# Lets Analyse Threat Range

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I am pretty sure that 4 red and 4 blue is average 7 damage. . . Hmmmm that is usually me though. . .

6 actually

.75x8=6

but it has a very good chance of having an acuracy

I'm surprised that Lyraeus would suggest 7. I come to it by a different calculation than clontroper5, but I agree on 6 average damage.

I'm surprised by Lyraeus' calculation, because I know he adheres to the 80-20 rule. Going by that rule, however, you should not count on more than 5 damage from 4 red + 4 blue at <long range. The plurality of results is 6 damage (which you should expect only 24.6% of the time), and you can count on at least 6 damage only 66% of the time (ie. less than 80%).

I was not going mathematically, I was going by real world use. My ISD's with Vader rarely roll less than 8 damage after the reroll.

Okay, but I didn't think we were factoring Vader into the equation.

Anyway, I did run the probabilities on the Imperial arcs, and I have to dispute at least one of clontroper5's assessments.

Between Vic I and Vic II. While the criticals and accuracies will obviously differ, there is such a marginal difference between the expected raw damage output of R³Bl³ (3 red and 3 blue) and R³Bk³ (3 red and 3 black) that I would not categorize the danger zone of the Vic I's close range and the Vic II's close/medium front arc any differently from one another. Both are what I would call 4(5) - meaning 4 reliable damage, 5 expected - 5 being the average, and 4 being what you can count on with a 80% confidence level*. Therefore, using his schema, I would say that both the VicI close range and the VicII close/medium range would be orange, rather than the former red and the latter orange.

To give you the numbers:

R³Bl³                              R³Bk³

0    0.001   1.000            0    0.001   1.000

1    0.011   0.999            1    0.008   0.999

2    0.050   0.988            2    0.037   0.991

3    0.140   0.939            3    0.101   0.954

4    0.252   0.799            4    0.183   0.852

5    0.279   0.547            5    0.232   0.669

6    0.184   0.268            6    0.210   0.437

7    0.069   0.084            7    0.137   0.227

8    0.014   0.015            8    0.064   0.090

9    0.001   0.001            9    0.021   0.026

10    0.004   0.005

11    0.001   0.001

12    0.000   0.000

The first column on both sets gives you the possible raw damage output. The second column the probability of each of those outcomes, and the third column the declining cumulative probability of 'at least' that much damage.

R³Bl³ is not going to give you the same upper range as R³Bk³ is going to, and it's going to be a smidge better on average, but you can see that the plurality is still 5 expected damage and you're 80% certain to get at least 4 damage on R³Bl³, and 85% on R³Bk³.

That smidge is not enough to matter in my book.

Also, because R1H4 makes a great point, I think, that you shouldn't base your decisions on expected damage, but on reliable damage - ie. that third column, where you can count on 4 damage at a  80%/85% confidence level.

*I realize that 'confidence level' refers to the probability that a sample reflects the true distribution of a given population. Also, I think that when R1H4 is talking about the 'Pareto principle' of 80-20, that he is skewing what Pareto meant by it. But, I'm quite fine with bastardizing the terms to suit our purposes.

Edited by Mikael Hasselstein

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Good points, but I still feel the Victory-1s front arc needs to be treated as more damaging then the Vic-2 because it has +.75 average damage which Is significant when you have 4-5 average damage and the BIG point is +3 Potential damage.

Another point in favor of the Vic-1 red arc is that it is common for them to be equipped with ordinance while I rarely see Vic-2s with Damaging upgrades

And it is all rather abstract and not scientific/mathematical anyway, I actually retroactively assigned a number value to it.

One last point, I briefly mentioned this in the OP but the threat level is based on how likely your Corvette, meaning CR90 or Raider class corvette, is to survive in that arc. And while it doesn't happen a lot I have seen many a corvette get killed in one shot by a VIC-1, even an unupgraded one. By contrast I have never once seen a VIC-2 Kill a Corvette in 1 Shot. Now I know it's possible but 6 damage+ an accuracy is hard to get for a VIC 2 without lots of modifiers

Edited by clontroper5

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Well, it's your analysis, my friend. Feel free to estimate it how you wish. I'm just giving you the numbers using a probability distribution.

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To give you the numbers:

R³Bl³                              R³Bk³

0    0.001   1.000            0    0.001   1.000

1    0.011   0.999            1    0.008   0.999

2    0.050   0.988            2    0.037   0.991

3  ... ... ...

If you used a spreadsheet to do those calculations, I would be turbo-grateful if you could share it...

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YOU ARE SO FREAKING AWESOME OH MY GOODALKSJDFLNAKSNDFLA.  WOW THIS IS INCREDIBLE.  BEST POST IN THE HISTORY OF ARMADA

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Thank you for this analysis.

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Hmmm this came to me last night but, this allows players to assess if it is a good idea to slow to 0 or not.

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Really good stuff Clon, very interesting read.

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Hmmm I will be making a video on this for the topic of when to slow down to 0.

Thank you clontroper5 for all of this. It will make my video easier to make.

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Hmmm I will be making a video on this for the topic of when to slow down to 0.

Thank you clontroper5 for all of this. It will make my video easier to make.

no problem! Feel free to use any of my pictures as well

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Hmmm I will be making a video on this for the topic of when to slow down to 0.

Thank you clontroper5 for all of this. It will make my video easier to make.

no problem! Feel free to use any of my pictures as well
I was just going to take them and put your name on each of them. . . but now I guess just one in the title and credits page will work ~_^

Thank you!

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To give you the numbers:

R³Bl³                              R³Bk³

0    0.001   1.000            0    0.001   1.000

1    0.011   0.999            1    0.008   0.999

2    0.050   0.988            2    0.037   0.991

3  ... ... ...

If you used a spreadsheet to do those calculations, I would be turbo-grateful if you could share it...

I did, but I did not really format it in such a way that it would be easy to use by other people. If you can PM me with your email address, I can send it along, however.

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Okay, seriously though. I finally finished reading and went through your multiship overlay.  Holy cow.  This is incredible knowledge, and then you even upp'ed it one more time with real life application.  This is absolutely incredible.

I'm seriously.  I think you've made literally the most influential, educational post in the history of this game.

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Easily the best thread on the forums.  Well done Clon -- this and your tourney victory

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Nah this thread is garbage (it's not, of course, but Clon has received way too much love lately. We need to start tough love folks. Clon is going to get a big Clon head)

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Clon is going to get a big Clon head

its to late... for me...

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Clon, I'd just like to point out that Corellian Corvette and I have preemptively liked the two posts you have reserved in this thread.

So, you know, if you have other stuff to add, please feel free... now that you're done curbstomping vassal.

Edited by Rythbryt

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Clon, I'd just like to point out that Corellian Corvette and I have preemptively liked the two posts you have reserved in this thread.

So, you know, if you have other stuff to add, please feel free... now that you're done curbstomping vassal.

lol, yea I noticed that.

Still not sure what I want to add there though, I just wasn't sure how many pics I could put in each post so I reserved a bunch.

Any suggestions?

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What about any thoughts on how to use ISDs and VSDs effectively in this meta?  And their threat zones as ships.

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What about any thoughts on how to use ISDs and VSDs effectively in this meta?  And their threat zones as ships.

I use ISD's effectively all the time.

Any suggestions?

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What about any thoughts on how to use ISDs and VSDs effectively in this meta?  And their threat zones as ships.

My 2cents on that specific topic :

Both the ISD and the VSD have the big weakness of being nimbled on by multiple attacks that do 1-2-3 damage at a time. So, I would recommend avoiding situations where you can allow the opponent to focus these kinds of attacks on a ship. I wouldn't overestimate the ISD's tank as well : after all, it's only got 2 more shields and 3 more hull than a Victory which is nice for sure but by no means a super strong upgrade. What this means is that it takes 2 extra small attacks or one extra big attack.

Due to their short threat range, I always use their full compliment of squadrons, to help with damage projection without having to rush forward and expose themselves, while giving the capability to thin out the numerous squadron attacks which are going to be annoying for them.

Also, due to their short threat range, I think it's better to "play catch" with them, rather than rushing in, even with a I-class. Positioning on an intercept course in the general position where the opponent is going to go to force his hand of either burning away (and losing efficiency due to less optimal arcs/out of range).

Finally, you have to dillute the enemy shots by offering tempting targets. I think this is paramount at 400 points, where it's super easy to throw so many attacks on a single ship that it will get destroyed regardless of its size.

To be fair, I really feel the game was balanced with 300 points in mind. 400 adds so much firepower on both sides that larger ships really have lost the advantage they could have had at 300 points.

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Urgh.  I'm tired of feeling like I have a very low margin for error with ISDs and Imperial ships.  I know its doable.  But whenever I load a ISD into the builder and then think... "hey what's next", I get this defeated air.

Sorry, I'm just ranting now, but I think part of my problem is also that I'm only able to get an Armada game once every 2 months or so.  And my attempts to play against random people at the stores have been marginally on the sour side.

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Urgh.  I'm tired of feeling like I have a very low margin for error with ISDs and Imperial ships.  I know its doable.  But whenever I load a ISD into the builder and then think... "hey what's next", I get this defeated air.

Sorry, I'm just ranting now, but I think part of my problem is also that I'm only able to get an Armada game once every 2 months or so.  And my attempts to play against random people at the stores have been marginally on the sour side.

Build your ISD to be a tank and it's less of an issue. I use Motti to add those extra 3 HP which WILL come in handy, then add your ECMs and XI7s, maybe SW7s as well, and now any shot you make is going to have an impact. You WILL get shot, but the Imperial can take it and then some. Command a Fireball and you have malleable threat ranges, add two raiders and you have pickets and distractions.

Really, with an Imperial you want to ask - am I flying one or two? Flying one there are ways to support it, flying two you're more or less relying on squad assistance, and three you're a Motti Madman.

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I'm guessing one of those reserved posts is squadrons?

Because god **** if that isn't an obscence threat range, esp with rhymer

Incidentally, isd-1 led fireballs have done very well locally if you want some inspiration there. That's Ozzy hangars comma with rhymer dengar and firesprays

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