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Rouge Five

Beginners Luck

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So I have been teaching my nephews X-Wing. Got the oldest hooked and now he has his own pieces. Younger ones are now interested. I played with one nephew last night using the original core. He flew the X-Wing. He lined up on my TIE, his first shot at range 3 was three hits. I rolled all blanks on defense. His first shot of his first game one shotted my TIE. Needless to say, he likes the game now :-).

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Many people dislike the "luck" element in x wing. I disagree. You can be "Lucky" or "unlucky" one day. But after 100 games it is a 52/48. Dices are important. I played wargames 35+ years. And in the long term, luck is neutral.

Of course we moan when rolling 5 red to finish a Decimator and roll nothing, but we don't say "how lucky I am " when rolling 4 evades...

And children...8-10 years old kids can wide your mind because they do the unexpected. Many gamers are 40+, cautious people. From time to time selecting a weird move is refreshing. One milimeter short, victory and male gestures. One milimeter long and Disaster. But you will pack your ships and return home, win or loose.

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Beginners luck happens in all games of chance - and is by far the best way to get a new player hooked :P

I got my 14 year old daughter to try Xwing. We each got a ship and she ended up one-shotting me with a great roll versus my blanks. After it was over, she said she still doesnt want to play, but holds that one victory over my head. In fact, after I played a game and beat one of our guys that is a Regional champ and Top 16 Worlds player, she staked the claim that she must be up there with the Top 15.

Edited by USCGrad90

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Beginners luck happens in all games of chance - and is by far the best way to get a new player hooked :P

I got my 14 year old daughter to try Xwing. We each got a ship and she ended up one-shotting me with a great roll versus my blanks. After it was over, she said she still doesnt want to play, but holds that one victory over my head. In fact, after I played a game and beat one of our guys that is a Regional champ and Top 16 Worlds player, she staked the claim that she must be up there with the Top 15.

That's why no one likes teenagers.

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Many people dislike the "luck" element in x wing. I disagree. You can be "Lucky" or "unlucky" one day. But after 100 games it is a 52/48. Dices are important. I played wargames 35+ years. And in the long term, luck is neutral.

While I agree with what you wrote, there is a problem:

Not all moments are of equal importance. Consider:

If you one-shot somwbody's Soontir in a friendly but get your own Soontir one shotted in the final of Worlds, would you feel luck was neutral? I wouldn't.

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would you feel luck was neutral? I wouldn't.

In my experience, there is no such thing as luck.

But yes I would. Luck has nothing to do with it, it's all about probabilities and all you can do is stack the odds in your favor as much as possible, that and accept that sometimes the unlikely will in fact happen.

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While I am competitive and complain when I get blanks or canceled, I do love the dice element of the game. I imagine a jink, flip, roll, etc... As the dice are rolled. Unless I am attacking with the Empire and roll blanks, then I remember, "Only Imperial Stormtroopers are this precise."

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would you feel luck was neutral? I wouldn't.

In my experience, there is no such thing as luck.But yes I would. Luck has nothing to do with it, it's all about probabilities and all you can do is stack the odds in your favor as much as possible, that and accept that sometimes the unlikely will in fact happen.
What you say is true BUT... When the unlikely happens, like coming up with the only red results you need vs the only green results that guarantee a kill (2.38%) at that time and in that space, is luck. The Hail Mary shot. Or Serendipity. Or living good. What ever you want to call it. That is still a lucky roll. You beat the odds.

Edit: Rechecked calculation. Odds were 2.38%

Edited by Stoneface

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You beat the odds.

You never beat the odds because odds are it will happen at some point, it just may take a very long time.

If you flip a coin, sooner or later you'll get heads or tails twice. You haven't beaten the odds, because odds are that sooner or later you'll get the same result twice.

If you want to define luck as anytime something unlikely but good happens, then sure there's such a thing as luck.

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You beat the odds.

You never beat the odds because odds are it will happen at some point, it just may take a very long time.If you flip a coin, sooner or later you'll get heads or tails twice. You haven't beaten the odds, because odds are that sooner or later you'll get the same result twice.If you want to define luck as anytime something unlikely but good happens, then sure there's such a thing as luck.

I disagree with you on beating the odds. That set of peculiar set circumstances where a low probability outcome is needed for a specific result NOW. In your example of the coin toss, every single toss has 50% chance of a head result. It doesn't matter if it's the first or the 1000th. It's still 50%. But tossing four heads in a row drops that to 6.25%.

The example I gave was when my badly flown Interceptor was targeted by a Z at range 3, through the rock it was sitting on. No evade or focus tokens and having been wacked by the rock, down to 2 health, rolling 5 greens vs 2 red dice. The Z had a 1 in 4 chance of rolling 2 damage. I had 5 tries to roll at least 1 evade. The outcome that killed me, 2 hits and no evades, was the only one that could've killed me. Luck was in the timing that, that 1 particular result was rolled then and there. But my opponent did beat the odds. Anything but that Death roll would've come up 97.62% of the time. Putting it in round numbers, after 10,000 throws of those 7 dice you could expect around 238 of the needed result.

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As a follow up, my oldest nephew came over to play with one of my friends I was introducing to the game. After 7 hours of game play, my friend is now hooked and has ordered enough to fly Rebels with variations. In the course of a few weeks I have gone from struggling to get people to play to having a gaming community!

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