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keyboardr

TLT by the numbers

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I was doing some statistics on TLT vs just a normal 3 dice or 4 dice attack and came back with some interesting numbers. It's long been thought that TLTs were disproportionately effective against low agility ships (e.g. Decimator). From what I'm seeing, it looks like the reverse is true and only just slightly. Essentially, the number of evade dice being thrown doesn't really change its damage output compared to a normal 3 dice attack.

 

Defense Dice | Mean Damage | Equivalent Attack Dice

      0      |     1.75    |     3.50

      1      |     1.47    |     3.62

      2      |     1.19    |     3.67

      3      |     0.93    |     3.67

      4      |     0.72    |     3.66

      5      |     0.54    |     3.64

      6      |     0.40    |     3.62

 

What does change, however, is the Hit % (i.e. the chance you'll do any damage at all).

 

Defense Dice |     Hit %   | Equivalent Attack Dice

      0      |    98.44%   |     4.75

      1      |    92.95%   |     4.78

      2      |    83.50%   |     4.74

      3      |    71.52%   |     4.65

      4      |    58.76%   |     4.55

      5      |    46.62%   |     4.44

      6      |    35.95%   |     4.33

 

TL;DR: unless your opponent only has one hull left or has more focus tokens than you (or once per turn effects), you're better off with a 4 dice attack than TLT. Also, your opponent's agility value doesn't change your TLT's advantage over a 3 dice attack.

 

Full data set available at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PgePFqFcd7puTcN9RRecyyCvJWWAhvIb1Z4Npwucf30/edit?usp=sharing

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Those are some good points. However, it's also worth noting that TLT is a secondary weapon, so at Range 3 it's dealing with one less defense die than a primary attack would. E.G. at Range 3 against something with 0 natural defense dice, TLT is equivalent to 3.62 primary attack dice (the next row down on your table) instead of 3.5.

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Those are some good points. However, it's also worth noting that TLT is a secondary weapon, so at Range 3 it's dealing with one less defense die than a primary attack would. E.G. at Range 3 against something with 0 natural defense dice, TLT is equivalent to 3.62 primary attack dice (the next row down on your table) instead of 3.5.

 

Better than 3.62. That's based on how well it performs against the same number of evade dice. 

TLT has mean damage of 1.75 against 0 defense. 3 dice has a mean damage of 1.17 against 1 defense, and 4 dice has a mean damage of 1.65 against 1 defense. That means at that range the TLT is equivalent to 4.21 normal attack dice (3 + (1.75 - 1.17) / (1.65-1.17)).
Edited by keyboardr

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I am not a TLT hater, but wouldn't those numbers mean then that a 6 point Twin Laser Turret is, in average, just a little better or equal at range 3 than a Heavy Laser Cannon turret, for example, with Outrider at a cost of 7 for the cannon plus 5 for the title?

I know that the HLC turret can deal up to 4 crits in a single lucky attack with rerolls or other abilities while the TLT will land 2 damage tops, but I am just talking here in average.

 

Of course, we cannot look at those point costs in vacuum, but we must take into consideration which ships can actually equip these upgrades. I would say that the TLT is "undercosted" only because the devs perhaps think that the Y-Wing, HWK and K-Wing (the three ships able to equip this upgrade) are overcosted, by defect in the case of the Y-Wing and HWK, and by design in the case of the K-Wing.

 

If we compare with another ship that can equip an upgrade to get a Range 1-3 3 dice turret, the Punishing One, the upgrade from 2 to 3 attack is costed at 12 points. That is in the same ballpark as the HLC+Outrider combo. In comparison the K-Wing needs to pay only 6 points to get a similar or slightly more effective, in average, TLT. That is a difference of around 6 points to achieve similar results (I repeat, in average).

So can we determine from this that the devs consider the K-Wing to be 6 points overcosted, by design?

What about the Y-Wing or HWK? TLT is worse on them because it leaves a range 1 hole where the ship cannot attack, unlike the K-Wing. So the TLT is not exactly the same value as it is on the K-Wing, perhaps indicating that the devs think that the Y-Wing and HWK, while being overcosted, they are so by strictly less than 6 points.

 

Does this make any sense to anyone other than me? :)

My point is that the TLT is cheaper than it should be, yes. But it is because it is for ships that are intentionally or unintentionally overcosted.

Edited by Azrapse

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I am not a TLT hater, but wouldn't those numbers mean then that a 6 point Twin Laser Turret is, in average, just a little better or equal at range 3 than a Heavy Laser Cannon turret, for example, with Outrider at a cost of 7 for the cannon plus 5 for the title?

 

Without modifiers, the HLC should do about 12% - 18% more damage than the TLT.

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I am not a TLT hater, but wouldn't those numbers mean then that a 6 point Twin Laser Turret is, in average, just a little better or equal at range 3 than a Heavy Laser Cannon turret, for example, with Outrider at a cost of 7 for the cannon plus 5 for the title?

 

A HLC is also a secondary weapon, so the comparison is back to ~3.6 dice for the TLT versus 4 dice for the HLC. So... the TLT at 6 points is a little bit worse than the HLC at 7 points, which sounds pretty reasonable.

 

Of course, the TLT can fire outside arc so it's much easier to get consistent value.

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What I do not see in the above analysis is the fact that TLT fires twice per round.

 

This has the added benefit of stripping focus and evade tokens from defender ships in the first attack, in order to have a better chance to do damage on the second attack.

 

The secondary weapon negating range 3 bonus is also a factor. Sure there is a range 1 hole, but with multiple TLT that can easily be overcome.

 

As an example: Soontir Fel can nullify a HLC quite easily. He can arc dodge, use his focus and evade to cancel the attack dice that are rolled.

 

Against TLT it is much harder to hide at range 1 and arc dodging is out. The focus and evade can be stripped off on attack 1, meaning he will likely take a damage on attack 2.

 

This is compounded if there are multiple TLTs as the first 1-2 can strip him of tokens while 3 and 4 finish him off.

 

Likewise a decimator can be tooled to have 1 evade and 1 agility. Range 3 can give it a second agility against primary weapons.

 

Against TLT only one hit needs to get through per attack, so it will most likely take 7-8 damage per round from 4 x TLT Y-wings.

That means it is dead in 2 rounds, 3 at the most. In response it might drop 1 Y-Wing if it gets full range 1 attacks per turn.

 

As an aside, is there any reason why the imperials do not have a ship with a secondary turret slot?

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This has the added benefit of stripping focus and evade tokens from defender ships in the first attack, in order to have a better chance to do damage on the second attack.

 

This is a two-edged sword that can often nullify itself. It also strips your own focus and TL tokens, and you're not likely to get as good a return on them. I couldn't run the odds for all possible scenarios, so I went with the unmodified odds. I did mention that it might be worth it if they have more tokens to spend than you.

 

The secondary weapon negating range 3 bonus is also a factor. Sure there is a range 1 hole, but with multiple TLT that can easily be overcome.

 

Another two-edged sword. You don't have the chance at a range 1 bonus (or a range 1 anything, for that matter). That's also why I ran the percentages for both 3 and 4 attack dice and 0-6 defense dice. For any scenario you can see what works best. As mentioned in an earlier comment, range 3 TLT gives much better mean damage than 3 attack, and even slightly better than 4 attack. HLC, on the other hand, also negates that range bonus and performs better than TLT at range 3. The main point wasn't that TLTs aren't good, just that they don't have any particular advantage over low evade ships compared to high evade ships in the long run. They have similar damage drop-offs to other attacks (although their hit % drops slower).

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As an example: Soontir Fel can nullify a HLC quite easily. He can arc dodge, use his Focus and Evade to cancel the attack dice that are rolled.

 

Against TLT it is much harder to hide at range 1 and arc dodging is out. The focus and evade can be stripped off on attack 1, meaning he will likely take a damage on attack 2.

 

This is compounded if there are multiple TLTs as the first 1-2 can strip him of tokens while 3 and 4 finish him off.

 

I find your lack of faith in his lordship Baron Fel disturbing.

 

Soontir has possibly the easiest time of anyone at staying inside range 1 of any of the three TLT carriers, and arc dodging turns his Autothrusters on, which make it quite possible to dodge a TLT attack without spending a token, or at worst spending just the one (out of up to three). Especially if we're talking about the second, potentially unmodified attack.

 

If your Soontir is being attacked by all 4 enemy TLTs, I would humbly suggest that you've dun goofed.

 

As an aside, is there any reason why the imperials do not have a ship with a secondary turret slot?

 

The obvious answer, I suppose, is that they've simply not yet been given a ship which could logically be given a turret slot. The only one that could theoretically have had it was the Decimator, and with a 3-dice PWT it would have been rather pointless.

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I think that people are saying that the damage done by tlt versus low agility is very predictable. Firing at a decimator, for example, the nature of the attack will cut down the deviation in numbers of turns to kill.

However, yes, tlt is a high attack dice weapon, which tend to perform more efficiently against high agility defenders. I agree with you there.

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It would be funny when ships zoom into range one of a TLT Ywing and forget that they happen to be in arc of the primary because they were so obsessed with the 'donut hole'.

Never seen it happen, but newbs maybe. Watch out for that two dice HWK attack!

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Against a good player you're only going to "donut hole" one of their multiple TLT carriers. So Soontir is going to be eating 4-6 TLT shots even if he donuts one ship.

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How are you dealing with dice modification here?

 

His numbers are for no dice modification at all. Here's the graphical version.

 

 

TLT_with_0_attack_focus_vs_0_defense_foc

 

Here's a few more with action economies. This is just a teaser until I get around to publishing a more comprehensive TLT analysis after Worlds.  :)

 

TLT_with_0_attack_focus_vs_1_defense_foc

 

TLT_with_1_attack_focus_vs_0_defense_foc

 

TLT_with_1_attack_focus_vs_1_defense_foc

 

And here's some vs AutoThrusters.

 

TLT_with_0_attack_focus_vs_AutoThrusters

 

TLT_with_0_attack_focus_vs_AutoThrusters

 

TLT_with_1_attack_focus_vs_AutoThrusters

 

TLT_with_1_attack_focus_vs_AutoThrusters

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I get the feeling TLT is a strong card but people will adapt to it in time. especially considering the cheap ships that can take one all drive like boats

With Unhinged Astromech (and R2), Y-Wings have a dial that is on par or better than that of most ships. There are only a few ships in the game with a better dial.

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