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Need math help regarding Hwk vs Y-wing.

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How tough is a Hwk-290 with numerous focus tokens (because of title) compared to a Y-wing? I´m asking because I want to get a rough idea how much endurance loss there is going from quad Y-TLT to a 3 Y-TLT plus a Hwk-TLT. I´m leaving the dials out for now, I know the Y-wing flies better. The idea is to try Roark plus 3 Ys instead of quad PS2 Ys.

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not much math help from me, but generaly the Y is vastly preferred because its dial isn't made of suck

 

the most dramatic difference has to be the 3-bank, the longest range displacement available to the Y and the one I find myself using constantly with TLTs, which is Red on the HWK

 

this means that HWKs are much harder to keep away from opponents than Ys, and therefore much harder to use as TLTs without someone screening them. So, in the case of Roark + 3 Ys, it should be a-okay (Roark has huge range on his ability; a bunch of Ys to cover him). Either way, his durability is irrelevant; you're getting him for PS 12.

 

spammed TLT HWKs, though, seems doomed to failure

 

 

and yes, green dice suck

Edited by ficklegreendice

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Not sure on the math, but the Hwk is definitely more fragile than the Y even assuming average dice rolls. That said they're not that bad off.

 

3 TLT Ys + Roark or Torkil is/should be at least as competitive as the standard 4. Fly in formation with the Hwk for a bit (I like more of a train) then break when the Hwk dies or you're getting too close. It works a treat.

Edited by GreatMazinkaiser

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I could do the math for you, but to stay simple, the green dice have a 50% chance to fail, meaning that on the average the 2 Agility effectively soaks up 1 Damage per throw.
The Y-Wing has 2 Shields and 1 Hull more than the HWK, whilst also having one Attack more.

This build could be usefull, to make sure another ship is destroyed before it can attack, but I prefer to have it destroyed last round, which is provided by more attack dice.

I would recommend you to try it out if you have the ships 

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The real problem is that a stack of focus tokens will indeed leave a HWK nicely durable... but to get a stack of focus tokens costs 3, usually 6 points over basic hull cost. It might be tougher (by a little bit, and depending on what's shooting at you - you still melt to HLC, even if you laugh at 2-attack shots), but you're considerably more expensive than the Y-wing competition.

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The real problem is that a stack of focus tokens will indeed leave a HWK nicely durable... but to get a stack of focus tokens costs 3, usually 6 points over basic hull cost. It might be tougher (by a little bit, and depending on what's shooting at you - you still melt to HLC, even if you laugh at 2-attack shots), but you're considerably more expensive than the Y-wing competition.

Tlt recspec spice runner/rebel operative is 25pts. Agromech tlt thug is 26. The lesser unhinged version is 25.

Gold tlt with an R2 is 25, with targeting astromech is 26.

So the hwk is the same as or cheaper than a y-wing as a tlt platform

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If you want to fly Roark and 3 ywing all tlt. Give one r3a2 and btl title, and give Roark Nien Nunb. The 4 forward is life saving. When attacking twice you can't slow roll long enough to get the 2 to 3 focuses you'll need a round. I've been using recon torkil and palob with tlt and have had alot of success. I'd rather take two every round rather than trying to build up enough before the shooting starts. The biggest difference between thugs and golds is unhinged and r3a2. If you not running r3a2 on a tlt gold you should be. This will more than make up for the recon on Roark. Best of luck to you I'm still working on a Roark Kyle tlt list but until I can fly Choppers Ghost with them I'm kinda stuck, Garven r5p9 and a Bandit I was looking at for focus passing all around.

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Hawk 290 only real plus is Kyal Katarn he can pass a focus to his squad mate, the Moldy Crow lets him keep focus tokens at the end of the round, and when he has a recon specialist as a crew member he gets an extra focus token when he performs a focus as and action. ... for squads of B-wings which are alway's stressed he can be a great asset. As for the Hawk 290 as a fighter... it isn't... the Y-wing does a much better job at holding it's own. higher armor and shields it has 8 hit points rivaling the B-wing. with BTL it can fire primary and secondary weapons in one engagement. No crew spot though... which the Hawk has. I don't think the Hawk can replace the Y-wing as a fighter and though the K-wing does most things that the Hawk 290 can do and is a lot tougher with 9 total hit points can carry bombs, missiles, torps, a crew and turret and is really expensive... though it doesn't have Kyal Katarn as a pilot and cannot share focus tokens.... It comes down to what purpose you are using it for... as a fighter that could go toe to toe with the Ties, I'd stick to Y-wings... they aren't the best but they are tanks that can absorb a lot of punishment. The Kyal Katarn Hwk for focus factory, the K-wing for awesome heavy weapons platform.

Edited by Dej2

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The turret isn't the strong point of the HWK.

It's the crew- and that's why the Y-Wing isn't getting crew any time soon. It'd completely retire the HWK. Like, forever. And ever.

K-wing already did that.

 

Because Tactician\Recon+tlt already costs a pretty penny, and with that in mind, cost of HWK and K aren't that greatly different.

 

And then you see it's more durable. and can SLAAAAAAAAAAAAAM

and has nicer dial.

???

HWK is dead by K-wing hands. it's use is only for special abilities as buffers\debuffers

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The turret isn't the strong point of the HWK.

It's the crew- and that's why the Y-Wing isn't getting crew any time soon. It'd completely retire the HWK. Like, forever. And ever.

K-wing already did that.

 

Because Tactician\Recon+tlt already costs a pretty penny, and with that in mind, cost of HWK and K aren't that greatly different.

 

And then you see it's more durable. and can SLAAAAAAAAAAAAAM

and has nicer dial.

???

HWK is dead by K-wing hands. it's use is only for special abilities as buffers\debuffers

 

Wrong, it is alive and kicking. Just yesterday I used two of them with Tacticians and TLTs. It is a challenge, but it really helps with your dial. I didn't really put stress on my opponent after the initial pass, but that didn't matter because between a Stresshog and my ShockHWKs (may I introduce that? I like it.) my opponents ships were hopeless to ever clear those stacks again.

 

Ususally you should use a Y-Wing. It is more durable and reliable with a better dial. The HWK is preferable if you want to keep it cheap (those 2 points are pretty big sometimes) or you want a way to combo crew with TLT for <= 25 points, which is significant as it broadens your options immensly. Here are some lists where the HWK has more of a place (mostly panic attack variants):

This is a very narrow set of lists that only puts Tacticians on the HWKs, but you can clearly see that they are only worth it when you want to do something specific.

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How tough is a Hwk-290 with numerous focus tokens (because of title) compared to a Y-wing? I´m asking because I want to get a rough idea how much endurance loss there is going from quad Y-TLT to a 3 Y-TLT plus a Hwk-TLT. I´m leaving the dials out for now, I know the Y-wing flies better. The idea is to try Roark plus 3 Ys instead of quad PS2 Ys.

 

Honestly, In a 4 TLT list like this (1-Hwk, 3-Y's) it will be better to run Scum.  Torkhil will give you a much greater return on investment since it is similar to giving all your pilots PS-12.  Not to mention, the Scum TLT-Y's have the option to take unhinged, so they become much for maneuverable.

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The main advantage to using HWKs is that people are convinced they are trash. They will catch people off guard more often than not, especially the named ones. Hell, if MoV wasn't a thing I'd run nothing but Han/Dash and a Moldy Crow.

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There is no straight out math answer without the context, except the following: a green dice has an average of 3/8 of an evade unmodded, 5/8 with a focus.

 

Assuming an endless supply of focuses, a Hawk would survive well against a lot of incoming 2 dice attacks (swarm).  2 IGs with HLC, FCS and crackshot?  You may end up regretting not having those extra hull / shields on the first pass.

 

Suffice it to say that a Hawk survives just about as well as an X-Wing (while being slightly more vulnerable to crits).  Depending on the dice gods, you may end up lasting a lot longer than a Y-Wing, or fall quickly.  No garanties :)

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I have old numbers for durability here:

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/128417-mathwing-comprehensive-ship-jousting-values-and-more/#entry1356092

 

Normalized to a TIE Fighter or Z-95, durability values are:

Y-wing: 1.397

HWK: 1.178

 

Using newer numbers and an updated method that I haven't published, the normalized durability values are:

Y-wing + TLT: 1.392

HWK + TLT: 1.158

 

(Basically the same)

 

The Y-wing is without a doubt more durable.

  

 

OP, I ran some simulations, here are the results:

 

Focused Hawk - 5 Health

Survives 9.6 Unmodified 3-Dice attacks at range 2.

 

Unfocused Y - 8 Health

Survives 7.2 unmodified, 3-Dice attacks at range 2.

 

 

 

That makes the focus hawk more surviveable than a Y wing...

 

 

 

You should do an apples to apples comparison, and either give both the defenders focus, or neither. The attacker never having focus on offense is also not a reasonable assumption, but it is a starting point.

 

Also, your numbers are off, you should check your simulation.

 

After 9 attacks, a 5HP 2AGI ship with 1 focus will have a 82.6% chance of being destroyed.

After 7 attacks, a 8HP 1AGI ship with 0 focus will have a 60.75% chance of being destroyed.

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The real problem is that a stack of focus tokens will indeed leave a HWK nicely durable... but to get a stack of focus tokens costs 3, usually 6 points over basic hull cost. It might be tougher (by a little bit, and depending on what's shooting at you - you still melt to HLC, even if you laugh at 2-attack shots), but you're considerably more expensive than the Y-wing competition.

 

I understand the appeal of Recon Specialist. But, I have found just the title is enough to get a decent amount of tokens for an engagement. 

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I have old numbers for durability here:

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/128417-mathwing-comprehensive-ship-jousting-values-and-more/#entry1356092

 

Normalized to a TIE Fighter or Z-95, durability values are:

Y-wing: 1.397

HWK: 1.178

 

Using newer numbers and an updated method that I haven't published, the normalized durability values are:

Y-wing + TLT: 1.392

HWK + TLT: 1.158

 

(Basically the same)

 

The Y-wing is without a doubt more durable.

  

 

OP, I ran some simulations, here are the results:

 

Focused Hawk - 5 Health

Survives 9.6 Unmodified 3-Dice attacks at range 2.

 

Unfocused Y - 8 Health

Survives 7.2 unmodified, 3-Dice attacks at range 2.

 

 

 

That makes the focus hawk more surviveable than a Y wing...

 

 

 

You should do an apples to apples comparison, and either give both the defenders focus, or neither. The attacker never having focus on offense is also not a reasonable assumption, but it is a starting point.

 

Also, your numbers are off, you should check your simulation.

 

After 9 attacks, a 5HP 2AGI ship with 1 focus will have a 82.6% chance of being destroyed.

After 7 attacks, a 8HP 1AGI ship with 0 focus will have a 60.75% chance of being destroyed.

 

OP asked for comparing a Focused HWK to an unfocused Y, and so I did.

 

Logic behind my calculations, see here: https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/195599-the-value-of-green-dice-vs-health/#entry1930281

 

Also, if anyone wants to see my Java code, I can provide!

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OP asked for comparing a Focused HWK to an unfocused Y, and so I did.

 

Logic behind my calculations, see here: https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/195599-the-value-of-green-dice-vs-health/#entry1930281

 

Also, if anyone wants to see my Java code, I can provide!

 

 

Ah, I missed him asking about a different action economy on the two ships. In that case the OP should compare apples to apples. For real-world performance against a variety of attacks and action scenarios the Y-wing is more durable.

 

The 82.6% and 60.75% numbers quoted above are the exact probabilities for 9 attacks and 7 attacks respectively. It's not a Monte Carlo simulation, I brute forced all possible outcomes. (Incidentally this takes orders of magnitude less time than running 10,000 iterations of simulation).

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OP asked for comparing a Focused HWK to an unfocused Y, and so I did.

 

Logic behind my calculations, see here: https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/195599-the-value-of-green-dice-vs-health/#entry1930281

 

Also, if anyone wants to see my Java code, I can provide!

 

 

Ah, I missed him asking about a different action economy on the two ships. In that case the OP should compare apples to apples. For real-world performance against a variety of attacks and action scenarios the Y-wing is more durable.

 

The 82.6% and 60.75% numbers quoted above are the exact probabilities for 9 attacks and 7 attacks respectively. It's not a Monte Carlo simulation, I brute forced all possible outcomes. (Incidentally this takes orders of magnitude less time than running 10,000 iterations of simulation).

 

 

I don't know what to tell you... I am not differing between hits and crits or hull and shields, but overall, if you just sit there and roll dice (which my simulation did), then those are the results.  

 

My simulation essentially rolls red, rolls green, calculates damage, reduces health.  When health gets to zero (or negative), the ship is considered destroyed and the number of attacks is recorded. Repeat 10,000 times and get an average, and bam, results.    A little more specifically, the hawk dies on the 9.6th attack (sometimes ninth, more likely tenth).  The Y dies on the 7.2nd attack.

 

The distribution is going to look different for the hawk and y, and the mean is not going to equal the median. I could add that functionality if people really, really want.

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It's possible that we are just looking at it differently. I would have to recalculate the probability density function for 1:N attacks separately and plot the distribution for each # of attacks. I only looked at 7 and 9 specifically, and picked off the resulting cumulative density function.

Edited by MajorJuggler

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