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Cim2

The risk from the Dust deck

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I wondered how dangerous Quachil Uttaus actually was during the game, since they'd seemed to be one of the easier ones outside final combat. The first player will survive 7 turns but not 8 half the time, if they don't spend clues. The mean survival time - since there's no upper limit - is going to be higher than the median. In perhaps 1 in 100 average length (20-25 turn) games, no-one gets devoured at all, in fact. More likely, there'll be two or three Investigators devoured by the Dust deck.

Median survival vs Quachil: 7 turns. Mean: 9.16 turns. (assuming no clues)

With that being the case, it doesn't usually seem worth spending clues to prolong an Investigators life, unless you're on the third deck already and absolutely need them alive just one more turn - it probably won't change the total number of Investigators devoured during the game.

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Still don't have IH (come on, get here already!), but looking at the graph and from reading about the Dust deck, I assume turn 3 devouring would mean 1st turn the card that removes the 1st deck is drawn and similar card from the 2nd deck? That happened, I'd just kiss that investigator's ass good-bye (puckering up a bit more it was Mary, Mandy or Trish partido_risa.gif ; maybe Akachi too).

Nice graph definately, I always tend to look at games with a rough estimate of 20 turns (nothing to back that up with).

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Well he's definitely much tougher against smaller groups, that's for sure. Both his combat and out of combat abilities are a lot easier to take when there are more bodies to take the hits...

Thanks for doing that graph! Your analysis has added some substance to my vague notions of how to approach the "dust deck". 

If the first player ignored the dust deck and was able to get The Messenger in time, then it would REALLY help matters because he would not get devoured, but the dust decks would be re-shuffled!

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Just played against Quachil Uttaus.  17 Mythos game with 3 investigators devoured by the Dust deck.  One investigator lasted exactly 3 turns. Worst luck ever...

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