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Rauhughes

The Xwing open series

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So I was looking at the likely outcome round by round following the Swiss pairings to see what number of players are likely to make day two, and can the players who made it on a 4-2 record seriously compete for a top 8 spot on day two. I'm basing this all on a 512 player event, and any reference to day two is reference to players making the 18 point cut after six rounds.

By my (basic) math after six rounds on day 1, draws withstanding, we should have;

6 - 0 8 players

5 - 1 48 players

4 - 2 120 players

Even with six modified wins, the 6-0 players all go through. The 5-1 players will go trough unless they had more than 3 modified wins. For arguments sake I'm going to say that's fairly unlikely so let's put them all through too. For the 4 - 2 players, anything more than one modified win puts you out. I can't find any data on what % of wins are modified wins at competitive events, so I'm going to kick 10 of them players out for having two modified wins or a draw in there.

That's about (we're getting wishey-washy here) 166 players going through to day two. That's a pretty big field. As records carry on and ignoring draws again we would have after 3 more rounds of Swiss

9 - 0 1 player

8 - 1 9 players (rounding up for maximum amount of people in this position)

7 - 2 35 players (same principle as above)

Now barring any madness like 4+ modified wins the chances of going through with only seven wins seems remote, as even if only 8 players go 8 - 1 your dependant on them having picked up at least two modified wins whilst getting none yourself, and dependant on no one going 7 - 1 - 1 and guaranteeing themselves the bonus place if a 8-1 has picked up a bunch of modified. The. You'll need to have the best MOV of the 35 or so 7-2 players. This means the 110 or So people going in at 4-2 are really competing for one may two spaces that may never actually materialise.

Does this seem about correct to anyone with better understanding of these things than me? And how much of an impact are draws likely to have if any?

Going to a 2 day event means you're likely going to miss out on the hanger bay challenges to participate in the main event on day two, so it'd be good to know what kind of day 1 record would need consideration into to dropping to enjoy some other X-wing fun.

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Not according to the briefing.

The top 8 players by overall record will then be placed in a single-elimination bracket.

Well I'll be, good to know. Completely overlooked that, but then again their info pages are terribly hard to navigate for the full info. I will be attending and this will make me pay a bit more attention that first day. Thanks for the heads up!

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The Hangar Bay side event is on Friday which is the same day as the second first round. The second round that everyone needs 18 match points for is on Saturday.

 

Is it? I'm pretty sure the event is on the 4-5th of June which is Saturday and Sunday. According to the UK Games Expo page the hangar bay event is for those who do not make it to round 2 on the Sunday:

 

Of the 512 players those scoring 18 or more tournament points will progress to the final on Sunday 5th June. These players will then play 3 more rounds. to decide on a final 8 players who play sunday afternoon for the title.

On the Sunday we will offer at least one side tournament utilizing the new Hangar Bay format for those players who do not progress. Each side tournament is 3 rounds of Swiss play, with players earning prizes for each round that they win.

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Sorry, I'm talking about the uk open but it really applies to any open where the initial six rounds of Swiss is played out in one heat in one day. For the US event, and others where the 512 player pot is split into 2 flights of 256 over a three days I imagine you will be able to participate in hanger events on whichever day your not playing in the main event. Two day event attendees are unlikely to get that privilege.

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Nah, if you are doing Friday as the main day, unless you don't make the cut you can't do the hangar bay, people going Thursday (like myself) will be able to do 1, possibly 2. The hangar bay will be done at the same time as the 2nd day first cut, and the 3rd day during finals.

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This is assuming 512 unique players show up.  X-Wing's popularity just keeps growing, but I think hitting the 512 cap is unlikely.  I'd love to be proved wrong!

 

Assuming you get a smaller number, like 350, means some of the 7-2s make it in.  Of course, you'd need to be all full wins, and high MOV.  It's likely that someone who got in at 18 points into day 2 is already mathematically eliminated from top 8 contention.

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Interesting that they doing the tournament this way.

 

Seems kind of weird that players will get to participate in a second day of tourney-ing when they have no chance of making the Elimination Rounds. An extra round of Swiss or larger Elimination bracket (Top 16) would certainly help alleviate some of this issue :P

 

Obviously, just going undefeated is the easiest path to victory :P

 

Edit:

I re-tract some of my previous statements. Thinking about it, the tournament is really a 512 person, 9 round tournament.

 

At 9 rounds with 512 people (assuming max), there is 1 player at 9-0 and 9 players at 8-1. Assuming they continue the tournament and match players based on similar records for the remaining 3 rounds, then this works out to be an acceptable tournament setting, imo, where only a single 1 loss player doesn't make it, instead of a large # of players missing the cut due to a tie breaker. To accommodate the 36 potential 7-2 players after 9 rounds starting with max players, the cut would have to be like top 48.

Edited by phild0

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This is assuming 512 unique players show up.  X-Wing's popularity just keeps growing, but I think hitting the 512 cap is unlikely.  I'd love to be proved wrong!

 

Assuming you get a smaller number, like 350, means some of the 7-2s make it in.  Of course, you'd need to be all full wins, and high MOV.  It's likely that someone who got in at 18 points into day 2 is already mathematically eliminated from top 8 contention.

330 tickets sold to the U.K. Event since tickets went on sale Friday 5th Feb. Give there's 4 months till the even if say there's a fair chance it will sell out. Viva la X-Wing!!

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