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Deadwolf

Math Assault: Avg damage for the weapons (expansion inc)

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I have been meaning to do this for a while and with the expansion weapons being revealed, I wanted to do the math and share how all the weapons compare to each other.

General Notes:

- I am using the frequency*damage formula, it is not completely accurate as the math calculates surge and damage separately, whereas they are linked on the die. The point of this post is to compare weapons to each other.

- All numbers are versus a black die (as most imperials figures use it).

- Accuracy is not factored in. I will point out however, that weapons with blue dice do better when shooting from outside of optimum range. (Ex. While the Carbine generally beats the A280, the A280 wins at range 5 and 6).

- The math is for a single target, going for the most damage possible (except in the cleave section).

- I am not listing all of the mod combinations, just the most effective ones.

- This is based on a single attack. Since some mods are exhausted, mods that don't exhaust are sometimes superior to ones that do,when you attack twice. (Ex: Gaarkan's Vibro-ax w/ hilt vs Plasteel Staff w/ haft)

Starting Weapons:

Vintage Blaster (Jyn) = 1.83

w/ Tactical Display=2.13

Repeating Blaster (Biv Bodhrik)=1.83

Modified Blaster (Saska Teft)=1.79

w/ TD=2.405

Holdout Blaster (Gideon)=1.61

Infantry Rifle (Fenn)=1.58

w/ TD=1.94

Longblaster (Mak)=1.41

w/ TD=2.24

Vibro-ax (Gaarkhan)=2.10

w/ balanced hilt=2.33

Plasteel Staff (Diala)=1.43

w/ extended haft=2.26

Tier 1:

DH-17= 2.13

w/ TC & marksman barrel=2.46

w/ Plasma Cell & marksman barrel=3.04 (Tier 2)

E-11=2.17

w/ TC=2.89

w/ TC & PC=4.31(T2)

DL-44=2.20

w/ TC=3.13

w/ TC & PC=4.25 (T2; Spread barrel is also good here)

Tatooine Hunting Rifle (Twin Shadows) - see Special Section

DDC Defender(Hoth)=1.43 (possible x3; Marksman Barrel is assumed)

With Jyn's gunslinger & DL-44 this has an avg of 2.62x3.

Vibroblade=2.04

w/ hilt=2.79

Armored Gauntlets=2.55

Gaffi Stick=2.333

w/ High-Impact Guard=3.62(T2)

Tier 2:

A280=2.3

w/ TC=3.78

w/ PC=3.17

w/ TC & PC=4.42

EE-3 Carbine (Twin Shadows)=2.71

w/ TC=3.71

w/ PC=3.55

w/ TC & PC=4.71

434 Deathhammer=3.214;

w/ spread barrel=4.214

T-21=3.222

BD-1 Vibro-Ax=3.0;

w/hilt & guard=4.86

Shock emitters(T3) with either hilt or haft gives similar dmg.

Vibro Knucklers=3.32

Tier 3:

DXR-6=3.39

DLT-19 (Twin Shadows)=3.16

w/ PC=4.04

w/ Disruption Cell=4.02

I ignored the focus surge because in most cases you are giving up 2 dmg to get it, which isn't really worth it, since only 1 out of the 6 sides of the green die can give more than 2 dmg. (But would be good if the target is dieing anyway)

Sporting Blaster=3.43

w/ PC=3.97

w/ DC=4.17

Pulse Cannon=4.24

w/ PC=5.02

w/ DC=5.08

Force Pike = 3.742

w/ guard=4.82

Special:

Shu Yen's Lightsaber=2.64

w/ hilt=3.78

Tatooine Hunting Rifle: For the math on this, I calculated the total avg damage over 2 shots in a single round (accounting for TC only being used once) with the first shot prioritizing focus, and the 2nd shot prioritizing damage and it came so about the same total avg dmg of the longblaster with the same conditions. There is some value to be had when your first shot is already focused (like from a previous shot or jeswandi training), giving a much greater change to get another focus, but that is hard to analyze.

Cleave Weapons:

In the previous columns, I analyzed single target damage only. In this column, I am counting cleave as 1 dmg as if a 2nd enemy is adjacent to your hero. The numbers are the total avg damage over 2 targets.

Vibro-ax w/ hilt=3.536

Armored Gauntlets=2.92

Vibroblade w/ hilt=3.96

Vibro Knucklers=3.47

BD-1 Vibro-ax w/ hilt & haft=5.69

Shu Yen's Lightsaber w/ hilt=5.23

Twin Shadow Cards: https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/184232-twin-shadows-has-anyone-played/

DDC Defender: https://images-cdn.fantasyflightgames.com/filer_public/f3/ff/f3ff7445-c9e2-41db-ab13-a6199e09a0e6/ddc-defender.png

Credit to Emerald Days for his probability Charts: https://emeralddays.wordpress.com/

If you wish to know the avg damage on any mod combinations I didn't do or a specific weapon vs the white die, let me know.

Edited by Deadwolf

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Heres what I got doing something similar with a monte carlo sim.  I inlucde the mode, becuase that matters most for a single dice roll.  The following are all range 1 vs a black dice.  I have range through 6 and vs white as well, but I haven't finished working the mods into the sim.

 

 

meandamage modedamage percentMode vs weapon

5.237202372 5 0.32796 black forcePike

4.9962499625 5 0.34306 black pulseCannon

4.8514085141 5 0.2867 black dxr6

4.7160371604 5 0.40852 black deathhammer434

4.0023200232 4 0.39288 black bd1VibroBlade

3.8361583616 4 0.30245 black t21

3.7112771128 4 0.40854 black shuYensLightsaber

3.7086370864 4 0.33361 black supportingBlaster

3.6950169502 4 0.40164 black armoredGauntlets

3.6948769488 4 0.40175 black vibroKnucklers

3.69099691 4 0.35248 black dl44

3.6684266843 4 0.43143 black e11

3.666596666 4 0.42965 black a280

3.3358933589 4 0.52848 black vibroBlade

3.3288932889 4 0.52554 black vintageBlaster

3.0843408434 3 0.46493 black infantryRifle

2.9969799698 3 0.38648 black vibroAx

2.9285492855 3 0.42676 black platesteelStaff

2.9283892839 3 0.42504 black dh17

2.8138481385 3 0.45256 black longblaster

2.0016600166 2 0.38584 black holdoutBlaster

Edited by gonbewilson

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Sexy! Thank you.

 

Vibro-Axe is missing from the cleave section.

 

If you feel like it: disruption cell on the defender?

I'll add Vibro-ax to the original post, the difference between the cleave value and the single target value is actually larger than I thought.

The defender with disruption cell (I did red/green) came to 2.5 (×3=7.5). That's not bad, but most of the Tier 3 items do beat it.

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Average doesn't mean a whole lot because a lot of the distributions are not Gaussian.  A gaussian distribution would mean you are just as likely to get damage below the average as above the average.

 

For example, red dice have 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3 for an average of 2.16.  But I'm more statistically likely to get a 1 or 2 than a 3 (granted one of the 2's has a surge).

 

 

 

My friend wrote a dice roller in Python that will brute-force dice rolls and show you the statistics.  It will give you a CDF table, meaning on the left it will show damage, and in % it will show you the likelihood of getting that much damage or higher.  It will also show for each damage the probability of getting 0, 1, 2, or 3 surges along the top.

 

I usually look at the expected damage for the 50% point.  You can enter the defense dice and simulate blocks as well (i.e. enter 'brgw' for attack with  Blue, Red, Green, vs a defense of White... or 'brywl' for a Blue, Red, Yellow vs a defense of Black and White)

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4DqkngPkYICdHFpLUowVUI5Tzg/view?usp=sharing

 

You must install Python 3.3 to run it, since it's just a script.

 

 

You can put in surges, it will use range surges before damage surges, so if you don't want to simulate that don't enter range surges.  The damage surges it will use in order, it will not simulate multiple surge types.  If your weapon has surge: +2 and surge: +1, enter damage surges as '21' and it will use them in order

 

Enter range as 0 when asked if you purely want to simulate damage.  Otherwise it will also simulate whether you have enough range to hit and count it as 0 damage in the CDF appropriately.

 

 

Edit:  The CDF shows the probability of getting the amount of damage or greater (i.e. 0 damage is 100% probable... if you have a red dice 1 damage is 100% probable).

Edited by jnad83

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