false sense of security by Imperial Propaganda. The Empire knows the fleet's weakpoints and will attempt to exploit them.

 

ec693ce6f82b555e022413e678017bf8.jpg

 

 

Another great thing to note: 

AFs really do have 2 attacks via gunnery team, and you can "visualize it" as two arcs, fine. 

 

but to give you the real illusion about mc30s (shrimps), you only get ONE attack: 

it basically looks the same technically, but you only get one attack, so pretend its only one arc.  paints a different picture eh?

 

Also ackbar and ackbar carrying ships are very very expensive.  you cant take 5 unless al cr90s, and at that point mon motha works better. 

at 4 you have no room for squadrons, and die immediately to any mass squadron list, which like everyone is runnning now.  

with 3, you can't really out activate anyone, and clonisher can really blow you up.  

 

also, rebels dont have a dedicated anti fighter set of squadrons (unlike Dengar Howl 2 ints).  So, its impossible to get a cheap group of AA.  at minimum you need 6 Awings to hold off 100 points of fighters for 2-3 turns, long enough for you to survive to do damage.  

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I love all the talk of OP, but missing the overall OP question. Yes, individual things are OP: Ryhmer; Mith, Howl and Soontir with their scatters and range, Akbar, Gladiator, X-17s, etc. However, is one side OP, that is the only question that counts. Are there enough viable builds to keep each side interesting and competitive? If you think that you don't have a reasonable 50/50 chance +\-5-8% playing either side than something is OP, but it isn't one thing...it is a server its of things. If the data reveals that both sides in tournaments playing against opposing factions have roughly the same odds at winning, then the game is strong. However, if the builds are so similar, then the game is not really strong either.

The key is looking at the data of fleets facing opposite factions. Are the Imperials more powerful than the Rebels, the opposite, or even?

I am glad clone trooper is using both analytics and illustrations. I wish some of the bloggers would use more of hard data and diagrams to make their cases, instead of just saying trust me and their gut reactions. I know they are experienced, but so are many of us and the data is what will help get us to the next level. This is the kind of stuff really worth advanced player's time. The rest is antidotal--cheap and easy--which is fine...in small bites for the advanced player. Obviously, the service the bloggers provide for the less initiated is helpful and useful for them so it is not like I am trashing their efforts. I am just saying it would be nice to have more of this type of stuff out there. Basically Clone, it is time for you to start your own blog.

Edited by AdmiralNelson

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4. Ackbar: Ackbar is basiaclly paying 38 points to increase threat range and is kinda insane when you look at how they are effected by him. lets look at each rebel ship except the neb-b and the Cr90 while under the influence of Calamari:Mk2%2Bwith%2BAckbar.jpgMc30%2Bwith%2BAckbar.jpgMc80%2BAckbar.jpg

Wow, Ackbar has a REALLY big effect on threat ranges, And look at all that Red on the MC80! after looking at these even the most Skeptical can see why many feel Ackbar is op.

 

 

IMPERIAL BIAS DETECTED!

 

:D

 

I agree those Ackbar threat-ranges look over powered, but before every Screed-toting bucket-head APT-junkie gets free license to complain, I think it is worth offering corrected versions of the images. The below show the actual threat bands when the full card is taken into account, and paint a slightly different picture.

 

Assault Frigate:

 

Mk2%20with%20Ackbar_zpsfcjuw14h.jpg

 

 

MC30 Scout:

 

Mc30%20with%20Ackbar_zpsj6uc3p7c.jpg

 

MC80

 

Mc80%20Ackbar_zpskmdamw3f.jpg

 

 

 

A powerful upgrade, certainly, but don't be lulled into a false sense of security by Imperial Propaganda. The Empire knows the fleet's weakpoints and will attempt to exploit them.

 

ec693ce6f82b555e022413e678017bf8.jpg

I do have to point that your post is well... Incorrect. Since the threat range is only effected by the Potential to shoot and Ackbar doesn't say "can only shoot out the sides" it offers a choice you "may" choose to use ackbar, therefore ackbar ships still threaten out the front

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I do have to point that your post is well... Incorrect. Since the threat range is only effected by the Potential to shoot and Ackbar doesn't say "can only shoot out the sides" it offers a choice you "may" choose to use ackbar, therefore ackbar ships still threaten out the front

 

Certainly, but the point I am making is that it can be either, but it can't be both the front and rear shot and the boosted side shot. It would be very easy to interpret the diagram as showing both Ackbar-boosted damage and the potential to do front and rear damage too.

 

But don't worry, I found a way to illustrate what you're saying in a single image:

 

 

akbarfrigate_zps0exp67rl.gif

 

 

 

:D

Edited by MattShadowlord

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but to give you the real illusion about mc30s (shrimps), you only get ONE attack: 

it basically looks the same technically, but you only get one attack, so pretend its only one arc.  paints a different picture eh?

I'm confused, in what way do you only get one attack with the MC30?

 

Things I can imagine you might be talking about:

 

Assuming Scouts with Ackbar and no Gunnery Teams and only threatening out one side - That's a loooong string of assumptions to make the claim that "MC30's only get one attack".  If you're taking the scout with Ackbar, you should probably be using Gunnery Teams.  If you're not, you should be flying them in such a way that you're maximizing their side arcs--ie, threatening out both sides whenever it's worth the risk to the ships.  In this case, they're no different than taking an AF2 without Gunnery Teams.

Assuming Torpedoes and how it's hard to get multiple shots due to short range - Practice forking.  Drop yourself in a spot to threaten more than one ship that's important to your adversary.  If he doesn't move one before you get to shoot, congrats, you got two brutal shots on him.  If he does move one before you get to shoot it, congrats, you've forced him to activate according to your terms, right into the trap you've forced him into by forcing him to activate that ship first.  You did set a trap to force him to activate into, right?

 

Slaved Turrets - Why did you take these on an MC30?  Or anything at all ever?

Edited by Ardaedhel

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hey salvation weeks with slaved turrets!!! But that's it lol

 

Not to derail the conversation, but... I hate ST even on Salvation.  Not only are you denying yourself the possibility of Advanced Gunnery, but also anti-squadron shots and double-arcs.  Every game I've played with Salv, I've gotten at least one crucial double-arc with it.

All that aside, though... TRC just straight up adds more damage than ST.

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All that aside, though... TRC just straight up adds more damage than ST.

 

At a cost though; defence tokens don't come free, and Nebs do like the evade to help keep some of the shots off their sides. Personally I usually put Raymus on Salvation for the CF+CF Token instead of TRC, but that may be because I have very little faith in Neb's durability :D

Back on the original topic, since I know my post above was a little tongue-in-cheek, I should mention this Threat Range thread is terrific and I think it's adding to the body of knowledge about the game.

Very good work Clontroper5.

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Now we just need to color in the dual arc lines to MURDER RED (and sometimes other colors).

 

...because gunnery teams are teaching us bad tactics, according to the Bigg's Center For Kids Who Can't Dual-Arc Real Good And Wanna Learn To Do Other Stuff Good Too.

 

 

What is this?  A POST FOR ANTS?

 

s9teXvU.gif

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